Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[VValleyEV]

TL;dr The SEC can't read AND doesn't listen.

Add to this:

• SEC motives are not to protect TSLA investors.
• Elon’s use of Twitter is a great marketing tool and valuable to shareholders.
• The settlement is a big win for Elon and Tesla.

 

[Late2theGame]

New demand for the Power Wall?

PG&E’s Radical Plan to Prevent Wildfires: Shut Down the Power Grid - WSJ

PG&E’s Radical Plan to Prevent Wildfires: Shut Down the Power Grid

This has been announced roughly a year ago. Neighborhood started to wake up to it later last year. Most comments were about generators for fridges etc. I used this news to convince my wife to get 2 powerwalls which have now been operational for about a month, working perfectly - fingers crossed.

I only have heard of one other neighbor getting powerwalls - also a Tesla driver. All others I talked with knew little about it and showed little interest. Not sure if any of the other Tesla drivers in the neighborhood is thinking about it.

My overall impression is that the Tesla Powerwall is still much less known than the Tesla cars in the general public and gets bought primarily by people knowing (and driving) Tesla products much better than average to start with.

Once PG&E blacks us out for a few days this might change, but the wait time for Powerwall will be a deterrent for people looking for quick fixes.

 

[mongo]

And investors shouldn't have a downside stop-loss limit? You can still believe in a company and re-enter whenever you feel comfortable.
If it's just "play money", it's all fine, but people in this thread were talking about "year's worth of salary" losses in option contracts. In my mind that's trading and not investing.

Believing in is not the same as investing in. Investing in requires a higher confidence/ commitment. Stop loss is trading, if you are invested in the company, you stick with it.

Options are not investing in a company, they are trading, regardless of the quantity.

Arguably (like this whole post), only stock purchases at IPO or capital raise events are truely investing. However, buying into a company by purchasing stock that someone else is selling can turn those shares from trading to investing.

I bought around this price, I also bought in the 3xx s. I don't plan on touching the majority of it beyond RMDs. Not that my piddly little accounts have any impact on Tesla as a whole. We invested because we believe in Tesla's mission. I might have skills that would aid Tesla, but I'm not willing to move to CA. So, even though we have x years of income Tesla stock, I'd say I'm a weak investor.

Elon put all his money onto SpaceX and Tesla. He's purchased more in the last year. He is not selling any, he works himself to exhaustion to make the mission happen. He has no down side protection. To me, that is true investing (both financially and personally)...

 

[Late2theGame]

Installation costs need to fall more then performance needing to improve. You are right that new systems will decline in cost and increase in performance, but an existing system requiring no service would still likely be cheaper then a new system due to one time installation costs. Reduce installation cost by 75%, which is possible, or cost effectively integrate with roofing and the story changes. I think uptake on 20-30 years should be over 50%. Not sure what is needed to break even, curious if you or neroden have thoughts on required percentages.

In some cases there are secondary factors like changes in building codes too. I wanted to add more solar panels to my 10 year old system and asked about putting the new panels in the sweet spot on the roof where my old system sits and put the old panels somewhere else on the roof. It turned out that with newer fire related codes I could not install new panels where the old ones are, only substantially fewer. I can basically no longer touch the old installation without violating code. I own my system so the renew lease or get new system question does not apply - In about one year when the saved electricity cost equals my install cost I start getting free electricity.

And my new panels ended up on less favorable parts of my roof, which btw in my case was also more cost-effective than moving things around. Installation cost for traditional panels are still prohibitive for that.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Retrofit will only be free to those Oct 2018 or later cars which have paid for FSD. Sounds like the historical take rate for FSD is approx 10%. Every one else pays cash to upgrade to FSD Computer (its not required just to run std AP).<==MOD: This statement needs to be fact-checked. This Mod Flag will remain until this is verified or debunked. Caveat lector.

The FSD Computer costs Tesla about 80% of what they paid for the Nvidia its replacing, so this isn't a big expense. But while upgrading HW2+ cars, Tesla will automatically be able to book (at least part of) the FSD revenue previously held in trust. Achievement unlocked.

So this is a grand slam home run. And FSD gets better every month with the customers becoming Teslavanglists.

Cheers!

The funds are not held in trust. The cash is used as part of general cash while the accounting treatment is treated the same as deposits (i.e. a current liability on the balance sheet)

 

[azaz]

OT: Audi e Troj is featured quite prominently in the new avengers movie. They even fake engine noise, it’s disgusting

 

[EVNow]

Oh of course it is. It's common knowledge HW2 started shipping in Oct 2016 with the end of the Mobileye arrangment. Pardon any confusion.

Cheers!

