Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

This gives a huge disproportionate advantage to Tesla due to its large number of deployed camera-enabled, connected vehicles. Nobody can catch up. MAYBE byd, in theory. But certainly not soon.

I trivial question I'm surprised I'm asking only now: does BYD cars have cameras? Are they collecting data?

 

[Curt Renz]

Because of the market holiday Friday, today is a weekly options expiration day. Based on today’s TSLA options activity, it appears that $177.50 could be the most profitable closing target for big options writers with the ability to temporarily manipulate the share price.

 

[Usain]

Nobody can catch up. MAYBE byd, in theory. But certainly not soon.

The company that wants to catch up is the one willing to put FSD-style hardware in all their cars. No large automaker has done that yet.

Without the hardware, you can't gather the data. Without the data, you can't catch up.

 

[Tony73]

Speaking purely theoretically:
If each 9 has 10x the situations which each occur at 1/100 the frequency (1/10 overall occurance), then it would need 10x the compute at each step.
However, it seems unlikely that so many unique cases would be needed.
1. Don't hit things
2. Don't get hit by things
3. Don't break laws (in general) and get to destination

I would suggest that when it comes to rare corner cases, Tesla has barely begun to scratch the surface. There are an almost infinite array of possibilities. Tesla will be finding them for decades.

The good news is that it will be not be worth anyone’s while to try and catch up. It would take too much time and cost too much money. Licensing FSD and autonomy from Tesla will be the only viable path for most automakers. At least outside of China

 

[Usain]

I have been seeing a number of commercials about the Lightening lately. Maybe that will help?

You make a good point that it looks like every other F150 so nothing to draw people to it on lots. Maybe CT will have F150 fans begin asking about an electric pickup from Ford?

Before the Cybertruck, the Lightning's biggest selling point was the home backup system. The problem was, it didn't work well enough to serve as a reliable backup.

If Ford had promoted the snot out of home backup (and it worked), it would have generated enough buzz to keep demand high. "Oh, I can also plug in my power tools? This is just what I need!".

Another problem is that if Ford had made the Lightning too compelling, it would hurt ICE truck sales. And that would kill the company as people stop buying profitable ICE while they wait for the unprofitable Lightning.

Alas. This is the quandary of the OEMs. If you don't make a great EV you are toast. On the other hand, if you do make a great EV you are toast.

 

[Knightshade]

Before the Cybertruck, the Lightning's biggest selling point was the home backup system. The problem was, it didn't work well enough to serve as a reliable backup.

The bigger problem, from the new owner at work I just talked to about this was it was $10,000 extra in electrical work/parts. He told me "I'll just run a drop cord from the truck into the house during an outage- I did pay $700 for a dumb interlock switch to avoid feeding back to the grid, so $700 and having to plug in one cord and flip one switch seems to beat $10,000 for it to be no cord and no switch."

 

[Usain]

I trivial question I'm surprised I'm asking only now: does BYD cars have cameras? Are they collecting data?

Some BYD cars do have cameras. Not sure about all the models.

But cameras aren't much help in collecting data and developing an FSD-like system unless you also have something akin to the FSD computer.

From what I see, BYD does have plans to start putting Nvidia's Drive Thor computer in at least some vehicles in 2025.

Also note that in 2023, a spokesperson for BYD said, “We think self-driving tech that’s fully separated from humans is very, very far away, and basically impossible." So BYD has had some catching up to do.

 

[Usain]

The bigger problem, from the new owner at work I just talked to about this was it was $10,000 extra in electrical work/parts. He told me "I'll just run a drop cord from the truck into the house during an outage- I did pay $700 for a dumb interlock switch to avoid feeding back to the grid, so $700 and having to plug in one cord and flip one switch seems to beat $10,000 for it to be no cord and no switch."

I think your colleague at work is right.

The best thing about the Cybertruck's solution will be that it actually works.

 

[Gigapress]

I wonder if folks waiting for a native NACS port, rather than having to futz with an adapter, is playing in to this at all.

I'm rather disappointed, as the F-150 Light(e)ning felt like it light be a vehicle to helpe segu the average "truck guy" in to EV's. That and Farley seemed to be willing to put (some) company politics aside and cooperate with Tesla on things....

I had hoped it would be a runaway success that would force Ford to pursue EV's more significantly....

The Lightning was, evidently, rushed to market without Ford taking the time to engineer it better. Likelihood of runaway success was low. The Munro Live video from October 2022 showed this.

