Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

"Tesla cuts Supercharger prices back down after customer backlash over increase"

It's still a net increase, just not as steep.

On one hand the "Fred tax" strikes again: it was him who described an around +33% increase as a "drastic increase" to begin with.

On the other hand it's good to have better road trip prices than even the most efficient hybrids. So I'm not unhappy about this.

Is this Elon Musk and Larry Ellison figuring out who is the top dog ?

 

[Buckminster]

They plan on doubling production. Yes, and I plan on doubling my muscle mass. When you want to double production you need to double sales first.

If the car starts at $80,000-90,000 before options, and it will, they won't sell 40,000 per year. But you will counter: Model S sells 50,000 cars per year at that price, so why can't Porsche. Except, Model S is a much more versatile car, that can be used as a family car and can be used to haul things around (I just transported two 2 meter long matrasses in mine). The Taycan is a 2+2, in which you probably don't want to sit in the back for more than half an hour. That is a limited market. I would be surprised if they can sustainably sell more than 10,000 to 15,000 per year.

An electric Panamera, Cayenne or Macan is another story. But it will be some years before those arrive. I hope they do though.

I think non Tesla cars will do quite well if:
1) They have a niche (little or no competition in the class) plus being first to market within that niche/class
2) They are similar to an iconic car and made by the original manufacturer - fashionable
3) A design that does not sell because of it's previous ICE characteristics - sound / power (like Ferrari, Mustang or even BMW/Audi)
4) Second/third cars where AP is not required

Porsche Taycan is in a niche not yet covered by Tesla and is similar to the iconic 911 so it will do well. A Porsche SUV would struggle more.

Others that could do well:
1) VW ID - similar to iconic Golf
2) VW Beetle
3) VW camper
4) Rolls, Bentley, Jag, S500, Maybach, Cadillac
5) Mini, Fiat 500
6) Jeep

I feel that their best bet is somehow to convert these niches into serious production quantities. Increasingly, everything that a millennial does or buys needs to be Instagram extraordinary. Sensible/best in class is no longer good enough.

 

[Buckminster]

"Tesla cuts Supercharger prices back down after customer backlash over increase"

It's still a net increase, just not as steep.

On one hand the "Fred tax" strikes again: it was him who described an around +33% increase as a "drastic increase" to begin with.

On the other hand it's good to have better road trip prices than even the most efficient hybrids. So I'm not unhappy about this.

10% price increase per annum is big but reasonable. 33% should have been spread over 3 years.

 

[NicoV]

With the new new supercharging pricing, 1 kWh is 28 eurocent in Belgium. For reference, my home electricity bill in 2018 came down to an average of 27 eurocent per kWh

 

[KarenRei]

On one hand the "Fred tax" strikes again: it was him who described an around +33% increase as a "drastic increase" to begin with.

On the other hand it's good to have better road trip prices than even the most efficient hybrids. So I'm not unhappy about this.

Are you happy about the fact that this means slowing down the expansion of the Supercharger network?

Tesla seriously needs to stop letting Fred bully it.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Are you happy about the fact that this means slowing down the expansion of the Supercharger network?

Tesla seriously needs to stop letting Fred bully it.

Disagree. The supercharger network is a key differentiating selling point. A 33 percent hike will drive fear of lock in, quickly taking away the shine.

 

[KarenRei]

Disagree. The supercharger network is a key differentiating selling point. A 33 percent hike will drive fear of lock in, quickly taking away the shine.

That avoided the question, so I'll repeat it: "Are you happy about the fact that this means slowing down the expansion of the Supercharger network?"

(And to respond to your post: A) even with the 33% price hike it's similar to prices for DC charging from other networks, and B) why a price hike would have anything to do with "lock-in" is beyond me; Tesla is moving away from its own connectors and toward CCS, which is literally the opposite of lock-in.)

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Denies Signing Agreement With Chinese Battery Company
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

BTW Fred is the most powerful Quebecois in the world.

 

[RobStark]

Porsche Taycan is in a niche not yet covered by Tesla and is similar to the iconic 911 so it will do well. A Porsche SUV would struggle more.

Taycan is a direct competitor to the Model S.

If the standard Taycan ends up being a proper sedan with proper trunk then E Cross Turrisimo version will be a liftback sedan getting closer to a shooting brake with a liftgate.

911 is a 2+2 sports car. With the +2 being so tiny it is more a shelf for groceries.

Before people get their panties in a bunch I still think Tesla will sell ~100k Gen II vehicles in 2020.

Model S plus 40k Taycan per year will obliterate Porsche Panamera,Audi A7, Mercedes CLS, and BMW 6 Series sales. And take a fair number of Audi A8, Mercedes S Class, and BMW 7 Series sales.

 

[Fact Checking]

Model S plus 40k Taycan per year will obliterate Porsche Panamera,Audi A7, Mercedes CLS, and BMW 6 Series sales. And take a fair number of Audi A8, Mercedes S Class, and BMW 7 Series sales.

Yes, I'm really curious how they'll manage that balancing act: the Taycan and the E-Tron are two shots through the heart of the German ICE premium segment, by a German carmaker so the usual FUD won't work.

The step from "The car I'm driving is a really cool car, I will buy an upgrade in a year or so" to "Wow, the Taycan is way cool, my next car is going to be a luxury EV" is so tiny IMHO...

Consumer reaction to this will clarify Tesla's future too I believe.

 

[Fact Checking]

Are you happy about the fact that this means slowing down the expansion of the Supercharger network?

Nope, although I do think income from SuperChargers is de minimis, and expansion is largely subsidized not by its income stream but by automotive sales.

Tesla seriously needs to stop letting Fred bully it.

