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Anyone see risk in China doing a reverse Huawei while defending NIO? Tesla wouldn't be the anti-Trump voters that China targets in trade wars, but it's still war which does get crazy. I'm betting this will blow over in a pseudo China trade agreement by year's end with all things claimed but nothing accomplished.

Just saying, anyone see exposure to this risk, or is everyone of the opinion that China auto tariffs hurt Tesla less than ICE?
I don't see it happening. China wants to hurt Trump base (eg farmers)... it would do them no good to hurt Tesla as retaliation. Trump would not care. They would possibly hurt Apple way before Tesla as Apple's market cap (and related suppliers- chip co's etc) can put a dent in the market which will hurt Trump. Tesla not big enough to be on the radar.
 
Regarding Twitter's new rules, I think we have a lot more reporting to do against TSLAQ crowd.


"Twitter Safety on Twitter
You may not use Twitter’s services in a manner intended to artificially amplify or suppress information or engage in behavior that manipulates or disrupts people’s experience on Twitter.

Platform manipulation and spam policy"

"Twitter Safety on Twitter
You may not engage in the targeted harassment of someone, or incite other people to do so. This includes wishing or hoping that someone experiences physical harm.

Abusive behavior"
We should all really take this seriously and report shorts. I'm sure they will take it seriously. If it doesn't work, include Jack.

Keira from Recode did a "twitter interview" of Jack. There was a question about "who do you think uses Twitter best to communicate" and Jack answered "Elon Musk".
 
Anyone see risk in China doing a reverse Huawei while defending NIO? Tesla wouldn't be the anti-Trump voters that China targets in trade wars, but it's still war which does get crazy. I'm betting this will blow over in a pseudo China trade agreement by year's end with all things claimed but nothing accomplished.

Just saying, anyone see exposure to this risk, or is everyone of the opinion that China auto tariffs hurt Tesla less than ICE?

I don't see it happening. China wants to hurt Trump base (eg farmers)... it would do them no good to hurt Tesla as retaliation. Trump would not care. They would possibly hurt Apple way before Tesla as Apple's market cap (and related suppliers- chip co's etc) can put a dent in the market which will hurt Trump. Tesla not big enough to be on the radar.

If anything, 'helping' Tesla snubs Trump in a way as manufacturing that could be done in the US is being done in China. IMO, Tesla is a win:win for China. They get to push their country into EVs and trump trump at the same time. Evidence: The China factory build time. NO red tape for Tesla.
 
$120mi in funding some from nuclear officials in govt, 100+ scientists involved, and a total new theory of nature which matches all experimental NIST data we have. Atomic Theory | Brilliant Light Power

You can't make up the slothiness of people who hit the buy button on their TSLA stock as it goes up and down or scan Musk's twitter feed for some new insight.
Do the homework - we're waiting...

Brilliant previously called itself Blacklight Power. I cycled past their research lab frequently in the early 2000s. They claimed way back then that they had tested working prototypes of a cell that produced energy from "hydrinos" and were contracted to build large scale power plants with the same design. It's hard to reconcile how many years they have claimed their new energy source was close to producing commercial amounts of usable energy with them still being in a similar position nearly 20 years later. Maybe there is something to their pretty outlandish claims, but their is a fishy smell to the whole facade.

Brilliant Light Power - Wikipedia

Mod: leaving this here because it's informative and might terminate the discussion, even though othermod had already said "no more alternative energy postings here". --ggr
 
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Going from Q2 delivery numbers to CF and earnings impact, has anyone seen any projections assuming they get to 90K total units? Would be interesting if the FCA cash pushed them to flat or slightly positive. Probably a beat relative to expectations.
I think what could be happening is even with 90 K delivery ,Tesla will meet or slightly miss revenue guidance but margin on M3 could be lot higher then street expectations as M3 production approaching 7K weekly, they throwing delivery bonus means production cost falling as volume rises.
 
Honda, Hyundai, Toyota (Camry aside, 90% of those are Uber drivers borrowing against their pensions).

That's just sad - hopefully they're borrowing for a Model 3 to get some "career" growth there.

