I mean, I guess, but if times get tough then Tesla is going to have to lower their costs for affordability (which lowers their margins) but at the same time going "but we made 501 CTs!!" to WS. That'll be fun on the stock price next year....this is a fing headache.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Krugerrand
Meow
What if he’s wrong? Like Tesla was wrong about how many of their previous vehicles they’d sell.
Elon said on an earlier call that Tesla will make as many CyberTrucks as they can sell. I have also found the 250k number puzzling, but I don't think that's a static number. As they said on today's call, there is a lot of room at Giga Texas. I could see expansion for CyberTruck happening quickly if production and sales start to look good.
transcript will not be that negative ... a lot of positive thigs were said it was the manic tone set by Elon that has folks reeling
I think a buying opportunity ahead in coming days
I hope he is as from what I can tell this is an amazing product and I’d hate to see it be a niche toy.
Being wrong about volumes is fine, I just hope they have capacity once they are proven wrong and I’m not clear that they plan on that.
Ah, it doesn't survive crash tests well... that must be why they teased us with on April 1st, just to disappoint us later...
Krugerrand
Meow
Not our problem unless we’re playing at the casino; in which case we deserve what we get.
Additionally, don’t assume making the next gen vehicle will be ‘easy’. It’ll have its own series of hurdles and obstacles - like maybe integrating the first bots.
Not judging him.
Was entertained. Have come to expect it. But I still acknowledge it as unnecessary.
EM is a package deal.
Honestly think he sounded so especially depressed today because of global stuff that does not have to do with Tesla or Cybertrucks. It was me that posted “the weight of the world”.
The mood was down, but the 4680 news got me excited. Maybe I just haven't been paying close enough attention, but I had no idea the second line had already started. Sounds like they will soon build out lines 3 and 4? Then another 4 lines are expected shortly after that?
Did I hear all that right? And these are higher density cells too.
So Tesla's costs will continue to plummet. The competition doesn't stand a chance.
Did I hear all that right? And these are higher density cells too.
So Tesla's costs will continue to plummet. The competition doesn't stand a chance.
powertoold
Active Member
Seemingly impossible challenges are what bring Tesla and SpaceX together to do amazing work. I love that the Cybertruck is such a bold and innovative product. Technology is only exciting when the boundaries are pushed.
16% of of top line revenue now comes from Energy, Service and other ... this is important ... need to diversify away from new car sales ... I recommend looking through he report again ... considering macro environment and shutdowns it is a good report ....
In relation to combating climate change the Gen3 compact model is very important.
The Cybertruck and Semi are important.
That is why IMO the 4680 update was an important part of the call, more cells means vehicle production is not cell constrained.
On the topic of Gen3, any delay to Giga Mexico is unfortunate, but we also see evidence of Tesla hiring staff to expand sales into South America. No doubt a lot of future South American deliveries will come from Mexico.
While Cybertruck might initially be hard to build, one part of that is Tesla are aiming high in terms of the product specifications and functionality. A great design stands the test of time, long after production teething problems are forgotten.
Gen3 cars are less complex, easier to make and more utilitarian, the fancy products build the brand image, which helps to sell the more conventional vehicles.
Actions peak louder than words. good design, specifications and functionality count, Getting Mexico built ASAP also counts.
Xepa777
Member
For the record, I think the Cybertruck pricing will positively surprise everyone (I think they'll keep it within $5-10k of the announced price) but it'll screw over investors as they'll probably sell it at a loss to begin with until the ramp + iterative production efficiency methods come online in the years ahead.
And Elon's going ahead with the Cybertruck because it's his favorite car. That's it. Like the Model X doors.
And Elon's going ahead with the Cybertruck because it's his favorite car. That's it. Like the Model X doors.
Krugerrand
Meow
What if Ford or GM really do go bankrupt and can’t be saved because the Union? Americans want their trucks.
Don’t you worry. They’ll add another, improved line if they need more volume.
powertoold
Active Member
The livestreamed earnings call had some audio cut outs.
This newly posted audio call doesn't have any audio cut outs. Elon's comments about further reducing COGS at the beginning sound promising (this part was cut off during the livestream):
This newly posted audio call doesn't have any audio cut outs. Elon's comments about further reducing COGS at the beginning sound promising (this part was cut off during the livestream):
GhostSkater
Member
All four lines have been commissioning for a long time, if anything 3 and 4 should starts running pretty soon, 1 and 2 are currently making only 4680 V2
It's been weeks if not months since we stopped seeing a lot of equipment being brought in on the cell production of Giga Texas, only small stuff here and there
Then onto lines 5 to 8, and that certainly isn't for Cybertruck only, because even at 250k/yr and largest pack that is only 50 GWh, maybe they will start making the Semi with made in Texas cells, and hopefully using Semis from Texas to Nevada
I think the initial price will be $79,990.
If it takes only 18 more months for Cybertruck to become profitable, that's really good.
50GWh/8lines = 6GWh/line/yr which is double the recent 4 month 10 million cell data points.
If that was representative of line 1 and 2 combined, they need 4x the output per line.
Given that earnings call, I do think any chance of hitting 20 million production by 2030 is now very unlikely. CT ramping slowly to a potential rate of only 250K by end of 2025, delaying Giga Mexico construction, slowing MY and M3 production growth to focus on cost cutting instead, 4680 production ramping slower than expected, etc. Elon said they are taking their foot off the accelerator until interest rates start going down.
I don't see a realistic path to growing production to 20 million within seven years now, there just aren't enough factories in the pipeline to accomplish this anymore IMHO, not in such a short timeframe.
I don't see a realistic path to growing production to 20 million within seven years now, there just aren't enough factories in the pipeline to accomplish this anymore IMHO, not in such a short timeframe.
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