Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Here is our Tesla ad!

We may see Ross Gerber in it

 

[SOULPEDL]

Here is our Tesla ad!

That was funny! Ha ha...

It's pay-walled. So what's Dan gonna say? That Tesla's are the safest... when you walk instead?

Y Price Cut + Dan O' = Off to a great start for a Monday TSLA sale, unless...

 

[unk45]

Yup read it. I found 'seducing the subconscious' and 'the advertised mind' to be better, and focused 100% on subconscious advertising.
75% of my biz expenses are advertising, I study the area a lot!

I am well aware of the power of subconscious advertising. I fully support it. I also, however, strongly support targeted and optimised advertising. There is no 'one size fits all' approach to branding. The attitudes of Koreans and Chinese to luxury products is VASTLY different to that of the US and especially western Europe. Lots of US marketing with its carefully chosen multicultural smiling families based on the demographics of Los Angeles looks ridiculous in othe countries...
I think people in the US often think that stuff that appeals to them, appeals to everyone. Not true. A twentysomething single male in Poland will not respond to the same ad as a 50+ divorced woman in Seoul. The idea of using the same marketing message to a vast audience is the sort of thing that was in vogue with 'mad men'. Its absolutely useless in 2024.

If I could use AI to compose truly unique ads to show to every possible customer, I would do so. The ROI on targeted ads is WAY beyond that of mass media splurges. A superbowl ad is like apple building a flashy HQ building. Its what CEOs do when the cash pile gets too big and they don't know what to do next.

TBH I think Elon knows this. Its no surprise that Tesla spends their small ad budget on targetable platforms like X or youtube. When you see that Tesla ad on X, thats for you specifically. Thats how to do it!

Very well said. The Holy Grail of Word of Mouth comes to mind. The corollary taken almost verbatim from a PhD thesis "Marketing is what you do when your business is too large to know every customer".

 

[Unpilot]

Weekend OT:

Spoiler: Fastest rubber band ever

Fun fact: the fastest I've ever travelled is 775 mph ground speed in a Boeing 747-400 in Sep 1997. Originally, my airline had assigned a vanilla 767 for the mid-range distance flt from Honolulu to Vancouver. Alas, the rubber band broke and the airline told us they would put us up in a hotel overnight instead. Hey, free dinner and a soft bed in Waikiki, 'A' ole pilikia...

However, around 11 pm the concierge knocked on my hotel room door and said "Change of plan! We've arranged for a replacement airplane, and we take off in 1 hour! Please make your way to the buses now waiting in the parkade".

The replacement was the Boeing 747-475, the pride of Canadian Airlines, sporting 4 mighty Rolls-Royce RB211 turbofans. This A/C had just flown from Montreal to Vancouver, and was retasked to fetch us from Hawaii before it's planned return to Montreal in the morning (I presume w. a crew change).

When we arrived at the departure terminal at PHNL, we were hurried through security (pre-9/11) and escorted directly to our assigned seats. After a high-speed taxi, the plane did a rolling left turn onto the departure runway, throttles to the wall, and climbed like a fighter jet to FL430 in 13 minutes! (we only took on fuel for a 2700 nm leg + IFR reserves, and had only the reduced # of pax aboard that would fit in a much smaller 767-300) so we were well below gross. To say that ship climbed like a homesick angel is not to trivialize the feat: it was breathtaking, visceral in the way only pilots can appreciate.

Once at cruise altitude, the Flt Crew steered us 500 miles North to intercept the jet stream, blowing a fierce 175 kts at 43,000' altitude. The planned time of flt was too short to show a movie, so throughout the flight the on-board screens displayed a moving map w. Direction + Ground Speed. Just about 275 miles West of Vancouver Island, the map showed a groundspeed of 775 mph, which was the combination of true airspeed and component tail.

Shortly thereafter, the engines went remarkably quiet, and you felt a slight drop in pressure in your ears as engine bleed air decreased. We maintained altitude to reduce airspeed for 25 miles, then the plane began its decent although we were still 250 miles West of CYVR. Now don't say there's no Cowboys left in the West; those 2 jocks brought that plane down at avg 3,000' per min all the way down to 6,000' to join the CASDY THREE Arrival for Rwy 26L.

Wheels up in Honolulu to wheels down in Vancouver: 4 hrs 5 min. Distance 2,750 nm. Avg speed: 675 mph. The Aircrew hustled us off the plane even as the maintenance staff was tidying up cushions and vacuuming carpets. I was still standing in line waiting to enter Customs as I saw our magnificent Canadian Goose push back from the jetway and taxi out for its scheduled departure for Montreal, only 40 min behind schedule. What an awesome marvel of engineering! What a team!

And what a great rubber-band-break story!
Paging @Papafox 'your turn'.

