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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Nice, but these orders are a product of Canadian subsidies and incentives like Q4 in the US.

Is there anyplace Tesla sales have been on fire without subsidies? Is there any chance of more tax subsidies in the US? That might be what it takes to get Tesla sales and the stock going again.

Is there any place where fossil fuels and ICE vehicles are not heavy subsidised?

Here in Brussels, there are no subsidies for EV's, but the car taxes are based on CO2 pollution produced - this is neither a subsidy and, TBH, the taxes are not high enough for the ICE.
 
I have a tough time believing Vancouver as a city is seeing 800 orders a week based on rumor. I would love to see this verified.

2,400 per week for Vancouver is simply a dream. No way that is true.
There's like a $50M-odd budget for the Provincial EV incentive. They burned through that in like 4 days. Then the BC Gov't topped off the incentive fund by doubling it to ~$100M. I expect that's all gone by now too.

Have to seach for the current news to keep up, but here's the underlying movitation; Gasoline is about $1.60 / Liter in metro Vancouver right now, and the new right wing Government in neighboring, oil-rich Albera just passed a law allowing them to 'turn off the taps' on the oil pipeline from AB to BC unless they get their way in permiting new pipelines to tidewater.

So BC is sensiblly encouraging it's residents to 'go electric' (BC is near 100% Hydro), and they are negotiating with neighboring Washington State for gasoline supplies.

HTH. Cheers!
 
Wish I had a few grand laying around somewhere. I would love to jump in at these prices...

Me too... dont have any money really, but scrounged up $200 to buy some calls.
Will take a week before the funds are at schwab. But then I wouldnt be surprised if SP was shorted down toward 150 - and I'll be ready to buy a few medium term calls.:p

Damn.. I was fully loaded with calls before christmas - bad timing.. all expired worthless. :( One last try..
 
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I watch on all this mayhem with bated breath (as a believer and small investor - which I don't mind losing for the 'cause')

This are maybe naïve questions as I'm not sure how it all works.....

If Tesla can produce and sell x number of cars and be profitable (albeit at a reduced amount) can they go 'bust' if the SP goes really low for whatever reason?

Will the SP get a low level where there can be a 'hostile' takeover by some entity buying a vast number of shares? This may be by another car company to get 'into Tesla' or to phase Tesla out of the equation. Or even a hostile group like big oil.....

Or can it at that point be taken private cheaply? Is Tesla 'too big to fail now' - surely Tesla won't just close the doors and stop all car production; shut down the supercharging network; and go home...?!

If I was Elon, I'd be so tempted to just de-camp to China and Europe and keep a minimal presence in USA if the media/oil/gov/analysts/WS etc are so hostile. F..k the lot of them (and he's not even American really)

They can try, but any attempt will trigger a short squeeze which would effectively block the take over attempt as the price will become too expensive. With Elon personally owning almost 25% (just a rough guess), the attempt will never gain enough votes to succeed anyway.
 
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I'm not suggesting a goal of manipulating price. I'm suggesting a goal of buying many shares, which has a byproduct of influencing price.
What if Tesla took their $2.4B cash raise and bought shares and calls representing 30% of TSLA? They'd be in the position to force a short squeeze using exactly the same tactics Porsche Automobil Holding SE used to take over Volkswagen in 2008.

Of course they'd need to let the SP fall to a near 5-year low to get that kind of leverage (4.5x). Say...

Porsche reinvents the short squeeze | NY Times, Oct 30, 2008​

Cheers!
 
They can try, but any attempt will trigger a short squeeze which would effectively block the take over attempt as the price will become too expensive. With Elon personally owning almost 25% (just a rough guess), the attempt will never gain enough votes to succeed anyway.

Correct, Elon made clear a few times that he will never will leave or allow others to take a larger stake.

If you just watch the history him purchasing and adding where he can and considering family and good friends shares there is just no opportunity for a hostile takeover and no reason for a friendly one.

Those rumors are spread by FUDsters to make longs nervous to start selling.

If another company/person wants to accumulate a larger stake he would have probably nothing against it to stabilize the SP
 
Very interesting. Just curious - how did you hear about this? I've not heard of it, seems to be on stealth mode no? Any knowledge of the board members or founders (nothing mentioned in the wiki)? Would be super epic if Elon is behind this and does actually take Tesla there.

It's been in the News, but it was only approved by the SEC 7 days ago now. Read the Wikipedia page I linked above to see more References like this one:


EDIT: the Founder of the LTSE is none other than Silicon Valley Entrepreneur Marc Andreessen (co-author of Mosaic, the first widely used Web browser; co-founder of Netscape; and co-founder and general partner of Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz).
 
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From a Chinese investment forum. No idea its authenticity. For your reference only.

well if this is true and they average out over 6k production for this qtr close to 90k will be possible, but I wouldn't bet on that. But 80k seems now realistic. But I also got too exited about 1q projections based on reading too much TMC - that ended bad for me.
 
Along with the financial pain, this drop has caused me to get grief from others. My dad told me to stay away from Tesla when we were still in the 250 range. Just tonda my brother asked what I was doing with my Tesla stock. People at work are also asking. I'm sure I'm going to get it tomorrow from two other stock holders I haven't seen in a while who don't hold as much as I do. It sucks trying to explain to them that the stock price is no indication of the health and progress of the company. Still growing around 50%/year with no end in site for a few years.... Sigh.. o_O

Yes. This is what I hate about this game: it's a self-fulfilling prophecy, preying on people's emotions (and money, of course, if there they are on margin). My personal fear is that the notable weakness of Musk is actually the "emotional mind", and understanding how much emotions affect people behavior and life. Even Tesla employees have a lot of stock options, so SP matters, especially if it's low like these days.
Tesla board shoudl try to do something about this, to reassure markets and institutions.
 
It's been in the News, but it was only approved by the SEC 7 days ago now. Read the Wikipedia page I linked above to see more References like this one:


Cheers!

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What are you basing your opinion on?

1) I would like to see a second data point showing that Vancouver is seeing 800 orders per week. To trust a single source can lead to folly.

2) I do not believe 2,400 orders per week coming from a single city is realistic. It is certainly possible for an occasional spike, but this would assume Vancouver is accounting for roughly a third of Tesla worldwide production capacity. Amazing if true, but IMO, highly unlikely. To put this into perspective it would mean that Tesla spends at least two days a week making cars for Vancouver alone.
 
It's been in the News, but it was only approved by the SEC 7 days ago now. Read the Wikipedia page I linked above to see more References like this one:


EDIT: the Founder of the LTSE is none other than Silicon Valley Entrepreneur Marc Andreessen (co-author of Mosaic, the first widely used Web browser; co-founder of Netscape; and co-founder and general partner of Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz).
Thanks. The link requires a subscription, but was able to read a little. What's interesting to me is that Peter Thiel is a founder. Peter, as we know, is a friend/former partner of Elon's.
I think it would really cool if a Silicon Valley cadre were strategically planning on how to shift power from Wall St to the Valley. Setup a whole new eco system of investment banks and exchanges, because if they aren't on board with making the world a better place then f*ck em. We already know there's a disruptive force (fintech) nipping at the traditional financial world.