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Wha does this line from the original post imply?
"If the situation moves to general advertising I will sell"

How is this a horrific reading comprehension problem?
I don't get it. Elon said years ago that Tesla would advertise when the time was right. I'm pretty sure most of us who were against advertising defined advertising as Main Stream Media advertising (aka paying protection money). Tesla hasn't done any that I'm aware of.
 
For >the last decade I have not sold a share of TSLA except for paying taxes and buying a house. On this forum and elsewhere I have been clear that a major trigger for me to sell would be the advent of general advertising. Recent events have caused me to put TSLA on my watch list. Placements to date have been highly targeted but recent use off exceedingly expensive media, including Facebook introduce higher risk.

I have not yet sold a share. If the situation moves to general advertising I will sell.

This si only indicating the careful watch, not a sale. They might just be using excellent analytics, particularly since nothing broad has yet happened.

I know numerous people think it is excellent to advertise for general awareness. I regard such opinion as erroneous simply because of inability to target likely purchasers for a product which is not and likely will not be, so ubiquitous as, say, Ozempic or Snickers or Wheaties, all of which benefit from broad advertising with modest targeting. Not so for cars, trucks and energy products.

I'd like to think Tesla's management would approach advertising strategically, working from first principles, as they do everything else. If they didn't, that would be a departure from the norm and worthy of concern.

The key aspects as to what they are aiming to achieve will paint that picture. The last thing I would expect is a shotgun approach like we see so often with other OEMs. Throwing good money after bad toward advertising with their feel-good and "green-washing" presentations which may not always reflect the available product, nor the brand's actual intentions.

It seems like, up till now, advertising has not been necessary for Tesla. At least not until production is exceeding deliveries to the tune other auto makers are already experiencing with their ICE and BEV products. (to the point that legacy are pausing production for their BEV products they cannot manufacture and sell profitably) Right now the TAM has many potential buyers that have been untouched on several continents. So, Tesla has this in their favor. They can continue to grow production and expand into new markets. But, advertising probably isn't a big factor for places that desparately want to have a Tesla buying option (as well as the charging infrastructure).

The one wild card that might justify Tesla mounting an advertising campaign would be to raise awareness about the benefits of BEVs to the consumer. That is, not just advertising to sell Tesla models, but, ramping up the spread of knowledge and facts regarding BEVs in general, as well as Tesla models and features specifically. Doing so would place a burden on the purveyors of FUD by providing their audience with the other side of the story. A side that the broader audience have been denied, except via word of mouth, as Tesla has been growing. ( Which highlights the wisdom of, "If it ain't broke, don't try to fix it" )

Tesla is probably aware of how any push to advertise can be a fight with a double-edged sword, as the FUDsters can and will twist facts to support their perspective.

Add to this how the FUDsters have more experience with psy-ops campaigns, a huge budget, and are highly motivated to thwart attempts to hasten their demise. They have footholds established across the realm of the "mainstream" and Tesla will be charting the new territories across the digital realm, as there be dragons in the mainstream.

Has the advance of sustainable energy and electric transport reached that key moment where it would be advantageous to take on those ancient and fierce creatures by backing them into a corner? I don't know. Many seem to think it is overdue, but many also believe that advertising always works.

What if it is a resounding success? What then?

Will Tesla and other BEV manufacturers be able to meet the demand if advertising amplifies orders for product beyond what existing battery and vehicle production can sustain? This could be either good or bad. It might light the fire under the supply side to step up their game, or, under the government agencies to loosen the regulatory burdens that hinder growth in key industries.

If manufacturers can not rise to meet demand, how will this affect the consumer in maintaining their desire for a BEV, which was cultivated with advertising?

Will the desire remain strong in the face of long waits for product? Or, could it backfire, leaving a wake of disappointed consumers who are unable to fill the call for product in the timely manner they have become accustomed to after decades of instant-gratification in the auto marketplace?

For now I'll hold on to my faith that Tesla will design and execute their advertising approach so that the spread of knowledge increases in such a way that popular opinion is shifted toward support for all aspects of the transition, while stoking the fires of anticipation for getting their hands on their own BEV over time.

An advertising push may need to feel like a slow march building to a crescendo, rather than a sprint.

If Tony Seba's study of historical disruption is any clue, we may in hindsight see how the S-curve mapped how the affect of advertising for this disruption is executed to pace itself with the exponential growth of the transition.

