Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Elon can't help himself on Twitter. He stated 6 more launches of 60

for initial activation, 12 for significant coverage.

Suggests at least that when it launches tomorrow, he thinks all 60 will deploy without failure. Will be quite something. It may not be enormously challenging for SpaceX but 60 satellites is just wow. The machine gun of satellite deployments.

He also said:

Much will likely go wrong on 1st mission. Also, 6 more launches of 60 sats needed for minor coverage, 12 for moderate.

In the same Twitter thread
Twitter
So I think you may be mischaracterizing the optimism level. Especially if you followed the info session yesterday.
From Everyday Astronaut's coverage of the call:

60 sats are production design, with no KA antenna. Some of them might not work, small possibility none will work. Crazy technology and they're very hard.

Biggest concerns, solar arrays, phase array antennas, ion engines. Lots of new technology on the satellites.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Slightly OT, but lots of details provided on Starlink yesterday.

Elon's brand, success and wealth often impact the Tesla stock price, and I think progress with Starlink can help to turn the anti-elon narrative.
Successful deployment and testing of Starlink's first 60 satellites over the next few days should significantly increase Starlink's probability of building a viable business.

Key updates:

• Recent Spacex funding rounds have been oversubscribed (disproving TSLAQ's SpaceXQ FUD). Elon thinks Spacex now has enough capital to get Starlink operational.
• Targeting 3-5% of the $1trn worldwide telecommunications revenue. So $30-50bn revenue.
• 60 satellites in first launch. 12 launches will cover the US. 24 will provide decent global coverage. Can begin selling services with c.400 satellites. Need c.1000 to be economically viable. Will continue to add satellites to meet demand.
• Falcons can potentially launch 1-2k per year.
• Targeting sub-20ms latency
• Each launch has "about a terabit of useful connectivity".
• Each Starlink costs more to launch than it does to make, even with the reused Falcon 9.

Assuming a launch cost of $20m for a reused Falcon, these updates suggest a c.$333k launch cost per satellite and below $333k production cost. I don't see how Oneweb competes with this when it looks like they are paying $50m per launch of c.30 satellites (so $1.7m per satellite, which are also much smaller), with an initial production cost of $1m (targeting $0.5m) and what looks like only 60% of Starlink's bandwidth per satellite (implied by numbers here Musk says Starlink “economically viable” with around 1,000 satellites - SpaceNews.com). So it looks like SpaceX capex cost per Gigabit/second is at least 6x lower, perhaps 10x.
If this satellite deployment goes well, I expect Elon will be thinking the global satellite broadband race is also "Game, set and match".

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Seems to be trading in pre-market...?

View attachment 408293

Waiting for “communication” from Tesla

 

[Tslynk67]

Waiting for “communication” from Tesla

Don't hold your breath...

 

[Boomer19]

most tender offers have another two days after expiration for those that bought on expiration to still tender and ‘cover’ once the shares settle.
even then, once the tender is complete, the mandatory merger is some time after. the effective date of the merger is yet to be concrete, it will trade until then

 

[elasalle]

Few days back NOVA was showing just a few M3s in inventory. Now back to showing 89 VINs, with Long range AWD as lowest price, with VINs in 3843XX range. Looks like intermittent NA batch available for deliveries ...

 

[Pras]

Few days back NOVA was showing just a few M3s in inventory. Now back to showing 89 VINs, with Long range AWD as lowest price, with VINs in 3843XX range. Looks like intermittent NA batch available for deliveries ...

In the grand scheme of things when they are producing 5k plus a week, these fluctuations seems within the range of stocking restocking the inventory. I see on EV-CPO almost 450 new model 3 available. This is less than a days worth of car.

 

[Tslynk67]

most tender offers have another two days after expiration for those that bought on expiration to still tender and ‘cover’ once the shares settle.
even then, once the tender is complete, the mandatory merger is some time after. the effective date of the merger is yet to be concrete, it will trade until then

So what happens to all the shorts that piled into $MXWL since the merger announcement - do they become short on $TSLA?

