Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drax7]

I want to see a proper technical bottom. Not a bargain buying permalongs bottom.
speculatively I might ebe interested around $150. But with so many broken promises and pipe dreams even the engineers don't believe in, there is barely a bottom for a loss-booking car maker that in theory would also be an energy company and software company, if they were selling such in meaningful numbers.
Had these cars come with an ICE, $50 would have been considered a fair valuation. Now that the rest of the market is starting a catch up campaign, it doesn't really matter anymore. Show leadership, growth and respect for your customers. It's not that hard, unless you never had a stable car brand before. So it might actually be an unsurmountable task for those small group of men and women. They make awesome products but run a very meh company.

I want to see management taking customers seriously for once. Cars designed to suit a larger demographic of customers better for actual use. Not just a Model 3 designed to compete with the sedan version of the BMW 3-series, etc. Truth is, those are show-off cars. People who NEED cars to facilitate life itself, drive hatchbacks, estates, etc. A fixed parcel shelf, letterbox boot, small frunk, it just doesn't add up to a car the market will demand in limitless numbers.
Small capitulation on Tesla's part: tow hooks are being allowed, shruggedly, going forward. Perhaps there is hope.
I feel sorry for those who did get in hard when Elon tweeted about 420. And his fines were but a slap of the wrist. What did investors lose since because of mismanagement and horrible expectation management? Not only market cap but also a smaller share of the company per share.

How hard can it be?
Get some of those billions of fresh cash to actual cell production. Inexcusable to be cell limited in 2019 with such a low car production. Under half guidance for Model 3.
- Model 3 Estate. Seriously. This is what the market will buy.
- Optional instrument cluster for $1,000-2,000. Heck, offer to take it back for double when signing up for RoboTaxi when and if that ever happens.
- Smaller battery versions, because saving the planet, because cell limited. Make a 40 kWh hatchback Model 3. Bare bones, $30k. See it fly out the door.[/QUOTE

Tesla says self driving matters. But it only does if they succeed.
I don't say BMW will get there first, but ALL brands might still get there before Tesla. Because, proper management, smoother funding, clearer customer focus.
I also say that even if Tesla get there fist, it will be a temporary monopoly after which they will be priced out of the market. VW's first attempt at a ground up BEV will render Model 3 a posh car. The "affordable" Tesla is posh compared to the VW. Think about it. How will someone pick a Model 3 Robotaxi, pay extra and get a wooden behind for the privilege?
Tesla can't make enough cars to make a profit, they sure can't make enough cars to make a big impact on the taxi business.

so much crap, what is your purpose here.

 

[schonelucht]

Am curious what the investor community makes of this. Elon Musk plans to port Unity and Unreal gaming engines to Teslas

This is Tesla stupidity at its finest. The CEO is personally reviewing every one in 10 invoices with the CFO taking a look at all of them, you brand gets a beating because it can't communicate, logistics are a shamble and all of your products are not rolling out due to production issues, yet this is A-OK? Spending salary to port game engines to a platform just because you can? No. I can't see it being anything else as Elon's personal little toy idea, everything else be damned.

 

[Pras]

Just a quick note, as of this typing, AAPL is down more on the day than TSLA.

This reminds me of the Marie Antoinette’s comment, “let them eat cake”. It is like totally missing the destitution we are in.

 

[anthonyj]

So what do you think and what do you do if you're Elon Musk and you wake up this morning and your stock is at 195?

Start typing up new FUDdy emails to employees because the Saudi’s want more sub-$200 without slippage

 

[Cloxxki]

so much crap, what is your purpose here.

Open the window out of the matrix for you.

 

[EVMeister]

There's an awful lot of ignored content here today.

(not you, @anthonyj , don't worry).

 

[Tslynk67]

Well gang, for better or for worse, I am officially back in the game! Bought in today with more to follow at the end of the week. Going 3/4 Tesla and 1/4 ARK Invest. Don't need the money right away. Not even going to think about trading for at least 5-7 years. Planning on this paying for my Model Y on down the road!

