Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Maitri982]

I am surprised no one here is taking solar. Tesla has announced crazy low pricing for solar panels that undercuts the other players. It's likely they can sell all they can make. Question is: what are the margins on this business given these new low prices?

I note this is not solar shingles, but solar panels for your roof.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is it a good idea to make Chamath a Tesla board director? We (the small shareholders) probably can help make it happen. It seems to me this guy has a good heart and is good at business/investment.

I'd much rather see him build a 10% stake. He is actively moving into Buffet-mode, so it may very well happen.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I am surprised no one here is taking solar. Tesla has announced crazy low pricing for solar panels that undercuts the other players. It's likely they can sell all they can make. Question is: what are the margins on this business given these new low prices?

I note this is not solar shingles, but solar panels for your roof.

This move could not be more huge, but it's not so sexy and will take a while to mature. Hence not much interest.

Killing off the entire 1on1 sales process is the key to residential solar moving back into exponential growth. Tesla essentially just did that.

It'll be VERY interesting to see Sunrun's response to this move. I expect none, but we'll see.

 

[Curt Renz]

Wapner apparently did not like having his intimate source Chanos being dissed by another guest, and by implication Wapner himself being made to look bad on-air. It's hard to know where in the CNBC chain it was decided to edit out the Tesla comments, but I assume it started with Wapner. Wapner's slip of, "We are betting against...", may have been a significant consideration.

Besides Wapner, the other daily talent on CNBC who has been aggressively negative on Tesla is money manager Tim Seymour of the "Fast Money" panel. He has admitted to being short Tesla. However earlier this week he appeared together with ARK Invest's Cathie Wood in what was promoted to be a Tesla debate. It was pretty much one-sided as Wood dazzled Seymour, keeping him relatively subdued and almost humbled. I wonder if Seymour is still short Tesla?

Yeah he was pretty much outmatched and non confrontational. I think that happens when you don't have much to begin with and your against a sharp smart person.

Sharp smart Cathie Wood's Tesla-heavy ARK ETFs were dragged down this afternoon along with the indexes after the perhaps not quite so smart Fed chairman told a questioner that low inflation may be transitory. Cathie has pointed out numerous times that costs can be kept in check or driven down during periods of extreme technological innovation. She believes we are moving into one now (mobile phone/computers, gene editing, autonomous electric taxis), but we have to look back more than a century for a similar example (electricity, telephones, automobiles).

 

[TradingInvest]

Not sure how they concluded that FSD is four years ahead. The hardware implemented in actual cars is probably 4 years ahead. But FSD has always been a software problem...

You need both hardware and software for FSD. The HW should be fast and reliable at processing images, also can host the large NN.

 

[neroden]

Not sure how they concluded that FSD is four years ahead. The hardware implemented in actual cars is probably 4 years ahead. But FSD has always been a software problem...

Given that the software project has the hardware as a prerequisite for even testing and developing the software, I don't see how a company four years behind on hardware can be *less* than four years behind. They could be *more* than four years behind.

 

[neroden]

Sharp smart Cathie Wood's Tesla-heavy ARK ETFs were dragged down this afternoon along with the indexes after the perhaps not quite so smart Fed chairman told a questioner that low inflation may be transitory. Cathie has pointed out numerous times that costs can be kept in check or driven down during periods of extreme technological innovation. She believes we are moving into one now (mobile phone/computers, gene editing, autonomous electric taxis), but we have to look back more than a century for a similar example (electricity, telephones, automobiles).

Ha, I've been pointing out the macroeconomic similarities to the Industrial Revolution for years -- Cathie Wood seems to see the similarity. This leads to low inflation, high job growth economies until the transition starts to finish (after which, recession, poverty, and popular calls for communist revolution, typically).

 

[Remus]

Given that the software project has the hardware as a prerequisite for even testing and developing the software, I don't see how a company four years behind on hardware can be *less* than four years behind. They could be *more* than four years behind.

not necessarily.

The reason Tesla developed their own chip is Karpathy's team had an NN model that can't be handled by the Nvidia chip at that time. In this case the software leaped ahead of hardware. They have several engineering cars equipped with big computers in the trunk.

 

[SPadival]

FYI, got back in again yesterday.. the dumb not-an-AI machine bought some shares while I slept

 

[Compton]

not necessarily.

The reason Tesla developed their own chip is Karpathy's team had an NN model that can't be handled by the Nvidia chip at that time. In this case the software leaped ahead of hardware. They have several engineering cars equipped with big computers in the trunk.

FSD chip development started in February 2016. Karpathy joined Tesla June 2017.

