Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

At the moment we don't know if a secret sauce is even possible.
Right now we know for sure that self-driving is partially possible in two ways: the way Waymo does, with conditions and geofences and lidar and HD maps and the occasional remote takeover, and the way Tesla does, with billions of miles of driven data and NNs.
Both have limitations, and need in different ways *billions* of dollars capital.
This is the status quo.
A third, cheaper way has not been found yet.

Wayve.ai seems to have a very good model which works in UK cities without having specific training. They claim that the vast majority of the training has been in simulation and the online videos look brilliant in very challenging London streets. Looks like the software battle is on, but the war could be won by the fact that Tesla has millions of cars that are already hardware capable. No details of the hardware requirements/costs for integration of Wayve with OEMs, but looks like simple camera set up.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Yes. Around 60%? I don't remember.

Mmm, there were and there will be institutions that will vote No, and suggest to vote No. Uncle Leo voted No with his 27 millions shares. Morale is very low outside here, go check on X. This time will be a much closer call.

This is a long shot, but my impression was that Leo is lying, attention gathering, strategically to bring out the retail en masse. he knows the value of Elon, hopefully he is really voting yes. mibbee.

 

[nativewolf]

This is a long shot, but my impression was that Leo is lying, attention gathering, strategically to bring out the retail en masse. he knows the value of Elon, hopefully he is really voting yes. mibbee.

You do know how Glass Lewis and ISS came out on the issues?

 

[jeewee3000]

This is a long shot, but my impression was that Leo is lying, attention gathering, strategically to bring out the retail en masse. he knows the value of Elon, hopefully he is really voting yes. mibbee.

Would be a great outcome but I find this unlikely.

He would gather a lot more attention/receive a lot more praise if he shouted from the rooftops that he voted with the board on all fronts with his position.

 

[EQC_]

They buy them from the market as far as I know. So I get the underlying message of what you're saying, but it would be very hard for Tesla to buyback ~50% of their outstanding shares in order to make Elon's 12.9% effectively be 25.8%.

Agreed . I was viewing the buyback as one tool in the toolbox, not as the sole means to get him from 13% to 25%.
So, if other events get Elon closer to 25% in the coming years, then perhaps a buyback could be used as one more bump to get him the final step over the threshold, if needed.

 

[Mengy]

Leaves me wondering, 'what about those new models, the first of which could come as early as the end of the year?' I feel the coming new models Musk informed us about on earnings day were the main reason for the following pop in the stock to 198. Since then I have not heard a peep about them and little speculation here.

Are we really going to see new models/variants soon beyond just a Juniper Y?

I have a hunch Tesla's auto growth is going to stagnate for a bit while they prep for the new models to enter production. If the supplier rumors are true then a Model 2X is coming to Giga Austin by the end of 2026 and a Model 2 is coming to Giga Berlin in summer of 2027. These would likely be the new compact consumer EV's built with the unboxed process. The CyberCab is supposedly beginning production in Austin late 2025, this will be the first car using the unboxed design, but its probably a pure Robotaxi so not for consumers. THEN, it appears some cheaper versions of the 3&Y could be entering production either late this year or early next, to be built on the existing 3&Y lines. PLUS, Semi is scheduled to enter volume production in late 2025 out of Giga Nevada.

However, In the meantime it looks like production growth is being paused or even pulled back a bit. Austin and Berlin Y production seems to have stopped increasing and Shanghai 3&Y production is lowering a bit. S&X will likely stay flat but CT production is ramping.

So I think we're in a lull for a few years, but once growth starts back up it looks like its going to be major.

And this is just cars of course, Megapack is still ramping fast and who knows when Optimus will enter production, but I'd bet its only a few years away now.

 

[SO16]

yet another not willing to honor their original vote. Good clip though.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795794521604718814

 

[ShareLofty]

Now, if we put those two hypothetical imaginings together -- can you imagine that maybe, just maybe, Tesla could buy-back enough of those depressed shares to effectively increase Elon's ownership percentage, and nudge his voting control up to where he will feel more comfortable?

You seem to like the idea of Elon "lowering Tesla's valuation initially", so that is one hypothetical...but I think we've all seen over the years many different reasons (or lack thereof) for irrational drops and sustained depression of Tesla's valuation. Combine any of those with lots of cash-on-hand, and the company can effectively buy back shares to increase everybody (including Elon's) percent ownership. If, in this future, Elon is already close-ish to his desired threshold, it seems reasonable to imagine Tesla could decide to do this to get over that hurdle.

Elon will not buy back shares anytime soon because he would have to admit that Uncle Leo was correct.

 

[sunwarriors]

They buy them from the market as far as I know. So I get the underlying message of what you're saying, but it would be very hard for Tesla to buyback ~50% of their outstanding shares in order to make Elon's 12.9% effectively be 25.8%.

A buyback would increase his % stake (as it would also increase everyone else stake), but the problem is that he would have to buy back so many shares that I don't think it's possible for him to get to 25% just from buybacks alone to have much of an impact from looking at the math.

It's really the math of buybacks retiring the stock afterwards decreasing the outstanding number of shares.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505185-share-buybacks#why-companies-buy-back-their-shares

 

[GOVA]

Call from Tesla Board of Directors?

Mod note: I am not regularly on this thread anymore and searched it as well as looking over the last few pages of comments and did not see this discussed, remove if not appropriate.