Yes, the guy is obnoxious to watch, but this video sums up why I jumped back in at this point. Love the comparison of what a share bought you in 2014 and what a share (at roughly the same price) gets you now.

Dan

Thanks for sharing (and the other one up-thread, I guess that was you, Dan?). I rather like the way he presents and he talks a lot of common sense.

Update: the guy is comparing $TSLA stock value from 2014 versus today, prices a re commensurate. He's arguing it's a much better buy than it was and has the key points on the whiteboard

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla says self driving matters. But it only does if they succeed.
I don't say BMW will get there first, but ALL brands might still get there before Tesla. Because, proper management, smoother funding, clearer customer focus.
I also say that even if Tesla get there fist, it will be a temporary monopoly after which they will be priced out of the market. VW's first attempt at a ground up BEV will render Model 3 a posh car. The "affordable" Tesla is posh compared to the VW. Think about it. How will someone pick a Model 3 Robotaxi, pay extra and get a wooden behind for the privilege?
Tesla can't make enough cars to make a profit, they sure can't make enough cars to make a big impact on the taxi business.

Well, it's extremely unlikely Tesla would be last.
If Tesla does get there first, it will be a temporary monopoly for sure. If the tech works then others can catch up. We agree there. But if Tesla get's there first that's a lot of profit in that timeframe and likely a decent (and ongoing) market share.

Robo taxis using cars designed for the consumer will be a short term thing (5-10 years?). This model works for the person buying a car and using it as a taxi on the side and/or allowing a company to leverage the same lines to build consumer and taxi vehicles. Eventually they will be boring ugly boxes designed for maximum space inside etc.

Anyone not in the FSD game at all is very far behind, and it's possible that even Tesla's competitors are far behind. It really hinges on whether or not they can make the camera based approach work.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

VW's first attempt at a ground up BEV will render Model 3 a posh car. The "affordable" Tesla is posh compared to the VW

Will it? The VW will have to compete against Model 3's taken back at the end of lease, all subsidized to the tune of $18k+ by lessee payments. All those leased in the US before 7/1 are also subsidized another $3750 by the feds. So VW has to make a <$18,000 car capable of full self driving. Sure, they can do the same lease trick, but that has a 3 year lead time. Tick tock.

Oh, and some inside information from a known-good source: VW lost the majority of their research team that typically focuses on such things late last year.

 

[Remus]

So what do you think and what do you do if you're Elon Musk and you wake up this morning and your stock is at 195?

I hated that I missed the low point and finally loaded some at 203. put in buy order at 193 and 183 and 173.

 

[dc_h]

this is just alarmist bullshit. the market has gone collectively insane. Big oil and their shameless shills trying to kill off the only car company that gives a damn about the environment. its shameful.

Newton's first law: Momentum has a mind of its own.
Until misunderstanding has reached an irrational conclusion, it will continue unabated.

If you understand when the market is irrational, you can make a great profit, but if you are margined, the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
​

PS: I'm really looking forward to changing my profile picture.

 

[TradingInvest]

So what do you think and what do you do if you're Elon Musk and you wake up this morning and your stock is at 195?

Following sound investment rules is very important. Investors who get into trouble should first check their own behavior. Your investment success should not rely on a particular company or it's CEO. Always think what could go wrong and what's my plan in that case. Too much optimism is not good, you have to be rational. This applies to myself too.

I don't think Elon truly understand stock market. He is a great engineer, but stock is a different field. I can only guess he probably thinks the business is still the business, the stock fluctuation doesn't mean much in the long run. This is true for some investors, but judging the comments on this forum, I guess many strongest Tesla supporters have been hurt badly and permanently. It's very sad.

Recently Jeff Bezos said sooner or later Amazon will bankrupt and they are just trying to delay that inevitable event. That's the right thing to say. If the investors get too excited, trouble could happen. I know Tesla is in different situation, they can not say something like Bezos said, however, in the past 5 years, Elon gave many predictions and comments that are way too bullish, that's why so many investors got into 150% long, or added position near all time high. I think all along the right thing to do was to give moderate predictions with fair amount of warnings, so the investors don't get too excited.

