Given that, as an investor (or a test if I really am one), I started to think more specifically about Robo-Taxis and how they might really work in my life and the lives of people I know. It is one thing to parrot "it is a gazillion dollar industry!" or "It will never work" - it is another to try to model it out...not with the goal of proving it works or doesn't, but with the goal of simply trying to see if it fits your use cases or how it could.
My wife and I are older and neither of us is currently working (although if TSLA keeps dropping I likely will be...but I digress), so we modeled for us and then discussed my son and his wife with two little kids (in car seats)....and then larger families. We also discussed the interplay between FSD on your PERSONAL car and Robo-Taxis. Here is some of the stuff we covered in a discussion this morning:
Commuting
Commuting back and forth to work seemed like an obvious use-case. It has a reasonably predicable time each day for coming and going. The challenge - you need a lot of RobotTaxis of course (as noted in other discussions) since commute windows are "peak" utilization.
Grocery Runs
A grocery store run requires two rides - one there and one back. The one there is relatively easy. The one back is different as it requires you load groceries into the trunk/frunk and when you get home, the car has to sit and wait for you to unload it...preferably close to a door nearest to your kitchen. In our case, that would be a door INSIDE our garage. So, for this use case, the car will need to have software capable of:
- implementing a "wait" mode (i.e. don't drive off right after you drop me off)
- park "here" specifically
- implementing an "extend wait for x more minutes" (i.e. little Johnny had to go to the bathroom, need car to wait while I handle that before I unload those groceries) - would text user to let them know "Hey, I am still waiting...do you want to continue or can I leave?", etc.)
Multi-Errand
When out and about we often run multiple errands. In some cases, the car will need to have software modes to just "wait here" while the user goes inside (i.e. to pick up dry cleaning perhaps or a prescription). In other cases, if an errand was going to take a while (like going to the doctor) before the next one, you will be better off terminating that trip. and then summoning another taxi when done (to either take you home or head to next errand (i.e. pick up a prescription after that doctor visit).
One thing that starts to become clear, is that you need a lot of Robo-Taxis in many cases to satisfy the "go here, do something for a while and then go home or to the next place". I do however, think that a Robo-Taxi might just "sit" somewhere (like the grocery store) after it drops you off there...if it gets another call, you will be summoning one to come get you when you are done. If not, it is there ready for you when you come out.
Spur of the Moment Stuff
Lots of errands are spur of the moment or less "scheduled". This can be solved with RTs, but really comes down to the need for a volume of them.
Kid Car Seats
If you have kids or know anyone with kids you can appreciate the challenge of car seats. They are often huge, multi-part (carrier plus base), rear-facing (taking up a lot of space), and unique. Children are in rear-facing seats for YEARS now (this ain't the 60s/70s). In a RoboTaxi model some options might be:
- Rider brings the car seat and installs it themselves - this is practically a non-starter for most parents
- Robotaxis have "convertible" seat options where one or more seats can do some "flip around magic" to have a car seat (or car seat "base" at least) appear at the push of a button or whatever. Volvo has a simple booster seat option similar to this, but rear-facing seats are, of course, more complex.
- There could be Robo-taxis with dedicated child car seats
I do think a "universal" base for car seats would help here as owners might be willing (in SOME cases) to just slot their carrier into a universal base. Note that carriers are typically just used for babies and very small toddlers (i.e. my 1 year old grandson is in a carrier sometimes, but his 3 year old sister is obviously not).
Big Families
A 6 person family where everyone is going to church or a ball game or wherever will obviously need more seats in any vehicle - with some of them potentially being kid car seats, etc. In this case, larger "mini-van" style Robo-taxis will be needed. This seems pretty-straightforward. Ultimately, it will come down to the percentage of people needing X. Mini-van taxis will be produced in the quantities the market requires. Indeed, I could see the RT world with two predominant forms - the 2 seater and the mini-van (call it a 6 seater).
Hauling Stuff
This and other use-cases start to become a little more "one-off" for the AVERAGE person. They could be addressed with dedicated vehicle types or just leave them as rented standalone cars.
Your life
My recommendation is to model trips you have taken over the last month against two things:
- Robo-Taxi
- Full Self Driving in your own personal car
As an example, on Monday nights my wife and I happen to attend two different Bible-studies at our church. Today, we have ONE car (note: my Tesla broke...and then broke again...and again...was compelled to sell it - a story for another time). Right now, her study starts at 6, and mine at 7pm. I was taking her at 6, driving home, driving back at 7 for my study, then (since hers ran longer than mine - she is a leader), either waiting around for her or going home only to turn around and go back and get her. A Robo-taxi would clearly help with that, but SO WOULD FSD IN MY PERSONAL CAR. She could take the car at 6pm and then "send it back home", for me and then I would drive (or it would drive me) it to my 7pm and back home...and then I send it back to the church to get her...basically, it becomes our own personal taxi (but w/o a driver).
Any overlapping event scenario starts to become very interesting for either a personal car with FSD or RoboTaxi world. If I wanted to see one child's school play, while simultaneously needing to pick a second child up from band practice, I could either leverage RoboTaxis OR drive to my child's school in my own car and then SEND my personal car (with FSD) to get the second child. Heck, the latest Uber ads are clearly targeting this kind of thing. When any parent sees those Uber ads they are concerned about the Uber driver (in a world of "don't talk to strangers!") - which is why the ads purposefully talk about only the best drivers, etc. getting these drives. Now take that fear away with no driver in a RT or your own personal car (with FSD).
At first, it seemed like the RT would be a pain in the butt to deal with, but the more I really challenged it the more it seemed to work. Certainly, I started to see complimentary scenarios where both RTs and personal cars with FSD would be great. The combination of the two makes a "one car family" a LOT more feasible than I imagined.
TLDR - lots of Robo-Taxis with specialized seating combined with personal cars with FSD likely works for a huge number of use cases.
Finally, one additional tidbit. Jordan from "The Limiting Factor" recently test drove the Cybertruck (which does not currently have FSD), and posted a short video afterwards noting that he missed FSD from his current Tesla, BUT not just as a "convenience"...he recognized he has become somewhat "reliant" on it and it was a little jarring (my words) dealing with driving without it. Driving may just be something folks just don't want to "deal with" over time. Heck, very few shift their own gears these days. They don't even like to unlock their car or even have to use the fob now!
