Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

Yeah, I'm thinking the comp plan reinstatement will be voted down. With Elon and Kimbal abstaining, I don't see where enough "yes" votes will come from. The glimmer of hope is that for the comp plan vote, they only need a majority of those voting.

This analysis from Harvard says that the move from Delaware to Texas has even less of a chance of passing because that one requires a majority of all stockholders, again with abstention from Elon and Kimbal.

The Gist of Tornetta

Sounds like a novel, right? Rather than our effort to distill to its essence the complicated, enormous lawsuit that TSLA shareholder Richard Tornetta won ...

corpgov.law.harvard.edu

If Elon is not actually trying to persuade/talk with big investors, I see few chances. Uncle Leo is probably voting "no", and why should Vanguard or Norges Bank vote "yes" this time?

The point is: what will be the consequences? I don't see Elon quitting (too much at stake) but I wonder.

 

[stef]

For all who hold Tesla shares at Postfinance (Bank in Switzerland) and would like to vote with their shares: I have just received the personal message that Postfinance does not offer this service. They only offer this service for shares that are traded on the SIX (Swiss stock exchange). I am currently considering switching to a ‘real’ broker, which unfortunately won't be of any use for the upcoming vote.

A few weeks ago I read different information in this thread from people who also have shares in Postfinance and there seemed to be more positive news. Unfortunately, I can no longer find the posts. Perhaps a Swiss person is reading this post and can help me with their experiences?

Can confirm the same reply to me from Postfinance. Also looking at alternatives... but too late for this time.

 

[phantasms]

Can we please keep the "the mainstream media lies!" BS off the thread.

History has not been kind to the fools who attempt to discredit the news.

And let's definitely not get into the irony concerning the credibility of many [most?] posts on X.

 

[stef]

... for anyone surprised we are down today ... Max Pain at 172.50

 

[EVMeister]

Can we please keep the "the mainstream media lies!" BS off the thread.

History has not been kind to the fools who attempt to discredit the news.

And let's definitely not get into the irony concerning the credibility of many [most?] posts on X.

Keeping an open mind is important, agreed. But that includes not only "accepting" the story that is written, but also critically analysing the source. Considering all evidence we have available, which includes the credibility of the source in this case, isn't "BS" - it's sensible.

 

[sunwarriors]

The inside story of Elon Musk’s mass firings of Tesla Supercharger staff

Some excerpts:

“After Tinucci had cut between 15% and 20% of staffers two weeks earlier, part of much wider layoffs, they believed Musk would affirm plans for a massive charging-network expansion.

The meeting could not have gone worse. Musk, the employees said, was not pleased with Tinucci’s presentation and wanted more layoffs. When she balked, saying deeper cuts would undermine charging-business fundamentals, he responded by firing her and her entire 500-member team.”…

“Tinucci was one of few high-ranking female Tesla executives. She recently started reporting directly to Musk, following the departure of battery-and-energy chief Drew Baglino, according to four former Supercharger-team staffers. They said Baglino had historically overseen the charging department without much involvement from Musk.”…

“The energy team that was assigned to take over charging-network management has some similar design and construction roles, two of the former Tesla employees said. But charging projects are fundamentally different because they are located in public places and require extensive negotiations with utilities, local governments and landowners, they said.The energy team was already struggling to keep pace with its current workload, said two of the former charging-network staffers.”

“On Friday, Musk posted that “Tesla will spend well over $500M expanding our Supercharger network to create thousands of NEW chargers this year….Two former Supercharger staffers called the $500 million expansion budget a significant reduction from what the team had planned for 2024 - but nonetheless a challenge requiring hundreds of employees. In an analysis provided to Reuters, San Francisco research firm EVAdoption estimated a $500 million investment this year would translate to Tesla building 77% fewer charging ports per month in the United States compared with the automaker’s pace through April.”

I think this was probably more likely how it went down and what I've been saying. Some videos/posts saying (not here) that she wouldn't even do 10% was probably not true as it seems unlikely a senior manager/director can't even handle a minor layoff.

She already did her 15-20%, Musk probably wanted a number much higher (we'll probably never know exactly what since I doubt Tinucci can ever talk about it) and she said her team can't function with such a large cut. Remember, this isn't 2018 when Tesla almost went under.