Also true, but the very negative social media reaction was a fact, even if fanned by Fred, and I'm glad Tesla is demonstrating adaptability.

BTW., I expected a sharper tone from Fred, now that the whole referral code angle of income is gone ... The gushing article about the Taycan was also pretty predictable and its goal transparent. Tesla should stop leaking to Fred and should build a relationship with other news sites instead, such as CleanTechnica - and more sensible representatives of the mainstream media.

 

[JRP3]

Would 120kw pack or 2170 cell fit the bill + removing 75kw pack making room for ELR??

It would take more than 120kwh to hit 420 miles unless they also increase vehicle efficiency.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla Denies Signing Agreement With Chinese Battery Company
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Quotes from Tesla:

“This is completely false,” according to a WeChat response to a query from Bloomberg News Tuesday. “Tesla previously received quotes from Lishen, but did not proceed further. We have not signed any agreement of any kind with them.”​

I.e. the Reuters article was complete fabrication.

I expect further attempts that try to push a wedge between Tesla and Panasonic - and I suspect whoever was pushing that Reuters story thought it's time to try this misleading Lishen FUD, shortly after the Toyota/Panasonic joint venture was announced...

Panasonic has been a good and reliable partner to Tesla, they stood by Tesla last summer, despite Tesla being in breech of contract (they couldn't use all the cells Panasonic made). Every indication is that Panasonic too wants to ramp up the Gigafactory to 200 GWh/year capacity in the next couple of year - which is millions of EVs per year capacity ...

 

[Fact Checking]

It would take more than 120kwh to hit 420 miles unless they also increase vehicle efficiency.

I think they are pretty close: with a 110 kWh pack they could probably go beyond 400 miles EPA range by using the new Model 3 drive train in the Model S/X, it's 10% more efficient, so the current 100D range of 335 miles expands to about 405 miles.

 

[Singer3000]

Nope, although I do think income from SuperChargers is de minimis, and expansion is largely subsidized not by its income stream but by automotive sales.



Also true, but the very negative social media reaction was a fact, even if fanned by Fred, and I'm glad Tesla is demonstrating adaptability.

BTW., I expected a sharper tone from Fred, now that the whole referral code angle of income is gone ... The gushing article about the Taycan was also pretty predictable and its goal transparent. Tesla should stop leaking to Fred and should build a relationship with other news sites instead, such as CleanTechnica - and more sensible representatives of the mainstream media.

Some will say this isn’t a big deal but it says a lot about the organisational maturity (or lack of it) at Tesla.

The company is transitioning from being a niche early adopter consumer product provider to a mass market one (with sights set on being perhaps the market’s biggest). It also needs to ensure it’s building a business model that remains sustainable through the economic cycle.

I just cannot get my head around the 180 degree pricing decisions they’ve made recently based upon a few twitter accounts and some opiniated geek with a blog. Normal people who buy cars don’t do twitter and they certainly don’t read EV blogs.

You can’t keep undermining the marketing department with these sudden embarrassing reversals without fatally compromising its ability to function. If the original decision making is that poor and they had missed a major impact on demand from their pricing, replace the key people. It just comes across as ameteur hour right now.

 

[Fact Checking]

You can’t keep undermining the marketing department with these sudden embarrassing reversals without fatally compromising its ability to function. If the original decision making is that poor and they had missed a major impact on demand from their pricing, replace the key people. It just comes across as ameteur hour right now.

Tesla has done several of these 'quick reversals' in the past.

Admitting that you underestimated the backlash isn't immature, I think it's actually the top level of maturity.

Tesla has implemented several larger price hikes and drops of options in the past and largely got away with it. There is a perception disconnect between the true costs of demand-peak priced SuperChargers and the net electricity cost consumers pay at home, and the pricing is difficult to set IMHO.

 

[Lessmog]

Tesla has done several of these 'quick reversals' in the past.

Admitting that you underestimated the backlash isn't immature, I think it's actually the top level of maturity.

Tesla has implemented several larger price hikes and drops of options in the past and largely got away with it. There is a perception disconnect between the true costs of demand-peak priced SuperChargers and the net electricity cost consumers pay at home, and the pricing is difficult to set IMHO.

Sorry, FC, but I'm more inclined to agree with @Singer3000 here -- what we see is the sowing of Uncertainty (FUD, you know) that could be straight out of Putin's playbook. And the hasty reaction to factually really unfounded Fears of a relatively minor price change only serves to spread Doubt as to the steadiness of course, in view of such vacillations. Does Tesla not know what it's doing, comes to feebler minds.

Same goes for the apparently fake news on the battery deal. No need to help the opposition!

All my opinon, of course.

 

[shlokavica22]

I.e. the Reuters article was complete fabrication.

This is a major problem for retail investors. It's real challenge to filter all the noise and false signals, from the one that really matter.
Apparently it's not new to TSLA and it's going on for decades. :

 

[SteveG3]

(... snip)

BTW Fred is the most powerful Quebecois in the world.

Perhaps.

My estimate of the cost of Fred/Elon's twitter exchange leading to the $5K refunds to Model 3 P+&- buyers is about $30-$60 million ($3K per refund when free supercharging cost is backed out, roughly 10K to 20K buyers of the P +&- before the price cut on the P+).

It may well have been that Tesla & Elon raised their SuperCharging prices as much as they did to make up for the cost of that Model 3 P rebate. I'd estimate over the first year, that SC rate increase would only bring Tesla about $30 million in additional revenue (roughly 350K vehicles on avg in 2019 w/out free SuperCharging, roughly avg $80/yr increase in cost per such vehicle in the original rate increase plan). Now that's been dialed back.

 

[shlokavica22]

Brussels prepared to cut US car import tariffs as part of trade pact.

Very healthy volume in the pre-market.