Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

I don't see how we ever needed 20M capacity, due to Robotaxi's ability to increase utilization 4x - in theory.
I too saw it as a convenient comparison with peak ICE sales. Not a hard number but a dynamic target.
If anything, we are sorely reminded just how many cars are made... annually!

I always assumed that those who don't currently have transport options om developing counties will eventually be part of the Robotaxi market.

Currently those in developing countries are solving part of the problem with 2 and 3 wheel electric transport options.

I do think 20M will be very hard, but I also think that so far Tesla has not reached their peak rate of production expansion, and that when all the ducks line up, they can expand rapidly.

 

[mongo]

I guess I wonder why he felt the need to say it. NO new vehicle line, particularly one of a brand new product, is going to be profitable. Takes time to ramp, to work out the supply stream, sort out manufacturing and design issues. No reasonable person would expect that product to be profitable at start of production, any more than a new factory would. I would like to know if Berlin and Austin are now in the black.

Model Y was profitable in its first quarter...

 

[Artful Dodger]

LOL!

BREAKING: TeslaBoomMama drops the F-BOMB | "Biker" with Herbert

Regulatory Credits: 'Effen Half a Billion Dollars!'

 

[Artful Dodger]

Cybertruck - confirmed 800V architecture (slide deck page 8). There were rumors of 1000V, but this puts that to bed.

Haha, no it doesn't. The battery cell working voltage is from 3.0v to 4.2v so that's 800v +/- 33%

 

[2daMoon]

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla buys Rivian... FROM JEFF BEZOS

FTFY

 

[GhostSkater]

Tesla has a rich tradition of "____ turned out to be a lot harder than we originally thought"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now they might have one line dedicated to 2170 and another to 4680, they have to put 4680s somewhere, Cybertruck will eat cells yes, but not until it ramps, and it's way too many cells to keep storing, you can't just put them outside in containers or on the floor like the castings lol

Did you check that assumption?

Inside look at the Tesla GFTX 4680 Battery Cell Storage - Reddit (2023-10-12)

Those racks look pretty substantial to me. Remember the storage spaces needs to be sized to contain at least 2 weeks of production at the planned terminal run rate. Technically, that's lots.

 

[2daMoon]

I'll tell you what has fundamentally changed. Anything to do with making more profit than the previous year.

But if you are talking about Revenue, sure that hasn't fundamentally changed over the past year. Which is a good sign, right? RIGHT?

I detect an ID-10-T error with this attempt at logic...

 

[Gigapress]

Sunday I was at a Tesla showroom for a local owners club event. While there I offered to help walk in people with any questions. I spent about an hour with a couple that had a long list of questions. Many were directly linked to FUD on range, cost, and reliability. Not a single question or comment on politics or Elon's X posts. When I left, they were going out to test drive a Model Y.

We can all share our opinions and thoughts. I recommend getting out and talking to people and maybe help out a bit in a showroom and see how it goes. Granted, anyone that hates Elon is not likely to walk into a showroom. And while it doesn't change the situation, I think anyone deciding not to buy the safest vehicles on the planet for their family because their feelings are hurt over Elon's X posts may not be wise.

People in a Tesla showroom are probably not a representative sample of the overall population though. They already decided to go check out Tesla with some curiosity or interest in buying. Maybe people who are annoyed with the politics are not going to the showroom to shop in the first place.

 

[insaneoctane]

I don't think it's only interest rates to blame, unfortunately.

Why Auto Manufacturer Downgrades Are Not Yet a Death Blow

While rising interest rates represent headwinds for consumers, the data doesn’t demonstrate that it will completely kill auto purchases.

www.barchart.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

125k annual CT production target and Nov 30 delivery date for Cybertruck is good news!

Imma take a 'win' on this one (along with 1 other; you know who you are)

Naw, make it good for 76 years** and hold the delivery event on Nov 27th, 2023...

View attachment 975892

Cheers to the Ultra-longs!
**pro-rated, of course.

 

[Buckminster]

The livestreamed earnings call had some audio cut outs.

