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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This is not low probability. We were made aware Model Y refresh Juniper was not coming to N America in 2024 - which does not preclude the arrival of Juniper in China in 2024. In fact, there has been ample talk since 2023 that China would get Juniper mid-2024.

Example from Dec 2023: Tesla Prepares Revamped Model Y in China for 2024: Report - TeslaNorth.com
To me it is likely.

If they had said anything about it, many would have waited. Add recent 0.99% APR for MY only to clear as much inventory as possible.

All comes together neatly.
 
I gave you a disagree and here's why: there can be many reasons why somebody won't pay for FSD, even in the future when its Level 5. Maybe they are just ignorant of how good it is, or maybe they simply can't (or don't want to) afford the monthly subscription for something they can still do manually (driving). They don't have to be a "moron" to be ignorant of information or on a tight budget.
So how long do we have to wait until self driving a car on public roads isn't allowed anymore? 10 years? 20 years?
Not anything you are able to do will be legal forever, if it's dangerous for everyone.
 
So how long do we have to wait until self driving a car on public roads isn't allowed anymore? 10 years? 20 years?
Not anything you are able to do will be legal forever, if it's dangerous for everyone.
For that to happen, it will have to be on every car and free (included in the price of the car).

30-50 years? Considering politics, maybe never.
 
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So how long do we have to wait until self driving a car on public roads isn't allowed anymore? 10 years? 20 years?
Not anything you are able to do will be legal forever, if it's dangerous for everyone.

As soon as the insurance companies gets it. They cannot forbid us - they don't need to. They will make it expensive to drive yourself.
 
So how long do we have to wait until self driving a car on public roads isn't allowed anymore? 10 years? 20 years?
Not anything you are able to do will be legal forever, if it's dangerous for everyone.
Riding a horse on public roads is arguably a lot more dangerous than riding in a car. But it's still allowed on most roads except highways.
 
I guess agreed upon and fulfilled (by Elon) contracts mean nothing.


Got to admit I'm surprised to see Steve in the "no" camp. The vote isn't about performance over the past few years or for current, its about the deal made in 2018 which was fulfilled and met years ago.

Man, next week is going to be such a crap shoot. 😒
 
Oh I try to be positive, …
Are you? Really?

You come across as an anti-cheerleader. Usually your "positive" comments are couched with qualifiers, albeit subtle ones sometimes, such that your comments net out negative for anytime approaching the near or even mid-term.

Perhaps stop "trying" and just be positive.
 
Are you? Really?

You come across as an anti-cheerleader. Usually your "positive" comments are couched with qualifiers, albeit subtle ones sometimes, such that your comments net out negative for anytime approaching the near or even mid-term.

Perhaps stop "trying" and just be positive.

I am not positive about TSLA over the short term, say the next year or two, but I am positive in the very long term.

Why would you want me to pretend to have an opinion I actually don't? Just to be a cheerleader? How would that help anyone or be a worthwhile contribution to this thread? 🤔
 
It’s almost like they sent the German ones to South Korea ….
Germany is on a down trend, it's not just this month.
Another tweet form @piloly
1717705764535.png
 
I think Waymo is being completely transparent in what they are doing. They have iterated constantly...just as Tesla did with car production. They iterated on sensors, on vehicles, on maps, on business model. They are doing a classic engineering progression. The direction is so so very clear. Is it the right model? Who knows. What's clear is that in a few years Waymo will have the majority of the urban metro regions mapped and at the same time be ready to deploy the 50k vehicle fleet from Geely. Geely is hiring people in the USA for this purpose. I'd say they have 2 years of just physically standing up the RT business at scale. Concurrent operations will be remapping, expanding from Phoenix, Atlanta, Austin, LA, San Fran, etc to other locations. I guess they are using google data to pick metro regions. Anyway, it all seems very methodical to me and I don't see them really scaling paid service for 2 years at least. That's the window Tesla has to get something close to launch, I believe it's encumbant on Tesla to start doing something in CA with permitting. If they are not trying yet in CA they are not, IMO, serious and/or ready to launch. Permitting could take a couple of years and CA is the most accepting state for EV adoption and new things in general. Also, the rigor CA demands forces one to have a solid product.
This is an EXTREMELY optimistic take on waymo. Their entire technical model is 100% flawed, because it relies on maps. Maps are outdated milliseconds after being generated, so worthless, but actually WORSE because they potentially give false data. Plus the cost of the sensor suite per car is prohibitive, and the cost of mapping is prohibitive.
Does waymo make a profit? no? then why scale at all? If they are a maps-based system, then they gain nothing from scale. More coverage means more mapping vehicles. There is no viable business model here whatsoever. Its lunacy to think they will soon have 50,000 robotaxis. I'm sure their 'investor deck' is very impressive, and that they employ talented sales people, but that does not make it a viable business.

