Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712808778238705679

...he comes up with 2.5M max capacity before CT (and only gets THERE by using significantly higher max production for Berlin and Austin than even Tesla claims they have)... and then says there's "plenty of production capacity" for 50% growth in 2024 with CT figured in.

1.8 * 1.5= 2.7 million.

He seems to then figure CT gets you to 2.75-2.85.

Anybody here take seriously the idea they're gonna make at least 250k CTs in 2024?

(or that they're gonna hit max capacity at every plant the entire year on every other vehicle for that matter- including significantly more at both Berlin and Austin than Tesla even has per Teslas own info)

(which even if they did would just barely hit 50%, not have "plenty" of capacity for it)

I don't think it matters significantly if 2024 is 40% unit growth vs 50%, the 50% goal was always stated as averaged over years-- but the mental gymnastics people keep going through to somehow get to 50% in '24 is... dizzying.

 

[uscbucsfan]

...he comes up with 2.5M max capacity before CT... and then says there's "plenty of production capacity" for 50% growth in 2024.

1.8 * 1.5= 2.7 million.

He seems to then figure CT gets you to 2.75-2.85.

Anybody here take seriously the idea they're gonna make at least 250k CTs in 2024?

(or that they're gonna hit max capacity at every plant the entire year on every other vehicle for that matter- including 25k MORE than Teslas own stated max for Berlin?)

(which even if they did would just barely hit 50%, not have "plenty" of capacity for it)

I don't think it matters significantly if 2024 is 40% unit growth vs 50%, the 50% goal was always stated as averaged over years-- but the mental gymnastics people keep going through to somehow get to 50% in '24 is... dizzying.

No. Elon stressed how slow the ramp will be on the CT. I'd be surprised to see over 150k CTs next year. There's almost no chance they hit 5,000 CTs right out of the gate.

 

[Fred42]

This is even bigger that Marry Barra's amazing contributions! /s

Biden administration to announce $7billion hydrogen hub grants​

Freud strikes. If your wish comes true, I'll attend the wedding if tickets are cheap enough.

 

[Electroman]

Apparently some people don't know the discussion is banned. Maybe you should advertise.

You need to give a warning.. I spilled coffee all over my screen.

 

[elasalle]

...he comes up with 2.5M max capacity before CT (and only gets THERE by using significantly higher max production for Berlin and Austin than even Tesla claims they have)... and then says there's "plenty of production capacity" for 50% growth in 2024 with CT figured in.

1.8 * 1.5= 2.7 million.

He seems to then figure CT gets you to 2.75-2.85.

Anybody here take seriously the idea they're gonna make at least 250k CTs in 2024?

(or that they're gonna hit max capacity at every plant the entire year on every other vehicle for that matter- including significantly more at both Berlin and Austin than Tesla even has per Teslas own info)

(which even if they did would just barely hit 50%, not have "plenty" of capacity for it)

I don't think it matters significantly if 2024 is 40% unit growth vs 50%, the 50% goal was always stated as averaged over years-- but the mental gymnastics people keep going through to somehow get to 50% in '24 is... dizzying.

250K would be too much in 1 year, but they could ramp the Semi as well. Any extra could go back to MY etc too. cheers!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

What's the issue with this? The grants state that the hydrogen creation must be clean, i.e. not be made using power from oil/coal, etc.

The issue is that 'clean' hydrogen nets only about 7-10% EROI. If you're going to allocate capital, you'd pick lithium batteries for energy storage.

Energy return on investment - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Cheers!

 

[ggies07]

The issue is that 'clean' hydrogen nets only about 7-10% EROI. If you are going to allocate capital, you'd pick lithium batteries.

Energy return on investment - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Cheers!

Right, I think the overall consensus is that we overbuild renewables first, then take that extra clean energy and use it to make clean hydrogen...

 

[SOULPEDL]

What's the issue with this?

The grants state that the hydrogen creation must be clean, i.e. not be made using power from oil/coal, etc.

It's not talking about consumer vehicles, but things like fertilizer, energy storage, ships, aircraft, and petrochemicals from what I skimmed.

Consider this very carefully... H is atomic number 1 - size matters whenever leaks are of a concern.

