Webeevdrivers
Active Member
I think that’s the case on magic docks. Not sure about ford and Rivian owners using the adapter. Really don’t know.I think non Tesla owners pay a higher rate to charge. not really given away for nothing.
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I think that’s the case on magic docks. Not sure about ford and Rivian owners using the adapter. Really don’t know.I think non Tesla owners pay a higher rate to charge. not really given away for nothing.
Sure… a “severe recession” didn’t occur but things definitely went from great to not “good”. Especially in Europe and China.He also has "more real-time global economic data in one head than anyone ever". That's how he perfectly predicted the "severe recession" that started in early 2023
/s
I think Nvidia has a bigger risk ... as the stock continues to rip higher they will begin to have the same issue Tesla had in the $400/share range .. loss of talent.. which musk was acutely aware of and hiring on a lot of dead weight ... we shall seeJust had a thought: It's not TSLA that should be worried about NVDA but NVDA that should be worried about TSLA. Does anyone here understand NVDA's competitive advantages well enough to explain why TSLA can't catch up on chip design and production? More and more it seems to me like both companies are converging on the same spot.
They can either pay a higher price or sign up for the membership.I think that’s the case on magic docks. Not sure about ford and Rivian owners using the adapter. Really don’t know.
No. That would be if they only made 200 Cybertrucks per week, when he gave you the per day production. (Multiple your numbers by 5-7, as I don't know how many days per week they are currently running the Cybertruck production line.)Wouldn't that be 268,800 cells per week, over 1,000,000 cells per month?
at some point in the near future you will have to be an absolute moron to buy/drive a vehicle without FSD ... driving the CT w/o FSD to me is unsafe .. it has the similar feeling to driving without a seatbelt once you realize just how dangerous that is ... i don't know when these other OEMs wake up to the fact that they will have to license FSD from Tesla but the longer they wait the closer to bankruptcy they will be ...Meh, I am surprised that YOU complain.
Elon has said don't own TSLA if you can't tolerate volatility.
He said 3.5 years ago that he determined that all of economics would be terrible for ~4 years.
WS is corrupt. They can do anything they want especially with Tesla.
The mainstream corrupt media is beyond garbage. Does not help Tesla at all.... and so forth.
FSD is the sugar per latest every piece of reliable news. Nobody else seems to be close with FSD. Hardware wise too, every other FSD attempt car looks like Frankenstein with their LIDARs. Tesla has SpaceX, Boring Co, Neuralink, Optimus, Starlink and Twitter engineers under one umbrella for Elon's disposal. They can do anything now.
I hope for the best. YMMV.
I choose not to be cynical about Musk’s FSD projections. He has eyes on these next three versions. He knows the bugs, knows if they are fixable and clearly thinks ‘yes’.
At a year between interventions, some thoughts.
- it won’t stay there, 10 years, 100 years soon follow
- it’s prob “interventions due to FSD when visibility is decent”. Mud on cams, impenetrable fog, torrential rain, will cause more FSD downtime than FSD itself
- at a year between interventions it’s the nature of the fail that matters. A pull over to verge and call for help is a world away from career at speed in random direction
- I think it’s awesome that Elon’s mind has already transitioned to the validation problem. The better it is the harder to validate. We just learned that Giga Austin cluster includes 20k HW4 computers. Presumably this allows gazillions of simulated tests before the software gets near your car for the longer feedback loop. Tesla/Musk is already at robotaxi implementation planning phase. Second place with a works-anywhere, cheaper-than-driver system, air.
- Waymo/Cruise (can’t recall which or both) intervene remotely in car-stuck situations. When Tesla reach very-rare-intervention, and fail SAFE, the numbers stack up, it’s robotaxi go for launch time. A Tesla obviously has remote drive capability wherever there’s internet. This happens in China in 2024. Change my mind.
moron to buy/drive a vehicle without FSD ...
at some point in the near future you will have to be an absolute moron to buy/drive a vehicle without FSD ... driving the CT w/o FSD to me is unsafe .. it has the similar feeling to driving without a seatbelt once you realize just how dangerous that is ... i don't know when these other OEMs wake up to the fact that they will have to license FSD from Tesla but the longer they wait the closer to bankruptcy they will be ...
