Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MD70]

Tesla can cut prices as much as they want. However until they start targeted marketing on individuals who can afford the vehicles and charge at home sales will not increase to meet the production.

A lot of consumers are not aware of how much it costs, the benefits of being able to charge at home and the supercharger network.

The question is how do you reach them.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Had to look that one up.

This thread is also great for expanding your vocabulary

Haha, take that one with a pinch of chicken noodle soup...

L'chayim!

 

[cliff harris]

For people worried that subscription FSD is too low. There is a long, long, long term plan here perhaps.
For people who regularly drive themselves to work and back, and at weekends, the $99 sounds reasonable, as its making something they perhaps find boring much less tiring and easier.
Fast forward two years
Now all those people are so used to using FSD in their daily commute, that they can't imagine not having it. They wouldnt buy a car without it, and would not unsubscribe unless desperate to save money. The price doubles, but people are so used to it, they grumble and pay
Fast forward five years
Kids are not bothering the expense and cost of learning t drive, because FSD is a thing, so why bother? Meanwhile everyone over 60 has already got used to a world where its not safe for anyone over 60 to manually control a car. FSD is so reliable you wouldn't waste money on a car with a steering wheel except for retro reasons. Price quadruples, but what are you seriously going to do?

 

[Ellec]

Tesla can cut prices as much as they want. However until they start targeted marketing on individuals who can afford the vehicles and charge at home sales will not increase to meet the production.

A lot of consumers are not aware of how much it costs, the benefits of being able to charge at home and the supercharger network.

The question is how do you reach them.

I think Tesla prefers word of mouth and letting the product do the talking. I am generally skeptical about marketing/adverts and find it can be manipulative and disingenuous. They also have to balance demand with production rates so can't generate so much demand people are annoyed when they can't get the product for months. I think they will be doing experiments with ads and analysing the results. The other thing is Elon can tweet something and it's immediately in front of tens of millions of peoples eyes, then all over the press, it would cost millions for another company to get the reach he gets for a single tweet.

 

[JusRelax]

IMO, Dillon from the Electrified youtube channel makes some convincing arguments as to why there is a possibility that the shareholder vote for Elon's previous comp package may not go the same as it did the first time.

Considering that there's even a slight possibility of that happening, I'd like to encourage everyone that owns shares to please make sure to vote this time around, regardless if you voted or not the first time!

 

[Christine69420]

IMO, Dillon from the Electrified youtube channel makes some convincing arguments as to why there is a possibility that the shareholder vote for Elon's previous comp package may not go the same as it did the first time.

Considering that there's even a slight possibility of that happening, I'd like to encourage everyone that owns shares to please make sure to vote this time around, regardless if you voted or not the first time!

I would if I could.

Unfortunately my shares is held trough a local bank.Which hold shares trough an US bank.

And somewhere along this route the link is broken and I cannot vote.

I fear this is true for many shareholders outside the US.

 

[Ellec]

I would if I could.

Unfortunately my shares is held trough a local bank.Which hold shares trough an US bank.

And somewhere along this route the link is broken and I cannot vote.

I fear this is true for many shareholders outside the US.

Same, I can't vote as shares are held with my UK broker H&L in a mix of ISA, Pension and trading account.

 

[jschwefel]

All Model S and X trims were dropped by $2k as well

I’m actually glad to see Tesla doing this. Inventory vehicles were already priced at these levels, but you had to go through a few more clicks to find them. Removing discounts, eliminating rewards and putting your best prices on the “front page” is simplifying pricing.

I suspect many will react negatively fearing the “D” word and the impact of these prices on margins. I’m not worried because at least some of it will be offset by lower labor and material costs and improved manufacturing efficiencies. And the reality is Tesla hit a demand limit of vehicle price and awareness as evidenced by the YOY sales decline. Something needed to be done and Elon is doing it!