Spoiler: Molecule Sizes Compared (Approximate)

Gasoline: (We already know how gas can leak on older cars or equipment)

Methane: (Natural Gas)

Hydrogen:

Better not come to Az. Seals die quickly here.
Also, people could just shoot Hydrogen storage for some excitement. Electrical Transformers had their time.
Not to mention the round-trip energy efficiency argument, I'll leave that for the others.

 

[Usain]

You need to give a warning.. I spilled coffee all over my screen.

I should give a warning? You mean I should advertise?

 

[jerry33]

Right, I think the overall consensus is that we overbuild renewables first, then take that extra clean energy and use it to make clean hydrogen...

That appears to be a pretty silly consensus because you'll use about 5X energy to produce 1X hydrogen. Only the fossil fuel companies like this kind of negative return.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Consider this very carefully... H is atomic number 1 - size matters whenever leaks are of a concern.

Spoiler: Molecule Sizes Compared (Approximate)

Gasoline: (We already know how gas can leak on older cars or equipment)

View attachment 981904

Methane: (Natural Gas)

View attachment 981905
Hydrogen:

View attachment 981903
Better not come to Az. Seals die quickly here.
Also, people could just shoot Hydrogen storage for some excitement. Electrical Transformers had their time.
Not to mention the round-trip energy efficiency argument, I'll leave that for the others.

That's really your argument against it? It's like being scared of Nuclear. It's much better for the environment and can be much cheaper.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Anyone heard of Gray Hydrogen?

"Gray hydrogen, for example, is made using natural gas in a process that uses steam to break apart methane molecules to produce hydrogen and carbon dioxide. This is the most common form of hydrogen fuel available, according to the World Economic Forum."

No wonder Joe Manchin is on board with 10K jobs for WV claimed from the Bill. And how do we create steam in West Virginia? Coal comes to mind.

(Edit: The bill requires use of clean energy... I didn't see that part. But why is Joe pleased then?)

 

[SOULPEDL]

That's really your argument against it? It's like being scared of Nuclear. It's much better for the environment and can be much cheaper.

No it is not, I left a disclaimer on the real reason (efficiency), and Artful Dodger picked it up on cue.

 

[wipster]

Couldn't resist 255.15 for 25 chairs

So you find chairs in your couches? Fascinating...

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's really your argument against it? It's like being scared of Nuclear. It's much better for the environment and can be much cheaper.

Hydrogen can not be stored long term due to the size of the H2 molecule (every material is porous to hydrogen). Hydrogen must be consumed shortly after it is produced, typically less than 24 hrs. That is why current hydrogen filling stations use natural gas (methane) as a source stock, and produce hydrogen at the moment of delivery. It's a terrible waste of resources, and a fool's errand for vehicles. You'd be better off charging batteries w. renewables, or just burning the methane directly for ICE vehicles.

 

[UncaNed]

The issue is that 'clean' hydrogen nets only about 7-10% EROI. If you are going to allocate capital, you'd pick lithium batteries.

Energy return on investment - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Cheers!

Exactly. Hydrogen is absurdly impractical and not cost effective. Also, minor inconveniences like:

and:

Also, I just reported my own post- I just wasn't thinking about all the replies- and I'm requesting MODS kindly move them and my original hydrogen post these replies to it's proper thread, didn't mean to make more work.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So you find chairs in your couches? Fascinating...

My source - It’s a classic here.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Exactly. Hydrogen is absurdly impractical and not cost effective. Also, minor inconveniences like:
View attachment 981912
and:

Also, I just reported my own post- I just wasn't thinking about all the replies- and I'm requesting MODS kindly move them and my original hydrogen post these replies to it's proper thread, didn't mean to make more work.

They are using Gray Hydrogen (from Methane) in that video! I can assure you the steam needed for this reaction aint coming from the grid. This is nuts, but no surprise.

 

[ggies07]

That appears to be a pretty silly consensus because you'll use about 5X energy to produce 1X hydrogen. Only the fossil fuel companies like this kind of negative return.

hmm...I'm not saying overbuild for the purpose of clean hydrogen, it just becomes a side benefit. Here is an old article:

Why 200 per cent renewables would be better for Australia than 100 per cent

Energy Transition Hub report models suggests huge advantages of aiming for 200 per cent renewable energy target, rather than just 100 per cent renewables.

reneweconomy.com.au

 

[Blue horseshoe]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712900210735649100

Slightly off topic but Lex Fridman will do another pod soon with Elon. Looking forward to listening to them talk