Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cobbler]

Model Y LR RWD coming!

 

[NicoV]

Audi Brussels (which manufactures only EV’s, e-trons) eliminates 371 temp workers due to lack of demand.
The production is currently paused for several weeks already and should resume on 8 April, but at a lower speed.

Audi Brussel schroeft productie terug, 371 tijdelijke werknemers verliezen hun baan

www.vrt.be

 

[unk45]

For >the last decade I have not sold a share of TSLA except for paying taxes and buying a house. On this forum and elsewhere I have been clear that a major trigger for me to sell would be the advent of general advertising. Recent events have caused me to put TSLA on my watch list. Placements to date have been highly targeted but recent use off exceedingly expensive media, including Facebook introduce higher risk.

I have not yet sold a share. If the situation moves to general advertising I will sell.

This si only indicating the careful watch, not a sale. They might just be using excellent analytics, particularly since nothing broad has yet happened.

I know numerous people think it is excellent to advertise for general awareness. I regard such opinion as erroneous simply because of inability to target likely purchasers for a product which is not and likely will not be, so ubiquitous as, say, Ozempic or Snickers or Wheaties, all of which benefit from broad advertising with modest targeting. Not so for cars, trucks and energy products.

 

[JusRelax]

Looks like the FSD 1-month trial is starting to go out to some:

Here's what it looks like (not sure if this is in the car or in the app. I'm guessing it's in the app):

 

[Usain]

For >the last decade I have not sold a share of TSLA except for paying taxes and buying a house. On this forum and elsewhere I have been clear that a major trigger for me to sell would be the advent of general advertising. Recent events have caused me to put TSLA on my watch list. Placements to date have been highly targeted but recent use off exceedingly expensive media, including Facebook introduce higher risk.

I have not yet sold a share. If the situation moves to general advertising I will sell.

This si only indicating the careful watch, not a sale. They might just be using excellent analytics, particularly since nothing broad has yet happened.

I know numerous people think it is excellent to advertise for general awareness. I regard such opinion as erroneous simply because of inability to target likely purchasers for a product which is not and likely will not be, so ubiquitous as, say, Ozempic or Snickers or Wheaties, all of which benefit from broad advertising with modest targeting. Not so for cars, trucks and energy products.

Everybody has their own investment thesis and their own financial situation. And I respect yours.

But with everything else going on at Tesla, advertising strategy seems like such a small thing on which to base a sell decision. Are you sure this is the hill you want to die on?

 

[elasalle]

For >the last decade I have not sold a share of TSLA except for paying taxes and buying a house. On this forum and elsewhere I have been clear that a major trigger for me to sell would be the advent of general advertising. Recent events have caused me to put TSLA on my watch list. Placements to date have been highly targeted but recent use off exceedingly expensive media, including Facebook introduce higher risk.

I have not yet sold a share. If the situation moves to general advertising I will sell.

This si only indicating the careful watch, not a sale. They might just be using excellent analytics, particularly since nothing broad has yet happened.

I know numerous people think it is excellent to advertise for general awareness. I regard such opinion as erroneous simply because of inability to target likely purchasers for a product which is not and likely will not be, so ubiquitous as, say, Ozempic or Snickers or Wheaties, all of which benefit from broad advertising with modest targeting. Not so for cars, trucks and energy products.

So you will sell because of advertising even though FSD, Optimus etc all seem around the corner...?
Not to mention M2/Q mass market car by 2026?

Did you sell Apple because of advertising?

 

[Mengy]

For >the last decade I have not sold a share of TSLA except for paying taxes and buying a house. On this forum and elsewhere I have been clear that a major trigger for me to sell would be the advent of general advertising. Recent events have caused me to put TSLA on my watch list. Placements to date have been highly targeted but recent use off exceedingly expensive media, including Facebook introduce higher risk.

I have not yet sold a share. If the situation moves to general advertising I will sell.

This si only indicating the careful watch, not a sale. They might just be using excellent analytics, particularly since nothing broad has yet happened.

I know numerous people think it is excellent to advertise for general awareness. I regard such opinion as erroneous simply because of inability to target likely purchasers for a product which is not and likely will not be, so ubiquitous as, say, Ozempic or Snickers or Wheaties, all of which benefit from broad advertising with modest targeting. Not so for cars, trucks and energy products.

What an odd investing strategy. You are so advertising averse you are willing to sell TSLA on the verge of both FSD and Optimus breaking out into profitable businesses within the next few years?

What is it about advertising you hate so vehemently?

 

[Unpilot]

What an odd investing strategy. You are so advertising averse you are willing to sell TSLA on the verge of both FSD and Optimus breaking out into profitable businesses within the next few years?

What is it about advertising you hate so vehemently?

Seems clear @unk45 is NOT selling. He said pretty clearly he is watching....NOT selling.

 

[Zero CO2]

Sometimes I just wish he would not say this. Just let it play out with the new releases.

Anyway, Elon is optimistic this is solved!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773661808722948559

I view Elons optimism as his greatest leadership strength ..." Ya gotta believe "

 

[Tony73]

Sometimes I just wish he would not say this. Just let it play out with the new releases.

Anyway, Elon is optimistic this is solved!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773661808722948559

He’s optimistic it’s solvable

 

[Zero CO2]

Looks like the FSD 1-month trial is starting to go out to some:

Here's what it looks like (not sure if this is in the car or in the app. I'm guessing it's in the app):


View attachment 1033290

I assume this is 12.x ... gotta say i am a bit irritated that i paid for FSD and still don't have 12.x on my vehicle

 

[Stretch2727]

What an odd investing strategy. You are so advertising averse you are willing to sell TSLA on the verge of both FSD and Optimus breaking out into profitable businesses within the next few years?

