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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I wonder if the buggy makers fought this hard and this dirty when the first of the horseless carriages started to pop up?
If this is a serious question it's an interesting topic. Buggy manufacturing was nearly atomistic in that almost all of it was local, with little scope for industrial scale until mass production techniques were applied to the industry. That was even true of automobile production at the beginning until mass production techniques were applied with completely interchangeable parts, the assembly line and associated vertical integration. All of that is quite well documented from an English and US perspective although German development was nearly contemporaneous.
From the American system to mass production, 1800-1932: the development of manufacturing technology in the United States

Typical of most buggy makers is this one, one fo the largest and most aggressive of the time:
http://www.unioncountyhistoricalsociety.org/OnceUpon/Article8.pdf

Most of the early successful auto makers had their origin as blacksmith shops with teh most famous example being Studebaker:
The Studebaker History - The Studebaker National Museum

Frankly, there really is little direct analogy for the present situation of Tesla. Possibly we might find some reference in the history of Daimler Benz and Rolls Royce, both of which began as quite elite vehicles later influenced by the onslaught of cheap ubiquitous Ford. There really is not even much analogy there.

If I see this correctly the transition happening today is actually the transformation of seven distinct industrial groupings:
1. Traditional motor vehicle manufacturers;
2. Traditional motor vehicle distribution,
3. sales,
4. and service (three distinct categories so divided here);
5. Oil and Gas producers;
6. Oil refiners;
7. Public utilities.

Assuming I am correct, we can easily understand that the present situation for Tesla actually has only four remotely relevant analogies;
First, the advent of cellular telephony,
Second, the advent of the internet,
Third, the advent of smartphones,
Fourth, the advent of internet retailing,
Each of those four decimated entire industries before the legacy participants even began to understand what happened, thus,
First, AT&T, the 'Bells' and global telephony champions have radically transformed and/or ceased to exist as they were,
Second, the internet itself seemed obscure until people discovered what it could do,
Third, smartphones actually destroyed Kodak, fax machines and photocopiers before they even noticed,
Fourth, we still as seeing the world of retailing the consequences of their inability to adapt.

So, when electric cars suddenly worked, became attractive and desirable what happened? Suddenly people like us bought Tesla, decimating a large part of high end car sales (following is for weak reference [mom and pop data collection is not my wont, but..] because this is strictly early adopter reference). In my specific case, between 2009 and 2014 I personally bought 6 cars in luxury price points. Once I bought my first Tesla in 2014 I Have bought/ordered four cars, all Tesla. A number of people I know have similarly ceased ICE purchases. What we all seem to forget is how fundamentally teh Gross margins and sales of six huge industries are threatened by Tesla and emerging BEV's, accentuated by the geopolitical impact of China as the largest single producer, largest single consumer and nearly the only major processor of rare earths.

When we rant about FUD we need to understand that Tesla symbolically and financially is threatening the world economic order.

Finally when we also observe that SpaceX has singlehandedly decimated the entire spacecraft business with Boeing (THE US aerospace champion) losing, with those infuriating 60 Starlink objects threatening the telecomms giants again, why would all those companies be other than panick-striken?

If the chief protagonist is a defiantly wierd, devoutly unconventional and impatient fellow why not blame him for mental instability?

Lest we forget, who else has unprecedented excellent relationships with Chinese so the build an instant factory and let Tesla own it 100%?

OK, things are strange right now. I am doubling down on TSLA right now, buying all the new shares I can. No leverage, because I hope I am not a fool, but I have no clue about timing for recovery. This is more like AMZN, INTC and AAPL years ago than like anybody else. Crises we will have. Have confidence!!
 
I've noticed something this past week in NE Wisconsin and it has surprised me. We appear to be crossing a tipping point here in NE Wisconsin for demand for Tesla vehicles. Keep in mind this is not California. It is far from it. We don't have a Tesla store since they are banned in Wisconsin. We also don't have a state incentive for buying an EV. On most days driving around, I see no other Teslas. Occasionally, I'll see 1. If I see 2, it's a very unusual day. I'm guessing Californians can't even imagine this. Over the last 3 years, I have had only a few people express interest in getting a Tesla. I have had a few fans of Tesla ask me questions about my car, but there have been just 2 or 3 people interested in buying one. That is now changing rapidly. Over just the past few weeks, I have given 2 test drives to people interested in buying, found out someone I know just bought a model 3, another person I know is going to buy a model 3, and at gymnastics for my daughter, I overheard a stranger saying they recently placed an order for a model Y. This is in Appleton, Wisconsin! Demand is definitely not softening here in the upper midwest. On the contrary, it's increasing dramatically.
 
