Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Remus]

This is my ultimate demand test:

If everyone in the world test drive a Model 3 today, and understand Tesla's advantages (especially total cost of ownership), what would be Model 3's demand? I think the demand would easily pass 5 million a year. New vehicle market is 80 million a year, most of the buyers would think twice after they test drive the Model 3. Also there are 2000 million existing vehicles in the world, most of them would think "this Model 3 is amazing". Sure lots of people will stay with their existing vehicles, the bottom line is the vehicle market is huge and Tesla doesn't have a competition. Right now the problem is FUD and less awareness. If Tesla get strong demand, they can get higher margin, most of the concerns would be gone.

that is pretty much not relevant short term (in a year or two) as the market is never truly efficient. It took Toyota more than two decades convince the public in U.S. that they built solid cars. After year 2000 their quality slipped but the public image has not change at all.

it would be a while.

 

[Drumheller]

Friday of last week (4 days ago for me), I posted a long-ish post that boiled down to asking for replies regarding the stock price and demand. I've read every post (except those I have on ignore) since then. Nearly 100 pages. If I recall correctly, three people responded to me. I appreciated them taking the time to respond and giving their thoughts. However, nothing in the responses convinced me that there is evidence of demand still being stronger than supply. That viewpoint has been posted here multiple times in the past two months. (Kruggerand, you're going to need to buy more after this post).

Objectively, Tesla is giving signals of falling demand. Price cuts, leasing, discounts, free supercharging, and possibly others I don't recall at the moment.

Last week, the CEO wrote an email regarding continuing to improve efficiencies and lower costs. Not a bad thing, but he included the parts about reviewing every expense report and referenced the Q1 burn rate.

Then today, you cut prices.

If I had a company that had demand greater than my current production abilities, and I'm asking my employees to squeeze everything so we can be profitable, I'm not going to cut prices a week later on my products. That makes zero sense.

If someone can share evidence that demand is stronger than production, I would very much like to see that.

If someone can explain a reason why a company with demand greater than supply would cut prices, I would also very much like to read that.

If demand is falling, I don't think it has anything to do with the quality of the product. It would, however, probably correlate with Tesla not working to own their story.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

This may be true and surprises me. My wife and I are 70+, and the prospect of a car that may eventually drive itself was a serious consideration in purchasing a Tesla. We are both healthy and drive fine, but like the idea of a idea of owning a car that improves its driving skills while ours inevitably declines. I paid for FSD and am delighted to be in the queue for a HW3 upgrade.

While I may not be quite as "experienced" as yourself, your reasoning exactly mirrors my own.

Dan

 

[M3Rider]

Anybody noticed that the U.S. inventory of non-Ravens grew lately? I did not record specific numbers, but S went from like 400+ yesterday to 700+ today on ev-cpo.com. wondering how were they able to make them if they upgraded the lines for Ravens.
Probably, some of these were in transit for some 1-2 weeks before landing in a SC, but still, it was a few days since some Ravens were delivered including transit. Wondering if they had multiple lines going(they let go people for one shift, didn't they?) or this transition somehow happened with no downtime at all? It seems these old S/X need to stop increasing in numbers

 

[Tslynk67]

I think this pretty much sums things up

Watch-out, CNBC...

Apple bid to buy Tesla in 2013 for $240 a share, analyst says

 

[RoadsterPlease]

congrats to everyone who bought in the past two days, this will grow into an excellent investment.

 

[JusRelax]

I've been hesitant to mention that, as it's certainly possible that they're 'just' porting Unity/Unreal because they want a game or two. But having both of those running on the system would also be... Well, if not a prerequisite for an app store, a very big draw for developers to an app store.

I'm pretty sure this is a hard move towards an app store. Why? Because Elon truly does see FSD as game, set, match. I already previously mentioned another indicator that Elon sees FSD as a foregone conclusion in a previous post regarding the UI of the Tesla FSD video from Autonomy Day. Note that the UI isn't just a UI for FSD, it's a UI specifically for robotaxis:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Elon is completely acting as if he doesn't believe, but knows that Tesla will be first to FSD. I just hope that @neroden isn't correct in predicting that Elon's overconfidence may be causing him to overlook difficulties with FSD regarding driving policy.

 

[sparcs]

Objectively, Tesla is giving signals of falling demand. Price cuts, leasing, discounts, free supercharging, and possibly others I don't recall at the moment.

How do you factor in the price increase on the Model 3 which is their volume selling vehicle?

 

[Nocturnal]

I think this pretty much sums things up

Watch-out, CNBC...

Apple bid to buy Tesla in 2013 for $240 a share, analyst says

View attachment 410193

I certainly hope it doesn't happen at $240.

If someone can explain a reason why a company with demand greater than supply would cut prices, I would also very much like to read that.
.