What is it about advertising you hate so vehemently?

For me if you heavily advertise this is sign your product has become commoditized. Some of the major manufactures spend $1500-2000 per car on advertising. Better to spend that money on product innovation and bring in customers that way. I think back to Honda in the 80's where there was little advertising and the cars sold themselves.

I think we are in this situation because Elon thought FSD would be solved much earlier. This would be the innovation to bring in lots more buyers rather than flashy new models as is traditionally done in the auto business.

 

[AudubonB]

I am not going to answer for @unk45 - if he chooses to say why to those of you who ask - but I am going to say that any of you who question him is showing that you either don’t pay attention or have a horrific problem with reading comprehension or have joined this group more recently than eight seven six five four three two one years week ago

 

[cliff harris]

I've made million of dollars by selling a product at an average selling price of ten to twelve dollars, and the overwhelming majority of my customers have come either directly or indirectly through advertising.
Despite this, its a product that has only sold 3.5 million units globally.
The idea that a CAR is not a good product for advertising is absolutely ludicrous. Cars are the PERFECT advertising subject. Why?

The 2nd biggest consumer purchase expenditure for people is their car. There are a lot of competitors, and at first glance not much variation. You can spend $1,000 on ads PER SALE and still get a decent ROI. (My Ad spend was about $2 per sale) Its also pretty clear what demographics buy new cars, so its easy to target them, especially given data in disposable income etc.
The 1st biggest expense is of course a home, but homes are generally unique and cannot be mass-branded and packaged like cars.

If you invented advertising for the first time today, they very first product it would be applied to would be cars. The only reason Tesla got this far without ads is that there was a large unserved and information hungry audience for exactly what they wanted, who were motivated to seek out information, and zero competitors. Tesla embracing advertising was inevitable, perhaps a bit overdue. Its still TRIVIAL compared to every other car company, which spend a lot on ads, despite losing money on every EV.

BTW facbeook ads are not expensive at all. Think $0.30 per click, if you know what you are doing. $0.15 on X or reddit. I don't care if people dispute these numbers, as I have the invoices. I know what I pay. And no, you are not charged more on X or facebook because its a car ad...

TL;DR: Ads work. HOLD.

 

[scaesare]

I totally agree...and I'd expect better from a review by Doug Demuro.

I didn't see much of anything he did to actually test the handling. No mountain roads. Not even a U-turn. Without actually testing it, Steer by Wire and 4 Wheel Steering are just specs....and it's easy to say they don't do much if you're just toodling around on suburban streets and the freeway, where handling doesn't usually matter.

On the other hand, one of the early reviews put the Cybertruck up against a professional driver in a go-kart on a tight track full of tight turns:

Of course, it was done, in part, for comedic effect...and who knows what the specs on the go-kart were. But the reviewer was thoroughly impressed, and calmly narrating and reviewing while driving this giant truck quickly around tight corners while being chased by the kart. I'd like to see how the Hummer or Rivian or Lightning would handle around a similar course...

Yeah, I don't watch a lot of online reviews as it seems most have very little structure to their approach and tend to talk about random or obvious stuff. I've seen a couple of Doug's and know he has a reputation for better. Brownlee I don't really find compelling either... not sure how he got his following, ws it his early phone reviews?

But, back to CT specifics: While some "general impression" wrap up is good at the end, the meat of a review should focus on the vehicle's applicability to the intended usage, and then focus on unique aspects. For CT, in addition to SbW/4WS I'd expect some deep dive into mega casting/frame, steel skin, driveline capability, etc...

Also, that go-cart vid reminds me of the rollover tests for the X.... I'd like to see those, and other crash test vids, for CT...

 

[replicant]

He’s optimistic it’s solvable

News at 11

 

[elasalle]

x

I am not going to answer for @unk45 - if he chooses to say why to those of you who ask - but I am going to say that any of you who question him is showing that you either don’t pay attention or have a horrific problem with reading comprehension or have joined this group more recently than eight seven six five four three two one years week ago

Wha does this line from the original post imply?
"If the situation moves to general advertising I will sell"

How is this a horrific reading comprehension problem?

 

[scaesare]

Unfortunately mods have no control at all over the software. I've reported it to the admins.

As a weekend aside, thanks for all the effort in trying to corral all us misfits here. Appreciate it.

 

[scaesare]

My advice is to turn off the ability to add tags, except for the original poster in that specific thread. If that's not possible, turn the feature off except for mods.

Especially now that the cat's out of the bag...

 

[Etna]

As Tesla production volume keeps increasing, there is a point where advertising becomes unavoidable. I think that time has arrived.

I was staffing the Tesla booth at the Quebec Auto Show about a month ago. Club Tesla Quebec sets it up with over 40 club members present on site and Tesla gives us an amazing support by lending new cars and several of their employees - both sales reps and techs to answer questions and take orders or test drives. Big payoff in terms of sales - I have seen some numbers.

This year we had six models: S, new 3, X, Y, Cybertruck from Tesla plus an original Roadster from a Club member. Apparently it was the first time Tesla had six different car models at any auto show.

Talking to dozens and dozens of people visiting our booth (comparatively one of the most visited), the vast majority still believe Tesla has both a long delivery waitlist and a high price - Tesla is still perceived by most as a luxury brand that is out of their reach. I would say 80% are walking in with that assumption. Two couples I talked to had just placed an order with another EV brand and told me they wish they had known.

Most rewarding conversations I had was with people walking in with no intent to buy an EV and asking me about all these never-ending recalls, fires, winter issues, hours of charging time, etc. just to challenge me and feel good about their choice to not consider an EV, ever. It usually takes less than a minute to see the eyebrows go up.

Most people just have no idea about Tesla.

This photo was taken just before opening to public as we were getting ready - the place was always packed: