Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

So deviating from a 10 year trend where the second half of the year selling drastically more than the the first half (with Q4 sales essentially being the same as Q1 of the following year) is meaningless?

I think the more likely explanation is Tesla is transitioning from supply limited to demand limited. And what's more concerning for them is that demand is falling.

Do you think sales growth in an arbitrary set of quarters is somehow more important than following product cycles?

 

[2daMoon]

The minutes of the FOMC are public record. The complaints you raise are typical political points raised by people who disagree with the decisions. I understand that the reality of all this seems unlikely to those who ar not familiar with it, especially since many of the participants, i.e. member banks, themselves have political views such as the Independent Community Banks or the giant names. There is every reason to carefully observe the public information. As for the Chairman/Chairwaoman of the FRS, they invariably generate loud objections. That really does not make their statements necessarily incorrect, just frequently politically incorrect.

One can argue that the system is less benign than I assert that it is. It is, however, disingenuous to persist in blaming that system for the ills of the legislative and executive branches of the US government.

In context, I've long been aware of similar complaints from other central banks, from Japan to the Eurozone to Brazil and, stereotypically, Argentina. IN the latter, notably, the functions became overtly political, not just political complaints. Many other countries ahem seen such catastrophic results of making monetary policy overtly political.

So, I hear what you are saying. It's your right to say it. Alleging something does not make it true. We ahem trouble enough with FUD to allow it to rule opinion none of the very few well functioning parts of much of the world economies.

You want political control of central banking? Russia, Argentina and Venezuela are just three obvious cases.
Others are threatened regularly but most allow sanity to prevail.
General rule: when all extremes agree that a Central Bank is not doing well, it probably actually is doing its job. There is a reason why, for example, Alan Greenspan was famous for his ability to speak eloquently while convening essentially no useful information. That is usually not good, but Central Bank functions are always hard to fathom.
For US context I recommend studying The Bank of North America and then The Bank of the Manhattan Company. The US, like most countries has fought hard to avoid professionalism in monetary policy. When disaster strikes, as early 20th century wise politicians give up and try to create something akin to the Federal Reserve System. Not perfect but better than nearly all alternatives.

Elon would agree with that view. There is little reason for him to say anything much about that other than an odd complaint. As a TSLA shareholder I am grateful for the Federal Reserve System. As a human being I'm grateful for the Euro system.

It seems important to draw a line between the Central Bank policies, and the other set of rules governing its member banks that operate in the retail space. It seems like sometimes these are pointed at as if they are same thing under the term "banking" and it might warrant a closer look at which is in a position to most effectively affect the markets.

Specifically in regard to the market investments and the banks being allowed to trade on both sides of the aisle with the pretense of a legally required separation between those functions to prevent malfeasance due to information sharing between departments.

Yet, don't the players on both sides of the aisle within the bank take coffee in the same break room, or lunch at the same deli?

Maybe their "Chinese Wall" isn't really all that 'great' for their retail customers and the previous rules should have been left in place preventing these banks from holding positions in the market on their own behalf.

It wasn't bad enough that these banks are allowed to create money and add it to the supply through loans made without any basis in bank reserves, devaluing the dollars they hold for their customers in the process, now, they can use the customer's money held in trust by the bank to place bets that can work against the customer's investments as well.

This seems more like where the finger should be pointing in regard to banks and significant negative effects on retail investment.

Until Tesla came along I avoided anything to do with the rigged game that is Wall Street. Even now, TSLA is the only holding I have ever held in the market, other than where my employer had put the 401K contributions prior to me reaching 59.5 years of age when it all went into TSLA, and dabbling in Ark with leftover money that wouldn't buy a full TSLA share.

The disruptive nature of Tesla's mission, engineering, and production capabilities seemed like something that might grow fast enough to evade the snares. I still think this is true, though it continues to be a roller coaster ride. I'll continue to keep my seat belt buckled and the safety bar latched in place and try to enjoy it. But those Carneys in the big banks make me nervous.

HODL

 

[terranx]

Do you think sales growth in an arbitrary set of quarters is somehow more important than following product cycles?

I think the trends are important to look at. As well as the company's actions

 

[Big Time]

I hope for a small dividend some day for TSLA holders. They said no years ago but times change, and so has the company.

