Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

I love this post but hate the facts. When I switched from my beloved P85D I was dismayed by the shoddy delivery mess. The car itself was amazing, although the badging has not yet appeared. Sadly, my car was damaged in an accident caused by an inept driver. I was a passenger seeing it in slow motion but helpless. That was on Sept 14 last year. The car has been in a body shop ever since, with multiple parts requiring multiple replacements because of Tesla errors and delays. they cannot get it right and even are very difficult to reach, Executive Escalation on this subject now ignored.

To my knowledge six reservations have not yet been made into orders because of this. One of those just bought an I-Pace instead. I remain a bull, but I am convinced that sad stories such as this are causing orders to be deferred and reservations cancelled. I remain hopeful that Tesla will fix this. If Tesla repeats this stupidity in Germany and/or Japan it might just be terminal. Right now I am a very worried bull. All of Tesla must know, but no actions seems to be being taken to fix the delivery/service/parts messes.

This is why Tesla should go private. Too much focus on appeasing Wall Street with silly numbers that don’t matter in the long term. I have a love/hate relationship with Tesla’s support. Waiting almost a year for a refund on my reg fees (I transferred my plates)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I love this post but hate the facts. When I switched from my beloved P85D I was dismayed by the shoddy delivery mess. The car itself was amazing, although the badging has not yet appeared. Sadly, my car was damaged in an accident caused by an inept driver. I was a passenger seeing it in slow motion but helpless. That was on Sept 14 last year. The car has been in a body shop ever since, with multiple parts requiring multiple replacements because of Tesla errors and delays. they cannot get it right and even are very difficult to reach, Executive Escalation on this subject now ignored.

To my knowledge six reservations have not yet been made into orders because of this. One of those just bought an I-Pace instead. I remain a bull, but I am convinced that sad stories such as this are causing orders to be deferred and reservations cancelled. I remain hopeful that Tesla will fix this. If Tesla repeats this stupidity in Germany and/or Japan it might just be terminal. Right now I am a very worried bull. All of Tesla must know, but no actions seems to be being taken to fix the delivery/service/parts messes.

Maybe Lathrop will provide the solution.

We still do not know what that huge warehouse under construction is for, but I’m willing to bet it is parts storage, so Tesla can store hundreds of thousands of parts and send them all over the country at a moment’s notice.

For Europe I think there will be Tilburg II, another big warehouse surrounded by mystery.

 

[EVNow]

That's in SoCal, ray getting the same in Norway, or Canada...

My lifetime efficiency is 230 Watts/Mile, in Seattle over 600 miles. Won't be surprised at all if its worse in areas of (real) cold & snow.

When I used to obsessively track my efficiency when I had Leaf - I used to get upto 5 miles/kWh or about 200 watts/mile in summer and down to 3 miles/kWh or 330 watts/mile in winter. There was a very clear correlation between average monthly temperature and efficiency.

I expect Model 3 to be better in colder weather than Leaf because of TMS.

ps : Found the data.

 

[anthonyj]

Bears next week

 

[DrKenneth]

don't be surprised to see a bunch of shorts coming on this forum tomorrow evening to keep the negative narrative going.. As for me - I doubled my holdings in TESLA on Friday and took advantage of a big sale.. lowering expenses while ramping production and moving up the s curve is bullish AF. Europe deliveries and China on track are also good signs.. Coming out after the close with earnings date much earlier is also bullish IMO.. Planning for a big ass up day tues.. Trade em well..

Here is a reference to prior big down days.. If history is a proxy - should see a 10%+ bounce Tuesday.
Investors betting against Tesla's stock have had 7 really good days. Here's what's behind them

We can circle back here after close on Tuesday and see how well this prediction plays out.. Always do your own due diligence and this is NOT AN ADVICE to do anything but watch out for the short nonsense and enjoy the circus..

Whenever the stock goes down there are always several people saying they bought stock because of "the sale". It was at this price literally 2 weeks ago. Why didn't you buy then? Or they countless times before the stock has been at this price or lower?

The company update was negative and q4/q1 guidances were down from what most people, especially here, expected. Not sure where the stock will go on Tuesday, but +10% is not happening unless new news comes out. Might be slightly positive, but there will be several analyst reports that will probably lower their targets, so I am fairly confident we will end the week lower than Fridays close.

 

[mongo]

Whenever the stock goes down there are always several people saying they bought stock because of "the sale". It was at this price literally 2 weeks ago. Why didn't you buy then? Or they countless times before the stock has been at this price or lower?

They probably did then too. Further, every week provides more discretionary income to invest. Perhaps people's transfers had not occured 2 weeks ago.

The company update was negative and q4/q1 guidances were down from what most people, especially here, expected. Not sure where the stock will go on Tuesday, but +10% is not happening unless new news comes out. Might be slightly positive, but there will be several analyst reports that will probably lower their targets, so I am fairly confident we will end the week lower than Fridays close.

Company update was rational, inline with average expectations, and showed positive (but difficult) steps toward sustained profitability. Price will continue to bounce like Happy Fun Ball.
Reporting week will be interesting.

 

[Curt Renz]

Today: Berkshire's lithium venture may supply U.S. automakers, including Tesla: FT

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Gas may get even cheaper if EV adoption increases, supply will increase and price goes down.

Free destination charging will not last as it hss a cost that must be paid by someone.

Solar is not free. The cost of the equipment most be included in that calculation.