P.S. The a/c C-GMWW was sold to Air Canada, resold & retired, and now broken up
P.P.S. The last "Jumbo Jet" aircraft, a 747-8F for Atlas Air registered N863GT, rolled off the production line on December 6, 2022, and was delivered on January 31, 2023.
End of an era, the fond memories remain...

Looking through some old pictures I took while flying, I see I got close to that.

Edit to say for non-aviators...TAS is true airspeed. GS is ground speed the wind vector is under KJFK (where we were going that day) so it was blowing from the WSW at 195 knots or 224 mph. That is a nice push...bet we got in early that day.....then waited for a gate!

Edit to say 655knts is = to 753 mph

 

[Unpilot]

Of course, this speed is more fun!

 

[winfield100]

That was funny! Ha ha...

It's pay-walled. So what's Dan gonna say? That Tesla's are the safest... when you walk instead?

Y Price Cut + Dan O' = Off to a great start for a Monday TSLA sale, unless...

non pay walled "gift article". comments are _problematic_ usual suspects

https://wapo.st/49bK3y5

 

[AudubonB]

Thanks to the several aviators here for providing their insights. Now:

That’s enough completely Off Topic material about….well, whatever it was. No more here.

 

[rentierparasit]

Maybe margins might just stabilize. After all utility-level storage now has many competitors all offering highly integrated modular solutions. Tesla has advantages in packaging for sole transport, in product maturity, software cohesion, features and integration. Those may well give lower cost of production for Tesla. Still, each of their battery suppliers also sell integrated solutions. BYD, CATL (directly and indirectly), Huawei, Honeywell, Siemens, LG, Samsung and so on.

I have no doubt the market is gigantic, rising every day. Margins are more likely to have stabilized than to continue rising. Tesla is not making their own batteries for these, unlike, say, CATL, BYD, Samsung and LG.

Again I’m very bullish on this market, how not to be? Demand will exceed supply for years, maybe decades, even if it were limited only to peaker replacement, grid services, renewable intermediation, remote locations and industrial power. It is NOT so limited.

Hi, unk45 --

> I have no doubt the market is gigantic, rising every day.

Agreed.

> Demand will exceed supply for years, maybe decades,

But I'm not following you here. As you point out, there are plenty of capable competitors already. I don't think entry is challenging for established industrial/energy/engineering firms -- like, "Joe's Bait, Tackle & BESS" isn't going to fly, but if GE, say, wanted to get in, they could. Again, look at the size of the 40GWh Lapthrop plant to get a sense of how hard it is to scale. It's possible that growth will be limited by component supply --batteries, inverters, coolant systems,, etc -- but I don't see how that helps margins for the pack manufacturer.

I think this is a real business, and a valuable one, but that some people (not necessarily you) are getting carried away. On a bearish note, who's to say the industry doesn't go down the path of solar PV? Check out the P/S ratios of companies in the solar space!

Yours,
RP

 

[LuckyManX]

And that is perfectly fine. If 100 million adults in the key demographic are watching, let’s assume 60% cant afford a Tesla even with the tax credit.
Of the remaining 40 million, assume half already know what a Tesla costs and will learn nothing new from the ad.

Of the 20 million left, assume 15 million fall in the category you describe and would never consider electric or Tesla.

The ad just educated 5 million potential buyers that Tesla’s are not as expensive they thought.
Assume 5% will purchase a new car this year and you just generated 250K possible sales leads. That is $28 per sales lead. Ask anyone in the car sales business if that is expensive.

There is a significant proportion of potential Tesla buyers out there who think Teslas are much more expensive than they really are.

Speaking just for the 2 of us. We hate the invasion of ANY advertising into ANY facet of our lives, sporting events, streaming movies, news, shopping, etc.. It's particularly bad in hockey when the players have their concentration broken for a 'TV timeout' - just so some Carnival Barker can shout its pitch at us. Now they've found the tech to display a streaking dot along the back boards -- at the very moment when the skaters are concentrating on passing and scoring! Totally distracting. We'd NEVER spend our cash on ANYthing spit out at us like that. Totally offensive. Thank you. I feel much better now.

 

[scaesare]

Curious why you didn't highlight the "1984" ad, the original viral Chiat/Day/[email protected] collaboration.

Indeed... for those of us that saw the full-minute(!) Superbowl ad live (aired once, and never again), it was an iconic moment that ushered in a new era in computing.

Despite the fact that your average Coors-drinking football fan in 1984 didn't know a computer from a hole in the ground, it was pretty effective at creating a buzz around the product...

 

[scaesare]

What a waste of time…

‘Boycott Tesla’ ads to air during Super Bowl — The Washington Post

Tesla critic Dan O’Dowd is funding a Super Bowl ad campaign highlighting dangers of the company’s driver-assistance software for the second year in a row.

stocks.apple.com

As was mentioned, paywalled... but man, given the cost of a Superbowl ad, that's one determined (obsessed?) dude...

