Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

It’s not clear to me: can non raven 100 kwh S charge up to 200 kw rate on v3? I know non-raven 100 kWh S can now charge up to 150 kw on v2, but what about max charge rates on v3?

You might be right actually - I asked for clarification on whether pre-Raven could charge up to 200kWh and never got a response.

 

[EVDRVN]

This forum is giving a lot of weight to CNBC reporting. But how many people actually watch that channel? How many potential Model 3 buyers are watching hour after hour of stock market and business news?

No idea but two of my friends roll it all day and sit and trade-LOL. One was thinking of a 3.

 

[Boomer19]

This forum is giving a lot of weight to CNBC reporting. But how many people actually watch that channel? How many potential Model 3 buyers are watching hour after hour of stock market and business news?

not many as of oct 2018...and falling
Lou Dobbs, Maria Bartiromo Lead Fox Business To Big Ratings Win

 

[Zaxxon]

OT:

The new badging strategy is stupid. Aren't they all dual motor? I ordered a Raven XP with Ludicrous and I am debadging the ducking thing if it comes with "dual motor".

I mean sure, just as all Tesla Model Xs are Teslas and Model Xs. But those badges still go on.

 

[DaveT]

Iirc, Elon said this during the groundbreaking ceremony in Shanghai. That was very difficult to believe as he was standing in a field of mud. With the current progress of GF3, it’s less unbelievable. However, I also think Elon dialed it down to 1000 or 2000/week by the end of the year during the latest earnings cc.

@NicoV Can you confirm he said September for initial production in the groundbreaking ceremony?

All I'm seeing is this...

Tesla CEO Musk breaks ground at Shanghai Gigafactory to launch China push - Reuters

“We think with the resources here we can build the Shanghai Gigafactory in record time and we’re looking forward to hopefully having some initial production of the Model 3 towards the end of this year and achieving volume production next year,” Musk said at the event.​

 

[NicoV]

What downgrade will tomorrow bring?

I don’t know what kind of downgrade can force the price to drop more than todays drop on a downgrade to 10 dollar.

 

[Tslynk67]

The new badging strategy is stupid. Aren't they all dual motor? I ordered a Raven XP with Ludicrous and I am debadging the ducking thing if it comes with "dual motor".

I can sell you my P100D badge for a few $TSLA - bargain at current prices!

 

[Tslynk67]

MS hasn't been able to develop any new revenue streams in forever. Although that might mean we would see red rings of death in our Teslas though so....

Imagine a BSOD while you're driving...

 

[PatP]

I respectfully disagree. More consistent with Model 3 and a great marketing tool. BMW owners and others are often surprised and ask me if this is true that my car has two motors.

The new badging strategy is stupid. Aren't they all dual motor? I ordered a Raven XP with Ludicrous and I am debadging the ducking thing if it comes with "dual motor".

 

[tslagreen]

Just a FYI,

All companies worst bear case is $10.

More exactly worst case is $0.

WTF is this *sugar*?

F Adam Jok-ass. I mean it is pure, unadulterated short seller manipulation to through out these ridiculous "worst case"
scenarios. As you point out, worst case is 0 or bankruptcy. The timing, of course, is to pile on to prior SP reductions and warnings from other so-called sages.

Despite that, there are legitimate questions that many have (including me) about Elon's projections, the demand issue, the unpredictability of pricing, profit-no profit, FSD, closing stores - opening stores, etc..

This ain't your father's stock - acceleration and deceleration similar to Space X rockets!

 

[NicoV]

@NicoV Can you confirm he said September for initial production in the groundbreaking ceremony?

I remember hearing that statement, and to the best of what I can remember it must have in that groundbreaking ceremony. But my memory may be wrong, it may also have been in a press conference or so about GF3. I listen to a lot of those videos and calls. It doesn’t really matter, it is just to confirm that @neroden isn’t making this up, other people like me also heard that.
With the latest Q1 statement of 1000/2000 per week around end of year, what’s so difficult to believe that you have to do initial;production in september?

 

[AlexS]

What downgrade will tomorrow bring?

Important one:
Goldman Sachs - Their current PT is 210, they are usually one of the last ones to cut

 

[RobStark]

BMW CEO's future in doubt as board tensions emerge, report says

MUNICH -- BMW AG CEO Harald Krueger’s job is hanging in the balance as the luxury carmaker steers through a fundamental shift toward electric and autonomous vehicles as well as weakening markets, people familiar with the discussions said.

 

[TradingInvest]

Jack Ma, founder of Baba, said his success has nothing to do with technical or business skills. “I know nothing about technology, I know nothing about marketing, I know nothing about [the legal] stuff... I only know about people. Everything we do as a founder: Make your customer happy. Get your team. Make your team happy. And you will be happy.”

