Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

Oh, absolutely agreed that the AP is mis-quoting. I'm just pointing out that Tesla unnecessarily makes it easy to do that, by making the actual price of the car less prominent than the 'after savings' price. As for the diff between what you and I see, the Tesla site varies the incentives based on the location it thinks you're viewing from.

OK, follow up question: What do you see as Model S pricing? I can't see any way to get to $71,250...

 

[Dutchie]

Wow! CNBC sinking to new lows. Just had perma-bear Gabe Hoffman on spouting his anti-Tesla crap w/o any real challenge (the lead in, of course, was the Jonas $10 call) - "Tesla going to zero." "Model 3 horribly built." "Quality so bad that car washes refuse to wash the car because of thin paint and the panel gaps (fear of water leaking into the car)." Where is the SEC on this short seller? This guy says anything he wants without backing up his assertions, and without challenge from CNBC. I own a Model 3 - best car I have ever owned. I have none of the issues about which Hoffman spews.

Just wonder how much sales iseffect d by all these negative stories lately. I am afraid that people start to be hesitant, which only will effect stock price and negativity more

 

[jerry33]

I did a bit more research and found an average viewership of 154,000 for CNBC in 2018. That is appaling, in a country of 330 million people. Why are we even talking about what that channel says? Is it because many here are investors and some have that channel on 24/7, that are we giving CNBC so much weight? Much more than it deserves? What is the influence on TSLA, let alone on Tesla (potential customers)?

As I posted earlier, when I was showing the car at an EarthDay event, not one person mentioned any Tesla FUD. Everyone asked about range, and a few asked about service. Only one couple didn't know anything about Tesla (They did know about SpaceX).

 

[hcdavis3]

Just wonder how much sales iseffect d by all these negative stories lately. I am afraid that people start to be hesitant, which only will effect stock price and negativity more

That’s why I believe Tesla should begin an advertising campaign to counter all the bullshit in the press. Even if they are maxed out on production. Build for the future.

 

[heltok]

At all-hands meeting Jeff Bezos tells employees he's 'very excited' about the auto industry
After SpaceX, now TSLA ...

Totally left field, but maybe Microsoft should buy a stake in Tesla. Long time ago it saved Apple. Also, unlike Apple, Google etc it hasn't spent a cent in MAAS (Mobility As A Service). ...

Thinking about it, wouldn’t it make sense for Amazon to take a stake in Tesla, use semi and robottaxis for deliveries? Amazon, the stream of goods needs some transportation and Tesla are going full into the transportation service sector. Amazon adding people transportation is not that far fetched from retail transportation. After reading the everything store it imo makes sense for Amazon to at least consider going full into transportation and at current valuation Tesla seems like a nobrainer just for the Semi and Robottaxi play imo.

 

[TradingInvest]

Talking to the person in charge... it's evident to me production ramp in Shanghai is going to be much more difficult than people here think.

Some of the recent videos show how complex the production lines are. It will take a lot of engineers and a lot of time to get everything right. Even though on surface it seems like a copy paste.

 

[dakh]

Talking to the person in charge... it's evident to me production ramp in Shanghai is going to be much more difficult than people here think.

For one, they'd have to figure out where the batteries are coming from...

 

[hcdavis3]

Thinking about it, wouldn’t it make sense for Amazon to take a stake in Tesla, use semi and robottaxis for deliveries? Amazon, the stream of goods needs some transportation and Tesla are going full into the transportation service sector. Amazon adding people transportation is not that far fetched from retail transportation. After reading the everything store it imo makes sense for Amazon to at least consider going full into transportation and at current valuation Tesla seems like a nobrainer just for the Semi and Robottaxi play imo.

Regardless of what Elon says, robotaxis are a ways out. Still a good idea.

 

[Alphacrux]

Good call. I feel there is a troll spectrum, from blatant to subtle.

The one you refer to is on the blatant end of the spectrum, easy to spot, and thus rather harmless. In a way, they even help the cause, because it suggests this thought train...
Somebody is paying this person. Somebody fears Tesla. If somebody fears Tesla, then Tesla must be about to disrupt a status quo that benefits that somebody. If Tesla were really a train wreck as the blatant trolls tell us, there would be no such trolls on the payroll. Their existence proves their words false.

The harder to call out trolls are the subtle variety. The giveaway phrase is “I really hope it doesn’t happen, but I fear the stock will see {current price less $10} today. Endless varieties of this style of comment.

A good troll spot tool is to check who rates the more obvious troll comments with ‘like’.

Another good troll spot tool is the use of the word, “promise”. ‘Elon promised..”.

 

[qunqun]

Jack Ma, founder of Baba, said his success has nothing to do with technical or business skills. “I know nothing about technology, I know nothing about marketing, I know nothing about [the legal] stuff... I only know about people. Everything we do as a founder: Make your customer happy. Get your team. Make your team happy. And you will be happy.”