Dividend examples:
Free X premium account
A dollar or ? per share
Premium connectivity
Starlink terminal discount
All shareholders who held before 2016 free robo taxi for life

 

[Mengy]

So deviating from a 10 year trend where the second half of the year selling drastically more than the the first half (with Q4 sales essentially being the same as Q1 of the following year) is meaningless?

I think the more likely explanation is Tesla is transitioning from supply limited to demand limited. And what's more concerning for them is that demand is falling.

But we know why Q3 was lower than Q2, they were tooling up for Highland production. It was an explained event, not a mystery. You can assume they are having demand issues if you want to but Tesla still sells every vehicle it makes very rapidly, so currently the data does not support your theory.

Personally I think we'll see this "lower quarter" situation play out again in 2024 when they retool for the MY refresh. But again it won't be a demand issue, just a line retooling event.

 

[Quesder]

If you really can't handle much volatility, your investing behaviour certainly doesn't seem to match your risk profile at all! I wish you well with it anyway.

I'm far too dumb and don't have the stress tolerance to do anything other than buy and hold, lol! Been all in since January 2012, so seen plenty of periods of stagnation and downturns along the way. I took around 10% out back at around $400 to cover our living costs for a few years, but 90% of net worth still in TSLA at present which seems to scare all my relatives senseless for some reason! I'm going to take another 50% out at $500, might take a few years yet, (or not, who knows?) but we're good whatever now with zero debt, so just amused by the ride at this point.

That is awesome for you. Hopefully we can really reach $500, not too long but by 2026. Many people at that moment might not sell because greed comes up again, but since you managed to sell at $400 in the past, I bet you will execute well at $500.

 

[terranx]

Oh okay so you are basing you argument by pulling S out of your A. Got it. Damn I thought this was gonna go somewhere.

I mean do you really think it's coming out any time soon? Historically Tesla takes a while to go from announcing a product and it launching. And to date they haven't actually announced the 25k car or showing a prototype. They just claimed it's being worked on.

 

[Singuy]

I mean do you really think it's coming out any time soon? Historically Tesla takes a while to go from announcing a product and it launching. And to date they haven't actually announced the 25k car or showing a prototype. They just claimed it's being worked on.

To not osbourne current sales, it's good that the general public like you thinks it's coming out in 2028, better if they think it's vaporwave.

 

[terranx]

But we know why Q3 was lower than Q2, they were tooling up for Highland production. It was an explained event, not a mystery. You can assume they are having demand issues if you want to but Tesla still sells every vehicle it makes very rapidly, so currently the data does not support your theory.

Personally I think we'll see this "lower quarter" situation play out again in 2024 when they retool for the MY refresh. But again it won't be a demand issue, just a line retooling event.

So why was Q4 barely higher? Why are they needing to roll out aggressive incentives and price drops to maintain sales even in the US where they were not having factory retooling? Why can I order a Tesla today and get it in a month where in the past it would take much longer? Why are their inventory levels at record highs?

 

[Mengy]

I mean do you really think it's coming out any time soon? Historically Tesla takes a while to go from announcing a product and it launching. And to date they haven't actually announced the 25k car or showing a prototype. They just claimed it's being worked on.

Personally I think the Gen3 car will enter production late in 2025, next year, out of Austin first. However I don't think Tesla will actually show it publicly until a month or so before production starts, so maybe early Q4 next year? (In order to not hurt M3 sales) That's what I expect to see.

 

[scaesare]

I think the trends are important to look at. As well as the company's actions

Sure, but what trends?

Sales continue to be strong. Units sold is close to current manufacturing capacity. Uptake on new product intros is high. New models are known to be in the works. Production ramp of recently introduced new models is underway. There are non-vehicular existing products are increasing sales. Non-vehicular products in development are showing good progress.

Now to be real, there are some problematic issues: 4680 ramp has been slower than expected. Solar roof is not doing great volume.

But taken in context, things are looking pretty good. If you want to paint the flatter part of the curve in-between volume product releases as a problem, that's pretty glass half empty.

 

[2daMoon]

Not directly stock related, but a buddy of mine and his wife, woke millennials who absolutely hate and scorn Elon and swore they would never buy a Tesla, got a Model Y this past weekend.

