Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

End of 2018 I didn't expect to see sub-$300 TSLA prices ever again to be honest. That we are below $200 is crazy in several ways, but there we are.



True.



Your comments are so bipolar, sub-$100 is crazy TSLAQ talk even if we completely ignore absolutely every bullish argument about Tesla:

• volume is already crazy high since below $250,
• it has only been sustained due to the forced capitulation selling you mentioned, but also through another ten million shares sold short, which is not sustainable:
• many institutional shorts won't short into stocks with short interest above a couple of percentage points due to the short squeeze risk - let alone when 30% of the float is shorted ...,
• and the smarter shorts will cover to lock in gains once the seasonally weak sales in Q1 won't continue into Q2, or shortly before this becomes apparent.
• covering for shorts is easier at these price levels than at $350 price levels in December, because most of the shorts have profitable positions currently.

Your silly comment is also timed perfectly to be the first comment on a new TMC comment page, on a new trading day after a long weekend. These are the incidents where people here think you might be a careful short trolling us just below the threshold of being banned.

I’m just a frustrated long numbed to Tesla’s infinite drop. I also include a touch of sarcasm in some of my comments. I posted screenshots of my account many times. I can provide real-time proof to a mod if needed

 

[Electroman]

Norway is currently 70% ahead for the first two months and still some days left in May, I reckon they'll be close to double by the end of the week. In March they delivered 5.8k cars, so they could do half that amount in June and still hit 4-5k, so I'm thinking more like 7k.

Total WAG, of course, and depends how much they're winding down the wave.

How is Germany doing? For Europe, Germany is the key. If you do okay there, you got Europe in the bag.

 

[Tslynk67]

Holy batman!! Look at the like to dislike ratio and the comments!! So I thought it was worth pointing this out to her on twitter



EDIT: I am trying to guess who is this banned concern troll that replied to my tweet ( profile says "Banned by Tesla Investors Club").

therottenrook on Twitter

This video is just the biggest pile of BS/FUD/lies I've ever seen, it has to be watched to be believed. Absolutely everything she says is plain wrong or made up. Why do these people even get air time? Shame on her.

 

[sparcs]

More positive vibes about battery production coming from Sparks:

carsonight | 6 hours ago

"I talk to people who work on both sides, Tesla and Panasonic. I give as detailed information as possible; look at my back posts. I'm not going to tell you that so-and- from zone four said such-and-such. What I can tell you without compromising anybody I will share. What I can tell you right now is that when Musk said Tesla will likely beat the Q4 delivery numbers for the Model 3, he wasn't kidding. I can also tell you that much of the production will be the SR Model 3."​

Note that quarterly Model 3 production was 61,394 in 2018Q4, and 62,950 in 2019Q1.

Cheers!

IIRC, the info he provided for Q1 about battery pack production was pretty far off. Not saying he's wrong, but I'm not sure I put value into his statements anymore.

 

[Tslynk67]

Had em on ignore.. just had to push back some FUD. Now my post looks like I am talking to myself

Seems to be the same one that I have ignored given the ghost posts.

 

[electracity]

Encourage everyone to watch this video a couple of times and reflect on what this says about Tesla in its current state
Tesletter on Twitter

Only if you don't know Apple's market cap in 1997

 

[Tslynk67]

So, it turns out Lex Fridman is a badass

Lex Fridman on Twitter

He's a taekwondo black-belt, I believe...

 

[Tslynk67]

This was labeled a "debate"? Really?

More like a mass debate...

 

[Artful Dodger]

IIRC, the info he provided for Q1 about battery pack production was pretty far off. Not saying he's wrong, but I'm not sure I put value into his statements anymore.

Never place full confidence in single-sourced information. However there have been other Investors commenting here on TMC that battery production achieved a step change as of late March 2019.

Further, we know that the SR+ battery pack is shipping in quantity, which allows higher total Model 3 production even if Panasonic battery cell production remains constant.