 

[Tslynk67]

I am guessing most of this is going to happen from units produced in Shanghai's GF3?

Guy, I had doubts about you already, but your last two posts reveal your true colours.

 

[Krugerrand]

Guy, I had doubts about you already, but your last two posts reveal your true colours.

It took you two posts? I named that tune in under one.

 

[KSilver2000]

I'd much rather see him build a 10% stake. He is actively moving into Buffet-mode, so it may very well happen.

He’s definitely one of the good guys.
Interesting that, even with his optimism, he’d rather buy Tesla bonds rather than equity.
But the likelihood for him to take a 10% stake in Tesla is probably next to nill. First, his personal net wealth and Social Capital’s entire asset combined isn’t valued near 10% of TSLAs cap even at today’s low SP.
But then again if TSLA SP keeps trending the way it has been.....

He also has a history of being a bitcoin bull, though.

 

[Beaver]

Killing off the entire 1on1 sales process is the key to residential solar moving back into exponential growth. Tesla essentially just did that.

I live in the Chicago suburbs and in the last year we have had 6 solar roofs installed on our block and I’d bet they are all Sunrun. They went door to door and today at Costco they had a salesperson at the exit promoting their solar. The line was long and I saw a few people talk to them.

None of these people know Tesla solar and why would they? It seems to me this company has their marketing strategy based upon Twitter and that is messed up. Tesla needs direct sales and advertising. How else are people supposed to learn about the brand when competitors are direct advertising?

 

[Tslynk67]

I wonder whether Tesla allows salesmen to give some discount - but it comes out of their commission. Also note, the person posting the discount story is rather new.

And look at the posting history then make up you own mind.

 

[RobStark]

Quid pro quo. Panasonic will feel that Tesla have stolen their IP, if a Grohmann cell machine looks anything like a Panasonic cell machine. Car seats are one thing. Cylindrical cell making could be a much longer learning curve. I don’t see there is time for that. Unless Panasonic actually make their machine from commodity components.

Supposedly Tesla employees are not allowed in Panasonic areas and have never set eyes on Panasonic machinery.

Only way to find out specs is good old fashion industrial espionage or hiring Panasonic employees to spill the beans.

 

[KSilver2000]

I am surprised no one here is taking solar. Tesla has announced crazy low pricing for solar panels that undercuts the other players. It's likely they can sell all they can make. Question is: what are the margins on this business given these new low prices?

I note this is not solar shingles, but solar panels for your roof.

I was responded to in the Energy section of this forum by someone telling me PV system prices per watt are much cheaper in Europe even compared with the recent Tesla price reduction. So, I assume the margins are very, very healthy.
Although Tesla says they’re undercutting competitors, it’s really only undercutting the other national players such as Sunrun, Vivint, SunPower.

Compared to pricing from local/regional installers using widely available panels like LG, Panasonic, Canadian, etc., Tesla’s reduced pricing just now becomes on par. I got higher wattage LG panels (than Tesla’s newest 330 panels) last year for the same price that Tesla is now charging. If I had opted for the same 330, or even lower wattage panels, my overall $/w from local reputable dealer would have been same or less than Tesla’s reduced prices.

 

[Fact Checking]

Supposedly Tesla employees are not allowed in Panasonic areas and have never set eyes on Panasonic machinery.

That's generally not a security measure according to Carsonight: boyh Tesla and Panasonic employees routinely go into the other area and don't need special permission to do so, with the important exception of the large clean-room classified areas of Panasonic, which are obviously inaccessible even to Panasonic employees who don't work there: it's a complex process to pass in and out of the airlock and get dressed in "bunny suits" and requires special training just to be there.

 

[sundaymorning]

CNBC seems to be incentivizing EM to come on and do an interview IMO. Cramer has been flirting with EM on Twitter or so he says and he has said that he thinks the world of Elon. At the same time they tend to knock the stock regularly with direct focus on EM as the source of the "issues". They seem to want him to come on to dispel their misunderstandings. Musk tends to do shows like "60 minutes" rather than stock trading shows, I approve BTW.

CNBC seems desperate to get him booked but it never happens for them and it seems to be making them crazy. It is a strange world out there and EM can do as he pleases as far as I am concerned.

I wouldn’t do interviews anymore, he’ll be walking into a trap. Better to focus on the product with genuine people who cares.

Although I hate this move, Tesla should start advertising on CNBC, we don’t have to advertise everywhere, just CNBC should be enough to silence those snipers.

 

[Remus]

FSD chip development started in February 2016. Karpathy joined Tesla June 2017.

I think that was mentioned in Q3 2018 earning call, I might need to go back and revisit