J
jbcarioca
Guest
If this is a serious question it's an interesting topic. Buggy manufacturing was nearly atomistic in that almost all of it was local, with little scope for industrial scale until mass production techniques were applied to the industry. That was even true of automobile production at the beginning until mass production techniques were applied with completely interchangeable parts, the assembly line and associated vertical integration. All of that is quite well documented from an English and US perspective although German development was nearly contemporaneous.I wonder if the buggy makers fought this hard and this dirty when the first of the horseless carriages started to pop up?
From the American system to mass production, 1800-1932: the development of manufacturing technology in the United States
Typical of most buggy makers is this one, one fo the largest and most aggressive of the time:
http://www.unioncountyhistoricalsociety.org/OnceUpon/Article8.pdf
Most of the early successful auto makers had their origin as blacksmith shops with teh most famous example being Studebaker:
The Studebaker History - The Studebaker National Museum
Frankly, there really is little direct analogy for the present situation of Tesla. Possibly we might find some reference in the history of Daimler Benz and Rolls Royce, both of which began as quite elite vehicles later influenced by the onslaught of cheap ubiquitous Ford. There really is not even much analogy there.
If I see this correctly the transition happening today is actually the transformation of seven distinct industrial groupings:
1. Traditional motor vehicle manufacturers;
2. Traditional motor vehicle distribution,
3. sales,
4. and service (three distinct categories so divided here);
5. Oil and Gas producers;
6. Oil refiners;
7. Public utilities.
Assuming I am correct, we can easily understand that the present situation for Tesla actually has only four remotely relevant analogies;
First, the advent of cellular telephony,
Second, the advent of the internet,
Third, the advent of smartphones,
Fourth, the advent of internet retailing,
Each of those four decimated entire industries before the legacy participants even began to understand what happened, thus,
First, AT&T, the 'Bells' and global telephony champions have radically transformed and/or ceased to exist as they were,
Second, the internet itself seemed obscure until people discovered what it could do,
Third, smartphones actually destroyed Kodak, fax machines and photocopiers before they even noticed,
Fourth, we still as seeing the world of retailing the consequences of their inability to adapt.
So, when electric cars suddenly worked, became attractive and desirable what happened? Suddenly people like us bought Tesla, decimating a large part of high end car sales (following is for weak reference [mom and pop data collection is not my wont, but..] because this is strictly early adopter reference). In my specific case, between 2009 and 2014 I personally bought 6 cars in luxury price points. Once I bought my first Tesla in 2014 I Have bought/ordered four cars, all Tesla. A number of people I know have similarly ceased ICE purchases. What we all seem to forget is how fundamentally teh Gross margins and sales of six huge industries are threatened by Tesla and emerging BEV's, accentuated by the geopolitical impact of China as the largest single producer, largest single consumer and nearly the only major processor of rare earths.
When we rant about FUD we need to understand that Tesla symbolically and financially is threatening the world economic order.
Finally when we also observe that SpaceX has singlehandedly decimated the entire spacecraft business with Boeing (THE US aerospace champion) losing, with those infuriating 60 Starlink objects threatening the telecomms giants again, why would all those companies be other than panick-striken?
If the chief protagonist is a defiantly wierd, devoutly unconventional and impatient fellow why not blame him for mental instability?
Lest we forget, who else has unprecedented excellent relationships with Chinese so the build an instant factory and let Tesla own it 100%?
OK, things are strange right now. I am doubling down on TSLA right now, buying all the new shares I can. No leverage, because I hope I am not a fool, but I have no clue about timing for recovery. This is more like AMZN, INTC and AAPL years ago than like anybody else. Crises we will have. Have confidence!!