The Good

• Development shortcuts enabled Ford to get this out to market faster
• Stuff successfully routed through small crevices to enable giant frunk that's easy to access even for people who are short
• Some differences in frame design vs. ICE F-150 improves effective performance of the shocks
• Sturdy structure
• Some structural cradles in legacy ICE design deleted
• Rims look futuristic
• Much simpler than Rivian R1T chassis

The Bad

• Basically a traditional gas F-150 architecture that was retrofitted in a hurry in order to have an electric powertrain
• Horrible system integration; mostly a chaotic hodgepodge of off-the-shelf modules purchased from suppliers
• Coolant hoses and extra wires and fasteners all over
• Ugly mess, which makes installation more difficult and makes defects less visually self-evident
• Traditional body-on-frame construction inherently heavier and less stiff than Cybertruck aerospace-style stressed skin design (4 mm thick stamped parts in many locations to compensate for inferior geometry)
• No castings, frame assembly requires many stamped parts and fastening and welding operations
• Inefficient non-structural monuments that only perform crash safety functions but do not support other loads
• Battery mounts to big, heavy stamped steel subframe
• Simple spring suspension without adaptive height and stiffness

View attachment 864794 View attachment 864795 View attachment 864796 View attachment 864801 View attachment 864802 View attachment 864804 View attachment 864806 View attachment 864811 View attachment 864812

This is the latest generation of America's best-selling truck for the last four decades. Ford appears to have learned no lessons from the Mach-E thermal management disaster, or their design process is so slow and rigid that implementations of the fixes have been postponed until future model years. This is the result of not even bothering to take EVs slightly seriously until 2018 and having a typical 7-year product development timeline.

North American pickup trucks are the most profitable vehicle segment in the whole global auto industry, and Cybertruck's competitive advantage is much stronger than I had estimated before seeing this video.

Remember last year when their new Mach-E Chief Engineer, Donna Dickson, had this awkward interview on Munro Live in which she acknowledged the problems with the Mach-E coolant hoses, but kept framing it as a learning effort? Learning appears to be moving very slowly for the F-150 Lightning.

• Nothing in the thermal system appears to be integrated. The Lightning appears to have two separate air conditioning units, multiple coolant pumps, and a resistive heater. No heat pump, Octovalve or Supermanifold. Potential coolant leak points all over, some near electrical components. Mechanic expressed concern about short circuit faults, but that's just speculation.

• The F-150 still uses what appears to be a big lead-acid 12V battery but the technician in the video didn't say anything about it. Tesla has moved on to Li-ion for the 12V auxiliary batteries in the latest generation of S, X and Y. This saves about 10 kg of mass and takes up about 1 liter less volume.

• Underbody is not aerodynamic. Heavy gauge steel shield for battery. I have no idea why they didn't just make it flat like Tesla does, which is much better for airflow. Maybe there's a reason I'm not thinking of.

• Carries an extra wheel, which adds about 30 kg. Cybertruck prototypes have not shown an extra tire and the design is an "insane technology bandwagon", so maybe this means Cybertruck will use the standard onboard air compressor to keep tire pressure stable when a leak occurs, which would work long enough to get to a tire shop. Best spare is no spare.
  • Tesla has a patent for automatic tire inflation for the Semi and versions of this idea have been done on military vehicles.
    • Tesla Wins Patent for Automatic Tire Inflation System for its Semi Truck - TeslaNorth.com
  • Suspension will use the compressed air, and so there is already going to be compressed air tubes going to all four wheel wheel cavities anyway.

• High-voltage wire harnesses (the orange ones) are all over the place and mostly exposed. This is not optimal for technician safety. Notice in Exhibit 3 how, in contrast, on the Texan Model Ys the high-voltage harnesses are all buried deeper inside the car, out of the way of hands and sharp objects that might cut the protective insulation and expose the metal wires inside.

This will be a nice luxury truck but maintenance of the coolant system will be a nightmare it seems, and all the extra weight, complexity and aerodynamic issues will make this truck seriously inferior to Cybertruck on manufacturing cost and on specs.