It is definitely possible for a company to cut prices in order to increase demand and shift their supply curve to the right. "We would rather sell 110 cars at $100 each than sell 100 cars at $110 each". That of course assumes they aren't production limited long term. Short term, maybe. But with GF2 this may have been their plan. Possible that something threw a wrench in that. (might also explain the recent price increase)​

 

[Swampgator]

Friday of last week (4 days ago for me), I posted a long-ish post that boiled down to asking for replies regarding the stock price and demand. I've read every post (except those I have on ignore) since then. Nearly 100 pages. If I recall correctly, three people responded to me. I appreciated them taking the time to respond and giving their thoughts. However, nothing in the responses convinced me that there is evidence of demand still being stronger than supply. That viewpoint has been posted here multiple times in the past two months. (Kruggerand, you're going to need to buy more after this post).

Objectively, Tesla is giving signals of falling demand. Price cuts, leasing, discounts, free supercharging, and possibly others I don't recall at the moment.

Last week, the CEO wrote an email regarding continuing to improve efficiencies and lower costs. Not a bad thing, but he included the parts about reviewing every expense report and referenced the Q1 burn rate.

Then today, you cut prices.

If I had a company that had demand greater than my current production abilities, and I'm asking my employees to squeeze everything so we can be profitable, I'm not going to cut prices a week later on my products. That makes zero sense.

If someone can share evidence that demand is stronger than production, I would very much like to see that.

If someone can explain a reason why a company with demand greater than supply would cut prices, I would also very much like to read that.

If demand is falling, I don't think it has anything to do with the quality of the product. It would, however, probably correlate with Tesla not working to own their story.

They raised prices on Model 3. Yes, demand for S and X appear weaker than last year. But those cars combined sell at a rate 1/4 that of the Model 3. Impact to GM from those diminishing sales is hurting the bottom line. Hence the need for further belt tightening. But demand for Model 3 is strong.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Friday of last week (4 days ago for me), I posted a long-ish post that boiled down to asking for replies regarding the stock price and demand. I've read every post (except those I have on ignore) since then. Nearly 100 pages. If I recall correctly, three people responded to me. I appreciated them taking the time to respond and giving their thoughts. However, nothing in the responses convinced me that there is evidence of demand still being stronger than supply. That viewpoint has been posted here multiple times in the past two months. (Kruggerand, you're going to need to buy more after this post).

Objectively, Tesla is giving signals of falling demand. Price cuts, leasing, discounts, free supercharging, and possibly others I don't recall at the moment.

But the move that has me wondering if I've made a mistake with my stock investments is having the CEO write an email last week regarding continuing to improve efficiencies and lower costs. Not a bad thing, but he included the parts about reviewing every expense report and referenced the Q1 burn rate.

Then today, you cut prices.

If I had a company that had demand greater than my current production abilities, and I'm asking my employees to squeeze everything so we can be profitable, I'm not going to cut prices a week later on my products. That makes zero sense.

If someone can share evidence that demand is stronger than production, I would very much like to see that.

If someone can explain a reason why a company with demand greater than supply would cut prices, I would also very much like to read that.

If demand is falling, I don't think it has anything to do with the quality of the product. It would, however, probably correlate with Tesla not working to own their story.

Just to note: they also increased prices of Model 3 and the full self driving package recently(and made Autopilot mandatory, effectively increasing base price of all their cars).

And the free supercharging is only for inventory S/X, which is all pre-refresh.

 

[bhzmark]

real concern of a lower SP, not privatizing but a take over.

That is the fatal flaw in the short argument. It is laughable to think that even the worst Tesla case means bankruptcy or $10 since they would be such an attractive target to buy at lower prices where things are now.

At the price now I think the downside is very limited.

 

[sparcs]

Looks like we're starting to find a little support. green

 

[Tslynk67]

As do all the BS posters lately.

Can I just say that @WarpedOne doesn't have a bearish or FUDish posting history, quirky, yes, but that's all. I think like many, he/she has been thrown a curveball with recent events, causing a lot of frustration and, in some cases, considerable financial distress.

I think everyone who's invested with the stock has the right to criticise without being laid open to personal attacks. The criticism itself is fair-game for debate, but play the ball, not the man.

This doesn't apply just to this particular sub-discussion in this thread, but to a lot of recent bickering; I think we should all calm down a bit.

 

[M3Rider]

I certainly hope it doesn't happen at $240.

I am scared shitless of something like this. I bought at the going private prices and it would do me a huge damage.