MXWL Share Statistics
Avg Vol (3 month) 2.12M
Avg Vol (10 day) 1.56M
Shares Outstanding 46.58M
Float 32.99M
% Held by Insiders 7.74%
% Held by Institutions 68.85%
Shares Short (Apr 30, 2019) 13.47M
Short Ratio (Apr 30, 2019) 7.11
Short % of Float (Apr 30, 2019) 33.18%
Short % of Shares Outstanding (Apr 30, 2019) 28.91%
Shares Short (prior month Mar 29, 2019) 12.82M

 

[mongo]

So what happens to all the shorts that piled into $MXWL since the merger announcement - do they become short on $TSLA?

MXWL Share Statistics
Avg Vol (3 month) 2.12M
Avg Vol (10 day) 1.56M
Shares Outstanding 46.58M
Float 32.99M
% Held by Insiders 7.74%
% Held by Institutions 68.85%
Shares Short (Apr 30, 2019) 13.47M
Short Ratio (Apr 30, 2019) 7.11
Short % of Float (Apr 30, 2019) 33.18%
Short % of Shares Outstanding (Apr 30, 2019) 28.91%
Shares Short (prior month Mar 29, 2019) 12.82M

That is what happened with Solar City. In this case instead of a 9:1 ratio it will be a ~52:1 (0.0193 TSLA per MXWL), so ~264k additional shares of TSLA shorted.

 

[Joe F]

So what happens to all the shorts that piled into $MXWL since the merger announcement - do they become short on $TSLA?

They become involuntary contributors to several 2020 Roadster purchase funds?

 

[Unpilot]

That is what happened with Solar City. In this case instead of a 9:1 ratio it will be a ~52:1 (0.0193 TSLA per MXWL), so ~264k additional shares of TSLA shorted.

Sigh....great/S

 

[Joe F]

PALO ALTO, Calif., May 16, 2019(GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla, Inc.(TSLA)today announced the successful completion of its previously announced offer to exchange all outstanding shares of common stock of Maxwell Technologies, Inc. ("Maxwell") for 0.0193 of a share of Tesla common stock, together with cash in lieu of any fractional shares of Tesla common stock, without interest and less any applicable withholding taxes.

The exchange offer expired at 11:59 p.m., Eastern Time, on Wednesday, May 15, 2019. As of the expiration of the exchange offer, a total of approximately 36,764,342 shares of common stock of Maxwell were validly tendered in the exchange offer and not validly withdrawn, representing approximately 79% of the aggregate voting power of the shares of Maxwell common stock outstanding immediately after the consummation of the exchange offer. All shares of Maxwell common stock that were validly tendered and not validly withdrawn prior to the expiration of the offer have been accepted by Tesla for payment in accordance with the terms of the exchange offer.

Following to the completion of the exchange offer, Tesla completed the acquisition of Maxwell by consummating the second step merger contemplated by the previously announced merger agreement between Tesla and Maxwell. As a result of this merger, all shares of Maxwell stock that were not tendered in Tesla's exchange offer were cancelled in exchange for the right to receive the same consideration paid for Maxwell stock in the exchange offer.

 

[Tslynk67]

Probably duplicate info: Tesla Completes Acquisition of Maxwell Technologies | Tesla, Inc.

 

[pnungesser]

Another ship just arrived at Pier 80, the COSCO TENGFEI. Looks like a fast turn around of ships.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Don't hold your breath...

Seems the new communication team did a good job.
I was just about to lose my breath.

 

[GeckOo]

Seems the new communication team did a good job.
I was just about to lose my breath.

Finally they fix the communication blockage.

 

[elasalle]

.

Tesla’s communications chief is leaving the automaker – TechCrunch

Seems like the intern running the @tesla twitter handle cost the communications chief his job. You heard it here first

 

[Todd Burch]

Good to hear the Maxwell acquisition has closed. This will broaden Tesla's technical lead in the industry.

 

[anthonyj]

TSLA getting hammered pre-market

 

[mongo]

TSLA getting hammered pre-market

I'm seeing sub 1% drop...

That less than 1 deci-hammer.