Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Not again in this thread. Please, just, no. If you want a recent thread on the topic, here's a random example:

2170s for the Model S soon [Speculation]

But for just a handful of the other threads going back to 2016(!), full of people adamant that a Model S/X conversion had to, and was certain to, happen imminently, and full of disagrees to anyone who suggested otherwise:

2170 in Model S soon?
When do you think the 2170 battery comes to MX and MS?
Inside EVs 2170 in S and X at end of year
Why Model S/X will not see 2170 cells any time soon.
New Batteries for Model S
Next generation 2170 cell battery packs

I get that you are on the side of not gonna happen, but really, argument ad historium?
What about threads saying the Roadster would/ would not be made?
It's 2019, not 2016. Perhaps conditions have changed? Panasonic switching manufacturing lines would impact the orphan production argument...

 

[Thekiwi]

Toyota and Panasonic are planning to set up a new battery JV in 2020, to be 51% owned by Toyota. Panasonic will transfer 5 battery production facilities from Japan & China into the JV. I presume this will all be prismatic batteries and will be focussed on hybrids in-line with Toyota's strategy. GF1 will not be transferred to the JV obviously, but it's not clear if the 18650 Suminoe Japan factory will be transferred - this could be possible if Panasonic is moving S/X battery production to GF1.

It looks like Panasonic is fully committing to Toyota and Tesla partnerships and I can't see capacity for them to produce batteries for any other company.

I think this could actually be positive for Tesla. This reduces Panasonic's capital requirements in the rest of its battery business and may free up capital to further expand GF1 and possibly build a new Tesla factory in China. On the other hand, this will also give Toyota closer access to Panasonic's battery supply chain, particularly Sumitomo (cathodes) and lithium suppliers, which are also critical to Tesla.

Toyota and Panasonic to build electric car batteries together

From article:

“The plan is to supply to Mazda Motor, a Toyota partner on electric car technology, as well as Toyota subsidiary Daihatsu Motor and Subaru. The joint venture will encourage Honda Motor, which uses Panasonic batteries in hybrid vehicles, to adopt the new cells.”

Translation: Japan Inc just shifted gears.

 

[KarenRei]

I get that you are on the side of not gonna happen, but really, argument ad historium?
What about threads saying the Roadster would/ would not be made?
It's 2019, not 2016. Perhaps conditions have changed? Panasonic switching manufacturing lines would impact the orphan production argument...

No, not "argument ad historium". Argument ad "Please for the love of god do not fill up this thread yet again with this topic."

 

[avoigt]

EU prices include VAT.



EU ranges are WLTP (or sometimes still, embarassingly, NEDC!), which is more optimistic than EPA combined.

(...)

To add to the point about Range and be overoptimistic.

This video below (sorry just German) explains the e-tron in a very balanced and fair test drive looking at innovation and comparing it mainly to Tesla.

The result about the range is that Audi did announce the e-Tron to drive 420 km with WLTP but in reality its just about 300 km which is 28% less than announced with big marketing in the media.

Audi claimed to be innovative leader and we know they fall short in that respect in most areas beside maybe the high charge rate between 10 - 80% although we have to see what that does to the battery. I am not yet convinced about their cooling system of the punch cells as well. Recuperation seems to be good though.

Assuming that VW has the same optimistic view on range than their daughter company Audi has and I do not have a reason to believe different than 300 km (186 miles) as per WLTP is in reality 214 km (132 miles) for their top model.

130 miles is just not enough taking into account different weather conditions, a weak charging infrastructure and lets not forget that here in German we can drive very fast on most parts of the Autobahn.

Lets hope VW learn from what Audi did to the reputation of the e-tron but looking at their behavior in the past I am very sceptic about this.

 

[jbcarioca]

It looks like Dalian is being sold into the Toyota JV. So I presume it's customers are already Toyota partners in China.

Actually, unless you have better information than they seem to have revealed, The new Panasonic/Toyota JV, patterned loosely around the Panasonic/Tesla GF-1 deal, will supply Toyota and their Japanese cohorts. The Dalian facility, according to Panasonic will: "...midst expectations of expanding demand for automotive lithium-ion batteries, Panasonic manufactures the high-capacity and high-safety prismatic-type batteries at this factory and ships them to the North American and Chinese markets. Shipments will be expanded in the future to reach more destinations, helping to drive the spread of eco-conscious vehicles."
Panasonic Factory in Dalian, China Begins Mass Production and Shipments of Automotive Lithium-ion Batteries | Headquarters News | Panasonic Newsroom Global

Panasonic is doing everything it can do to develop and maintain as many major BEV customers as it can, and continue with hybrids as well.
Clearly Panasonic needs to grow at least 100% pa to keep up with the encroaching Chinese suppliers and even CATL (as implausible as that seems to some people), not to mention LG, Samsung and the soon-to-appear European crowd. Thanks to the Tesla deal Panasonic grew very quickly and made huge strides in technology and execution. Thus, more JV are probable, with the Toyota deal just the first to be announced. Question: How quickly can Panasonic scale?