It seems fitting to expect this from the people at Tesla to do this as well as they do everything else.

HODL
 
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Another Q - I remember a note to Alexandra Merz, from Moody's, in the last 2 years saying that TSLA's investment grade wouldn't go higher until they show Cybertruck at volume production. What constitutes volume production?

If TSLA goes to a higher grade, then there's a lot of money that'll need to flow into the stock just for being at a higher investment grade, right?
 
I am not going to answer for @unk45 - if he chooses to say why to those of you who ask - but I am going to say that any of you who question him is showing that you either don’t pay attention or have a horrific problem with reading comprehension or have joined this group more recently than eight seven six five four three two one years week ago

How so? Why do people have a "horrific problem with reading comprehension" when questioning this statement:

I have not yet sold a share. If the situation moves to general advertising I will sell.

Please elaborate AudubonB, because your post comes off a tad insulting to the posters who questioned Unk45 without stating why you think his saying he will sell his TSLA if they go to general advertising is a reasonable decision. 🤔
 
In that youtube video, the analyst talks about Tesla getting 15% of the stationary storage market and Tesla eventually getting $200B of value from it...which seems super low judging how large that market is.
Most analysts just go by the past and assume no or steady growth. None think exponentially (except for perhaps Kathy and analysts discount what she says).
 
Thinking about exponential growth led me to ponder the bottlenecks to growing the Tesla presence in Showrooms, Service Centers, and in expanding and maintaining the Charging infrastructure.

One bottleneck will be how to train people to do the jobs well when those numbers of Tesla folks will be growing at such a rate.

Has anyone seen indications for how Tesla is designing their training for these jobs in such a way that quality is being maintained and continuing education for these field agents both initially and ongoing is accomplished?

Edit: to include Tesla Energy product Installation and Service
 
I've made million of dollars by selling a product at an average selling price of ten to twelve dollars, and the overwhelming majority of my customers have come either directly or indirectly through advertising.
Despite this, its a product that has only sold 3.5 million units globally.
The idea that a CAR is not a good product for advertising is absolutely ludicrous. Cars are the PERFECT advertising subject. Why?

The 2nd biggest consumer purchase expenditure for people is their car. There are a lot of competitors, and at first glance not much variation. You can spend $1,000 on ads PER SALE and still get a decent ROI. (My Ad spend was about $2 per sale) Its also pretty clear what demographics buy new cars, so its easy to target them, especially given data in disposable income etc.
The 1st biggest expense is of course a home, but homes are generally unique and cannot be mass-branded and packaged like cars.

If you invented advertising for the first time today, they very first product it would be applied to would be cars. The only reason Tesla got this far without ads is that there was a large unserved and information hungry audience for exactly what they wanted, who were motivated to seek out information, and zero competitors. Tesla embracing advertising was inevitable, perhaps a bit overdue. Its still TRIVIAL compared to every other car company, which spend a lot on ads, despite losing money on every EV.

BTW facbeook ads are not expensive at all. Think $0.30 per click, if you know what you are doing. $0.15 on X or reddit. I don't care if people dispute these numbers, as I have the invoices. I know what I pay. And no, you are not charged more on X or facebook because its a car ad...

TL;DR: Ads work. HOLD.
As a self-employed Floridian, damn health insurance premiums are my number #2 expense, now followed by homeowners insurance, and due to greedy county politicians #3 is now property taxes. #5 is autos.
 
Ads - the economy is getting worse in the USA for the working class. Inflation is worse than reported and people are starting to either run out of money or make the decision to spend less. I've posted about this before at greater length and detail. If you're retired and doubt this post, go talk to younger working families.

I know plenty of people that desire a Tesla, do not care what Elon says on X, and cannot afford a Tesla even at the lower prices.
 
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Q - how much $$ revenue would it take for Tesla Energy's Megapacks to take on a material effect on the quarterly financial statement? Not solar and solar roof, just megapacks themselves?

For example -

Solar Roof is a long long way from being a real option beyond the top 0.1%. I recently was quoted $185,000 to replace my Florida roof. I ended up replacing my roof with the same architectural asphalt shingles for $17,000. Solar Roof also does not come close to matching the hurricane wind rating as asphalt shingles, and would likely result in issues with insurance coverage due to this fact.
 
