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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Frequent, regardless of how small or large, price changes is definitely not the way to drum up news and interest in a positive way. As you say, marketing is necessary. That’s how you generate interest, not price changes. That is what companies with demand problems do. It’s really no different than all other mainstream ICE makers having sales and rebates. Do you ever see Porsche or Land Rover having frequent sales/rebates/incentives?
They are hidden by the dealer so the consumer doesn't see them--just like every other car company except Tesla.
 
not scientific but think Model 3 demand is going quite well right now....inventory count on the site shows usually 10+ orders a day for my zip

Same here. Towards the weekend there was new inventory up to 95, now it's back to 52.
if we assume most sales are on weekend, Fri-Mon would be a good time to check inventory.

Stepped out for 10 mins yesterday for a short walk to grocery, saw 5 M3s (office time).

Would be interesting to hear from folks in mid-west, smaller markets if they see the same .. (because M3 sightings in Cali no longer count) ;)
 
The older generation 60+ around me, such as my parents and their friends, do not factor FSD into their purchasing decision. In fact, they seem to be the most wary of letting the car drive itself (even though it might be better for their age group, along with teenagers; to utilize FSD).

This may be true and surprises me. My wife and I are 70+, and the prospect of a car that may eventually drive itself was a serious consideration in purchasing a Tesla. We are both healthy and drive fine, but like the idea of a idea of owning a car that improves its driving skills while ours inevitably declines. I paid for FSD and am delighted to be in the queue for a HW3 upgrade.
 
Tesla doing a price change is marketing. Look at all the free articles they get when they do it.

To me, it seems like Tesla is relying on price changes as a crutch instead of marketing because they are easy to do and the powers that be think advertising is a waste of money. At some point advertising should be under consideration as price changes are having broader negative impacts:

1. Lower margin
2. "One time" balance sheet impacts as inventory is worth millions of dollars less, as well as the increased cost of those resale value guarantee obligations.
3. When prices are in a downtrend people will wait to buy because they think that next month it will be cheaper and so far they have been right. This creates a price deflation cycle.
4. Lastly the price changes don't bring in a new group of buyers (well maybe the 35k announcement did) but for the most part these changes only reach people who are already socialized to the brand and understand the benefits of an EV.

Investing in Marketing on the other hand has the ability to raise awareness among people who are not already thinking about owning an EV or a Tesla. Tesla has a ton of cool technology they could showcase in a 30s TV spot. Tesla should conduct an experiment with an add buy and see if it's worth it, if not they can discontinue it. Businesses measure marketing spend very closely to establish the financial benefits. They would not be spending the money if they didn't find it to be worthwhile.

Musk's statement that they spend the money on making the product better instead of advertising shows a misunderstanding of the problem. The product is great, the problem is that not enough people are aware of that. Advertising can address this, as well as giving Tesla a voice to shape the narrative.
 
80k electric cars per quarter doesn't sound too shabby to me TBH. Show me the other car company currently selling 320,000 electric cars a year without a penny in advertising.
The stock price will do what it does, but for me, 80k would be good, 90k excellent. anything beyond that is just icing. Other companies are a decade (or to put it another way 3.2 million EV sales at that rate) behind Tesla, so no rush.
 
Morgan Stanley sets price of TSLA to $10? lol Even Cramer says they are nuts and just trolling basically.
Cramer calls Morgan Stanley's $10 worst-case scenario on Tesla stock 'really insane'
Same here. Towards the weekend there was new inventory up to 95, now it's back to 52.
if we assume most sales are on weekend, Fri-Mon would be a good time to check inventory.

Stepped out for 10 mins yesterday for a short walk to grocery, saw 5 M3s (office time).

Would be interesting to hear from folks in mid-west, smaller markets if they see the same .. (because M3 sightings in Cali no longer count) ;)
Here in KC model 3s are very common now. I can't go anywhere without seeing one.

Local inventory is 7 model S cars and 1 model 3. No X.
 
How does one get to go to this? Can any shareholder go?

I don’t recall if I signed up anywhere beforehand. I thought I might have, but I don’t see anything related in my e-mail history.

I voted beforehand in prior years and already voted my proxies for this year’s meeting. I vote as the company recommends. I go because it’s interesting and to be supportive. I also brought my son, who has some shares of his own, because I thought it would be instructive.

As I understand it, yes, any shareholder should be able to attend but they need to show ID and documentation of ownership of shares.

From the Tesla site for last year’s meeting:

Note: If you plan to attend the meeting in person, please bring your photo ID, and either the notice or card addressed to you on behalf of us or your broker or your brokerage statement as of April 12, 2018. Please see the materials you received for details. We will not admit anyone, including guests of shareholders, who does not have these documents.
 
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About gaming.

Look at the portz. Unity and Unreal. Sure Tesla can license 50 year old Atari games for pennies but I now look at what they are thinking about..Fortnite.