I hope Elon can learn a bit from this. Should try hard to make the team happy, instead of firing people left and right. High pressure and tight schedule will not work well in the long run.

 

[Curt Renz]

The stupid CNBC is covering Tesla like 5 times every hour. And I may not be exaggerating here.

It certainly seems that way. Undoubtedly analyst Jonas knew his worst case TSLA target of $10 would be click bait for the media, with his mid-case and best case targets of $230 and $391 likely to be largely ignored. And the media dutifully bit, especially CNBC which may be the most upset with Tesla for not providing advertising dollars or interviewees.

 

[kbM3]

Easiest way to check: look at SR+ Model 3 cost. It was a memorable $37,000 when they first released it. Currently at $39,900(+2500 from AP and +$400 from recent price increase).

My recollection is that SR+ was $37.5k originally. Autopilot inclusion coincided with a $2k price raise.

 

[Doggydogworld]

(2) Tesla makes so many of their own parts that the main things they buy -- rolls of steel, rolls of aluminum, raw plastic pellets -- are commodities which are straightforward to line up.

Another Tesla myth. They are more vertically integrated than the typical carmaker, but they only had 41k employees on 3/31/19. Even if half are in manufacturing (estimates say less), that's not even 1.5 billion of annual labor COGS vs. 15b+ total annual auto COGS. Add another billion for depreciation of plants, equipment and tooling and you're still only at 15% or so of total auto COGS. The other 85% is almost entirely purchased parts and materials. Steel, aluminum and plastic are a small part of that.

​

Now, you have drawn the wrong conclusion. But there is a correct conclusion. Tesla will have to build a *lot* of factories inside that Shanghai factory:
-- metal casting (copying Lathrop in the US)
-- seat construction (copying the Page Ave. factory in the US)
-- pack construction (copying the Sparks Gigafactory)
-- and of course body, paint, and final assembly (copying Fremont)

It's only stamping, welding/joining, paint and final assembly plus battery module/pack assembly in this year. That's Phase 1, which they say will achieve 3000/week. That's straight from the 10-K, the Q4 letter and the Q4 call. I'm certain they also said they will add seat and drive unit assembly in 2020, but I can't find the quote. I don't recall if they said anything about casting.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Seems like 200 is a reasonable stopping point but we all thought that at higher prices as well.

200 isn't the stopping point today, it's the lower Bollinger band, its at $206.47 currently. But as you can see on the 10-day chart (below), the lower BB is going down about $5/day over the last 3 days:

The SP has been riding the lower-BB down for at least the last 50 days, with a brief respite after the $2.4B Cap raise. Then, it kissed the middle-BB, then marched down until the 'memo' when it broke below the lower-BB.

Still, there was strong volume of 18M shares with good support on a 'no-good-news-day', with the SP holding in spite of MS/Jonas blathering. If we can hold near these levels, the BBs will flatten out and deter some technical selling.

TSLA is an amazing deal at this SP: the 200-day Moving Average is 301.39 now. That's a strong 'Buy' signal.

Cheers!

 

[dakh]

On a +1.08% Nasdaq day.

One quarter. SP goes $350 -> $200.
Like the company has devalued so much after this single Q, which results have reasonable explanations that it has no future.

Just crazy. I don't see how anybody arguing that a lower price is justified due to Q1 can believe that.

Disclaimer: I'm not a trader or anything even close. But I don't think there's anything crazy here. All the signals (right or wrong, but that's sentiment), and I'm sure there are entities there with much better insight into what's really going on, point to another dismal quarter result. As in, much lower deliveries then expected, and much bigger loss. There's just no reason to buy right now. After quarter results come out, folks are now expecting SP to further drop. Even if one wanted to buy more, now would not be the time yet. There's a support at which "accumulators" can't resit buying some but it is at $200.

 

[tinm]

In certain US States, dealership laws prevent Automakers from servicing their own cars. Yes, that has been extended to OTA updates.

Dealers feel threatened whenever they are shouldered away from the trough cut of the loop.

Whoa there. Citation please? I live in an extremely anti-Tesla state (legislatively speaking) and I am unaware of any law nor news article nor discussion with Tesla, its lobbyist, or the legislators, or even the dealers themselves, regarding laws that have extended the franchise dealer power to now exist over OTA updates as well as physical service centers/stores when it comes to Tesla. That sounds extremely unlikely. Are there other states actually doing this? Seems to me it would be major news, yet this is the first peep I've heard about it. Eager to get any tangible citations for this claim.