Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I don't want to presume to know too much about you but judging from your posts here, it seems like you and some other like minded posters are rather here to feed your confirmation bias.

And yet you did.

If so, that would be a form of what Troy referred to as "extreme fanboyism". Trying to stay open minded, objective and level headed is good for your success as an investor, in my view.

You literally don’t know, do you?

 

[Musskiah]

Typo

Not sure what you disagree with about my perspective. Seems we’re on the same page. But whatever.

I love that post of yours. Mad props as always. I was just adding some color of my own to the "chess" bit.

 

[jerry33]

It never ceases to amaze how the usual suspects (Reuters, Bloomberg, Business Insider, etc) don't cover timely solutions Tesla delivers such as this...yet they always, ALWAYS inundate us with the problem. It's almost like the media focus is on the negative because they know the human psyche is developed to respond to negativity and fear disproportionately. Interesting that, yes?

That's certainly part of it, but most is that Tesla does not pay the advertising ransom. There have been plenty of negative possible stories for legacy auto that have never been aired or a best a one sentence blip. It's amazing what $100M can do to suppress bad news.

 

[Musskiah]

Just noting the words "long term" do not appear in this thread's title as you insist.

The root word "Invest" which appears in both "Investment" and "Investors" in the title is well known to imply "long term" as opposed to "Trade" which typically implies "short term."

 

[Webeevdrivers]

IF Elon believes that there's a "red wave" coming in November during the US election, it stands to reason that the recently passed IRA, which funds the EV tax rebates, could be seen as vulnerable to change in 2025. I wonder if this influences his calculus for RT priority. This is a political comment, but relevant. Please resist partisanship- keep replies relevant to this thread and appropriate.

I think for sure it affects the factory in Mexico decision. The more than likely president in 2025 has already indicated he will put a 100 percent tariff on Mexican vehicle imports. That would screw up plans for a model 2 type vehicle out of Mexico. It will also devastate ford EV (and other) vehicle sales in the US.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

8/8 event is proving to be even more important than usual.

I think the vote on Elon's compensation package is the most important thing right now. If that package isn't approved I think he may have a backup plan that most of us won't like.

Elon wants to have 25% control over the direction of Tesla AI. If he can't get that, plan B will be to split up the company in a way that gets him that control. It will probably be Tesla Auto, Tesla Energy, and Tesla AI. Elon will go with Tesla AI.

 

[KBF]

Not sure if this has been mentioned here, but it's a good reminder things are still happening in multiple areas for the company: Tesla Semi pilot expands to Martin Brower

Another customer for the Semi pilot project. I like the glowing reviews by the drivers: while I wish they would ramp Semi quicker, it's nice that they are being careful to gain real world feedback before ramping that up. Sounds like the central driver position is a hit, and maneuverability in real world situations is elite.

If the OEM's are scaling back their EV production, hopefully that means more worldwide battery availability for things like a Tesla Semi fleet. I'd love to have silent Semi's cruising my local highways rather than obnoxiously loud legacy rigs with their annoying air brakes that wake up the neighbourhood...

 

[Matias]

Meh. People are fickle, have short memories, are happiest when judging others as less than themselves, and think they know better.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I think the vote on Elon's compensation package is the most important thing right now. If that package isn't approved I think he may have a backup plan that most of us won't like.

Elon wants to have 25% control over the direction of Tesla AI. If he can't get that, plan B will be to split up the company in a way that gets him that control. It will probably be Tesla Auto, Tesla Energy, and Tesla AI. Elon will go with Tesla AI.

If he has enough power to do that, then why does he need even more power?

 

[MP3Mike]

Miles per disengagement (classified by seriousness)

How do you propose that Tesla determines the seriousness classification? I personally don't want Tesla to waste money having a ton of humans watch the captured video for every disengagement and guess as to why the driver disengaged. Or even subjecting employees to listening to all of the voice notes people send in, if they do at all. (From what some people say they submit for voice notes that would be considered exposing them to violence in the workplace by my employer. Not to mention there are a lot of people that don't have WiFi for their vehicle, so the videos never get uploaded, only limited non-video data goes to Tesla.)

 

[uscbucsfan]

How do you propose that Tesla determines the seriousness classification? I personally don't want Tesla to waste money having a ton of humans watch the captured video for every disengagement and guess as to why the driver disengaged. Or even subjecting employees to listening to all of the voice notes people send in, if they do at all. (From what some people say they submit for voice notes that would be considered exposing them to violence in the workplace by my employer. Not to mention there are a lot of people that don't have WiFi for their vehicle, so the videos never get uploaded, only limited non-video data goes to Tesla.)

Multiple people at Tesla have said in the past that they track and hold value in critical disengagements. It's likely automated.

 

[EVNow]

How do you propose that Tesla determines the seriousness classification?

What does Tesla do with all the disengagement data now ? They need to have some way to classify them to address them, right ? I'm assuming some kind of semi-automated way to do it. Same for the voice recordings (which would be transcribed and sanitized automatically).

 

[bpjod]

I think there's some strong evidence now that at least part of the overall skill that FSD 12 demonstrates comes from annotated map data. Clearly, some users are driving around San Francisco right now without any interventions whatsoever. It seems the more miles that have been accumulated under FSD by the fleet, the better the map data becomes. So training does not occur solely with the neural networks, but also by the use of the auto labeler and subsequent uploading traffic control and Lane data to the mothership.

The CYBRLFT channel on YouTube has uploaded some striking examples of improvements in the same area, without updating FSD revisions, but also after having had disengagements at the same location previously. People should know that it is these disengagements that are actually training the system, especially it seems for map data.