Essentially this is the beginnings of a Tesla app store, taking a chunk of revanue from microtransactions or just providing the platform.

So no porting games is not a waste of time. What are apps stores money makers for phones? Games....
It’s less about making money and more about the future Musk envisions. He sees autonomous driving happening very soon. He knows you can’t have people just sitting there looking at the road as the car drives...they’d rather be in control. But now let’s say in the future you can play a game while you drive, or watch a movie/tv show. Now the car provides entertainment thus making autonomous driving even more attractive.
 
Beware of any analyst talking about "demand problems"

If a regular car company is doing marketing and advertising, and they still don't have sales, that's a demand problem.

When Tesla is selling tons of cars, and have yet to pull the advertising lever, there is no demand problem.

Any "analyst" who say "demand problem" are not understanding, or purposely ignoring, the fact that Tesla is selling all these cars without any ads.

At some point, Tesla might indeed run out of people who are finding the cars organically.

And then, just a little tap on the ad pedal, could make things really explode.

Because really, the majority of people out there, have no idea what's happening... yet.

But then again, I see more and more and more Teslas on the road. The viral effect of your neighbor's Tesla could go a long long way.

One drive is all you need.

Ha, maybe that should be the first ad!
 
About gaming.

Look at the portz. Unity and Unreal. Sure Tesla can license 50 year old Atari games for pennies but I now look at what they are thinking about..Fortnite.

Essentially this is the beginnings of a Tesla app store, taking a chunk of revanue from microtransactions or just providing the platform.

So no porting games is not a waste of time. What are apps stores money makers for phones? Games....

Nothing says "not your dad's old car" like your car playing Fortnite.
 
Agreed they should follow the Apple play book here on pricing. There was only one large Iphone price change at the beginning, but after that they held their premium pricing constant.
I would tend to agree that a couple grand here or there is unlikely to bring in new buyers, or keep them away. You either see the value in a Tesla/EV or you don't. Until we can get EVS to be 20% cheaper than ICE cars, it's about features.
 
This is my ultimate demand test:

If everyone in the world test drive a Model 3 today, and understand Tesla's advantages (especially total cost of ownership), what would be Model 3's demand? I think the demand would easily pass 5 million a year. New vehicle market is 80 million a year, most of the buyers would think twice after they test drive the Model 3. Also there are 2000 million existing vehicles in the world, most of them would think "this Model 3 is amazing". Sure lots of people will stay with their existing vehicles, the bottom line is the vehicle market is huge and Tesla doesn't have a competition. Right now the problem is FUD and less awareness. If Tesla get strong demand, they can get higher margin, most of the concerns would be gone.
 
I’m not sure if this means anything but my Model 3 VIN is above 400,000, picking up this week :) I didn’t get top of the line, but did spend around $45k (excluding taxes) for the car.

I remember years ago before the model 3 was available I wanted a lower variant of the BMW 3 series, Mercedes C class or the Lexus IS, the price for those vehicles were around $42k after some options. I decided not to purchase those cars because I felt $42k was not worth the money. Fast forward a decade and I can say with confidence that the $45k Model 3 is worth every dime.

I currently have a Model S and let me tell you this, if Tesla refreshes the S in a couple years with the Maxwell batteries and a design similar to the roadster I’ll be getting a 3rd Tesla. I disagree with Adam Jonas, no way in hell we go to $98, let alone $10. For a frugal guy like me to want to spend this kind of money on a depreciating asset says it all. Give it a year or two, demand will only grow with more and more buyers being conscious of EVs and Tesla. I’m in it for the long haul.

Gas is above $4 in California, oil change on a luxury vehicle is $120-160. Do math Adam J.
 
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This is my ultimate demand test:

If everyone in the world test drive a Model 3 today, and understand Tesla's advantages (especially total cost of ownership), what would be Model 3's demand? I think the demand would easily pass 5 million a year. New vehicle market is 80 million a year, most of the buyers would think twice after they test drive the Model 3. Also there are 2000 million existing vehicles in the world, most of them would think "this Model 3 is amazing". Sure lots of people will stay with their existing vehicles, the bottom line is the vehicle market is huge and Tesla doesn't have a competition. Right now the problem is FUD and less awareness. If Tesla get strong demand, they can get higher margin, most of the concerns would be gone.
I basically agree, but the real barrier is charging. People don't understand charging. That's the key difference between EVs and ICE cars and people don't understand how it works, and have no idea what the positives look like.

People think cars and they think gas. We need to break them of this habit.
 
I've been hesitant to mention that, as it's certainly possible that they're 'just' porting Unity/Unreal because they want a game or two. But having both of those running on the system would also be... Well, if not a prerequisite for an app store, a very big draw for developers to an app store.


Nothing says "not your dad's old car" like your car playing Fortnite.
So if microtransactions are not allowed then Tesla will have to spend $$$$$ on a usage license. Not to mention all the engineering hours. Porting AAA games are not really side projects anymore.