In that youtube video, the analyst talks about Tesla getting 15% of the stationary storage market and Tesla eventually getting $200B of value from it...which seems super low judging how large that market is.

As usual in such interviews there is little depth to the discussion. The guest seems to be well informed, and I'm left presuming he was using that $200B in regard to annual TE revenue in the future. If so, that would be from both the TE sales as well as the Service agreements that are the gift that keep on giving with Megapack and Autobidder software products.

He also mentioned how his price target, just shy of $300, was only 10% based upon Tesla's auto business. So, he's well aware of the upside for AI / FSD, Robotics, and Energy aspects.

It may be that the analyst is purposefully conservative in his estimate. That might be prudent at this time while battery supply isn't able to support faster production levels.
 
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What an odd investing strategy. You are so advertising averse you are willing to sell TSLA on the verge of both FSD and Optimus breaking out into profitable businesses within the next few years?

What is it about advertising you hate so vehemently? 🤔
We have had in this thread and others much discussion. You chose to make a sentiment attributed to methane have never held and never said. I used the word 'general' numerous times and have explained target marketing numerous times. I made that the focus of my PhD and have practiced various parts of advertising including general advertising
( print, broadcast, and digital forms.) I have practiced that in four continents and several countries.

Since you obviously do not understand the basics, else you would not have misunderstood my post, I will elaborate slightly (more details would turn into 'Marketing 400: Targeting'.

In very short,
-the more generic the product the more likely: 1) broadcast advertising, 2. event sponsorships/advertising (e.g. The Super Bowl) and 3) various types of generic special offers (couponing, etc) all make sense.
- the more specialized and/or novel the product is the more likely early adopter techniques such as clubs, owner/user referral/recruitment are valuable, with more extensive use of direct contact with major influencers such as government entities, shareholders and influencers.
-as specialized products or infrequently purchased ones (e.g. Cars, planes, boats, houses) mature the challenge is to avoid wasting resources on general advertising while expanding the more direct and targeted forms. Tesla is now in the midst of that maturation.

Tesla, specifically, is responding to retail investors desires to 'advertise' when nearly all of them have exactly zero expertise. That means Tesla is facing a dilemma: how to satisfy those retail investors while not wasting money?

Using social media is, thus far, a useful tool for Tesla. However, the more general forms of social media placement today are approaching the cost of broadcast advertising. Thus very precise targeting is crucial to reduce 'cost per qualified reach'. Current state of the art is deeply concentrated with search-based placements. That itself is risky because search is NOT equal to 'qualified'. Qualification includes inferences of geolocation, link history, dwell time and such demographics and psychographics as are available in the specific case.

That is the very, very short summary of the issues, and is why I am now watching and monitoring with all available resources including proprietary media monitoring sources.
Tesla has been, until now, one of the most apt direct marketers in the world.

The issues are all related to how well they can maintain that discipline. Enter Facebook, a notorious difficult place to optimize for cost-effictiveness. That is the specific trigger.

Finally, anybody who knows me knows I do not hate advertising. In fact, it is among my most valuable professional qualifications. It has been responsible for much of my career success.

I seriously Hate wasting money. I hate wasteful advertising. The would of auto manufacturers is full of really bad choices, many of them due to ignorance.

Examples of excellent marketers, excluding SpaceX and Tesla both of which qualify: Gulfstream, Airstream, Airbus, Ferrari, Porsche. Note that each of those has been notably more profitable than have been other competitors. Then, to general products: Mars, Apple, Amazon. Note the latter all use clever general advertising coupled with adept direct marketing to major forces, including distributors and retailers.

So, Please do not misunderstand what I said and attribute sentiments to me I do not and never have had!
 
So you will sell because of advertising even though FSD, Optimus etc all seem around the corner...?
Not to mention M2/Q mass market car by 2026?

Did you sell Apple because of advertising? :)
I have posted the actual details. If you read them you'll understand why I have not sold a share in Apple and do not have them on my watch list despite obvious government challenges and rapidly growing competition.
To repeat : I am NOT anti-advertising at all.
 
I have posted the actual details. If you read them you'll understand why I have not sold a share in Apple and do not have them on my watch list despite obvious government challenges and rapidly growing competition.
To repeat : I am NOT anti-advertising at all.
this line might have caused the confusion - "If the situation moves to general advertising I will sell"

& now folks are kinda questioning our reading abilities ;)

cheers!!
 