at some point in the near future you will have to be an absolute moron to buy/drive a vehicle without FSD ... driving the CT w/o FSD to me is unsafe .. it has the similar feeling to driving without a seatbelt once you realize just how dangerous that is ... i don't know when these other OEMs wake up to the fact that they will have to license FSD from Tesla but the longer they wait the closer to bankruptcy they will be ...
just like investing in TSLA was a gut feel from owning the product in 2017 .. my assessment of FSD after driving it for over 2 years is a gut feel ... backward looking statistics be dammedIn 2022 the injury rate per 100 million miles driven was 75. It is trending down. That is one injury per 1.33 million miles driven. At 13,500 miles/year that's 98.77 year of driving.
So you could say that people have a 50-50 chance of getting an injury. Fatality rates are 50 times lower
However, that includes:
(1) Non-occupants (increasing, while occupant injuries are decreasing)
(2) People who are drunk
(3) People who are risk-taking (speeding, etc)
(4) People not wearing a seatbelt
(5) People who text while driving
If you are not one of Those People in (2) - (5) your probability of injury would be expected to be much lower, since you're reducing your risk of collision. At least for fatalities a lot result from (2)-(4).
Also, there is more to driver-assistance than FSD. Simpler, less expensive systems can also help reduce injury risk beyond what just not being an idiot does.
Based on assorted headlines and "expert" analysts, YES!...So are we concerned nobody wanna buy the truck or are we concerned 4680 are not being ramped quickly enough?
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With manipulators taking such advantage of the stock, they aren't going to let go without a fight (see @Papafox daily). They're making too much money controlling the SP relative to options pricing. But, at some point, it will get away from them and that's why it will likely be violent. I don't like this game at all, but the manipulators are constantly rewarded and, thus, this is how it shall be. If someone thinks they can temporarily exit, make enough of a return elsewhere to more than compensate for the losses missed when the manipulators finally lose control, things go a little crazy, and you get back in afterwards....well good luck! I'm sure some will time it well, it just won't be me trying.I understand why people think this way, and I suspect a lot of investors have fled TSLA with the presumption they will spot the right time to rotate back in before it rises again...
But having held the stock for about 8 years now, I have learned that this is very very very difficult to get right. The stock seems to hardly move on stuff which is relevant (cybertruck first deliveries, FSD v12) but goes bananas on the relatively trivial (hertz deal). I think there is a really good 'story' behind the company right now, but so many investors are not listening to it because:
a) Most of them have not tried FSD
b) There is a tsunami of FUD about EV sales
c) There is a lot of culture-wars yelling about Elon
d) People still think Lucid & Rivian & Ford & GM resemble actual EV competition (lolz).
So the next catalyst for the stock might be something relatively minor, but if it gets analysts to actually do a bit of research into the company again, it can quickly reverse into a stock climb.
Buy and Hold may be boring, but in the long run it really does seem to work better than constantly trying to second guess which stock goes where this week, or even month.
quick downvote from a couple trolls on ignorefun times on the "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable" i wonder if these trolls actually drive with FSD
I think Waymo is being completely transparent in what they are doing. They have iterated constantly...just as Tesla did with car production. They iterated on sensors, on vehicles, on maps, on business model. They are doing a classic engineering progression. The direction is so so very clear. Is it the right model? Who knows. What's clear is that in a few years Waymo will have the majority of the urban metro regions mapped and at the same time be ready to deploy the 50k vehicle fleet from Geely. Geely is hiring people in the USA for this purpose. I'd say they have 2 years of just physically standing up the RT business at scale. Concurrent operations will be remapping, expanding from Phoenix, Atlanta, Austin, LA, San Fran, etc to other locations. I guess they are using google data to pick metro regions. Anyway, it all seems very methodical to me and I don't see them really scaling paid service for 2 years at least. That's the window Tesla has to get something close to launch, I believe it's encumbant on Tesla to start doing something in CA with permitting. If they are not trying yet in CA they are not, IMO, serious and/or ready to launch. Permitting could take a couple of years and CA is the most accepting state for EV adoption and new things in general. Also, the rigor CA demands forces one to have a solid product.He also has "more real-time global economic data in one head than anyone ever". That's how he perfectly predicted the "severe recession" that started in early 2023
/s
I've seen this number, too. But FWHA reports 3.196 trillion VMT in 2022. Statista shows 233m licensed drivers in 2021 (source behind paywall). 233m is 70% of the population, so reasonable. That's 13.7k miles per year per driver. But VMT includes semi trucks, buses, motorcycles, etc. "Light Duty Vehicles" (basically vehicles with 4 tires and <10,000 gross vehicle weight) drove 2.823T miles in 2022. That's 12.1k miles per driver.