It's not going to be a good experience for anyone who's had issues with their Tesla solar and having to call the residential support team if they're the ones helping out. You usually get a diff rep each call with high turnover.
"Tesla's energy team, which sells solar and battery-storage products for homes and businesses, was tasked with taking over Superchargers and calling some partners to close out ongoing charger-construction projects, said three of the former Tesla employees."

 

[advocate8]

Keeping an open mind is important, agreed. But that includes not only "accepting" the story that is written, but also critically analysing the source. Considering all evidence we have available, which includes the credibility of the source in this case, isn't "BS" - it's sensible.

Sources of investor info sit along a spectrum of credibility. At the far end of that spectrum, you just reject and prob don’t waste time reading it. Reuters is somewhere in the middle as opposed to high credibility at the other end. So it’s generally worth reading their stuff and, as you say, thinking critically about that source, but then also thinking critically about each part of the contents and deciding how serious to take it.
Much of this story rings true.

 

[Opus BC fan]

 

[Zero CO2]

I did learn something from the Reuters report on SuC team ... Tinucci was now reporting directly to Musk ... previously reported to Baglino ...

i speculate

• Baglino did not want to make the necessary cuts ... so he leaves ..... step in Tinucci making a play for Baglino job ....
• Elon ..."ok Tinucci you want to be a senior leader in Tesla? then make the cuts i am looking for or you and the entire team are out "
• Tinucci " i cant do that , we need these folks to execute the SuC vision
• Elon " no you don't ... you need to get the rest of these OEMs and other "partners " to have some skin in the game ... why should Tesla bear all the SuC cost at this point "
• Tinucci " I can get rid of the team i put together "
• Elon " Ok then you are all out ... "

Moral sometimes it is better to have a layer of mgmt between you and the boss ... Baglino probably served that purpose and once he was gone his team including Tinucci was exposed to Elon ...Elon did not like what he was seeing and the results of this are playing out right now.. anyone esle under Baglino may be suspect

 

[LST]

For all who hold Tesla shares at Postfinance (Bank in Switzerland) and would like to vote with their shares: I have just received the personal message that Postfinance does not offer this service. They only offer this service for shares that are traded on the SIX (Swiss stock exchange). I am currently considering switching to a ‘real’ broker, which unfortunately won't be of any use for the upcoming vote.

A few weeks ago I read different information in this thread from people who also have shares in Postfinance and there seemed to be more positive news. Unfortunately, I can no longer find the posts. Perhaps a Swiss person is reading this post and can help me with their experiences?

Swiss here: I could vote my shares without any problem via my bank (middle size Private Bank), just send them my vote instructions on the 12 points on the agenda. If interested on more info, just PM me. and btw, I voted according to the recommendations of the board, yes I want EM to be compensated.

 

[2daMoon]

Sources of investor info sit along a spectrum of credibility. At the far end of that spectrum, you just reject and prob don’t waste time reading it. Reuters is somewhere in the middle as opposed to high credibility at the other end. So it’s generally worth reading their stuff and, as you say, thinking critically about that source, but then also thinking critically about each part of the contents and deciding how serious to take it.
Much of this story rings true.

So, your strategy is to read a news article from a source you agree can be sketchy, at best, and has a reputation for being more consistently wrong in its reporting on Tesla, historically.

Then, based upon how this story makes you feel (because unsubstantiated rumor is nothing to base critical thinking upon), you imply this is the moment to decide how seriously to take it?

It is a story, not fact, not supported, a rumor at best, and you feel it necessary to take it seriously because this "rings true" in your opinion?

Critical thinking should avoid taking rumor as if it is fact in any instance. (this is the very essence of the "critical" aspect)

Critical thinking would dictate holding the information and waiting to decide until AFTER you have found factual data to support it, or, the rumor is determined to be unfounded.

If you are unable to find support for the story in facts, critical thinking dictates that it NOT be taken seriously at all.

 

[hobbes]

If Elon is not actually trying to persuade/talk with big investors, I see few chances. Uncle Leo is probably voting "no", and why should Vanguard or Norges Bank vote "yes" this time?

The point is: what will be the consequences? I don't see Elon quitting (too much at stake) but I wonder.

If WSJ is right it looks like Robyn Denholm will be doing that job. Behind pay wall unfortunately..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790700516541878759

Convincing shareholders falls to Denholm, an Australian businesswoman who was on the board committee that negotiated the pay package and succeeded Musk as chair later in 2018. She has been reaching out to shareholders and the proxy advisers whose opinions, published ahead of the vote, hold important sway.

