Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

Why can’t Tesla launch a car share app (like Turo) for now? I leave my car in the parking lot from 8-6. Someone can rent it. There could be hourly rental fee and if the car is not returned by 6... a much heavier hourly rate.

Beside the lack of strategic angle, they may be limited by the size of the software team.

Don't you think they are just a little busy?

Dan

 

[Pras]

Don't you think they are just a little busy?

Dan

Agree. But wasn’t mentioned by Elon. Hence asking. Since robotaxi AI training may take years, they can ask the software team to plan building sharing app (using same robotaxi app platform).

 

[Hock1]

EDIT: I'm going to leave the following "as-is" since many retail investors believe market makers aren't allowed to naked short sell stocks.
___

Learn yourself about the short-selling exemption for market makers (SEC Regulation SHO). I have posted about it here extensively since last fall.

Read the "Key Points About Regulation SHO". There's lots there, but don't miss the short selling exemption for market makers:

"Selling stock short without having located stock for delivery at settlement. This activity would violate Regulation SHO, except for short sales by market makers engaged in bona fide market making."​

Guess who gets to decide what is "bona fide market making"? That's right, the market makers. It's the dogs watching the kennel with Regulation SHO.

You also asked "I guess at some point they will have to covered it?" The answer to the time allowed to cover by market makers is layed out in Regulation SHO itself:

"Rule 203(b)(3) applies to fails to deliver in threshold securities if the participant’s fails to deliver persist for 13 consecutive settlement days. Although as a result of compliance with Rule 204, generally a participant’s fail to deliver positions will not remain for 13 consecutive settlement days, if, for whatever reason, a participant of a registered clearing agency has a fail to deliver position at a registered clearing agency in a threshold security for 13 consecutive settlement days, the requirement to close-out such position under Rule 203(b)(3) remains in effect."​

So again, market makers get special treatment. They have 13 trading days to cover their short sales even before there is a requirement to REPORT the short sale.

Seach this forum for 'failure to deliver' reports, which are released twice a month. That's what members are talking about when people mention the FTD report. It's evidence of naked shorting. But it's also very poor evidence, only reporting just the crumbs of evidence left over after the crime scene cleanup (covering) is already done. Disgraceful situation.

Perhaps you should also read this SEC comment on Regulation SHO where they justify the practice:

"The current NASD short sale rule contains an exemption for qualified market makers. The application of a short sale rule to market makers would dramatically reduce their ability to quickly adjust inventory positions, thereby lessening liquidity throughout the marketplace."
​

The SEC is broken. They are a textbook example of Regulatory Capture. Retail investors are being defrauded by the owners of FINRA, the market makers themselves.

Let's talk again tomorrow (or on the weekend) once you've read more about this an had a few sleeps. I expect your mind will be opened to the current market action.

Regards,
Lodger

Thanks Lodger for this. The ability to naked short sell, in itself, is an absolute travesty of our markets and is an essential tool of the shorts in their attempt to destroy TSLA. This is bad enough, but what really concerns me is this: why should we believe the FTD reports? Why couldn't they just let those naked shorts stay naked? That's what Bernie Madoff (the originator of this market maker exemption) did. I don't have the cite immediately at hand, but I've seen a quote of his, made from prison, that he regretted the fact that he would naked short and then just stay short. It doesn't take much imagination to understand what havoc the TSLA shorts could wreak.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Ooh, so close too! Wotan, mang!

Cheers!

Kali, for me. Can’t get the scene from "Cabin Boy" out of my head.

 

[Zaxxon]

Err... Elon is the founder, owner, CEO, CTO & lead designer of SpaceX... don't confuse it with COO (Gwynne)

FWIW, Gwynne is also President of SpaceX. This argument is kind of dumb--both Elon and Gwynne are vitally important to SpaceX, and SpaceX would be nowhere near where it is today without both of them.

 

[guidooo]

The stock simply MUST be traded. It can’t be a buy and hold option or else the opportunity cost and potential risk is too great.

Not trading. Buy and hold seems the strategy that's best for me since it gives me peace of mind.

 

[bdy0627]

Then he wasn’t “long” before.

Left was definitely a short long.

 

[SO16]

Why can’t Tesla launch a car share app (like Turo) for now? I leave my car in the parking lot from 8-6. Someone can rent it. There could be hourly rental fee and if the car is not returned by 6... a much heavier hourly rate.

Beside the lack of strategic angle, they may be limited by the size of the software team.

Why not just use Turo?

 

[Boomer19]

You should really ask SpaceX to update their website:

Elon Musk

"Elon Musk leads Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), where he oversees the development and manufacturing of advanced rockets and spacecraft for missions to and beyond Earth orbit."​

Looks like 52-week lows turned this into Bash-Elon-Week. By most accounts Elon is much more involved with SpaceX's engineering and strategic decisions than many other CEOs. The whole reusable rockets idea wouldn't have happened without him.

I.e. you are just repeating the TSLAQ argument that tries to marginalize Elon's involvement with SpaceX, in an attempt to isolate him and pin only the failures on him, never credit him for successes. That's intellectually dishonest.

agreed,
if you don’t like elon, dump your positions.

tired of hearing those particular arguments.
we all know by now the timeline of his mid-judgments. will they cease, probably not. if they affect your strategy, adapt to them, or dump and move on. i got scorched last summer, but there’s about 6 things i could’ve done differently to realize the amazing gains i had set up for myself.

but i didn’t. i had the right strategy, but executed poorly.

sound familiar? happens to all of us at some point or another

it’s not personal. either deal with it or don’t. but he’s not changing. venting about it can be healthy part of one’s process.
energizer-bunnying about it is debilitating. get back to drawing board and figure out a better mouse trap.