I hope Elon can learn a bit from this. Should try hard to make the team happy, instead of firing people left and right. High pressure and tight schedule will not work well in the long run.

He’s definitely not doing what he said, employees in alibaba work 996(9am-9pm, 6 days a week)

And he said “you should be happy that you have the opportunity to work 996”.

I don't think the team are happy there.

 

[jerry33]

That’s why I believe Tesla should begin an advertising campaign to counter all the bullshit in the press. Even if they are maxed out on production. Build for the future.

What makes you think an ad campaign would be effective when for every one Tesla ad there will be ten to twenty hit pieces? Unless they have one on each commercial segment during each hit piece newscast--something they can't afford to do and still grow.

Some informational videos (on the site and youtube) would be good. (Not just the cars driving through snow--I really want the paint they use on those cars which stays perfectly clean regardless of dust, snow, or rain.)

 

[jerry33]

Some of the recent videos show how complex the production lines are. It will take a lot of engineers and a lot of time to get everything right. Even though on surface it seems like a copy paste.

But at least they are mostly replicating, not starting fresh the way they did the last few times.

 

[Zaxxon]

OK, follow up question: What do you see as Model S pricing? I can't see any way to get to $71,250...

Base price minus fed rebate, sans gas savings.
$75k - $3750 = $71250. That's not what I see, but that's how you get there.

 

[neroden]

Hmm, I’m guessing their order mix was too slanted towards LR?

This actually makes sense given the apparently-not-expandable 18650 battery supply; they may not be able to handle an S/X order mix overly slanted towards LR.

 

[MP3Mike]

For instance, in upstate NY, I can literally walk into the DMV any time they're open, with no appointment, with the Manufacturer's Certificate of Origin and Bill of Sale and walk out with plates 10 minutes later. It barely makes sense for Tesla to do the processing themselves at all in NY; just send the required documents to the customer, who can get plates much more quickly.

That only works if you are buying a car outright. If they are financing it you can't trust them to have the DMV put the proper lien on the title.

 

[Alphacrux]

Another good troll spot tool is the use of the word, “promise”. ‘Elon promised..”.

In fact as you know, nothing is certain except death and taxes. And I tell people that while they may eventually be able to do something about death, I’m afraid taxes will be with us forever.

 

[neroden]

All inventory S and X has free supercharging

They still have 100% pre-Raven inventory, right? They HAVE to clear that out with some kind of incentives. This isn't a change.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

So, we're now down ~2% after hours... Just the false report by AP, or something else?

EDIT: Oh, and I see ABC is now also reporting the false numbers.

 

[mblakele]

Talking to the person in charge... it's evident to me production ramp in Shanghai is going to be much more difficult than people here think.

What makes this evident to you? How could you share enough information to make it evident to us? I know you've been around here much longer than I have, and you may be right. But so far you've just been repeating hearsay and cautioning that Tesla's public goals are "way too optimistic" — not very convincing.

Maybe it depends on what you call "production"? I'll suggest one way Tesla might get Shanghai up and running: General Assembly. We're told that it took about 15 days to bring up the Fremont sprung-structure mostly-manual GA line for Model 3. Allow 30 days in a brand-new plant. Heck, allow 60. Meanwhile start shipping parts from Fremont — more expensive than sourcing them locally, but cheaper than shipping assembled vehicles. If the Shanghai factory floor is ready by the end of June, why couldn't it be running a GA-only line within 4-8 weeks?

Paint, maybe. There was some argument earlier this year about whether Tesla would ship panels to Shanghai, or BIW, or painted bodies. I'm not sure what the right answer is. If Shanghai GA needs a local paint shop, how long might that take?

Of course GA is only GA. So in parallel, work on setting up parts production in Shanghai. Also work on getting parts delivered straight to Shanghai, instead of going through Fremont. As various components become available, stop shipping those parts from Fremont. That's certainly a more complex series of projects — and maybe that's where your "person in charge" comes in?

 

[neroden]

How much did M3 prices go up ? Was it after M3 prices had been cut several times already ?

How much have S/X prices been cut this year alone ? $20K+ ?

The base price for Model S is now only $15K higher than it was in 2013... it's actually surprising they managed to run so many price increases in the past. (If I want to be fairer, the current base model S is slightly cheaper in inflation-adjusted terms than the barebones S60 was.)

I'll admit, I did miss that news on the M3 cut last week (was there an Electrek story ?).

But this is not a thread on price cuts. The significance here is there will likely be a miss on Q2. I hope that is already priced into the SP.

Who knows what's priced in -- traders are idiots. It should be priced in since I haven't found a single analyst who believes that Tesla will deliver 90K cars in Q2.