This newly posted audio call doesn't have any audio cut outs. Elon's comments about further reducing COGS at the beginning sound promising (this part was cut off during the livestream):

Please don't make me sit through that again!

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla has a rich tradition of "____ turned out to be a lot harder than we originally thought"

So does Ford - ask them how many EVs they’re selling and for how much profit.

So does GM - ask Mary how well her EV division is running with current products and future ones.

So does Lucid, and Rivian, and BMW, and…

 

[Artful Dodger]

Speaking of things looking up: Is This The End Of Naked Short Selling? | ZeroHedge. This could be the start of something BIG.

Excerpts from the article: (published on ZeroHedge yesterday)

15 Companies That Could Be Poised For A Short Squeeze​

​

1. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)​

"Tesla, the trailblazing electric car company, has consistently attracted the attention of short-sellers. For three consecutive months up to August, Tesla was the most shorted among large-cap U.S. stocks, as per data from a securities lending firm. Short-sellers bet on stock prices falling, and with Tesla's share price often exhibiting volatility, it presents both opportunities and challenges. This dynamic was evident when the company's stock surged by over 5% after hints about the potential of Tesla's Dojo supercomputer came to light.​

​

"Various strategies underline the short positions against Tesla. Data revealed diverse approaches taken by investors against Tesla, as disclosed to regulatory bodies. Some investors have adopted a mixed stance, maintaining both long and short positions, while others have sought to encapsulate the positions of various funds. Additionally, some firms aim to negate market risks by balancing the impact of rising and falling prices across different asset categories.​

​

"Public sentiments and reactions have further added to the narrative. Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, is renowned for his candid remarks. He didn't hold back when commenting on the short position that Microsoft's co-founder, Bill Gates, took against Tesla. Musk emphasized that the maximum yield from a short position on Tesla would be realized only if Tesla faced bankruptcy a bold reflection of his faith in the company's trajectory. Hedge funds have notably increased their short positions on U.S. stocks, reaching significant levels in recent times. Yet, the unpredictability tied to Tesla's stock, highlighted by the experiences of various hedge fund managers, underscores the intricate dance of conviction and market dynamics when it comes to short selling"​

 

[Drumheller]

So what was the purpose of setting up a presentation at GigaTexas?

 

[EQC_]

So does Ford - ask them how many EVs they’re selling and for how much profit.

So does GM - ask Mary how well her EV division is running with current products and future ones.

So does Lucid, and Rivian, and BMW, and…

Perhaps a slight adjustment to the original statement:

"Tesla has a rich tradition of HONESTLY ADMITTING that "____ turned out to be a lot harder than we originally thought" "

...as opposed to the other manufacturers, that will publicly blame everything except themselves when they drastically adjust goals and timelines.

...and, as opposed to other manufacturers, that present radical ideas and concepts that they never intend to actually develop.

Oddly, it's Tesla that is accused of "breaking promises" when it takes them 5 years to get to mass producing an honest copy of a radical concept car everybody said would never come to market...while the other manufacturers show concept cars that either never appear in the real world, or the real version comes out 8 years later with just about nothing in common with the concept car.

As an example, anybody remember the 2016 concept Lincoln Navigator with huge gullwing doors and a staircase? It was obviously a "we can do it too! and fancier!" response to the Model X...the model X that was shipping to customers in 2015!

Lincoln never delivered that thing, and probably never intended to....but we heard plenty of times how the X was delayed...and there are endless stories about the Cybertruck missing its "promised" deadline now too.

 

[Cobbler]

Remember this, from last year and how it turned out?

Pessimistic Elon is just him getting into battle mode for the challenges ahead

 

[Artful Dodger]

 

[Artful Dodger]

….. agree and I think they have a big 4th quarter and BEAT projections

4th Qtr no longer matters for Wall-E. They are revising growth estimates down as we speak.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The update on 4680 production sounded good, I would like to see a written transcript of that section and I will listen to it again.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha (4 hrs ago)