 

[Rarity]

As to the construction liens, as far as I can tell, that's just the way the construction business operates. None of Musk's businesses appear to be outside the norm in that regard. When you are spending more than a billion dollars on construction within a short period of time, 72 liens is nothing.

Following up on this, it appears that the construction liens are 1% or less of the construction costs. So basically de minimis. Kathy Leuders, head of Starbase, quoted $3 billion in infrastructure spending just at Starbase. More at McGregor and Bastrop.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790707647152374129

 

[Usain]

No baseline was provided- so saying "5-10x improvement" without saying from what number doesn't really tell you much.

Nor is this especially new- Tesla has shared such things like "69% improvement in FSD doing X" without telling you the base # in the FSD release notes for years now.

Elon says 12.4 is a 5x to 10x improvement in miles per intervention over 12.3. No matter what number you start from, it's quite significant. Rate of improvement is what matters here, even without all the details we would like to have.

At 5x improvement in miles per intervention, we can conclude that 12.4 will be noticeably better. That's what I'm counting on seeing in just a few days.

But if you assume that Elon is intentionally trying to mislead us, then I guess you are right to be skeptical.

 

[Linkmeup]

Elon says 12.4 is a 5x to 10x improvement in miles per intervention over 12.3. No matter what number you start from, it's quite significant. Rate of improvement is what matters here, even without all the details we would like to have.

At 5x improvement in miles per intervention, we can conclude that 12.4 will be noticeably better. That's what I'm counting on seeing in just a few days.

But if you assume that Elon is intentionally trying to mislead us, then I guess you are right to be skeptical.

I think removing the nudge was not only a signal, but going to be a huge improvement in how FSD feels while its in enabled.

 

[Rarity]

It sounds plausible but...it is a Reuters story so does not have the instant credibility it might otherwise have had. It's even slightly disingenuous to quote an article that itself is a reprint of the Reuters piece. Are there other more credible sources? As usual for Reuters this one quotes anonymous sources for a meeting none of whom even allegedly attended the primary meeting.

Haven't you heard? The whole Reuters team won Pulitzers for their Musk and Tesla reporting.

 

[alexxs88]

No baseline was provided- so saying "5-10x improvement" without saying from what number doesn't really tell you much.

Nor is this especially new- Tesla has shared such things like "69% improvement in FSD doing X" without telling you the base # in the FSD release notes for years now.

True, but the FSD tracker should provide some clarity on that. I'm expecting to see the average number of kms between interventions go from 100km to 500-1000km.

I think this was probably more likely how it went down and what I've been saying. Some videos/posts saying (not here) that she wouldn't even do 10% was probably not true as it seems unlikely a senior manager/director can't even handle a minor layoff.

I don't see any scenario in which the CEO of a company employing ~140 000 people gets angry at one person and ends up firing 500 instead can be painted in a good light. And I don't think any sane person that's actually highly skilled and in demand with a shred of dignity would go back after being fired in such a tantrum. Elon has a number of amazing qualities, but I'm amazed to see people defend such a move. And I hope nobody seriously believe that morale / productivity goes up by treating employees in this manner.

I must admit I'm really curious how the compensation vote is going to go and, even more importantly, how the market will react. The market didn't react at all when the package was struck down. My guess is that, if it's voted down, Elon won't leave and at most he'll push for a new compensation plan with new targets.

 

[MD70]

If Elon is not actually trying to persuade/talk with big investors, I see few chances. Uncle Leo is probably voting "no", and why should Vanguard or Norges Bank vote "yes" this time?

The point is: what will be the consequences? I don't see Elon quitting (too much at stake) but I wonder.

I don’t think Elon will quit. His ego won’t let him.
If it is voted down a new comp plan will have to be agreed to take into account the past performance and future milestones.

 

[Musskiah]

Can we please keep the "the mainstream media lies!" BS off the thread.

History has not been kind to the fools who attempt to discredit the news.

And let's definitely not get into the irony concerning the credibility of many [most?] posts on X.

You are then convinced that "the mainstream media" is in the business of selling you the truth?

 

[MD70]

I still dont understand why Berlin and Texas volume is so low.

Because if they produce the 3 and Y at the maximum production capacity, they will not be able to sell all the vehicles and it will be obvious as the inventory will increase.
Until demand increases Berlin and Texas will not be producing at the maximum capacity.