 

[Driver Dave]

People buying Tesla's for gas savings is just funny

Filling up at home with cheaper gas will never exist. (Home charging)
Destination free gas will never ever exist. (Destination free charging)
Generating your own free gas will never ever exist. (Solar)

So while superchargers may cost something now, the majority of your charge will still be very less than gas. Especially when gas prices go back up.

So yes, buying Teslas or any EV for gas savings is still very much a valid thing.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Actually, unless you have better information than they seem to have revealed, The new Panasonic/Toyota JV, patterned loosely around the Panasonic/Tesla GF-1 deal, will supply Toyota and their Japanese cohorts.

This deal looks a very different structure to GF1. Here the press suggests Panasonic is selling all of its non Tesla battery factories to a Toyota controlled company. All of the P&L from these factories should then be de-consolidated from Panasonic's accounts and Panasonic would then only receive cash from this JV if it paid dividends. The JV may also license some IP from the Panasonic parent, so Panasonic parent could also potentially receive a % of the JV's revenues.

If Panasonic put a value of $1bn on these 5 factories and IP (no idea of the real valuation, could be $500m-$2bn), then Toyota will have to transfer something of roughly equal value into the JV. This seems most likely to me to be cash. So on day one the JV may receive $1bn of factories from Panasonic and $1bn of cash from Toyota, which the JV will then spend on future capex. This means Panasonic will have cut its capex commitments in these factories by $1bn and then Panasonic will only have to contribute 49% of capital contributions to the JV for any investment over $1bn.

So it looks to me like this new structure will reduce Panasonic's battery capex commitments significantly. It could choose to redeploy this cash into Tesla factories, or building new cell factories in partnership with a new Auto manufacturer.

Of course there is a lot of speculation here, the information leaked to the press so far isn't very detailed and could be misleading.

 

[adaptabl]

Filling up at home with cheaper gas will never exist. (Home charging)
Destination free gas will never ever exist. (Destination free charging)
Generating your own free gas will never ever exist. (Solar)

So while superchargers may cost something now, the majority of your charge will still be very less than gas. Especially when gas prices go back up.

So yes, buying Teslas or any EV for gas savings is still very much a valid thing.

Gas may get even cheaper if EV adoption increases, supply will increase and price goes down.

Free destination charging will not last as it hss a cost that must be paid by someone.

Solar is not free. The cost of the equipment most be included in that calculation.

 

[dhrivnak]

Solar is not free. The cost of the equipment most be included in that calculation.

Very true but the $21,000 I paid for solar saves me $3000/year in electric and gasoline costs. I have had 6 trouble free years and I expect 25 more. Overall I think it is a great way to go. If not for you then for the next generation.

Driving on Sunshine

 

[JRP3]

He is also possibly a criminal, a fraudster, earning money (or satisfaction) through crime

Indeed

In a significant victory for investors, on September 20, 2004, Manhattan Federal Judge Richard M. Berman ruled that buyers of stock issued by Interspeed, a now-defunct corporation that developed internet DSL technology, could proceed with a class-action lawsuit against UBS Warburg LLC and former UBS Warburg Senior Telecommunications Analyst Anton Wahlman

Investors Win Victory Against UBS Warburg in Analyst Research Lawsuit

 

[Zaxxon]

That's in SoCal, ray getting the same in Norway, or Canada...

13k miles here, 225 lifetime average. Colorado, where it's been pretty cold lately and very hilly always.

In other news, the Glovis Captain is about 30 km from Panama. #keeponchuggin

 

[gene]

That's in SoCal, ray getting the same in Norway, or Canada...

My comment was in relation to the efficiency test in the Bjorn video which was done here in southern California.

 

[1101011]

...So it looks to me like this new structure will reduce Panasonic's battery capex commitments significantly. It could choose to redeploy this cash into Tesla factories, or building new cell factories in partnership with a new Auto manufacturer.

Or, if they immulate GM, give management huge bonuses/salaries which they can ride to retirement, leaving others to deal with the future.

 

[Driver Dave]

Gas may get even cheaper if EV adoption increases, supply will increase and price goes down.

Free destination charging will not last as it hss a cost that must be paid by someone.

Solar is not free. The cost of the equipment most be included in that calculation.

When EV adoption increases to the point where it affects demand of gas, many other market forces will come into play, many pushing down the cost of electricity right with it.

When charging becomes everywhere, in every parking lot, the cost of destination charging will spread out widely, the competition will drive prices down.

Solar is not free, but the cost of equipment will continue to go down to the point where it will just be something like a boiler. Just a given that it is part of the house.


The future of gas is fixed. Cost of pulling it out of the ground. Paying a premium to the cartels that own that ground. Refining, pumping, gas stations... All not changing.


The future of electricity is dynamic, with lots of competition and lots of room for growth.
The price today won't be the price tomorrow.