Yes - should be Oct 2016. That change from 2016 to 2018 will give a heart attack to a lot of folks

 

[Sunlight]

Twitter should introduce an optional feature that allows you to have your tweets forwarded to someone you trust before publishing. It would make Elon’s day less stressful. I bet a lot celebrities would use it, especially those who use ambien (Roseanne).

As someone who does NO social media at all, the whole concept puzzles me.....

But wouldn't it be better if Tweets were held 'In abeyance' for, say, 15 minutes and then the Tweeter was asked to clarify that they definitely wanted to post the tweet before it went live?

Or do I live in some alternative universe>>>?!

 

[lklundin]

Just wanted to inform everyone that my TMC profile now sports a referral code, due to this Model 3 order placed today:
LR AWD, in blue w. FSD.
I placed the order in the Munich Tesla store, where I was promised that Tesla will at a later stage offer to upgrade my car with a tow bar.
Delivery was promised to be in June.

Coincidentally, my local news paper writes today that on June 30 the local VW dealer will close due to poor sales and poor resale value of leased cars. In the neighboring town the Audi dealer closed last year.

 

[HG Wells]

Just wanted to inform everyone that my TMC profile now sports a referral code, due to this Model 3 order placed today:
LR AWD, in blue w. FSD.
I placed the order in the Munich Tesla store, where I was promised that Tesla will at a later stage offer to upgrade my car with a tow bar.
Delivery was promised to be in June.

Coincidentally, my local news paper writes today that on June 30 the local VW dealer will close due to poor sales and poor resale value of leased cars. In the neighboring town the Audi dealer closed last year.

So, you are saying there is no longer a VW dealer in Munich ?
Wow, just WOW. /S

 

[GeoX750]

Just replying to your accusation about a demand problem...and if you want I can also see how many C class Mercedes are available...I bet its a lot more than 45.

If you here as a "care bear" I really really really appreciate your concern /S

Yes we did hear about that and many of us also known most of it can't be fault to global demand.

Iooks like you're the one who didn't pay attention as many members have predicted the demands pulling forward in u.s. by the tax credit cut off. And it's already common knowledge among bulls here Tesla was not made to order for more than half year now. Hello! Keep up please.

At least we can admit there is no pent up US demand. Let's hope the problem short is lived, not growing. Tesla has responded well with price cuts, introducing cheaper models, moving to foreign markets, Model Y introduction, leasing 3s and, unfortunately, store closings and layoffs.

However, it confounds me that Tesla avoids acknowledging and fully addressing US demand and actively attempts to distract from it. Moves such as touting FSD, robo taxis and insurance takes all the air out of the room and do not increase Tesla's appeal to mainstream buyers.

Tesla needs to acknowledge and address demand issues by broadening their marketing and exposure of a great product. Bring on the pickup and Y already, and even the new roadster for halo effect.

My TSLA holding is for fun, not enough to impact my financial picture either way. I am more concerned about support for my $100K+ car and supercharging network. Last previous quarters looked like the hockey stick adoption curve for Tesla/EVs was possible, but adoption will be slower and riskier. There is certainly plenty of room for growth, but how is Tesla going to get to the mainstream customers outside CA (aside from non-existent FSD, robo taxis)?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

SIGH. There is no demand problem. the easiest thing to fix demand problems is advertising. I dont see tesla ads, so I know they dont have one. It really is that simple. FFS if there is a demand problem show me the rows and rows of unsold model 3s, S and X...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Retrofit will only be free to those Oct 2018 or later cars which have paid for FSD. Sounds like the historical take rate for FSD is approx 10%. Every one else pays cash to upgrade to FSD Computer (its not required just to run std AP).<==MOD: This statement needs to be fact-checked. This Mod Flag will remain until this is verified or debunked. Caveat lector.

The FSD Computer costs Tesla about 80% of what they paid for the Nvidia its replacing, so this isn't a big expense. But while upgrading HW2+ cars, Tesla will automatically be able to book (at least part of) the FSD revenue previously held in trust. Achievement unlocked.

So this is a grand slam home run. And FSD gets better every month with the customers becoming Teslavanglists.

Cheers!

October 2016. If 2018 is the cutoff, I’m suing, and I imagine a lot of other people would with me.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Hoping some others can help me out with an explanation here around M3 production volumes in relation to cell production.

Assumptions:

• GF3 is currently producing cells at 24GWh per year, as per Elon's recent tweet Elon Musk on Twitter
• 10% of production is used for storage, leaving 21.6GWh for autos
• Average M3 has a 60KWh pack (40% LR@75KWh, 60%SR@ 50KWh)
• Dividing production by average usage gets us to 400k M3s able to be produced p.a based on current cell production
• 400k M3 p.a is 7.7k per week, or 100K per quarter

Tesla produced 62k M3s in Q1. Where are all the remaining cells going? Should I be diverting more cells to storage or was LR a greater % of vehicles produced? Was the ramp in cell supply late in the quarter? Even if LR was 100% of production we should still expect enough cells to produce 80k M3s per quarter.