Tesla focuses on price to drive sales. Based on the hundreds of thousands of similar and comparably priced ICE vehicles, I’d probably rather see them put more effort into raising awareness of their EV offerings and tapping into the emotional element of car buying. Everyone I’ve influenced to buy a Tesla has absolutely LOVED it, and several have gone on to buy another, in some cases ditching ICE altogether. While Influencers have been key to getting us to this point, I think more is needed to take us to the next level of sales.

But regardless of what I think, I know Tesla has a plan to grow sales and ultimately profits. Based on their actions, it seems that plan is to create great products with incredible features and capabilities, reduce prices, lower costs and advertise some.

In reality, isn’t that all we really want?

 

[SO16]

Tesla ending referrals. This is surprising.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781515203194106208

Just revamping

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781548359657918815

 

[Madeindex.org]

Elon said in 2010 he was planning to build a $30k vehicle.

$25k EVs already exist. Just not from Tesla.

I think it would have to be below that, as you could get a model 3 at 35k once upon a time

 

[Sunlight]

As a shareholder since 2014 and a regular reader of these pages, I too am slightly discombobulated by the current state of play.

Hear me out here - this is just a suggestion for your thoughts

It seems the major concern for all EV companies now is demand as all the low-hanging fruit may have been plucked - the next conquest sales will be far more difficult....We may not follow the traditional S-Curve here

All my reading and chatting to potential owners, it seems the main concern (besides price - fading away and range/charging - work in progress) is the longevity and cost of the batteries. This also impacts second hand values as the battery warranties terminate.

What would be the effect if Tesla increased the battery warranty to, say, 12 (or 15) years and the motor warranty to, say, 250k kms? All other manufacturers would be forced to follow along and the transition to EVs would be given a major boost.

This would cost Tesla nothing initially (well not for anther 8 years) and massively increase the sense of security for new owners and second hand buyers so holding up prices. IF Tesla believe that the vast majority of batteries will not fail in this time, then this should be a smallish cost long term to Tesla. If they don't have this sense of longevity, then the public has a right to be worried about older EVs.

If Tesla was a first mover they'd get plenty of publicity and advertising would be a simple message.

By the time any batteries required replacing, the cost should have dropped substantially in any event. Recycling should be common place by then and Tesla could merely recycle the failed batteries.

Is my logic flawed??!

 

[Singuy]

Tesla can cut prices as much as they want. However until they start targeted marketing on individuals who can afford the vehicles and charge at home sales will not increase to meet the production.

A lot of consumers are not aware of how much it costs, the benefits of being able to charge at home and the supercharger network.

The question is how do you reach them.

Word of mouth. This is why I always thought ads were dumb because beside the price, people will not be convinced with this new way of living with an EV until they are educated by an excited family member or friend.

 

[dhrivnak]

As a shareholder since 2014 and a regular reader of these pages, I too am slightly discombobulated by the current state of play.

Hear me out here - this is just a suggestion for your thoughts

It seems the major concern for all EV companies now is demand as all the low-hanging fruit may have been plucked - the next conquest sales will be far more difficult....We may not follow the traditional S-Curve here

All my reading and chatting to potential owners, it seems the main concern (besides price - fading away and range/charging - work in progress) is the longevity and cost of the batteries. This also impacts second hand values as the battery warranties terminate.

What would be the effect if Tesla increased the battery warranty to, say, 12 (or 15) years and the motor warranty to, say, 250k kms? All other manufacturers would be forced to follow along and the transition to EVs would be given a major boost.

This would cost Tesla nothing initially (well not for anther 8 years) and massively increase the sense of security for new owners and second hand buyers so holding up prices. IF Tesla believe that the vast majority of batteries will not fail in this time, then this should be a smallish cost long term to Tesla. If they don't have this sense of longevity, then the public has a right to be worried about older EVs.

If Tesla was a first mover they'd get plenty of publicity and advertising would be a simple message.

By the time any batteries required replacing, the cost should have dropped substantially in any event. Recycling should be common place by then and Tesla could merely recycle the failed batteries.

Is my logic flawed??!