Even light duty includes millions of commercial vehicles, e.g. plumbers vans, fleet pickups, police cars, etc. So average miles per driver in their personal vehicle is less.
If you forget about drivers and just look at vehicles, the 197 million "Light Duty Vehicles Short Wheelbase" averaged just under 11k miles each and "Light Duty Vehicles Long Wheelbase" just over 11k.
Waymo remote operators don't "intervene", i.e. turn the wheel or slam the brakes in real time to prevent an accident. You are comparing two completely different things.
That's a better theory than most. It's certainly not "maps" or lidar cost, lol. But it could be they just really, really suck at business. A couple years after they started service in 50 square miles of Phoenix suburbs they were providing ~50 rides a day. Essentially an entire fleet and support infrastructure to replace a couple of very active Uber drivers.
Some news show asked 25 random people on the street in Chandler about Waymo. Every person had seen the vehicles, not one knew they could download the app and hail a ride! This is where Elon will run ciricles around Waymo. If Tesla achieves driverless, that is. Big if.
You don't think its because it is priced as a growth stock but is not growing?Without elon's 'antics'mankind is stuck in worldAmericans are stuck in a country run by boeing and general motors.
Back to TSLA... I think TSLA is flat because some are selling it to buy NVDA. (and probably happy about it right now) Also, would-be large buyers of TSLA are probably holding off until after the votes to see what happens.
It’s not Level 4 if Waymo is sending people to physically get into the cars and drive them, you may as well be in a regular taxi/uber. I imagine Waymo can still call it Level 4 when someone remotes in because a human in the driver’s seat doesn’t take over, but that’s questionable in terms of defining autonomy + I don’t know if this capability exists in Teslas manufactured to date + I doubt that’s what Elon is referring to.How so? Waymo still has interventions with their driverless Level 4 vehicles... Where they have to send someone into the field to take over and get it out of the situation it got into. (I would, also, call every usage of their "fleet response", where the vehicle phones-home for help, an intervention.)
So you think Elon will quit and let someone else finish RT? Not a chance.Because USD 75 is trailing EPS of 0.75 quarterly that gives a P/E of 25x. Those are the fundamentals of a company in an extremely competitive landscape like automotive. BYD who lately did extremely well has a P/E of 30x.
With an active and dedicated Elon, I can see Tesla emerging from other car companies and become the leader of innovation, software and relationships with the other influeantial personalities of the tech world. With Elon downgraded as a passive investor, I think WS will put tesla at the same level as BYD (25x forward P/E). So, in the short term, with quarterly EPS under 1$, stock price of 75 is possible. In the long run, with or without Elon, quarterly earnings of 4/5 USD and a growth rate back to 25/30% will justify 200$ per share. Otherwise NVDA at 40x PE in 2025 in a monopoly position is still preferrable.
Wall Street has the power of manipulating prices until those EPS are visible, stock price won't react much at the RT event, especially if it's a narrative about future earnings. Unveiling something that can monetize in 5 yrs is not rewarding. Analysts (and Institutionals) want to see monetization within 1yr, otherwise it's again dead money and they will keep on manipulating the stock price as they please.
I personally will keep my self fully invested in TSLA because I'm not a WS guy and i see the biggest potential in this company, and because I appreciate Elon.
...Waymo remote operators don't "intervene", i.e. turn the wheel or slam the brakes in real time to prevent an accident. You are comparing two completely different things.
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at some point in the near future you will have to be an absolute moron to buy/drive a vehicle without FSD ... driving the CT w/o FSD to me is unsafe .. it has the similar feeling to driving without a seatbelt once you realize just how dangerous that is ... i don't know when these other OEMs wake up to the fact that they will have to license FSD from Tesla but the longer they wait the closer to bankruptcy they will be ...