Another question. If less than 80k M3s are produced this quarter, how can we justify the cell production vs demand?

 

[SebastianR]

I placed the order in the Munich Tesla store, where I was promised that Tesla will at a later stage offer to upgrade my car with a tow bar.

First, congrats!
Second, can you PM me the details on the Anhaengerkupplung (I assume that's what you are referring to?) - thanks!

 

[CorneliusXX]

OT

I lived in Chicago suburbs for 5 years. The most depressing time of the year for me is April to May, as I waited so damn long for spring to come but it just won't. It tends to be overshadowing weather too, adding to my depression. When snow comes early May I always wanted to cry. Watching my coastal friends enjoying their spring won't help either.

Try living in London

 

[EVMeister]

Try living in London

No.

 

[Beaver]

There is certainly plenty of room for growth, but how is Tesla going to get to the mainstream customers outside CA (aside from non-existent FSD, robo taxis)?

I have been thinking about how Tesla is going to use the room in the large Audi dealership they bought in Schaumburg on Golf road. If they stock inventory there it will make them seem more legit and more established. People I talk to want to see the car before they buy. Plus that location has thousands of cars drive by every day so that should help with brand exposure.
I saw on Reddit that they opened a larger size store in Reno.

When a neighbor of mine saw our 3 he said “you bought a Porsche?” When I said a Tesla he replied “same price.” There are a lot of people out there that don’t know the brand. I did educate him on the price.

 

[jbcarioca]

So, you are saying there is no longer a VW dealer in Munich ?
Wow, just WOW. /S

He should reply, but I will clarify.
He referred to his town, which appears to be very near Munich because he bought his Tesla there. Munich may be a bit BMW-centric, but there are copious VW and Audi there and the larger dealers are surviving. All across Germany smaller dealers located very near larger ones are having a very hard time. For that matter even BMW and Mercedes Benz dealers who've depended on suburban higher-end models to make up for lower margin cheaper ones are also suffering. Some of the shift is a consequence of corporate purchases, that tend to concentrate disproportionately to larger dealers.

While I have some knowledge of this because of professional connections with German auto distribution I am by no means an expert. Thus, I welcome correction if necessary.

By their own admission both BMW and Daimler-Benz are very concerned about the encroaching Tesla threat. Only VAG has gone so far as to propose regulatory changes to hamper Tesla growth in Germany. Fairly clearly, there is some nervousness about PSA because their effectiveness in rehabilitating Opel seems to be emerging as a low priced competitor. Domestically in Germany there are some headwinds politically with VW due to success of Skoda and Seat at the expense of German-produced VW.

These are very interesting times for Germany. Further pressure comes because Italy, Switzerland and France are all playing with the Silk Road Initiative, while German auto industry and tech industry is suffering with China sales.

All these things are probably net positives for TSLA, but seriously professional FUD is surely coming with that success.

People who know more than I should weigh in, because germany is crucial for Tesla growth. Is locating GF-4 in Germany a good idea? Personally I think they'd be wise to produce in Germany with major components sourced from other EU countries (e.g. Chechia, Slovakia, Poland, Spain)

 

[mongo]

Hoping some others can help me out with an explanation here around M3 production volumes in relation to cell production.

Assumptions:

• GF3 is currently producing cells at 24GWh per year, as per Elon's recent tweet Elon Musk on Twitter
• 10% of production is used for storage, leaving 21.6GWh for autos
• Average M3 has a 60KWh pack (40% LR@75KWh, 60%SR@ 50KWh)
• Dividing production by average usage gets us to 400k M3s able to be produced p.a based on current cell production
• 400k M3 p.a is 7.7k per week, or 100K per quarter

Tesla produced 62k M3s in Q1. Where are all the remaining cells going? Should I be diverting more cells to storage or was LR a greater % of vehicles produced? Was the ramp in cell supply late in the quarter? Even if LR was 100% of production we should still expect enough cells to produce 80k M3s per quarter.

Another question. If less than 80k M3s are produced this quarter, how can we justify the cell production vs demand?

You used the total cell count, not the post energy number.
21.6GWh / 60kWh = 360k or 90k a quarter (7.5k a week @12 weeks).
However, I think the single TE line is one of higher capacity new ones, so it may be taking up more than 10% (13 lines total, 3 new design) .
24GwH*85%/75kWh/4=68k cars per quarter 6k per week.
7k per week * 12 weeks * 65 kWh * 4 quarters = 21.8 GWh