 

[elasalle]

What I hope he is thinking and will do is this:

Dear Elon: Please reconsider and take Tesla private

What good does it do you if taking private price is less than your purchase price or you in IRA.
Better would be to get AAPL on board

 

[avoigt]

It's been quite a while since TSLA price movement looked so illogical to me.

The Ford & Jaguar news is another interesting piece of the equation. I do monthly US sales reports of almost all automakers now (for past several months) and most of them are down, some down big, year over year. Tesla is the only one up big year over year. The rest of the market is suffering, yet Tesla is the one with the demand problem? Tesla Model 3 is still a top seller in US (top 10 or top 15 of all cars) despite no other cars at that price selling so high. Yet Tesla has the demand problem? Tesla hasn't started delivering cars to many markets and just started delivering its low-cost Model 3. Yet Tesla has the demand problem? Fiat (and possibly others) have to pay Tesla a good chunk of money because they can't produce compelling electric cars.

It's wild.

Though, I do see it as a great opportunity. In 2-3 years, I don't think there will be room for wild skepticism about Tesla or the ability to bury one's head in the Wall Street gutter mud. So, for those with the vision and (hopefully correct) faith in Tesla and its long-term potential, this is an amazing buying opportunity.

Yes, disclosure: I am one of those people who never thought we'd get so close to such a low price again. Sucks when you think about some prices you've bought at, but great when you think of the opportunity to buy more before the market wakes up.

I wonder what critical positive inflection points will be. Possibilities in my mind are: Tesla outperforming (by a good margin) delivery expectations, FSD getting turned on and legalized in a few early markets (Florida, UAE, China?), a big automaker or two going bankrupt.

We'll see. No one knows. And that's why some will win and some will lose (big).

Its a few months since I call the stock price movement versus the information we have about the health of the company in terms of financials, fundamentals and markets as well as the outlook completely out of touch. In fact in decades working at the stock markets I never have seen any stock in my live where the gap between information available and stock price was as large as today with Tesla.

This is not normal and although I am not a big fan of conspiracy theories this is more than odd and for me only explained with pure manipulation using way more $ than you usually would have with other stocks. Many forces may come together here independently with the same goal for different reasons but this is really fishy.

For me a great indicator if fear is in the market and blood flows down the street ....

That may explain why I added today to my position.... never sold a single stock and do not intend to for the longer future...

 

[avoigt]

Incredible, look at this down movements and all the shorts still did not manage to make a profit.....


Ihor Dusaniwsky‏ @ihors3
Ihor Dusaniwsky Retweeted pjhornak

$TSLA shorts are still down $1.26 billion in mark-to-market losses since 2016. $853 million of that loss are stock borrow carry costs.

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

 

[FreqFlyer]

All this talk of taking Tesla is foolish. How does one envision Tesla operating going forward under such a massive debt load, that is high now? As EM has hinted, that ship has sailed.

 

[EinSV]

What good does it do you if taking private price is less than your purchase price or you in IRA.
Better would be to get AAPL on board

Lots of options to invest through an IRA. Forge Global (formerly Equidate) is one of the biggest platforms for trading private stock and they recently bought an IRA services company. Forge acquires IRA Services to expand offering for private company shares – TechCrunch
There are also banks that offer IRAs for private company investments.

As far as the share price, when I originally posted the thread about going private the SP was about 260. Two months later it was in the high 370s so in theory a go-private deal could have been done at or above 420 if financial backing was available. Now, Elon could get his ducks in a row and do a go private after the SP recovers.

 

[Fred42]

Elon already failed. This image wiĺl not change.

Elon will be remembered as one of the key people of the early 21st century because his initiative sparked the transitions to electric cars and trucks and aided the transition away from fossil based electricity with cell-based storage. If Tesla is an enduring success, so much the better.

 

[mongo]

So what do you think and what do you do if you're Elon Musk and you wake up this morning and your stock is at 195?

Same thing we do every day, Pinky. Try to electrify ICE world.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Lets be real, at today's SP, Tesla would around $33-35 Billion to take private. A company that "may" make $25-30 Billion in revenues. Anyone believe that sustainable?