If Tesla solves FSD, which is looking more likely than ever, then it will work in London, Lisbon, Rome, Beijing, you name it. I don't expect to see waymo making HD maps of my local town in south west England any time soon, but I wouldn't be surprised for FSD to handle it within 12 months,
 
Germany is on a down trend, it's not just this month.
Another tweet form @piloly
View attachment 1054219

I’m not deep enough in the weeds on internal European Tesla logistics, but is there a wave effect within Europe?

eg: are Germany produced model Ys sent across the continent in the first 2 months of quarter, while German deliveries are saved for the last month of the quarter since they are close to the factory?

I am aware that Europe went into the quarter with a large amount of inventory, so not sure my above query would be that plausible, but just raising it as a possibility for low Germany sales.
 
To me it is likely.

If they had said anything about it, many would have waited. Add recent 0.99% APR for MY only to clear as much inventory as possible.

All comes together neatly.

Model Y refresh will be a bit more complicated than the model 3 was, due to the fact that Europe Model Y is supplied by both Shanghai & Germany factories, so both of them will need to transition at roughly the same time (ideally Shanghai a bit earlier given long shipping time to EU).
 
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Speaking of model refreshes, what’s everyone’s thoughts on the Rivian model refreshes announced today in relation to CyberTruck competition?

The dual motor R1S/T with 420 mile range (vs the dual motor CT being 340m), and the max performance model with faster acceleration (2.5s) than the CyberBeast are to be applauded in my book.
 
Speaking of model refreshes, what’s everyone’s thoughts on the Rivian model refreshes announced today in relation to CyberTruck competition?

The dual motor R1S/T with 420 mile range (vs the dual motor CT being 340m), and the max performance model with faster acceleration (2.5s) than the CyberBeast are to be applauded in my book.
In the short term, a great deal for truck buyers. In the long term, irrelevant, because rivian cannot make a profit on any of their existing vehicles, and there is no evidence this will be changing any time soon. Rivian literally cannot affor to make these in a large enough quantity to matter. I think due to the more conventional styling, rivian competes more with the lightning than the CT?
 
In the short term, a great deal for truck buyers. In the long term, irrelevant, because rivian cannot make a profit on any of their existing vehicles, and there is no evidence this will be changing any time soon. Rivian literally cannot affor to make these in a large enough quantity to matter. I think due to the more conventional styling, rivian competes more with the lightning than the CT?
They claim that they will make a profit with this refresh. We'll see if that is true.
 
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Not shooting you, but love his reasoning, that despite we having multiple confirmations that 4680 production is weeks ahead of production, one of the hypothesis is that that isn't true. How people pay for this guy content is beyond me

Do you have a source for the 4680 run rate? Just checked with TheLimitingFactor, he tweeted this today:


Relevant for our discussion are those two quotes from the tweet:
In the Q1 earnings call, Lars advised that they were actually at a run rate of about 7 GWh/yr at that point.
The 7 GWh figure was said to be for somewhere around 52,000 Cybertrucks/yr.

Dividing 52,000 gets us pretty much to 1000/week. So even though they have likely ramped up cell production since the call, it is still in the right ball park IMHO.

Also, I think it is good to be a bit ahead of CT production with the cells to keep things running smoothly - in case they change something with the cell lines, you don´t want to directly affect CT production.