Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Doggydogworld]

But the Tesla suspension isn't active it is adaptive. Is there a reason Tesla doesn't use the word active?

Both name and description argue against it being active. And even if it were active, I don't see any reason to use an ultracap. Truly active suspension could overwhelm a regular 12v battery. That's why Maxwell markets their ultracaps to ICE carmakers as the best energy storage option for active suspension. But the power levels are nothing compared to accelerating and regeneratively braking a 2+ ton car. Tesla's big batteries can handle those kind of loads in their sleep.

 

[mickificki]

GREEN!

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Interesting article on a potential looming short squeeze:

Tesla Stock Could Punish Complacent Short Sellers

 

[mrmage]

Bought another batch of 2024 convertibles at $89, with an effective yield of 4.5%.

 

[Hock1]

Bought another batch of 2024 convertibles at $89, with an effective yield of 4.5%.

Could you give CUSIP (again). TIA

 

[Doggydogworld]

More positive vibes about battery production coming from Sparks:

carsonight | 6 hours ago

"I talk to people who work on both sides, Tesla and Panasonic. I give as detailed information as possible; look at my back posts. I'm not going to tell you that so-and- from zone four said such-and-such. What I can tell you without compromising anybody I will share. What I can tell you right now is that when Musk said Tesla will likely beat the Q4 delivery numbers for the Model 3, he wasn't kidding. I can also tell you that much of the production will be the SR Model 3."​

Note that quarterly Model 3 production was 61,394 in 2018Q4, and 62,950 in 2019Q1.

Cheers!

I like Carson and consider him an honest broker of info he gets from GF workers. That said, factory floor info is often inaccurate. Carson was extremely confident Tesla made ~80k Model 3s in Q1. Since mid-November he reported GF was consistently making 6k packs per week. His info was just way, way off. That doesn't mean he's getting bad info again this time around, it just means we need to use more grains of salt than normal.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

I like Carson and consider him an honest broker of info he gets from GF workers. That said, factory floor info is often inaccurate. Carson was extremely confident Tesla made ~80k Model 3s in Q1. Since mid-November he reported GF was consistently making 6k packs per week. His info was just way, way off. That doesn't mean he's getting bad info again this time around, it just means we need to use more grains of salt than normal.

Which info was "way way" off? The GF info or the ~80k Model 3's in Q1? I am sure I am missing something very obvious, but given the delivery numbers plus the 'in transit' numbers around the world, ~80k wasn't absurdly off, was it?

 

[dww12]

Tesla is likely going to sell Model 3 SP+ with AP in the rumping up phase. that's $45,900 in US now and translates to 317K @ 6.9 USD/CNY. Bloomberg price range is very likely initially, but price will need to drop sharply to satisfy >500k/year demand.

How could the price possibly be that high? GF3 was suppose to be 1/3 the cost of GF and they will have China labor. Shouldn’t the SR be in the high 20s to low 30s? Also who wants to bet when they release the price thaey start taking pre orders.

 

[UncaNed]

Same here. I'm starting to see some numbers here in NE Wisconsin.

TESLA VISIBILITY makes a big difference.

I favor the busiest times for shopping, banking, and other local trips so as many people as possible see my Tesla. I linger with the Falcon Wing Doors up after opening them from afar to get the maximum attention and interaction where I get to mention that charging takes only 5 seconds a day with power from my roof, that the same car ordered today now gets over 10% better mileage for the same price with the same battery... amazing over the air updates... I never had an adverse interaction yet.

I let a couple friends drive my Tesla Sunday, which they didn't really expect me to do. I've yet to make a verifiable sale, BUT they won't be able to keep their mouths shut telling their friends good things about Tesla whenever the subject comes up.

Please let's ALL of us do this whenever we can so more people see Teslas around, get curious, and do a little research.

 

[sundaymorning]

I really feel that this time, it's not about Wall St playing both sides for volatility and thus to make more money. The stock is so far detached from reality when it comes to valuing the company that to me at least, there's a lot more going on. How drastic this drop has been and the volume levels for the month of May tell me that this is a last ditch attempt to throw everything at the stock to damage Tesla's brand and credibility among buyers. It won't work......as we're seeing demand for the 3 continues to be strong. But those that are against Tesla and want it to fail are very aware of what's coming at the end of this year. It's becoming increasingly more realistic that we are at 1.5-2/week for Giga 3 production by the end of Q4. Given Chinese manufacturing, I wouldn't be surprised to see that volume double to 4k/week in Q1 2020.

The more FUD I hear the more hardcore of a fan I become. I keep buying not only more stocks, but also more Tesla cars & merchandise. GF3 is almost up and running, so you’re right, it’s only a matter of time. We have the money.

 

[mrmage]

Could you give CUSIP (again). TIA

Sure:
88160RAG6
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/3b133ba5-38b6-47ea-938a-fe483897d2b4

 

[Tslynk67]

Interesting article on a potential looming short squeeze:

Tesla Stock Could Punish Complacent Short Sellers

Except for this sentence "There's little argument that Tesla faces major survival challenges in the coming months"

 

[Pras]

I like Carson and consider him an honest broker of info he gets from GF workers. That said, factory floor info is often inaccurate. Carson was extremely confident Tesla made ~80k Model 3s in Q1. Since mid-November he reported GF was consistently making 6k packs per week. His info was just way, way off. That doesn't mean he's getting bad info again this time around, it just means we need to use more grains of salt than normal.

