Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dano-oly]

Someone is actually doing this (a "Cannonball run" on solar only, anyway - no chargers). They are using a Model Y, and at the end of each travel period (less than a day and likely at night or when the sun is low...for hopefully obvious reasons) they pull out all of their small solar array from the back of the Y and set it up on the ground

Elon should watch the documentary about Matt Damon doing that on Mars.

Back slightly closer to on-topic, I hope Tesla makes a mint selling accessories of questionable value to the CT crowd. Undercoating, anyone?

 

[cusetownusa]

I’m sure that will work for many. But we wouldn’t pull the trigger unless the range is north of 600 kilometres. My guess is that is a screen shot of a mid range CT

Jmho.

Same here...was hoping to get at least what my Y gets but ideally I would want at least 350 miles. This would be our main roadtrip vehicle. However, if the price is still close to $50k (at least under 55k) then I still may be in the market for one. At $60k or more it could turn of a lot of reservation holders that made their reservation based on the $50k figure.

 

[uscbucsfan]

They should hopefully at least mention a future long range version.

They will/should if Elon does tomorrow. If he doesn't bring up the 500 mile version in the future, or worse, says 500 miles isn't needed...there will be mass criticism.

It won't matter for a while, they will sell every single version they can make for at least 18 months, even if the dual/300 mile version is $70k+, just because of the excitement.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I knew it was just a matter of time before "Tesla Killer" extraordinaire Al Root came out with a CT article:

Tesla Will Go Down After the Cybertruck Launch. And Ford and GM? Up, Probably.

Tesla has an event planned for Thursday. It's speeding into GM and Ford territory.

www.barrons.com

 

[uscbucsfan]

I knew it was just a matter of time before "Tesla Killer" extraordinaire Al Root came out with a CT article:

Tesla Will Go Down After the Cybertruck Launch. And Ford and GM? Up, Probably.

Tesla has an event planned for Thursday. It's speeding into GM and Ford territory.

www.barrons.com

View attachment 994750

I predict a slight drop initially when pricing/specs are announced, but then as people hype it all over social media, an overall net increase.

 

[GrandEnigma]

I predict a slight drop initially when pricing/specs are announced, but then as people hype it all over social media, an overall net increase.

Do people really think it will be inline with OG prices? I have long given up on that hope. I will be amazed if the dual-motor is less then 70s and the tri 90s. That is my expectation anyway.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I can see them releasing it, but it's likely expensive for a minimal charge amount. Maybe 7 miles per day in great sunlight. At least that's what Elon said in the past. Good for keeping a charge while camping.

It will be interesting to calculate the payoff rate. It will probably be something like 30 years.
One could argue a few hours for that rare occasion when you really need it.

 

[GOVA]

TSLA went down quite a bit after the CT reveal, so Al Root is a good observer.
For those who have not noticed, what Tesla does is not well matched to its stock price because WS.

 

[2daMoon]

I knew it was just a matter of time before "Tesla Killer" extraordinaire Al Root came out with a CT article:

Tesla Will Go Down After the Cybertruck Launch. And Ford and GM? Up, Probably.

Tesla has an event planned for Thursday. It's speeding into GM and Ford territory.

www.barrons.com

View attachment 994750

As funny as it is, he could easily be right in the short term.

Let's just give Wall Street some time to let it sink in...

​

HODL

 

[cusetownusa]

Do people really think it will be inline with OG prices? I have long given up on that hope. I will be amazed if the dual-motor is less then 70s and the tri 90s. That is my expectation anyway.

That would be a major disappointment imo. If true, maybe that is why they have been so quiet on the pricing leading up to the reveal?

 

[AudubonB]

My strong dislike for memes just declined by quite a few notches.

 

[2daMoon]

That would be a major disappointment imo. If true, maybe that is why they have been so quiet on the pricing leading up to the reveal?

The intro price should be high. That is just how it should be done so they can slash prices, get more free advertising, and invoke terror among the legacy OEMs later.

I'm more interested in the price of the Dual Motor in two years or so, after production ramps, costs are reduced due to economy of scale, and most importantly, my CT reservation gets closer to reaching the top of the heap.

 

[SOULPEDL]

ARK... is that you selling?

 

[Usain]

That would be a major disappointment imo. If true, maybe that is why they have been so quiet on the pricing leading up to the reveal?

This much is assured: No matter what the pricing turns out to be, it will make some people unhappy and it will be seen as a negative by many in the media.