If you check out the shorting oil, it's pretty obvious that there's a floor on gas prices, since there's a cost to extracting, refining, transporting, and delivering gasoline. So no, gasoline will never be cheaper than electricity (from now onwards) no matter the supply situation, except for the short time periods when it's dumped at a significant loss.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

US only because the gasoline is heavily subsided here. People buying Tesla's for gas savings is just funny

Not to counter your point about the gasoline subsidies, but I bought my Tesla partly with the gas savings, because I have a long enough commute (plan to keep it past 200k miles) to make it cheaper than a Toyota Camry.

 

[EVNow]

The company update was negative and q4/q1 guidances were down from what most people, especially here, expected. Not sure where the stock will go on Tuesday, but +10% is not happening unless new news comes out. Might be slightly positive, but there will be several analyst reports that will probably lower their targets, so I am fairly confident we will end the week lower than Fridays close.

The Fidelity newsfeed is very negative right now. I was also thinking on Tuesday we'll see a quick gap up - but not so sure any more.

After the last 5 announcements of the date of ER - 2 times the SP went up - last time by 12%, but under unique circumstances and another time by 1.5%. 3 times the SP went down - 1.1%, 1.9% and 3.3%. I don't know what the SP will be next Friday, but, I'd be very surprised if we are not back around $350 on 30th before ER.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Gas may get even cheaper if EV adoption increases, supply will increase and price goes down.

I'm crying over here :'D stop it!

 

[anthonyj]

Whenever the stock goes down there are always several people saying they bought stock because of "the sale". It was at this price literally 2 weeks ago. Why didn't you buy then? Or they countless times before the stock has been at this price or lower?

The company update was negative and q4/q1 guidances were down from what most people, especially here, expected. Not sure where the stock will go on Tuesday, but +10% is not happening unless new news comes out. Might be slightly positive, but there will be several analyst reports that will probably lower their targets, so I am fairly confident we will end the week lower than Fridays close.

“This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.”

Musk didn’t need to include this information in his email to employees. He’s purposely setting expectations low. Hopefully we’ll have some luck to only aim for a tiny profit? He’s not lying, he’s bluffing. Look at his most recent retweet. Very telling.

We will probably test $280 next week, but he has something special up his sleeve, I’m certain

 

[JRP3]

Whenever the stock goes down there are always several people saying they bought stock because of "the sale". It was at this price literally 2 weeks ago. Why didn't you buy then? Or they countless times before the stock has been at this price or lower?

I did exactly that last week and at other times before, usually documented on the forums. Buy on relative dips and if it's trading shares sell when it reaches a certain level but always hold my core position for the long term.

 

[avoigt]

“This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.”

Musk didn’t need to include this information in his email to employees. He’s purposely setting expectations low. Hopefully we’ll have some luck to only aim for a tiny profit? He’s not lying, he’s bluffing. Look at his most recent retweet. Very telling.

We will probably test $280 next week, but he has something special up his sleeve, I’m certain

AI is better at bluffing than professional gamblers

 

[S3XY]

Probably? No -- Certainly. I mean, I can personally name dozens of sales in my area which didn't happen specifically because of the distance of the service center.


Here, Tesla could open a service center today, and simply has chosen not to because of management incompetence.

I had a mobile service tech come by a few weeks ago for an issue with my subwoofer. He mentioned that it takes time to get the parts he needs and, until recently, only had his truck to store them in. He wanted to use some space at GF2 so he could have more parts on hand so he talked to a few people there but was turned away and told that we're TE, we don't do autos. But he persisted, moved up the food chain, and finally convinced someone to allow it. This is a very small step in the right direction but it shows how low of a priority Service Centers have been. To me it's a no-brainer to open a small Service Center at GF2. If they're that concerned about the issue of separate divisions I'm sure they could figure out a fair chargeback for the space allocated.

 

[EVNow]

AI is better at bluffing than professional gamblers

AI is better at bluffing than professional gamblers

But, apparently doesn't know you shouldn't hold the cards so everyone can see

 

[EVNow]

Gas may get even cheaper if EV adoption increases, supply will increase and price goes down.

For gas price to go down (because of demand going down) we actually need the total # of gas cars to go down. Considering the pace at which China & India are selling cars to first time buyers, its going to be a long time before this happens, even with increased EV adoption.

 

[Krugerrand]

Gas may get even cheaper if EV adoption increases, supply will increase and price goes down.

Free destination charging will not last as it hss a cost that must be paid by someone.

Solar is not free. The cost of the equipment most be included in that calculation.

Strawman
Purposefully obtuse
Airplane over the head

Take your pick

 

[skitown]

For gas price to go down (because of demand going down) we actually need the total # of gas cars to go down. Considering the pace at which China & India are selling cars to first time buyers, its going to be a long time before this happens, even with increased EV adoption.

Also consider increased MPG of the fleet as older guzzlers drop out. If the world's fleet of ICE stays ~constant but MPG raises, then that also decreases demand in theory.

 

[lklundin]

If you check out the shorting oil, it's pretty obvious that there's a floor on gas prices, since there's a cost to extracting, refining, transporting, and delivering gasoline. So no, gasoline will never be cheaper than electricity (from now onwards) no matter the supply situation, except for the short time periods when it's dumped at a significant loss.

Especially because to produce 1 liter of gasoline a refinery uses about 1 kWh of electricity...