 

[TradingInvest]

To me, it seems like Tesla is relying on price changes as a crutch instead of marketing because they are easy to do and the powers that be think advertising is a waste of money. At some point advertising should be under consideration as price changes are having broader negative impacts:

1. Lower margin
2. "One time" balance sheet impacts as inventory is worth millions of dollars less, as well as the increased cost of those resale value guarantee obligations.
3. When prices are in a downtrend people will wait to buy because they think that next month it will be cheaper and so far they have been right. This creates a price deflation cycle.
4. Lastly the price changes don't bring in a new group of buyers (well maybe the 35k announcement did) but for the most part these changes only reach people who are already socialized to the brand and understand the benefits of an EV.

Investing in Marketing on the other hand has the ability to raise awareness among people who are not already thinking about owning an EV or a Tesla. Tesla has a ton of cool technology they could showcase in a 30s TV spot. Tesla should conduct an experiment with an add buy and see if it's worth it, if not they can discontinue it. Businesses measure marketing spend very closely to establish the financial benefits. They would not be spending the money if they didn't find it to be worthwhile.

Musk's statement that they spend the money on making the product better instead of advertising shows a misunderstanding of the problem. The product is great, the problem is that not enough people are aware of that. Advertising can address this, as well as giving Tesla a voice to shape the narrative.

They don't even need to do traditional advertising (which is costly and not effective). Just a nice website with good information, plus some short videos. So people can visit this website to find more info. Tesla people worked so hard to create cars that are so amazing, great for the environment, safe, intelligent, convenient... but when I talk to people about Tesla, it seems all they know are negative points. At this point Tesla did nothing to spread the message or counter the FUD. Shorts must be rolling on the floor laughing.

Many hardest supporters/investors got permanently hurt. Their fighting power has been reduced dramatically since mid 2018.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I still don't have a comfortable feel for current demand, so to me it's perfectly fine for analysts to question it.

That being said....the recent price moves have nothing to do with demand IMO. Neither does adding leasing or discounting older/showroom models. This is a product line that will need tweaks, just like all product lines. These moves are designed to maximize EV penetration in line with the Master Plan.

Can I order a $38k Model 3 right now and get it within a month? If so, I think questioning demand is fine. They'd be wrong, but it's perfectly understandable. This product is untouchable in value, nothing any analyst says is going to change that. Have some faith people.

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla at LEAST needs to do some more videos. You don't even have to pay to put them on TV, just stick them online. Make a video that shows how you charge at home, and on the road. Talk about the time it takes vs time you save. etc.

Yahoo is now part of Oath



Tesla (TSLA) has reportedly hired the social media manager behind a tweet of a large old sheep that went viral.

Is this the person now running Tesla's twitter account? If so it was a great choice. He/she is killing it.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Can I just say that @WarpedOne doesn't have a bearish or FUDish posting history, quirky, yes, but that's all. I think like many, he/she has been thrown a curveball with recent events, causing a lot of frustration and, in some cases, considerable financial distress.

I think everyone who's invested with the stock has the right to criticise without being laid open to personal attacks. The criticism itself is fair-game for debate, but play the ball, not the man.

This doesn't apply just to this particular sub-discussion in this thread, but to a lot of recent bickering; I think we should all calm down a bit.

I mean, sure, but at least add something to the conversation? All I’ve seen him/her do recently is say they’re a “garbage company” over and over again.

 

[AlexS]

Friday of last week (4 days ago for me), I posted a long-ish post that boiled down to asking for replies regarding the stock price and demand. I've read every post (except those I have on ignore) since then. Nearly 100 pages. If I recall correctly, three people responded to me. I appreciated them taking the time to respond and giving their thoughts. However, nothing in the responses convinced me that there is evidence of demand still being stronger than supply. That viewpoint has been posted here multiple times in the past two months. (Kruggerand, you're going to need to buy more after this post).

Objectively, Tesla is giving signals of falling demand. Price cuts, leasing, discounts, free supercharging, and possibly others I don't recall at the moment.

Last week, the CEO wrote an email regarding continuing to improve efficiencies and lower costs. Not a bad thing, but he included the parts about reviewing every expense report and referenced the Q1 burn rate.

Then today, you cut prices.

If I had a company that had demand greater than my current production abilities, and I'm asking my employees to squeeze everything so we can be profitable, I'm not going to cut prices a week later on my products. That makes zero sense.

If someone can share evidence that demand is stronger than production, I would very much like to see that.

If someone can explain a reason why a company with demand greater than supply would cut prices, I would also very much like to read that.

If demand is falling, I don't think it has anything to do with the quality of the product. It would, however, probably correlate with Tesla not working to own their story.

Demand for M3 is very good, Demand for SX 100D/Long range seems to be topped out, that's why they brought back standard range, the level will come back to 25k SX in q3. I hope they increased capacity of paint shop to be able to produce all these cars.

Maybe they also didn't have enough old style motors and Raven motors were not ready so they decided to produce only 100D-s in 1q