I'd like to think Tesla's management would approach advertising strategically, working from first principles, as they do everything else. If they didn't, that would be a departure from the norm and worthy of concern.

The key aspects as to what they are aiming to achieve will paint that picture. The last thing I would expect is a shotgun approach like we see so often with other OEMs. Throwing good money after bad toward advertising with their feel-good and "green-washing" presentations which may not always reflect the available product, nor the brand's actual intentions.
Definitely, and all they have done today has not done that.
It seems like, up till now, advertising has not been necessary for Tesla. At least not until production is exceeding deliveries to the tune other auto makers are already experiencing with their ICE and BEV products. (to the point that legacy are pausing production for their BEV products they cannot manufacture and sell profitably) Right now the TAM has many potential buyers that have been untouched on several continents. So, Tesla has this in their favor. They can continue to grow production and expand into new markets. But, advertising probably isn't a big factor for places that desparately want to have a Tesla buying option (as well as the charging infrastructure).

The one wild card that might justify Tesla mounting an advertising campaign would be to raise awareness about the benefits of BEVs to the consumer. That is, not just advertising to sell Tesla models, but, ramping up the spread of knowledge and facts regarding BEVs in general, as well as Tesla models and features specifically. Doing so would place a burden on the purveyors of FUD by providing their audience with the other side of the story. A side that the broader audience have been denied, except via word of mouth, as Tesla has been growing. ( Which highlights the wisdom of, "If it ain't broke, don't try to fix it" )
This is one of the greatest issues. Tesla does not have any portable way to raise general interest in EV's. The world is doing that, with many governments promoting EV adoption and industry press is raising awareness. Further each new OEM is raising awareness and even opponents are raising awareness. Tesla advertising to build awareness is a complete waste fo money and unnecessary anyway., The single best tool for raising awareness is the presence fo rapidly increasing retail customers who act as 'word of mouth.' Word of mouth is the Holy Grail of Marketing. I am amazed and dismayed by the inability of many of us to understand that Tesla is past master at 'referral codes' etc, which acts to spread the word. Then, nearly all of us are blithely unaware about the Tesla awareness program that beats every other one, Easter Eggs and infotainment. Does anybody really think that putting rear screens on a Model 3 is not about raising awareness and understanding among the next generation of buyers?
I repeat general advertising will not build awareness among qualified buyers in any remotely economic way.
As for 'qualified buyer' in the previous case. When I was five years ago my father bought a specific car because I pestered him so much. Today that pestering sells Tesla.
Tesla is probably aware of how any push to advertise can be a fight with a double-edged sword, as the FUDsters can and will twist facts to support their perspective.

Add to this how the FUDsters have more experience with psy-ops campaigns, a huge budget, and are highly motivated to thwart attempts to hasten their demise. They have footholds established across the realm of the "mainstream" and Tesla will be charting the new territories across the digital realm, as there be dragons in the mainstream.

Has the advance of sustainable energy and electric transport reached that key moment where it would be advantageous to take on those ancient and fierce creatures by backing them into a corner? I don't know. Many seem to think it is overdue, but many also believe that advertising always works.

What if it is a resounding success? What then?

Will Tesla and other BEV manufacturers be able to meet the demand if advertising amplifies orders for product beyond what existing battery and vehicle production can sustain? This could be either good or bad. It might light the fire under the supply side to step up their game, or, under the government agencies to loosen the regulatory burdens that hinder growth in key industries.
Responding to this point requires a missive about institutional marketing. FWIW, check SpaceX to see how this is done par excellence! There are many others who do this well, but most of them are not household names. Check Washington DC, Brussels etc local market advertising for clues. This is an arcane field, one in which Tesla has excelled. For the best single practitioner check Gynne Shotwell bio. Nobody comes close to her, globally. Refer to Starlink global licenses if you doubt that.
If manufacturers can not rise to meet demand, how will this affect the consumer in maintaining their desire for a BEV, which was cultivated with advertising?

Will the desire remain strong in the face of long waits for product? Or, could it backfire, leaving a wake of disappointed consumers who are unable to fill the call for product in the timely manner they have become accustomed to after decades of instant-gratification in the auto marketplace?

