Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I've been seeing a lot of people online lately stating how the CT will never be more than a niche EV, selling in very low volumes (like the Hummer EV) to attention seekers and tech bros only, because no real truck person would EVER buy a CT, and "Tesla won't ever make this ugly monstrosity at high volumes anyway". And "Ford and GM will easily sell many more of their EV trucks than Tesla ever will."

I think personal bias often gets in the way of rational reasoning for many people. 😒
 
Better to do a different subject but feature tesla eg fishing/mountain biking with tesla, mortgage/investing/sensible spending. They come for the subject, get educated on tesla

This financial youtuber recommends model y (not performance, as he bought and is in pictures/video. He recommends Long Range) Post in thread 'Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable' Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

The video is a follow up to his video on whether to buy new or used for retirement car. He got so many comments on buying tesla instead of used ICE that he bought a Tesla to try.

To my mind this is the way to go and try to nibble at each next likely market segment.

There's a large driving school near me that has a single model Y. Would be great to see more.

I see many women driving teslas, but I have seen stats for UK that suggest men buy/lease more teslas. I think these stats are questionable as in UK cars are often driven by both of the couple. In many jobs, salary sacrifice company cars are a great deal. Often notionally the male's company car but their spouse or even kids (minimum 25 years old, other restrictions) can also be insured. Many of the notional vehicle keepers work from home or commute by train, so usage by women is probably higher than these stats. A second car would probably be smaller and cheaper than model y and safer to park at a train station car park, so better suited to the work from home/commuting spouse rather than the person needing room for car seats etc. Not exclusive, but general trend would be safer, bigger car for school run.

Point is, social media (not just youtube) that aligns with different people's interests featuring tesla incidentally to main subject are very useful.

Some people are mostly Facebook, Instagram etc. So not just YouTube which may have a demographic bias.

The flocks of Tesla driving around, driven by neighbours are also useful.
Since each national market differs by demographic and psychographic factors in social and general media usage. e.g. look as TikTok, WhatsApp (each dominate in specific market/demographic, invisible in others.
We have here a situation in which @UkNorthampton describes correctly and succintly the opportunity in a specific exurban market ( I worked in his specific market on social marketing for a large employer there (I’m confident he knows the specific one).
Here is the core issue: nearly all of us tend to assume that what would work for us will work for others. That ‘just ain’t true’! The industry term is ‘mother-in-law research’ even though the subject reference is itself uncommon. Every one of us is an ‘outlier’ specifically because we represent a highly specific shared interest. BY DEFINITION that means each of us displays atypical perceptions and opinions.

Specifucally in advertising, promotion, distribution economics and purchasing processes we are each outliers. We prove that, if for no other reasons, because we prove by: 1) our share purchase of TSLA we ignore consensus advice, 2) our dedication to knowing everything we can about Tesla and 3) Associating ourselves with others sharing those interests, Those three make us uniquely ill-equipped to understand how so many people seem to be ignorant of our object of obsessive interest.

Just consider that, please.
In past endeavors I have tried to reach Porsche drivers in US for aircraft training. (>19% US Porsche owners were licensed pilots) Bust! They already were! No need to sell them. Clue from that: Don’t try to sell to people who already have tgebprecise service ou sell! Next, though we tried upgrades and new ratings. Huge success! In retrospect, the cheapest and most effective sale is most often upgrading existing customers.
The next case was a famous luxury car that had changed ownership and wanted to expand their market. They were thinking if a smaller, more affordable car. This time my group was more careful. We discovered a binary ownership. The ultra-rich and the ‘wanna bet’s’. Neither wanted cheaper or smaller. We solved the latter with carefully designed leases and the former with better ‘coddling’. These days they’re thriving while the marketing innovations remain nearly invisible.
Now think very carefully about Tesla. Many of us are trying to think the traditional OEM processes suddenly are crucial as volume increases.
In so doing we forget about four massive advantages everywhere. 1. The Supercharger network; 2. OTA updates for the entire vehicle, 3. The absence of any ICE-age maintenance, 4. Direct sales.
When we consider those points can we not think of better ways to accentuate the advantages so carefully built over the last decade?
Oops! Tesla already has done it for EU and NA. Allow Supercharger access for every BEV! Do we think that’s nit enough? Just go to any other BEV maker’s owners club. Pick one. Check recent subjects. What you find: VW ID owners worry about getting enough Supercharger access, XC40/Recharge owners: OMG, the same topic!
Many of us simply cannot see 21st century marketing when it faces us. Really not new: GE, in tge 1930’s sold electricity by proving use case, refrigerators and washing machines. Ads, not so much. No need, they sold use cases.
Now suddenly Tesla is dining a perfect analogy. Next ultra-obvious hint missed by many of us. The new Model 3 code name Highland. Of course the moving assembly line, but the goal was reducing the price from ~$850 to $260. Nobody much mentions what happened then, when in 1923 Ford introduced the Weekly Purcahse Plan, $5 per week paid to a local bank.
Among the innovations in marketing happening before our eyes is that Tesla Energy is becoming a core driver for affordability, accentiated by reduced prices.
Unlike competitors MSRP and secret discounts with Tesla the initial purchase is publicly known, but operating costs become more easily managed.
So, how are these advantages communicated. Amazing! Word of Mouth. All those competitors charging their cars hearing about how they could be doing if they’d only just bought the genuine article.