No sound logic and this is what Hyundai did to break into the U.S. Market with their 100,000 mile warranty. Another low cost thing I wish they would add is V2H by adding a few 120v or even a 240v outlet so one could power home essentials if the grid were down. Add value for little cost.

 

[jerry33]

Speaking of Leaf, I thought it already occupied the "$25,000" slot, because when I bought 2017 Leaf it was close to that price, or even lower.
However, I just checked this dealer price at Dublin, CA, and it is surprisingly expensive:

• MSRP$38,890
• Net Cost$38,385
• Theft Recovery Device 1
  + $899
• EV Customer Bonus Cash 2
  - $1,000
• Dealer Asking Price$38,284

I don't think anyone considering buying an EV will ever choose Leaf instead of Model 3, and Model 3 should have 99% market share.
However, leaf still sells. Why?

By the time the dealer gets done with you, expect to pay $50,000 for a Leaf.

 

[jerry33]

That really concerns me very much.
$99/month is $6000 over a 5 years time-span, and that is not much on a $40,000 car. Let alone the take rate is probably less than 30%.
And before that happens, now they simply cut MY price by $2000 easily.

Only the Supervised version of FSD will be $99. Higher versions will be much more $299 is my guess.

 

[jamaatta]

Affordability is the key. An example from Finland:

"The car trade has stagnated, but the pace of electrification remains fast compared to the previous year. The number of fully electric cars increased by 71 percent on Finnish roads in one year. At the beginning of the year, the first registrations of fully electric cars have slightly decreased compared to last year, but at the same time, their imports as used have increased."

Uudet luvut julki: Suomen sähköautokanta kasvoi rajusti, mutta latausverkosto vielä nopeammin

Uudet luvut kertovat, että Suomen sähköautokannan kasvu jatkui vuositasolla nopeana osin autotuonnin ansiosta. Nopeiden laturien määrä autoa kohti kasvoi vielä paljon automäärää kovemmin.

www.talouselama.fi

 

[Snerruc]

Changing the subject, the UAW just won at VW Chattanooga. Several more elections are in process. The tide may have turned in the south, and Tesla is their big target. It will be interesting to see how this progresses. For those who don’t know, VW has wanted the union, and the workers fought it.

 

[DarkandStormy]

What the heck is going on…?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781511535304577062

The used car salesman tactic of raising prices didn't work. They must not have moved many units this month so far.

Anyway, RIP margins.

 

[Unpilot]

That really concerns me very much.

That seems to happen to you....a lot.

 

[mongo]

As a shareholder since 2014 and a regular reader of these pages, I too am slightly discombobulated by the current state of play.

Hear me out here - this is just a suggestion for your thoughts

It seems the major concern for all EV companies now is demand as all the low-hanging fruit may have been plucked - the next conquest sales will be far more difficult....We may not follow the traditional S-Curve here

All my reading and chatting to potential owners, it seems the main concern (besides price - fading away and range/charging - work in progress) is the longevity and cost of the batteries. This also impacts second hand values as the battery warranties terminate.

What would be the effect if Tesla increased the battery warranty to, say, 12 (or 15) years and the motor warranty to, say, 250k kms? All other manufacturers would be forced to follow along and the transition to EVs would be given a major boost.

This would cost Tesla nothing initially (well not for anther 8 years) and massively increase the sense of security for new owners and second hand buyers so holding up prices. IF Tesla believe that the vast majority of batteries will not fail in this time, then this should be a smallish cost long term to Tesla. If they don't have this sense of longevity, then the public has a right to be worried about older EVs.

If Tesla was a first mover they'd get plenty of publicity and advertising would be a simple message.

By the time any batteries required replacing, the cost should have dropped substantially in any event. Recycling should be common place by then and Tesla could merely recycle the failed batteries.

Is my logic flawed??!

Gross vehicle profit would take an immediate hit due to increased warranty reserves based on accounting firm predictions of failure rates. Given the bathtub curve of failures, and degradation in general, that may not be fiscally beneficial.
Reduced replacement cost and increased real world lifespan data may be sufficienly helpful given the battery warranty period is already longer than ICE powertrain warranties.