Exhibit 1: Bowl of Spaghetti
View attachment 851390


Exhibit 2: Lead-acid 12V?
View attachment 851394

Exhibit 3: Model Y from Giga Texas - Full View
Notice how looking at this doesn't hurt your eyes, and how small and tightly packed the system is. Bear in mind, this frunk cavity is smaller than the F-150 cavity, yet all the stuff is so much more compact that it seems roomier in a picture.
Source: Munro Live (link)

View attachment 851396

Exhibit 4: Model Y from Texas - Corey pointing out that 12V is Li-ion Now

View attachment 851398


Exhibit 5: F-150 Underbody
View attachment 851400

Exhibit 6: Cybertruck Underbody from 2020
Nice and smooth
Source: link
View attachment 851409

Exhibit 7: Model 3 Underbody from 2018
Also nice and smooth.
Source: link
View attachment 851413

Exhibit 8: Mach-E Bowl of Spaghetti
At least there aren't orange high-voltage wire bundles all over.
Source: link
View attachment 851432

 

[Stretch2727]

Good response from Rohan on a NYT hit piece on China supporting Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773388243389788228

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Good response from Rohan on a NYT hit piece on China supporting Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773388243389788228

This is the PR that Tesla has needed for a while. It's nice to see official responses to inaccurate/false stories.

 

[scaesare]

So where did they go wrong? Is the pricing the problem? Is there a performance metric problem? Is there a dealership problem? Something else or all of the above?

Perhaps it’s as simple as, Ford is not recognized by its proponents, followers, fans et al as an EV company in America? A Lightening isn’t a Tesla. Selling feature for hardcore fans of Ford and Tesla haters, but anyone serious about an EV, who’s done a bit of research - would they go out on a limb and be an early adopter? Or are a lot of Ford fans waiting a few years to see how it plays out?

Didn’t Ford do a hybrid Focus or some such years ago? I vaguely remember it and something about problems or discontinued or something? Does anyone remember?

Yeah, I suspect it's seen as an outlier in the truck community, and very little being done to win folks over. And I suspect the average truck fan does less self-education than the demographic that would consider a Tesla, so there's probably unanticipated ownership aspects that doesn't translate in to good word-of-mouth....

 

[scaesare]

The Lightning was, evidently, rushed to market without Ford taking the time to engineer it better. Likelihood of runaway success was low. The Munro Live video from October 2022 showed this.

I recall seeing that... but how many people are going to watch that and make a buying decision based on components they'll never see or wouldn't be able to personally evaluate if they were well engineered or not?

 

[scaesare]

Spellcheck for the win! Perhaps some subconscious dislike for the company sneaking in as well.

Oh, I assumed that was deliberate based on our making fun of ol' Jimmy last year:

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Another free ad for CT, Doug Demuro with a 4.8M audience

 

[FreqFlyer]

Before the Cybertruck, the Lightning's biggest selling point was the home backup system. The problem was, it didn't work well enough to serve as a reliable backup.

If Ford had promoted the snot out of home backup (and it worked), it would have generated enough buzz to keep demand high. "Oh, I can also plug in my power tools? This is just what I need!".

Another problem is that if Ford had made the Lightning too compelling, it would hurt ICE truck sales. And that would kill the company as people stop buying profitable ICE while they wait for the unprofitable Lightning.

Alas. This is the quandary of the OEMs. If you don't make a great EV you are toast. On the other hand, if you do make a great EV you are toast.

Would not write off Ford just yet. They may not have FSD, but they seem to be fast learners.

Ford's Next Electric F-150 Might Ditch Lightning Name, Get Platform Shakeup | Carscoops

Ford is working on two next-gen EV platforms that will drive down costs and make the Model e division profitable

www.carscoops.com

 

[Gigapress]

I recall seeing that... but how many people are going to watch that and make a buying decision based on components they'll never see or wouldn't be able to personally evaluate if they were well engineered or not?

Many probably won't watch it, but it's unlikely the Lightning is making positive gross profit or is easy to produce. That's why runaway success was always unlikely, even if there was much more demand for the truck.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Another free ad for CT, Doug Demuro with a 4.8M audience

I think he must have used the word "cool" about 50 times. It got a higher score than the Rivian R1T

 

[mongo]

I think he must have used the word "cool" about 50 times. It got a higher score than the Rivian R1T

Cyberbeast (AWD was reviewed) should get a better acceleration score than Hummer EV.
Steer by wire should have bumped up handling number also (my opinion).

 

[kbM3]

As the march of 9s progresses, the amount of driving needed to collect the samples increases, but training size only depends on the number of situations, not their rarity. 10x the raw data is filtered down to some number of units of training data.
Needing an order of magnitude compute increase implies there is an order of magnitude increase in training cases (or NN size, or blend thereof). This could be, however that may indicate an overfit/ overtrained NN versus a more generalized one that can handle both sampled and abstracted driving conditions.

Can’t an order of magnitude compute be used to shorten the iteration cycle on training instead? I.e. handling 10X more training data is not the only use for it.