E775895D-2374-45E3-A2AE-DD0C00E582F7.png
 
Tesla is giving zero dollars for advertising and the media that makes most of their money in car ads, are subtly threatening that if you don't spend money on us, then we will write bad things about you.

Look at here: When sales are actually increasing in spite of the loss of federal credit , CNN lies that sales has crashed, competition will kill Tesla. yada yada. And again last week there was a false report from WSJ that Musk made $2.3B, equivalent of next 10 CEOs combined received. The truth is Musk made $0.

So now a days, instead of just exaggerating and only highlighting negative stuff, the media has started outright lying. The message is clear from media:

If you don't bribe us with Ads, we will spread negative fake news about Tesla.



Tesla has never needed to advertise, but that might have to change - CNN

"Automakers and their dealers spent an estimated $9.3 billion on advertising in 2018, according to analysis by Kantar Media. They typically made money back on that investment, and they would be at a competitive disadvantage if they did not advertise when their competitors were spending big. Wall Street's love affair with Tesla is over

"Advertising does pay. Good advertising pays better. Great advertising pays best of all," said Ed Williams, vice president of the insights division at Kantar.

"The advantage is you are going to generate additional awareness." Tesla did offer its customers the chance to suggest their own advertisements two years ago when it sponsored a "Project Loveday" contest. The amateur ads that came in were clever, funny, well-produced and fairly effective sales pitches for its cars. They showed some of the advantages that a Tesla has over a gasoline powered car. But Tesla never bought any time to distribute them widely. It simply posted them on its website
 

How anyone can short this company is beyond me....so frustrating! Great succinct video showing what Tesla is and why a strong Tesla is good for America!
This really is a great video and promotes Tesla as more patriotic than any other automaker. I have shared this on Facebook and a couple of pickup truck forums. Please, if others here can share this on any forums that bring in a new audience would be great.
 
I've noticed something this past week in NE Wisconsin and it has surprised me. We appear to be crossing a tipping point here in NE Wisconsin for demand for Tesla vehicles. Keep in mind this is not California. It is far from it. We don't have a Tesla store since they are banned in Wisconsin. We also don't have a state incentive for buying an EV. On most days driving around, I see no other Teslas. Occasionally, I'll see 1. If I see 2, it's a very unusual day. I'm guessing Californians can't even imagine this. Over the last 3 years, I have had only a few people express interest in getting a Tesla. I have had a few fans of Tesla ask me questions about my car, but there have been just 2 or 3 people interested in buying one. That is now changing rapidly. Over just the past few weeks, I have given 2 test drives to people interested in buying, found out someone I know just bought a model 3, another person I know is going to buy a model 3, and at gymnastics for my daughter, I overheard a stranger saying they recently placed an order for a model Y. This is in Appleton, Wisconsin! Demand is definitely not softening here in the upper midwest. On the contrary, it's increasing dramatically.

My experience too in non California USA. Idaho panhandle...
 

How anyone can short this company is beyond me....so frustrating! Great succinct video showing what Tesla is and why a strong Tesla is good for America!

Tesla is disliked partially because its advertising is based largely on insider core fanboys. And Elon making crazy pronouncements that are not happening, like auto collision repairs in 1 hr.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/20...hooting-for-collision-repairs-within-an-hour/

Instead of calling BS, we cheer this nonsense (like Robo taxi), but my normal friends roll their eyes and think Tesla is far-fetched and not for them. Time to switch gears and take Tesla to the mainstream.

This guy's video is awesome, highlights the factual advertising points Tesla needs to make. Maybe create a lovable America First spokesman character to teach people about technology and EVs? Something like BMW showing this Mini towing a Boeing 777 to really highlight the strengths of electric cars.

BMW releases video of Mini all-electric towing a 150-ton Boeing 777 - Electrek
 
<snip>
So, when electric cars suddenly worked, became attractive and desirable what happened? Suddenly people like us bought Tesla, decimating a large part of high end car sales (following is for weak reference [mom and pop data collection is not my wont, but..] because this is strictly early adopter reference). In my specific case, between 2009 and 2014 I personally bought 6 cars in luxury price points. Once I bought my first Tesla in 2014 I Have bought/ordered four cars, all Tesla. A number of people I know have similarly ceased ICE purchases. What we all seem to forget is how fundamentally teh Gross margins and sales of six huge industries are threatened by Tesla and emerging BEV's, accentuated by the geopolitical impact of China as the largest single producer, largest single consumer and nearly the only major processor of rare earths.

When we rant about FUD we need to understand that Tesla symbolically and financially is threatening the world economic order.