I'm finding this in my small town too and there's probably only 5-10 Teslas (2 of which are ours) driving around. Places where 12.x struggled once and I intervened are not a problem the next time through. Interesting behaviour.

Now if only I could get it to stop the malicious compliance with the NHTSA stop ruling. It's annoying having to stop twice at intersections - once to be in obeyance with NHTSA and a second stop to actually see if it's safe to enter the intersection. I'm convinced that if I ever get into an accident with FSD enabled, it will be because someone rear-ends me not expecting me to stop twice. What a stupid ruling.

Since NHTSA isn't Canadian, could we have that "feature" turned off here please?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

If he has enough power to do that, then why does he need even more power?

It would have to go to vote, like his compensation package, but entities such as Blackrock and Vanguard probably would approve it.
I admit, I know NOTHING about the inner workings of such things but I know Elon wants control over AI and this is the only alternative I can think of if his first choice falls through.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It never ceases to amaze how the usual suspects (Reuters, Bloomberg, Business Insider, etc) don't cover timely solutions Tesla delivers such as this...yet they always, ALWAYS inundate us with the problem. It's almost like the media focus is on the negative because they know the human psyche is developed to respond to negativity and fear disproportionately. Interesting that, yes?

That's the reason it shouldn't amaze you. Or maybe I missed the sarcasm.
It needs:
(1) Negative
(2) Of interest
(3) Believed
As long as people are interested, to get rid of the stories, you have to get to the point where too few believe it and start to ignore it. That's a tough nut to crack, especially given how much important stuff Tesla is currently having "deferred success" at.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I'm finding this in my small town too and there's probably only 5-10 Teslas (2 of which are ours) driving around. Places where 12.x struggled once and I intervened are not a problem the next time through. Interesting behaviour.

Now if only I could get it to stop the malicious compliance with the NHTSA stop ruling. It's annoying having to stop twice at intersections - once to be in obeyance with NHTSA and a second stop to actually see if it's safe to enter the intersection. I'm convinced that if I ever get into an accident with FSD enabled, it will be because someone rear-ends me not expecting me to stop twice. What a stupid ruling.

Since NHTSA isn't Canadian, could we have that "feature" turned off here please?

Does each version lean as it goes? When I got the free trial, it took a curve on my street in a wonky way. I didn't disengage, but ever since, it has take that curve just fine. I also had to disengage because it was going to miss an off-ramp from the freeway, but since that one time, it's always taken the off-ramp with no issue.

 

[2daMoon]

Earnings call next week is growing in importance IMO.

In what way is it growing in importance? Please elaborate.

Earnings calls have usually resulted in little significant effect. Often a "good" earnings call has a following drop in the SP. Then, over the next two weeks it recovers. Or not.

Sometimes a "bad" earnings call has done the same, or, the opposite.

I've come to accept that the effect of what happens at an earnings call is just as much a crap-shoot as guessing tomorrow's SP.

 

[MP3Mike]

Now if only I could get it to stop the malicious compliance with the NHTSA stop ruling. It's annoying having to stop twice at intersections - once to be in obeyance with NHTSA and a second stop to actually see if it's safe to enter the intersection. I'm convinced that if I ever get into an accident with FSD enabled, it will be because someone rear-ends me not expecting me to stop twice. What a stupid ruling.

Since NHTSA isn't Canadian, could we have that "feature" turned off here please?

I hate to break it to you, but Transport Canada has that recall as well: Recall Details - Canada.ca

Transport Canada Recall # 2023-063​

Issue:
In certain traffic situations, when the FSD Beta advanced driver assistance feature is engaged, the vehicle may perform maneuvers that break certain traffic laws, if the driver doesn't intervene and take control.
Note: This recall only affects vehicles equipped with the FSD Beta feature.

Safety Risk:
Certain maneuvers performed by the FSD Beta advanced driver assistance feature may break traffic laws. This could increase the risk of a crash if the driver doesn't intervene.

Corrective Actions:
Tesla will notify owners by email and supply an over-the-air software update to improve how the FSD Beta feature maneuvers the vehicle in certain traffic situations. Tesla reminds that FSD Beta is only an advanced driver assistance feature, and the driver must pay attention and be ready to take control at all times when the feature is engaged.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Not sure if this has been mentioned here, but it's a good reminder things are still happening in multiple areas for the company: Tesla Semi pilot expands to Martin Brower

Another customer for the Semi pilot project. I like the glowing reviews by the drivers: while I wish they would ramp Semi quicker, it's nice that they are being careful to gain real world feedback before ramping that up. Sounds like the central driver position is a hit, and maneuverability in real world situations is elite.

If the OEM's are scaling back their EV production, hopefully that means more worldwide battery availability for things like a Tesla Semi fleet. I'd love to have silent Semi's cruising my local highways rather than obnoxiously loud legacy rigs with their annoying air brakes that wake up the neighbourhood...

How about a Hybrid Semi?
(Where is Trevor Milton anyway?)

 

[AndrewZ]

I think the vote on Elon's compensation package is the most important thing right now. If that package isn't approved I think he may have a backup plan that most of us won't like.

Elon wants to have 25% control over the direction of Tesla AI. If he can't get that, plan B will be to split up the company in a way that gets him that control. It will probably be Tesla Auto, Tesla Energy, and Tesla AI. Elon will go with Tesla AI.

This vote going in Elon’s favour likely doesn’t mean the compensation package will proceed either way.