Sure, the earnings call really did not explain this. Really smart to avoid promoting it as such. After all the smartest competitors already know how this story is likely to end, but they really do not have a choice.
Shades of John D Rockefeller, Harvey Firestone, Thomas Edison and Henry Ford! We simply do not precisely know who all those 21st century equivalents might be, but above all we might think about who’s the modern JP Morgan. We do know the new ones are not the US-born ones of The Gilded Age.
 
Haha, no it doesn't. The battery cell working voltage is from 3.0v to 4.2v so that's 800v +/- 33%
That range seems a bit much... 800V *1.33 = 1,064V peak...

The original S had a 96S architecture, making ~400V the peak voltage, nominal being ~345v. Subsequent designs were 108S , which is ~450 peak and ~390 nominal.

So I'd expect an "800V" pack to peak at somewhere around 800-900V.
 
View attachment 983481

Q3, 2022 Elon - "We anticipate continuing to grow our vehicle production sales deliveries...on average 50% a year as far into the future as we can see."

Q3, 2023 Elon - "It's not possible to have a compound growth rate of 50% forever."

You realize "as far into the future as we can see." ≠ "forever", right?
 
I think this might be our first look at the $1000 drive unit, perspective might be screwing it up, but it looks like a transaxle, with a possible planetary gearing for that to be possible, which make sense, at really high volume your cost is mostly material, planetary allows you lower material volume for the same power

View attachment 983542

So, all of the Tesla drive units this have a gear reduction, but no "transmission" per se, so not sure "transaxle" is the right term for that...

Out of curiosity, what indicates to you this is a planetary, as opposed to the pinion style they've traditionally used, with the output side away from us where we can't see it?
 
  • Like
Reactions: capster
Pretty cool pic of the V4 Supercharger stalls, you can see where the immersion cooling cable ends and is connected to the bus bars

Small white tubes are the inlet that goes to the handle and the thick ones are the return which comes from inside the HV conductors

View attachment 984129

Cool full cabinet pic in there as well... assume that's control cable in the left ground conduit?

1697994232003.png
 
It sounds like you are actually agreeing with me! ;)

I agree once the Gen3 line is built in Austin and ironed out, they can then "copy & paste" the line design in Mexico and any other future factories. However, that takes time to implement, and with these delays now I do not think there is enough time between now and 2030 to ramp total production to 20 million by then. I think something more like 13-15 million production by 2030 is far more likely, with 20 million happening a few years afterwards.
Stretching the initial part of an exponential curve out a bit doesn’t necessarily have that big an effect further along the curve, as Elon has noted on a number of occasions specifically wrt to factory production.

The question is: How big of a stretch are we looking at? Elon made it pretty clear that macro conditions are what he’s looking at to decide how fast to proceed with the Mexico Gigafactory—it’s not like they can’t go faster. Reading between the lines, I think he’s being conservative on Cybertruck profitability for the same reason.

Are we in for many years of high interest rates? Who knows? Perhaps you have the crystal ball Elon asks for on occasion as one seems implicit in your forecast.

Also, technological advances, such as Optimus, and learnings elsewhere made in the meantime may conceivably make ramps, rollouts, etc. faster done later—it’s not like they’re sitting on their hands.
 
Are we in for many years of high interest rates?

This aspect is something that has been on my mind while reading through the posts from the faction concerned over the so-called "high" interest rates. I think the answer is more likely to be found through perspective than in measuring against the rate itself.

Several others have posted about how these rates really aren't all that high, historically. It is just that they have spiked over a short period of time and this will take some getting used to after an extended period of low rates. Fortunately, people adapt to the environment pretty well, given time.

Right now folks are pausing on purchases with long payouts as they are not yet mentally readjusted to the boosted interest rate. There is no reason the current rate won't become the new normal, and, probably won't take very long in the grander scheme of things for buyers and lenders to accept, once the FED rate's behavior becomes a constant rather than an ever-increasing variable.

At that point the lenders and borrowers will mentally balance out to the change. Granted, the FED says it wants 2-3% inflation, but as the 'interest rate historians' have pointed out, keeping rates at 5% or so encourages savings and discourages bad purchase decisions because of the additional costs of borrowing. Economically, this is a stabilizing factor.

This too will contribute to keeping inflation down, as in a (loosely described as) fractional reserve banking system the lion's share of inflation is the direct result of bank lending to borrowers. This goes off into the weeds a little, but most people have no idea that the money borrowed is not lent from money that exists and then is loaned out. Rather, most of it is money being created which didn't exist before. Because of this the money supply is inflated by what is being borrowed into the market, among other things.

It seems to me that these FED rate changes are very likely to have reached that happy medium where borrowing is reduced and inflation is controlled. Frankly, it seems surprising how long it took for them to do this, but there were extenuating circumstances.

So, yes, we may be in for many years of "high" interest rates, if comparing to the past decade, but "normal" interest rates when measured against what has traditionally been established as a good working relationship between lending and inflation.

As people adjust, those who have reacted by selling or at least, not buying, will come back to the trough. Hopefully we are getting closer to reaching this new equilibrium between the economic forces at play.

If so, HODL.
 
Last edited:
I've been seeing a lot of people online lately stating how the CT will never be more than a niche EV, selling in very low volumes (like the Hummer EV) to attention seekers and tech bros only, because no real truck person would EVER buy a CT, and "Tesla won't ever make this ugly monstrosity at high volumes anyway". And "Ford and GM will easily sell many more of their EV trucks than Tesla ever will."

I think personal bias often gets in the way of rational reasoning for many people. 😒

A truck you can shoot with a Tommy Gun is the most desirable American car you could possibly ever make.

Period. End of story.