They have been thinking of switching their 11-year old Subaru to an EV and asking me about different EVs, Audi, Mercedes, Volvo, BMW (I own 3 EVs + 3 ICEs). Finally got them to go to Tesla and they were completely turned around by the car and the deal, a "clear the lot" special. Left Tesla with the new Y on our visit.

So while Elon is definitely an albatross to sale, he's not something that cannot be overcome. Especially with the quality of the car and the deals that are being offered.

This is why I remain motivated to HODL. The Facts don't care about anyone's feelings.

The facts support how a Tesla product will put money in a buyer's pocket over the product lifetime when compared to their other choices.

Wallet beats political perspectives, given enough time to form rational thought processes.

 

[GhostSkater]

If anyone wonders if the media is really that bad, or: do paying customers of the media have the media in their pocket?
Well, Toyota is known to be one of the largest buyers in the world when it comes to paid advertising.

I see non-stop Toyota ads online on how they are leading the charge on making a cleaner world everyday

Disgusting

 

[2daMoon]

Ah yes, the winning strategy for any argument.

If you believe the company actually has a good path ahead of them, show me your numbers.

If you believe another company has a better path ahead, show their numbers.

 

[terranx]

To not osbourne current sales, it's good that the general public like you thinks it's coming out in 2028, better if they think it's vaporwave.

Because historically that's been the case?

Model X announced 2012, released 2016
Model 3 was announced 2014, came out 2017
Roadster annouced 2017, still not out
Semi announced 2017, still only rolled out as an extremely limited production vehicle that you can't order
Cybertruck announced 2019, came out only recently with extremely limited production

The only major exception is the model Y, and that shared much of its design with the model 3.

 

[Knightshade]

I mean do you really think it's coming out any time soon? Historically Tesla takes a while to go from announcing a product and it launching. And to date they haven't actually announced the 25k car or showing a prototype. They just claimed it's being worked on.

Do you think it's possible Tesla has learned something from previously having announced cars many years before they could mass produce them, and is perhaps now waiting to officially announce one much nearer the launch date?

 

[terranx]

If you believe another company has a better path ahead, show their numbers.

nVidia?

If you're talking about other car companies... being valued similarly to other car. companies will destroy Tesla's value. They only got to where they are because of being treated as a tech company.

 

[Discoducky]

We've been around the block on this on several occasions. Suffice to say I find your explanations unconvincing, as the banks chain of ownship always leads back to the same small group, the same society which also owns Wall St. investment banks.

Having worked inside the system for much of your career, please do explain why the FED is making irrational interest rate decisions, harming the economy. Meanwhile they pretend the remaining inflation (housing) is a problem they can solve, when if fact they are themselves causing this inflation with interest rate hikes? Inexplicable? No, it's 'splicable (just unseemly).

Routinely, Chairman Powell has jaw-boned down the stock market in seeming response to the needs of hedge funds, who eagerly pounce on his hand-wringing (again, not supported by data). Twice is coincidence, three times is trend. There was literally a press conference when the SP started to go up during his remarks, a media article appeared, and he inexplicabley change gears to overwhelmingly negative for the rest of his talk. You can only say that doesn't happen if you don't look at it happening right in front of your eyes.

All are rhetorical questions, as there is no public information to provide definative evidence of this control. Such restrictions CAN NOT exist in a democracy without undue influence by powerful factions. Just because something is unseen, or unexplained, doesn't mean that its not true.

For example: explain gravity (I'll weight).

I kinda get not reducing rates (kinda), but why is the balance sheet still elevated? Why isn't there more QT? Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level. Seems dead obvious if they wanted to cool off the economy they'd unload at a much faster rate.

 

[terranx]

Do you think it's possible Tesla has learned something from previously having announced cars many years before they could mass produce them, and is perhaps now waiting to officially announce one much nearer the launch date?

Honestly, no I don't think it's possible. This company is famous for showing products before they're ready (cybertruck and roadster being the most recent examples) and hyping up capabilities they don't actually have (FSD, optimus, etc)

 

[GOVA]

Ah yes, the winning strategy for any argument.

If you believe the company actually has a good path ahead of them, show me your numbers.

minus one.