Finally when we also observe that SpaceX has singlehandedly decimated the entire spacecraft business with Boeing (THE US aerospace champion) losing, with those infuriating 60 Starlink objects threatening the telecomms giants again, why would all those companies be other than panick-striken?

If the chief protagonist is a defiantly wierd, devoutly unconventional and impatient fellow why not blame him for mental instability?

Lest we forget, who else has unprecedented excellent relationships with Chinese so the build an instant factory and let Tesla own it 100%?

OK, things are strange right now. I am doubling down on TSLA right now, buying all the new shares I can. No leverage, because I hope I am not a fool, but I have no clue about timing for recovery. This is more like AMZN, INTC and AAPL years ago than like anybody else. Crises we will have. Have confidence!!

When put to word as you’ve done, it’s mind boggling what is coming like a freight train. I do believe you’re right. I’ve no doubt.

I hope to live long enough to see the whole transformation of this planet that’s been set in motion and at least a solid start on the transformation on the next planet.
 
of course Tesla needs to advertise. the benefits are myriad and non-obvious. people on this thread who are like "i don't pay attention to commercials" are completely and utterly missing the point.

I think Tesla should just do a crowd funded (with special edition hats or something) Superbowl ad every year.
 
of course Tesla needs to advertise. the benefits are myriad and non-obvious. people on this thread who are like "i don't pay attention to commercials" are completely and utterly missing the point.
Does Tesla need to drum up extra business now? Can they handle the potential added volume which successful advertising is supposed to bring? Until the answer to both these questions is "yes" then Tesla doesn't need to advertise. In fact it would be a terrible idea.
 
Does Tesla need to drum up extra business now? Can they handle the potential added volume which successful advertising is supposed to bring? Until the answer to both these questions is "yes" then Tesla doesn't need to advertise. In fact it would be a terrible idea.
Yes agree. The most efficient is to match demand to production, too much or either is bad. That is what Tesla does: the changes in price etc are designed to match demand to production.
 
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Does Tesla need to drum up extra business now? Can they handle the potential added volume which successful advertising is supposed to bring? Until the answer to both these questions is "yes" then Tesla doesn't need to advertise. In fact it would be a terrible idea.

They should advertise a few months before they have anticipate production>demand. It takes time for people to see the ad, research, test drive, create PowerPoint presentation to convince the spouse, secure funds, and order.
 
Does Tesla need to drum up extra business now? Can they handle the potential added volume which successful advertising is supposed to bring? Until the answer to both these questions is "yes" then Tesla doesn't need to advertise. In fact it would be a terrible idea.

Is Tesla selling every Model S/X it can ?

Was it a mistake to take 400K Model 3 preorders ?

Is creating pent-up demand really a problem to avoid ?
 
Tesla's CAGR for the past 3 years is ~75% and for the last 5 years is ~60%.

It is -- by far -- the fastest growing large company in the U.S.

The secret to generating demand to fuel record-setting growth has been innovation that creates exceptional products that people want to buy and that generate buzz on their own.

The ROI of continuing to invest in innovation is much higher than spending $ on advertising. Resources are limited (investors also want positive cash flow) and are much better spent on hiring FSD engineers, building GF3 and GF4, Maxwell/battery technology, Model Y, Semi, Roadster, Solar Roof, etc.

Also, there is no demand problem for the Model 3 -- the signs point strongly to Tesla being production limited.

Even for Model S/X, investing in battery and interior upgrades is a much better long-term investment than advertising.

Other than perhaps some inexpensive informational videos that can be spread virally, I'd hate to see Tesla waste money on advertising that would be much better spent on the next generation of technology and products.

Innovation is what has fueled spectacular growth in the past and that is what will fuel growth for the next five years.
 
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So about advertising. Is it really worth not buying out all the major news networks and magazines for a drop of 10-20 billion in market cap while having your brand being damaged with false information?

Why not just put up with the necessary evil? It's better for the mission even though it's worst for the soul.

Once Tesla is big enough with enough fan base then they can tell these major outlet to go F themselves.
 
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Is Tesla selling every Model S/X it can ?
With the refresh they just did we'll have to see, maybe they are.

Was it a mistake to take 400K Model 3 preorders ?
That brought in money, with no advertising.

Is creating pent-up demand really a problem to avoid ?
They already have pent up demand. Why spend money to create more?
 
When put to word as you’ve done, it’s mind boggling what is coming like a freight train. I do believe you’re right. I’ve no doubt.

I hope to live long enough to see the whole transformation of this planet that’s been set in motion and at least a solid start on the transformation on the next planet.
Gas-guzzling SUVs and trucks should only be allowed on Mars. Mars needs greenhouse gases and global warming ;)