Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

This should be enough to keep us in the green...for today at least

I sold 25 today. I took the signal from @terranx.

 

[terranx]

I sold 25 today. I took the signal from @terranx.

Glad to save you some money

 

[Hock1]

Hey I know based on your posts you may have had trouble in elementary school and can't read context. So I'll spell it out for you. I'm talking about within the year. Again, every year prior, they had drastic growth in Q3/4 compared to Q1/2. This year q3/4 were stagnant.


I mean they sell 4 models, with two of them being consolation prizes. If you take SUV/CUV sales instead of splitting by model, their numbers aren't *that* great (but yes, they still sold an impressive amount). Regardless, as you know, the market is a little bit stupid and cares about infinite growth rather than profitability in general. So unless you think the Y can sell say... 1.8M units this year, they're going to get hit hard.

I love how idiots here use shorts as an insult when it's just one of many investment strategies.

Then there are the idiots who think short selling is investing!

 

[terranx]

Then there are the idiots who think short selling is investing!

Are you saying you cannot make money by shorting companies?

 

[Mengy]

So why was Q4 barely higher? Why are they needing to roll out aggressive incentives and price drops to maintain sales even in the US where they were not having factory retooling? Why can I order a Tesla today and get it in a month where in the past it would take much longer? Why are their inventory levels at record highs?

- I think Q4 was barely higher because Tesla is near their current line caps for Fremont / Shanghai and they seem to have slowed the ramps in Berlin / Austin.
- I think the aggressive price drops are because of the high interest rates hurting auto sales demand. Plenty of demand for Teslas (and other brands too) if only people could currently afford them.
- Inventory is still great. Normal auto brands have 4+ months of inventory sitting, Tesla only has about a week's worth at any given time. That's not an issue, it's fantastic IMHO.

 

[jeewee3000]

I mean do you really think it's coming out any time soon? Historically Tesla takes a while to go from announcing a product and it launching. And to date they haven't actually announced the 25k car or showing a prototype. They just claimed it's being worked on.

You should read a book once in a while.

Source: Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson, page 504-505.

Pilot line design has been going on for almost a year at this point.

 

[terranx]

You should read a book once in a while.

View attachment 1015906
Source: Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson, page 504-505.

Pilot line design has been going on for almost a year at this point.

Okay, so maybe 2027 instead if you take everything at face value. And notably that passage seems to show Elon tried his hardest to make anything but the 25k car.

Also I read plenty, but I'm not in the habit of reading biographies of people who I think are extremely distasteful.

 

[navguy12]

I wonder what Tesla’s contingency plan will be if the IRA (et al) incentives were quashed in 2025?

On his first day in office, Trump has said he would repeal “crooked Joe Biden’s insane electric vehicle mandate”

‘In a word, horrific’: Trump’s extreme anti-environment blueprint

Allies and advisers have hinted at a more methodical second term: driving forward fossil fuel production, sidelining scientists and overturning rules

www.theguardian.com

 

[scaesare]

Honestly, no I don't think it's possible. This company is famous for showing products before they're ready (cybertruck and roadster being the most recent examples) and hyping up capabilities they don't actually have (FSD, optimus, etc)

You are expecting Elon/Tesla to act like a typical corporation with typical goals.

Elon doed not see profit as the ultimate goal. It's a means to an end. Nor does he care to cater to the whims of Wall street. The engineer in him wants to share the cool tech they are attempting to develop to do things like save humanity and the planet.

In short: You are using the wrong tool to measure with.

 

[terranx]

You are expecting Elon/Tesla to act like a typical corporation with typical goals.

Elon doe not see profit as the ultmate goal. It's a means to an end. Nor does he care to cater to the whims of wall street. The engineer in him wants to share the cool tech they are attempting to develop to do things like save humanity and the planet.

In short: You are using the wrong tool to measure with.

If you say so. I would argue Elon's actions have shown the only thing he actually cares about is money and hating human rights.