My office phone rang today and a guy on the other end of the line said he had been tasked by the Tesla BOD to reach out and make sure that I'd voted my shares. I'm by no means a large shareholder, but did buy early enough that my position is substantial for my portfolio. He asked if I'd gotten my proxy info by mail and if I'd like to vote today by phone. I found this super weird and honestly a bit desperate. I declined and told him I planned to vote online (and i do.) Is this a common occurence? Is it a scammer?

Seems fishy AF. Must have been sharedlovety.

 

[MP3Mike]

Yeah, and that that fits with the 'easy' argument on the training side where easy doesn't mean fast or resource independent. It is easy to move a pile of small rocks one rock at a tine, but it will take a while. If you know the pile will be moved again, that there will be shovels available, and that less than 20k people will be inconvenienced for less than 6 months on average, why bother?
Easy != worth doing.

It is, also, possible, but not likely, that they are building a custom NN for the Cybertruck that uses the front bumper camera. Which would likely require capturing a lot of video samples. (But I don't think it is necessary, and they probably aren't going to do that.)

 

[mongo]

It is, also, possible, but not likely, that they are building a custom NN for the Cybertruck that uses the front bumper camera. Which would likely require capturing a lot of video samples. (But I don't think it is necessary, and they probably aren't going to do that.)

It would make parking easier though versus relying on extrapolated object permanence/ dead reckoning.

 

[Skryll]

Remember when Elon was crying about the stupidest experiment of mankind - well looks like he full on supposed climate change deniers now:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795795694160064919

 

[Christine69420]

Remember when Elon was crying about the stupidest experiment of mankind - well looks like he full on supposed climate change deniers now:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795795694160064919

A) He has said this before - could even be word for word.

B) This is not a full on climate change denier statement.




Edit: Not that it changes my answer - but this forum showed me only part of the tweet - as a text - not as a tweet. So it was no way for me to know that he said more than I could see. Now after reading replies to my post I suddenly see the whole tweet. Sigh.

Which is why I would love if people referencing tweets would also copy all the text into their posts. Since tweets often does not display at all. And if they do they may be truncated like it was for me when I read Skryll's post. This and the frequency of embedded tweets make this thread hard work. Not to mention additional issues.

 

[ggies07]

Remember when Elon was crying about the stupidest experiment of mankind - well looks like he full on supposed climate change deniers now:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795795694160064919

Excuse me to the highlighted part? I'm dumbfounded. This goes against the mission of Tesla...looks like maybe he doesn't need his CEO package.

Umm... also, the Earth has already changed due to the amount of CO2 in the air and oceans, not sure WTF he is talking about "deep underground".

 

[DarkandStormy]

Remember when Elon was crying about the stupidest experiment of mankind - well looks like he full on supposed climate change deniers now:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795795694160064919

Food production is responsible for one-quarter of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions

One-quarter of the world's greenhouse gas emissions result from food and agriculture. What are the main contributors to food's emissions?

ourworldindata.org

Roughly one-quarter of the world's greenhouse gas emissions come from food production, the majority of those from farming.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1050809258659344384

https://twitter.com/x/status/870369915894546432

https://twitter.com/x/status/1018321524728610817

 

[aubreymcfato]

Seems fishy AF. Must have been sharedlovety.

This is not the first time I hear someone say someone phoned him. Check on Reddit, there is the chance that is legit.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Excuse me to the highlighted part? I'm dumbfounded. This goes against the mission of Tesla...looks like maybe he doesn't need his CEO package.

Umm... also, the Earth has already changed due to the amount of CO2 in the air and oceans, not sure WTF he is talking about "deep underground".


View attachment 1051585

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794611887767687335

That's what he said was right in the short-term, wrong in the long-term.

This has been Elon's stance for the last 2 years or so.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Excuse me to the highlighted part? I'm dumbfounded. This goes against the mission of Tesla...looks like maybe he doesn't need his CEO package.

Umm... also, the Earth has already changed due to the amount of CO2 in the air and oceans, not sure WTF he is talking about "deep underground".


View attachment 1051585

Elon has stated this many times. You know how he cut things with an hatchet: he's saying that if we continue the current energetic transition the rest will take care of itself. He doesn't like panic, nor radical environmentalism because for him it's detrimental to humanity. He thinks current trends are enough without destroying or collapsing western society.

I don't agree with him 100% (I do think things are much more urgent, if you always think in the broadest of terms you are willing to sacrifice too many lives (see occurring disasters now because of CC)) but I don't see a change in tone - maybe from 2018 Elon.
Of course, it would be better if he spoke *against* oil now and then, but he's got too much self-indulgence for this "contrarian" role he made for himself.

 

[thx1139]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794611887767687335

That's what he said was right in the short-term, wrong in the long-term.

This has been Elon's stance for the last 2 years or so.

Coincidence where Elon has gone the last 2 years or so. Thing about long term and short term if you let the world cut back on short term it has an effect on long term. When does short term become long term? 2017-2018 when Elon was more concerned is going to be a decade soon. If the people he now supports win elections the gains we have made will start to be reversed or attempted to be reversed. They have had a damn good 12-24 months slowing the EV transition, do you think they will stop. It is a terrible sign that even with a new model in the US it looks like Tesla EV sales will be flat or lower in 2024.