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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Couldn't resist 255.15 for 25 chairs ;)

... and back down to the MA(50). ;)

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Alas, even that 15-minute lag has been axed in fhe final ruling. From the Financial Times:

“The final rule dropped initial plans for publishing deal details within 15 minutes of trades being struck. Data will instead be published the next morning and individual loan amounts will only be published 20 business days after the deal was reported.”
 
My understanding is that they would have 15 minutes to report. 15 minutes is an eternity in computer time. I suspect this was decided upon by all the major players because it sounds good to the uninformed, but in practice will not make a difference. 15 seconds to a minute might actually help.

SEC.gov | SEC Adopts Rule to Increase Transparency Into Short Selling and Amendment to CAT NMS Plan for Purposes of Short Sale Data Collection

 
Alas, even that 15-minute lag has been axed in fhe final ruling. From the Financial Times:

“The final rule dropped initial plans for publishing deal details within 15 minutes of trades being struck. Data will instead be published the next morning and individual loan amounts will only be published 20 business days after the deal was reported.”
..and this is proof that self-regulation still remains the rule, that the SEC cannot effectively challenge.
Anyway, even if they had continuous direct reporting it would make no difference because the SEC will have neither the skills nor the technologies to do anything about it, nor even the will, much less the firm regulatory authorities.

After all the only really useful control would be near continuous time and resource intensive publicity and investigation;
Those, we all know, are only effective when the 'sound bites' can present what seems to be a morally offensive position, such that politicians would clamor for punishment.

The 'sound bites' that work are accusing Tesla of racial discrimination from a non-employee presented as an employee because he was stationed in a Tesla plant (skip the truth and go for sound bite), accuse Tesla of battery fires and ignore ICE and so on. Those work because there is an easy public ire. Short selling is difficult to understand for the initiated and seems to be a victimless crime if there was one That never can command public ire, except from Elizabeth Warren, who knows exactly what it is but also cannot explain it to the general public.

Every time we rant on this subject we are offended but, as I know from personal efforts, even Wall Street CEOs of the entities that do this business so lucratively haven't much of a clue. That knowledge remains firmly ensconced with the techies who design the systems and operate them.

Report away, if they must, but nothing can or will change the system now.

How I wish this post were hyperbole or just cynical and/or factually wrong. Sadly, it is not.
 
Excellent X thread by Larry Goldberg.
I'll admit to being one who has been hoping for a small stock buyback. But it's hard to find faults with Larry's analysis. This plus the lingering threat of tough economic times lasting longer than has been forecast (and Elon explicitly stating he sees the same) leads me to think the possibility of a stock buyback in the near future is very low.

It’s a zero chance. A stock buyback if for a company that has run out ideas to invest money in useful ways. Tesla has like 50 irons irons in the fire that will make good use of cash in the near future and uncertain economic times always reward those with cash reserves. Buybacks and dividends are a sign that maybe the company is no longer worth investing in for growth.
 
Battery Day was like Sept 2020 ... so aren't we (in many ways) already 3 years late based on initial assumptions/expectations from battery day? ... so looks like we are finally turning the corner ...
MY, Semi both supposed to take advantage of the 4680 ramp, .....
but 4680 ramp seems to be coming ahead of the upcoming CT ramp.
At Battery Day, I don't recall them discussing any production plans beginning immediately.

So if an event 3 years ago was projecting future start dates for production, how can those dates be 3 years late?
 
Hydrogen can not be stored long term due to the size of the H2 molecule (every material is porous to hydrogen). Hydrogen must be consumed shortly after it is produced, typically less than 24 hrs. That is why current hydrogen filling stations use natural gas (methane) as a source stock, and produce hydrogen at the moment of delivery. It's a terrible waste of resources, and a fool's errand for vehicles. You'd be better off charging batteries w. renewables, or just burning the methane directly for ICE vehicles.

The small size of the H2 molecule not only can easily escape, making leaks problematic to control, it actually can diffuse in to commonly used materials (such as steel, aluminum, nickel, etc...), causing structural changes that can compromise it. Things such as stainless or other alloys are less susceptible, but still can be affected over time.

It's why parts used for H2 systems (tanks, valves, pipes, etc...) "expire" after a set time and must be replaced. Not fun (and also expensive) for things like vehicles and large infrastructure items...

See also "Hydrogen embrittlement"
 
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It’s a zero chance. A stock buyback if for a company that has run out ideas to invest money in useful ways. Tesla has like 50 irons irons in the fire that will make good use of cash in the near future and uncertain economic times always reward those with cash reserves. Buybacks and dividends are a sign that maybe the company is no longer worth investing in for growth.
I mean not really. Not that I think Tesla should be doing buybacks now, but the go-to comparison here will be Apple buying back stock since at least 2013.
 
We'll just have to disagree on this then. I believe that private and public APIs have completely different security risks. Private APIs present hardly any attack surface at all, as it's just the app that can be reasonably attacked. But once you have a public API and external developers, it gets vastly more difficult to control access.

Anyway, don't want to get into the weeds on this. Just pointing out that it's not just a magical revenue opportunity. In my opinion, the chance of serious external attack problems becomes much higher.
Several subsequent replies already, but given it's the weekend , chiming in...

It was mentioned already that this was indeed an "undocumented" API (not private per se). And "security through obscurity" doesn't work. Any Black Hat with enough sophistication to provide a tangible threat would already be capable of sniffing the API calls.

That's not to say that now making it public won't entice some script-kiddie to bang on it, but provided the security architecture is sound (and I trust that Tesla's is), it's likely only to be a nuisance to Tesla's security infrastructure... not a real threat.

So while the API being published introduces non-zero additional risk, it's also nothing significant IMO.
 
I mean not really. Not that I think Tesla should be doing buybacks now, but the go-to comparison here will be Apple buying back stock since at least 2013.
It would be were AAPL to be a comparable integrated manufacturer as is AAPL The giant difference is between integrated manufacturing and internal product developments, sales and service without eight extensive manufacturing nor extensive owned distribution. As a long term shareholder in both I understand the value of a controlled ecosystem with benefits as subscriptions and sales after sale, including software in both continuous product updates and aftermarket sales.

Fundamentally AAPL is far less capital intensive than is TSLA which has extensive inflexibly located infrastructure. The result is that TSLA needs, and has, a massively greater capital and financial reserve than does AAPL. AAPL system maturity allows them to maintain rising dividends without any material negative effects. TSLA, in contrast, has largely inflexible manufacturing infrastructure so cannot easily move from, say, China, to ,say, Vietnam as a manufacturing locus for a given product while AAPL can do that, and has, with ~18 months from decision to execution.

Those differences are largely the reasons why dividends are not in the cards anytime soon for TSLA.
In the meantime I'm quite pleased with my income from AAPL dividends.