 

[Drax7]

Okay, that does it. Every time I read a post that says there’s a demand issue, I’m going to buy a TSLA share. That way I’ll be able to say, when I’m basking on my own island, ‘If I had a TSLA share for every time I heard someone say Tesla has a demand issue, I’d own my own island.’

And yes, I’m serious. I’ve already transferred money into my trading account.

You may now officially quote my new tagline (with appropriate credit): ‘When living in bizarro world, get richer.’

Unless we start getting sequential revenue increases at this stage the stock price is unlikely to reverse course,
Demand may be abstract term , however sequential revenue increases which are a function of
Demand and supply is the key variable.

 

[Tslynk67]

Why not just use Turo?

Because Tesla will get revenue from it...

 

[Tslynk67]

Left was definitely a short long.

Short Andrew Left long?

 

[Tslynk67]

So now $TSLA will drop because Exxon Mobil profits were a miss? Stock Market really is bizarre!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Kali, for me. Can’t get the scene from "Cabin Boy" out of my head.

Show me the monkey!

 

[davecolene0606]

Yes, this is well known. Tesla captures the ITC tax credits in the very first months/years of the VIE and from then on it bleeds. The lifetime of these things is measured in decades.

So ur sayin we shouldn't measure the result in decades? SC purchase success will be determined over a considerably longer period than it has been acquired for. You calling it a failure indicates your investing time horizons... clearly.

Fire Away!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Mod: policy regarding words... image deleted. Sorry. --ggr. My reply from now on to all FUD and passive aggressive posts regarding Tesla or TSLA....

Sorry but I'm in that kind of mood today.

Dan

 

[Sean Wagner]

Or this is for Shanghai?

[re Panasonic switching Japanese capacity over to 2170]

I'll leave you with the following;
China, Japan agree to accelerate negotiations on regional free trade deals | 2018/12/01

And we do know per Elon Musk that Models S & X are not scheduled for a battery cell dimension change. New sauces can go into the rolls without adding the expense in cash, time, and effort by a limited pool of people to change the basic shape, alter the pack, and integrate it with the chassis. This does pertain to the above, don't beat me mods. Pretty please.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

agreed, if you don’t like elon, dump your positions.

Did exactly that a month ago.

But the decision to dump my position had nothing to do with liking or disliking Elon. Actually, I admire, love him for all of his accomplishments – after all he was one of the main reasons why I had a sizable TSLA position and why I'm posting here.

I strongly believed he and Tesla could pull it off.

But the last few months showed me that they were simply not able to execute their own plans over and over and over again. I have zero trust left in Elon and Tesla, hence why I'm (temporarily) out.

I'm also not saying another CEO, COO, etc. would be guaranteed do a better job than Elon but at this point, yet I wouldn't mind if they'd just give it a shot.

tired of hearing those particular arguments.

Well, guess what: This is a discussion forum, not a superbull echo-chamber (right?). If you don't like my arguments, feel free to put me on your ignore list.

we all know by now the timeline of his mid-judgments. will they cease, probably not. if they affect your strategy, adapt to them, or dump and move on. i got scorched last summer, but there’s about 6 things i could’ve done differently to realize the amazing gains i had set up for myself.

but i didn’t. i had the right strategy, but executed poorly.

sound familiar? happens to all of us at some point or another

it’s not personal. either deal with it or don’t. but he’s not changing. venting about it can be healthy part of one’s process.
energizer-bunnying about it is debilitating. get back to drawing board and figure out a better mouse trap.

Okay, I guess?

 

[Boomer19]

Did exactly that a month ago.

But the decision to dump my position had nothing to do with liking or disliking Elon. Actually, I admire, love him for all of his accomplishments – after all he was one of the main reasons why I had a sizable TSLA position and why I'm posting here.

I strongly believed he and Tesla could pull it off.

But the last few months showed me that they were simply not able to execute their own plans over and over and over again. I have zero trust left in Elon and Tesla, hence why I'm (temporarily) out.

I'm also not saying another CEO, COO, etc. would be guaranteed do a better job than Elon but at this point, I wouldn't mind if they'd just give it a shot.



Well, guess what: This is a discussion forum, not a superbull echo-chamber, yet. If you don't like my arguments, feel free to put me on your ignore list.



Okay, I guess?

i’m not a super bull. i don’t ignore anyone. my point wasn’t meant to be taken as adversarial, nor directed at individuals, really. just generalization.

elon isn’t changing. what’s the point of wasting time pretending he would.

point was always be consuming data and adjusting strategy. always question.

if must, bitch to get off chest. don’t dwell. move forward.
that’s best (most productive and lucrative) course of action i found.

 

[Sean Wagner]

I think I am starting to see the point of many, who say that communications need work / polishing.

I've been thinking about the way Autonomy was presented, and specifically, the prognostications even Our Lady of ARK refers to as "Elon time". If a simple set of goals like 99.000%, 99.900%, 99.990%, 99.999% [you get the gist] of continuous autonomous driving sans disengagement had been set out, with the rider that "we'll announce every time we reliably achieve a new threshold and invite all present to have a ride again, could be soon, could be in three years - you will know", my bet is the stock would be higher. A tiny bit. But accumulated over time, greater confidence in communications has an impact.

Segue: might this be the right time for Tesla to advertise the new ranges of Models S&X? Cut through FUD.

Newly upgraded Model S and X drive units rolling down the production line at Gigafactory 1:
Tesla on Twitter