We have about 5 weeks to go until we get P&D numbers from Tesla, so we'll know soon enough.

Cheers!

 

[MP3Mike]

Actually, that makes a lot of sense because those kind of active suspensions are based on Citroën ID/DS technology. In the ID/DS a oil/pneumatic sphere created the active suspension. In Tesla's suspension, the ultra capacitor performs a similar function. I don't know if it's different enough for Tesla to have to pay royalties the way Mercedes did for their version.

But the Tesla suspension isn't active it is adaptive. Is there a reason Tesla doesn't use the word active?

Fully Adaptive Suspension
We’ve also upgraded our air suspension system for Model S and Model X with fully-adaptive damping, giving it an ultra-cushioned feel when cruising on the highway or using Autopilot, and a responsive, exhilarating confidence during dynamic driving. Unlike other manufacturers, our suspension software is developed completely in-house, using a predictive model to anticipate how the damping will need to be adjusted based on the road, speed, and other vehicle and driver inputs. The system constantly adapts by sensing the road and adjusting for driver behavior, automatically softening for more pronounced road inputs and firming for aggressive driving. We’ve also improved the leveling of the system while cruising, keeping the car low to optimize aerodynamic drag. As with all of Tesla’s in-house software, the adaptive suspension can receive over-the-air updates, allowing us to enable all Model S and Model X customers to have the most advanced suspension technology at all times.

 

[VValleyEV]

@ZachShahan Excellent article. A small pedantic correction.

if we had the same monthly rate of financial loss in future months as we had in Q1, the several billion dollars we currently have would only last 10 months.

Should actually be..

if we had the same monthly rate of financial loss in future months as we had in Q1, the several billion dollars we have recently raised would only last 10 months.

Link to article? Been looking around for it. Upside is that I have read some other interesting articles.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Link to article? Been looking around for it. Upside is that I have read some other interesting articles.

Some Thoughts On Elon Musk’s Emails To Employees — & The Media + Wall Street’s Response

 

[anon]

Musk endorsed the article on Twitter (replied "yup" to it).

 

[FS_FRA]

How is Germany doing? For Europe, Germany is the key. If you do okay there, you got Europe in the bag.

I disagree (unfortunately) as a German.... The ICE lobby here is too hardcore for there to be meaningful policy pushing sale of higher price-range BEVs. Ignore the medially effective initiatives from VW and Daimler! They are as we all know here 3-5 years out, and general EV infrastructure as well as acceptance will follow their pace

Add to that pretty high cost of electricity (around €0.30 / kWh = $0.34 / kWh) with practically no ToU or similar options, and high-density housing situations (meaning fewer single family homes with charge-at-home options....) the barrier to entry is fairly high.

One should rather say: once you are doing OK in Germany, you will for sure have done great in Europe.

 

[Joe F]

Did Tesla ever issue a statement saying it was fake? I remember they were sending investigators out there, but Phil LeBeau backed off the fake claims iirc

Is anyone concerned that people believe anything CNBC says concerning Tesla?

 

[Electroman]

Is anyone concerned that people believe anything CNBC says concerning Tesla?

Except Phil LeBeau. He has merit.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Tesla's China-made Model 3 may be priced in $43,400-$50,700 range: Bloomberg

 

[Fact Checking]

It will not be cheaper IMO. Which is good.

I.e. similar as the $40k U.S. SR+ price, converted to ~275k-300k Yuan, right? That's my guess too.

 

[EVMeister]

I.e. similar as the $40k U.S. SR+ price, converted to ~275k-300k Yuan, right? That's my guess too.

But 300K - 350K Yuan (>$43,400) according to "people familiar with the matter" and "Bloomberg said citing a source."

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I.e. similar as the $40k U.S. SR+ price, converted to ~275k-300k Yuan, right? That's my guess too.

One aspect I would like to add: if eligible for subsidies, pricing could potentially be a little higher, which I think it's completely acceptable, but many people will have to be educated.

When subsidies fades out in 2020, there could be a small price drop.