 

[jeewee3000]

Okay, so maybe 2027 instead if you take everything at face value. And notably that passage seems to show Elon tried his hardest to make anything but the 25k car.

Irrelevant. He changed his mind about that.

What we know is that suppliers are being asked to deliver parts by mid 2025. Start of production scheduled for end of 2025. I'll put on my bearish hat and assume that is too optimistic, but by mid 2026 we should see first production.

Still 2.5 years away, plenty of time to announce it.

The question is when will Mister Market value the 25k car? It won't be at the start of production.

I don't want to find out so I'm staying in the stock.

 

[scaesare]

If you say so. I would argue Elon's actions have shown the only thing he actually cares about is money and hating human rights.

And I would say that's an argument based in being ignorant of the greater context.

 

[Singuy]

nVidia?

If you're talking about other car companies... being valued similarly to other car. companies will destroy Tesla's value. They only got to where they are because of being treated as a tech company.

Nvidia is a good company but their TAM is like 400B with 250-300B of that being lower margin inference chips and memory. Tesla has multiple trillion dollar TAM from car sales to EV charging to energy infrastructure. Yes margins are lower, but Nvidia will not enjoy 80% margin forever as competitors are coming in since their software moat is dying as big players are looking for alternatives due to their price gouging practices.

 

[terranx]

And I would say that's an argument based in being ignorant of the greater context.

Enlighten me then.

 

[Unpilot]

Enlighten me then.

I suggest you do this for yourself.

 

[terranx]

What hap

I suggest you do this for yourself.

Oh I've read enough to make a pretty well formulated opinion of Elon. If you have any real evidence to the contrary that he actually cares about the planet, cares about human rights, hasn't become a right wing conspiracy theorist, isn't anti-science, anti-vaccine, etc, I'm all ears.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Glad to save you some money

You're just as much an indicator as everyone else. It tells me the TSLA push-down is not quite done yet, so I'm just day-trading on this noise. You'll be back next cycle, as with all the others that showed up recently (Elon on drugs + Recall + Demand). You're focusing on the Demand leg I see.

Recall, I'm the one who did the survey on 2025 production, and I estimated 2.5M. Trust me when I say they will most likely hit it. What happens this week or quarter is irrelevant. Step back and trust my guidance. You've been adviced.

 

[Singuy]

Honestly, no I don't think it's possible. This company is famous for showing products before they're ready (cybertruck and roadster being the most recent examples) and hyping up capabilities they don't actually have (FSD, optimus, etc)

Okay I am giving the benefit of the doubt and think you are a smart guy.

Do you think the CT, roadster and optimus will osbourne Model 3 and Y sales?

Now..what was the length of time between annoucement and deliveries when it came to the Model Y which...I don't know..may osbourne something?

 

[terranx]

You're just as much an indicator as everyone else. It tells me the TSLA push-down is not quite done yet, so I'm just day-trading on this noise. You'll be back next cycle, as with all the others that showed up recently (Elon on drugs + Recall + Demand). You're focusing on the Demand leg I see.

Recall, I'm the one who did the survey on 2025 production, and I estimated 2.5M. Trust me when I say they will most likely hit it. What happens this week or quarter is irrelevant. Step back and trust my guidance. You've been adviced.

Noted. Your advice isn't really worth much to me (I honestly have no clue who you are or why I should care about your "survey"). But thanks anyway.

 

[scaesare]

Enlighten me then.

I'll meet you half way...

-Money: He's deliberately reduced prices in the face of demand in order to speed up the transition to clean vehicles. When he was listed as #1 on Forbes richest list, surpassing Bezos, he response was "Huh, interesting. OK, back to work." His biographies discuss his motivation, it wasn't money, it was solving significant problems facing humankind. He does things like tell heads of powerful companies that typically buy lots of advertising to "Go eff yourself", based on principle... there are many more examples.

Your turn...

-Humanity:______________________