 

[UkNorthampton]

As was mentioned, paywalled... but man, given the cost of a Superbowl ad, that's one determined (obsessed?) dude...

Last one wasn't national USA. All 12 people who saw it might have been affected. As is Dan.

 

[Tachyon]

As was mentioned, paywalled... but man, given the cost of a Superbowl ad, that's one determined (obsessed?) dude...

Mypillow kinda guy. He needs help.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Used EV car price reality, FYI. We’re getting lumped in with the rest.

He mentions how Hertz dumped all their Tesla inventory. Maybe the older models, as usual, but aren't they cycling through with new ones? If so, he conveniently left that out.

Anyway, pretty easy to scare off any new buyers with this data, and it doesn't appear exaggerated. Hidden within is still the Tesla growth, but it is not mentioned here.

Tesla price drops aside, I can only imagine how much of these price drops on non-Teslas are due to a lack of charging infrastructure? And only half those superchargers are available next year, with a bulky adaptor.

Throw in typical 250 mi range and some winter storms, it’s a very bad look for EV’s today. We’re gonna get lumped in, it’s too complicated for most.

Public will not understand what we know here. Tesla is still ramping, still making bank, and still gaining marketshare (at least outside China anyway).

This “secret” is our TSLA investment advantage. Few are aware of these facts. Hopefully Tesla lets out the secret, even if it means they have to pay for it. But I’m not holding my breath either as my buy orders are ready.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Used EV car price reality, FYI. We’re getting lumped in with the rest.

He mentions how Hertz dumped all their Tesla inventory. Maybe the older models, as usual, but aren't they cycling through with new ones? If so, he conveniently left that out.

Anyway, pretty easy to scare off any new buyers with this data, and it doesn't appear exaggerated. Hidden within is still the Tesla growth, but it is not mentioned here.

Tesla price drops aside, I can only imagine how much of these price drops on non-Teslas are due to a lack of charging infrastructure? And only half those superchargers are available next year, with a bulky adaptor.

Throw in typical 250 mi range and some winter storms, it’s a very bad look for EV’s today. We’re gonna get lumped in, it’s too complicated for most.

Public will not understand what we know here. Tesla is still ramping, still making bank, and still gaining marketshare (at least outside China anyway).

This “secret” is our TSLA investment advantage. Few are aware of these facts. Hopefully Tesla lets out the secret, even if it means they have to pay for it. But I’m not holding my breath either as my buy orders are ready.

Before car shortages, companies like Hertz might negotiate huge discounts, run the cars and sell them after use for more than purchase cost.

So I heard... can't be sure.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Before car shortages, companies like Hertz might negotiate huge discounts, run the cars and sell them after use for more than purchase cost.

So I heard... can't be sure.

I think your rumor is possible if the purchase is a killer deal to start with - likely frustrating Hertz had to pay full price and lost on both ends it seems. I've done this (made money) with boats and a camper once. (Trick is to make everything work, and spit-shine it top to bottom).

Maybe the Business Model needs to change (and much more). How long before Hertz becomes robotaxi only with some historic ICE vehicles? Heck, Tesla can already sell us a car remotely, why not just rent me one Tesla... for the next 15 minutes say. That's what I see very soon.

This no-driver version of FSD is obviously the case where no driver can interfere with vehicle controls. This may be important to properly identify who's at fault as accidents will happen and today it's mixed human/FSD.

So it just shows up driverless, yours for as long as you want to rent it, even send it somewhere along with stuff. Like if I wanted to fly to Vegas, and the car takes all my belongings, picks me up at the airport and then WE drive off to the game together. Now that's some value... don't miss that pop. Full robotaxi happens later with the unboxed version. (All opinions, based on facts and experience. YMMV)

 

[FielderJones]

He mentions how Hertz dumped all their Tesla inventory. Maybe the older models, as usual, but aren't they cycling through with new ones? If so, he conveniently left that out.

He mentions how Hertz dumped all their Tesla inventory. Maybe the older models, as usual, but aren't they cycling through with new ones? If so, he conveniently left that out.

I just rented a Model Y last month and drove it from San Diego to Long Beach. I would say they are still cycling, and just selling off the really high mileage ones.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1756751879701156059

 

[jerry33]

I just rented a Model Y last month and drove it from San Diego to Long Beach. I would say they are still cycling, and just selling off the really high mileage ones.

Correct. Although MSM quoted a large number (23,000), that was for all cars. They sold 600 and some (memory says 641) Teslas at that time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

As was mentioned, paywalled... but man, given the cost of a Superbowl ad, that's one determined (obsessed?) dude...

Last year, Dan O'Downer only paid to run his 'ads' in select markets: Mostly State capitals and D.C. I think he even charged his California Senate campaign for these 'ads'. Shameful abuse, worthy of an IRS audit, IMO.