For now I'll hold on to my faith that Tesla will design and execute their advertising approach so that the spread of knowledge increases in such a way that popular opinion is shifted toward support for all aspects of the transition, while stoking the fires of anticipation for getting their hands on their own BEV over time.

An advertising push may need to feel like a slow march building to a crescendo, rather than a sprint.

If Tony Seba's study of historical disruption is any clue, we may in hindsight see how the S-curve mapped how the affect of advertising for this disruption is executed to pace itself with the exponential growth of the transition.
The forgoing seems to misunderstand how advertising relates to other parts of marketing.
In general products advertising generates demand, sometimes. In specialized products it does not. Sadly, most automotive CEOs and their staff don't understand that, and after all, the advertising industry is very, very adept at selling the C-suite. That is a book-length subject.
It seems fitting to expect this from the people at Tesla to do this as well as they do everything else.

We can only hope.
I've been doing that for a decade. HODL demands constant vigilance to ensure one does not hold, say, Xerox or Kodak too long.
 
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We have had in this thread and others much discussion. You chose to make a sentiment attributed to methane have never held and never said. I used the word 'general' numerous times and have explained target marketing numerous times. I made that the focus of my PhD and have practiced various parts of advertising including general advertising
( print, broadcast, and digital forms.) I have practiced that in four continents and several countries.

Since you obviously do not understand the basics, else you would not have misunderstood my post, I will elaborate slightly (more details would turn into 'Marketing 400: Targeting'.

In very short,
-the more generic the product the more likely: 1) broadcast advertising, 2. event sponsorships/advertising (e.g. The Super Bowl) and 3) various types of generic special offers (couponing, etc) all make sense.
- the more specialized and/or novel the product is the more likely early adopter techniques such as clubs, owner/user referral/recruitment are valuable, with more extensive use of direct contact with major influencers such as government entities, shareholders and influencers.
-as specialized products or infrequently purchased ones (e.g. Cars, planes, boats, houses) mature the challenge is to avoid wasting resources on general advertising while expanding the more direct and targeted forms. Tesla is now in the midst of that maturation.

Tesla, specifically, is responding to retail investors desires to 'advertise' when nearly all of them have exactly zero expertise. That means Tesla is facing a dilemma: how to satisfy those retail investors while not wasting money?

Using social media is, thus far, a useful tool for Tesla. However, the more general forms of social media placement today are approaching the cost of broadcast advertising. Thus very precise targeting is crucial to reduce 'cost per qualified reach'. Current state of the art is deeply concentrated with search-based placements. That itself is risky because search is NOT equal to 'qualified'. Qualification includes inferences of geolocation, link history, dwell time and such demographics and psychographics as are available in the specific case.

That is the very, very short summary of the issues, and is why I am now watching and monitoring with all available resources including proprietary media monitoring sources.
Tesla has been, until now, one of the most apt direct marketers in the world.

The issues are all related to how well they can maintain that discipline. Enter Facebook, a notorious difficult place to optimize for cost-effictiveness. That is the specific trigger.

Finally, anybody who knows me knows I do not hate advertising. In fact, it is among my most valuable professional qualifications. It has been responsible for much of my career success.

I seriously Hate wasting money. I hate wasteful advertising. The would of auto manufacturers is full of really bad choices, many of them due to ignorance.

Examples of excellent marketers, excluding SpaceX and Tesla both of which qualify: Gulfstream, Airstream, Airbus, Ferrari, Porsche. Note that each of those has been notably more profitable than have been other competitors. Then, to general products: Mars, Apple, Amazon. Note the latter all use clever general advertising coupled with adept direct marketing to major forces, including distributors and retailers.

So, Please do not misunderstand what I said and attribute sentiments to me I do not and never have had!

I'm not sure what "sentiments" you think I attributed to you, but this statement by you is what I found perplexing:

"If the situation moves to general advertising I will sell"

I don't believe I have an issue with reading comprehension as that statement is fairly straightforward. I'm just confused because you seem intelligent, so you must also realize the progress on FSD and Optimus signal very large revenues and profits in the "near" future. In this context stating you'll sell all of your TSLA if they start general advertising seems odd to me, as any advertising budget will easily be dwarfed by FSD + Bot revenues down the road.

It's possible I misunderstood you, I'm just not sure where or how I did? 😕