If CT is priced high, that will be bad.
If CT is priced low, that will be bad.
If CT is priced in-between it will be reported as too high or too low. That will be bad.

By releasing all info about specs and pricing and demos all in the same day, pricing becomes a smaller part of the story.

 

[GrandEnigma]

That would be a major disappointment imo. If true, maybe that is why they have been so quiet on the pricing leading up to the reveal?

My house has doubled in value since the CT was announced, my grocery spend is up 38% and I doubt removing the 6th seat, lift gate ramp etc. will offset inflation over that time. If we look at the dollar alone we are at what like 4.74% annual or nearly 20% over the past 4 years?

 

[EQC_]

Do people really think it will be inline with OG prices? I have long given up on that hope. I will be amazed if the dual-motor is less then 70s and the tri 90s. That is my expectation anyway.

I fully expect that the Cybertruck will start at a higher price until production comes up...but that being said:

The thing I always remember is that when the Cybertruck was first revealed in November of 2019, the price for the mid-range/Dual Motor AWD was VERY CLOSE to the Model Y price for the LR-AWD of similar range at the time.

At the reveal in November of 2019, the "300+ mile" dual-motor Cybertruck was listed as $49,900.

Deliveries for the Model Y didn't start until March of 2020...but based on some quick googling, through 2019, you could lock in an order for the Model Y LR-AWD (with a similar 315 mile range) for approximately $51,000, and Tesla delivered many at that price. Of course the Model Y price went way up during the pandemic/inflation/etc....but has come back down to that $50K ballpark for the LR-AWD Y today.

And, we know features of the Cybertruck have increased in some respects (rear-wheel steering wasn't part of the announcement...), and that would drive price up... And, now that the engineering has been done, perhaps they realized some other realities that increased production costs for the cybertruck...

But, at least early on, somebody thought it could be possible to sell a Cybertruck for a similar price as a Model Y with a similar range and motor count. And, even with all the inflation over the years, the current Model Y price is very close to the 2019 price, and the specs of the car are actually better (slightly more range, upgraded infotainment computer, etc.).

 

[geometro]

Same here...was hoping to get at least what my Y gets but ideally I would want at least 350 miles. This would be our main roadtrip vehicle. However, if the price is still close to $50k (at least under 55k) then I still may be in the market for one. At $60k or more it could turn of a lot of reservation holders that made their reservation based on the $50k figure.

IIRC, the $7,500 tax credit was gone for Tesla under the rules at the time... with it back on the table, a $60K price would make it $52.5K for those that qualify... so may not be an issue.

 

[cusetownusa]

IIRC, the $7,500 tax credit was gone for Tesla under the rules at the time... with it back on the table, a $60K price would make it $52.5K for those that qualify... so may not be an issue.

I agree..$60k or less with the $7500 rebate would be great depending on the range.

 

[scaesare]

I saw that the CT Solar cover can generate up to 15 miles of charge in a day, so it's larger than what I expected.

So the recent shots of the CT dash show 265 miles with 9 bars showing. That extrapolates out to 265*.9=294 miles of range. Call it 300, as there's obviously some coarseness to the granularity of a 10 segment gauge... besides the target was 300....

It's been rumored the initial dual motor CT has a 123KWh pack. That's 300/123=2.44 miles per KWh, or 1/2.44= 410Wh per mile.

Thus, adding 15 miles of range implies adding 0.41*15=6.15Kwh. If that's over the course of 5 hours (typical home solar daily generation assumption), that's 6.15/5=1.23KWh per hour.

Assuming the flexible canopy is made of 15% efficient cells, and knowing the luminous flux hitting earth is ~1Kw/m^2 that's 1.23/0.15=8.4 square meters.

So, the canopy could be a little over 2x4m, or not even the full size of the CT footprint, as I had postulated above.

 

[unk45]

Government could not compel a private company to absorb another, could they? including employees, liabilities, debt?

Yes they can 'compel' a rather large array of forced acquisitions. For one recent example look at 2008/2009 and the US securities industry and commercial banks. Then check out aerospace industry consolidation, albeit a slightly longer transition. After that, just for light drama, check out General Motors/GMAC, the Chrysler Corporation history.

I said 'compel' because almost all of those US deals were structured to avoid actual compulsion while ensuring that the government desires were fulfilled.

In most countries around the world governments do manage to have their strong desires fulfilled, even including clever designs to make everything seem to be voluntary.