 

[jbcarioca]

This deal looks a very different structure to GF1...

Of course there is a lot of speculation here, the information leaked to the press so far isn't very detailed and could be misleading.

Definitely we are speculating, but it seems we both have some decent perspective on what is actually happening. Clearly I agree with almost everything you have said. The only exception is the relative analogy between the Tesla and Toyota deals. I still think there is a clear analogy, but...

In the Tesla deal Panasonic was the more substantial partner and had manufacturing expertise plus access to capital, even though they were themselves in a bit of a sad state at the time. As time has passed both have vastly improved their outlooks but...

Now Toyota is cash rich and future-poor. They've made a few decisions that have put them, including the Toyota cohorts, at exceedingly large disadavantage.
Panasonic is still cash poor but prospect rich. We can easily imagine this is Japan-Inc but it really is not. Panasonic is really the only true Japanese battery supplier that can scale and has solid experience at scale. Thus, Toyota shovels money, Panasonic expands and makes supply deals to serve Honda, some Chinese (names still evolving?) and potentially a number of others, including public utilities and commercial storage. That serves Japanese interests pretty well since they can continue to hamper LG and Samsung. They know that the Chinese are developing so quickly that they need to scale Tesla-style now!

The preceding paragraph is entirely conjecture on my part but that is the basis for me suggesting that the deal was patterned after the GF-1 deal, in terms of degree of cooperation and prospects, but clearly not in pure financial terms.

I hope that makes sense. My direct Toyota information is pretty weak and fairly low-level.

 

[juanmedina]

Filling up at home with cheaper gas will never exist. (Home charging)
Destination free gas will never ever exist. (Destination free charging)
Generating your own free gas will never ever exist. (Solar)

So while superchargers may cost something now, the majority of your charge will still be very less than gas. Especially when gas prices go back up.

So yes, buying Teslas or any EV for gas savings is still very much a valid thing.

Yeah I was trying to say that the main reason I bought my model wasn't because of gas saving. Their so much more to the car than that but is a nice perk to have on top. I have a free charger at work so I only charge my car at home if fly-out on vacation or something.

 

[avoigt]

Gas may get even cheaper if EV adoption increases, supply will increase and price goes down.

Free destination charging will not last as it hss a cost that must be paid by someone.

Solar is not free. The cost of the equipment most be included in that calculation.

I am not quite convinced about the demand price relation you mention.

If you have oversupply in a market where demand decreases but you still have the same cap ex than prices go up although demand is weak.

Let me give you an example: when water demand goes down in Germany prices for Water go up not down because the overall costs of the infrastructure needs to be covered from less consumers.

Sound strange I know but its the logic behind. In case you say water is not gas than you are right but the infrastructure to supply gas is similar.

So my prediction is for the long run when more and more EVs are sold and ICE cars are not only less bought but the amount of used ICE cars goes down as well at that stage gas prices will go up.

 

[elasalle]

I am not quite convinced about the demand price relation you mention.

If you have oversupply in a market where demand decreases but you still have the same cap ex than prices go up although demand is weak.

Let me give you an example: when water demand goes down in Germany prices for Water go up not down because the overall costs of the infrastructure needs to be covered from less consumers.

Sound strange I know but its the logic behind. In case you say water is not gas than you are right but the infrastructure to supply gas is similar.

So my prediction is for the long run when more and more EVs are sold and ICE cars are not only less bought but the amount of used ICE cars goes down as well at that stage gas prices will go up.

Also more Gas Stations will close, so will have to drive further to fill up gas ...

 

[elasalle]

Walter MacVane on Twitter

Glovis Captain appears to be scheduled to arrive in Belgium

on Feb 2nd

 

[Bobfitz1]

Odd but true, one of the most encouraging points for me was actually made by the BEAR! If they truly haven’t cut deeply into the reservation list despite good numbers in Q4 that’s significant. I’ve always been concerned about demand levels once the reservation backlog was exhausted.
Toyota would never survive on base level Corollas, clearly Ford wouldn’t have a prayer on the base level Focus! Why do these “experts” suddenly throw out all knowledge of how the auto industry actually functions and expect Tesla to survive on a black, non premium package, non EAP, aero wheel Model 3? That’s willful ignorance firmly in the realm of intellectual dishonesty.

Someone on TMC posted that more than half of M3 AWD and P sales were coming from new customers, not reservation holders.
If so, it's not clear why continuing U.S. demand for high margin versions should decline as steeply as it has. Word of mouth and test joy rides to lots of family and friends not following Tesla closely, was expected to spark and maintain or expand AWD and P sales.
I would not be shocked if this word of mouth advertising effect is being tamped down by potential customers also hearing about the abysmal customer experiences which are so widespread. I suspect many are told by owners the car is great, just hold off a year until the company gets it's service act together again.

I wish someone Elon would listen to could get it across that this situation needs immediate attention, not slow improvement. I've been embarrassed to hear details of the poor communications, etc, etc. from a good friend who bought her M3 this fall.