That is why one should use multiple data sources and confirm if they are consistent.

Q1: inconsistencies that were ignored in bullish forecast provided by carsonight or Bloomberg tracker or the EU delivery reports
- TMC model3 tracker showed abysmally low order volumes
- model S and X deliveries in EU was abysmally low, but people kept forecasting 20k deliveries


For Q2 the above inconsistencies are no longer there. Plus and a big plus is the direct email from Elon. Lastly the inventory volume for model 3 is very low. So all in all Q2 has many consistent data points which should add confidence.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Except for this sentence "There's little argument that Tesla faces major survival challenges in the coming months"

You're kidding? That sentence doesn't mean there is a chance they will go bust in the next few months, my inference is that it means very important decisions (that Tesla needs to make), manufacturing and delivery as well as macro economic factors in the near term, will have an outsized effect on Tesla in the long term.

I really do get a sense of dread whenever TSLA watchers are utterly dismissive of any caution or outline of the challenges the company faces. It undermines anything else you express.

 

[ZachShahan]

Another major benefit is that moving TSLA to another exchange may have the effect of triggering a recall of shorted shares. That alone would trigger a min 40% upward swing in the SP, and that's assuming that genuine shareholders would actually be willing to sell.

I know I won't.

Cheers!

I'd be happy to publish something on CleanTechnica about this idea if anyone wants to write it up.

 

[SO16]

You're kidding? That sentence doesn't mean there is a chance they will go bust in the next few months, my inference is that it means very important decisions (that Tesla needs to make), manufacturing and delivery as well as macro economic factors in the near term, will have an outsized effect on Tesla in the long term.

I really do get a sense of dread whenever TSLA watchers are utterly dismissive of any caution or outline of the challenges the company faces. It undermines anything else you express.

Because that sentence implies that Tesla is close to death. Nothing wrong with having “major challenges”. But “major survival challenges”?

 

[NicoV]

Norway is currently 70% ahead for the first two months and still some days left in May, I reckon they'll be close to double by the end of the week. In March they delivered 5.8k cars, so they could do half that amount in June and still hit 4-5k, so I'm thinking more like 7k.

Total WAG, of course, and depends how much they're winding down the wave.

Tesla Ghent has begun it’s end of quarter delivery push: they have again moved every demo model out of the showroom to make place for cars to be delivered to customers, just as they did previous end-of-quarter (according to an FB post with pictures of the showroom). With the difference being that they start a couple of weeks earlier and already have a lot of cars present for delivery.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm still baffled by the demand problem thesis. Steady sales in existing markets, while reaching new markets, for cars with no real competition anywhere on the horizon, with constantly increasing performance and features and with a rabidly loyal customer base and powerful brand recognition and prestige.

ok.

You're kidding? That sentence doesn't mean there is a chance they will go bust in the next few months, my inference is that it means very important decisions (that Tesla needs to make), manufacturing and delivery as well as macro economic factors in the near term, will have an outsized effect on Tesla in the long term.

I really do get a sense of dread whenever TSLA watchers are utterly dismissive of any caution or outline of the challenges the company faces. It undermines anything else you express.

"Survival challenge" means that if they don't meet the challenge they will not survive. In a corporate sense that means bankruptcy etc.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

I'm still baffled by the demand problem thesis. Steady sales in existing markets, while reaching new markets, for cars with no real competition anywhere on the horizon, with constantly increasing performance and features and with a rabidly loyal customer base and powerful brand recognition and prestige.

ok.

"Survival challenge" means that if they don't meet the challenge they will not survive. In a corporate sense that means bankruptcy etc.

And that's true, no one except fanboys are arguing about that, even Musk. It doesn't mean they're passing judgement on the likelihood of this occurring - it didn't pass judgment at all.

 

[VValleyEV]

Interesting article on a potential looming short squeeze:

Tesla Stock Could Punish Complacent Short Sellers

Maddening excerpt:
“There's little argument that Tesla faces major survival challenges in the coming months, but downtrends rarely move in a straight line ...”

So their thesis seems to be not that the stock will rebound because the long-term financials are good, but that they will rebound for a short period before tanking permanently.

What in blazes are these “major survival challenges” for a company with solid growth and dominance in a massively expanding market, holding cash reserves plus a new cash infusion to support maximum growth? Sure Q1 was a quarterly numbers reporting disaster, but I thought that investment professionals were supposed to look beyond the headlines , maybe to find that the Q1 numbers were not indicative of any change in the long-term story.

Instead we get the cryptic:

“... long-term relative strength has dropped into the most extreme oversold technical reading in the stock's public history“.

BUT WAIT, if the stock is “oversold” that means it is trading below the company’s fundamental value. So the “long-term relative strength” they are referring to is presumably the relative strength of long-term investors vs short sellers, not the actual “long-term strenght” of the company. Probably lots of folks will read “oversold” to mean something like “over-hyped” and sold above rather than below the real value, because they won’t even follow the link provided on the site.

So maybe a translation of that cryptic phrase is “short seller attack levels have hit new highs against to long-term investors”.

Sorry for the rant.