As they say, "In a gold rush, sell shovels." I think Tesla has the nicest by a long shot, and it's still early. The surge to have clean energy and locomotion is still sinking in for many... might even take a few more floods for some. Fortunately, these people are the car drivers that make our 2X FSD safety goal for the "average driver" so easy to hit ;)
 
I know we all know this... but you have to keep saying it. #9 best selling period, with no promotion. #2 best selling in California, with no promotion.
No promotion? Ha, Elon is one of the best promotors on the planet. By far the most cost-effective.

Japanese companies have 7 of the top 14 models, Korea has 5, Germany 1 (VW Jetta) and the US 1 (Tesla Model 3). Although Model 3's 1.75% share gain y/y is a factor, the real story is the segment's 6.6% overall decline.
 
If it stopped at an interior refresh then I am not afraid. But now rumors are exterior refresh, tri motor design and a newly designed lighter battery pack giving 400+ miles of range with possible insane 0-60 times and 250kw charging. This affect resale value and depreciation which will have people waiting.
Their IS NOT going to be a battery pack refresh this year. Tesla DOES NOT have the 2170 cells to replace 10GWh/yr of 18650s it currently imports from Japan.

When Tesla does refresh the S/X pack it won't be some minor wiring and cooling update. It'll be Maxcells and a massive rethink of the whole pack, delivering the 600 mile range that Elon hinted at back in 2015, and nearly matching the new Roadster.

The triple-motor package for S/X WILL NOT come out before its introduced in the 2020 Roadster. Why on earth would Tesla scoop their own halo car?

The whole "Like Tesla" tease was based on B.S. just like Kim's claim last Fall of an imminent interior refresh for the Model X. Didn't happen. I hope her source dried up.

Her story lacks analysis and is based on wishful thinking and unicorn farts. Given the potential risk of the Osborne effect, she should rename her channel to "Like Clicks" because she is not helping. Funny that she's driving a free Model X P100D from the referral program, and is in line for a free 2020 Roadster.

Some people's kids... :oops:
 
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Anyone see risk in China doing a reverse Huawei while defending NIO? Tesla wouldn't be the anti-Trump voters that China targets in trade wars, but it's still war which does get crazy. I'm betting this will blow over in a pseudo China trade agreement by year's end with all things claimed but nothing accomplished.

Just saying, anyone see exposure to this risk, or is everyone of the opinion that China auto tariffs hurt Tesla less than ICE?
Anything can happen these days. That said it is very unlikely.

Recent incentive change and other actions taking by the government signal its dissatisfaction towards the domestic car industry as a whole. In the past several years the government was pleasantly surprised by the rise of domestic IT companies leading by Alibaba and Tencent, and thought the market protection would also give boost to the domestic car companies, especially the shifting to electric would offer them once in a life time opportunity to finally not only catch up but also exceeds their counterparts overseas, like WeChat's wild success.

After spending sugar load of incentive money for years, the officials grew more and more angry and sees those companies as complacent, non-innovative. Their hope of seeing another wechat emerging from the car industry vanished. So they invited Tesla in as a wolf, hoping to whip them into shape.

Now there's several complications here. First the above is the belief of some of the high officials, although it seems that these people are still in power now, but things may change. Who knows

Second is that they want Tesla to whip those car companies into shape, maybe killing the weak ones, but definitely NOT all of them. I am guessing Tesla's move to price Model 3 at a relatively high level is a clear signal to these officials that "we get it, we will leave the lower market segment to your pets".
 
The last time I read up on the Thorium and Boron fusion reactors they showed some promise (now 5 years out every 5 years as opposed to 20 years out every 20 years). I couldn't find the original article on the Boron proton reactor but here is the URL for another article.
Record proton-boron fusion rate achieved | FuseNet

Lasers aren't the only way (or best way) to achieve fusion using the very desirable aneutronic fuel hydrogen boron (pB11).
There are several fusion research groups working with lasers and pB11. This article details some of them and results achieved after the first positive results in France during 2013.

https://lppfusion.com/hydrogen-boron-groups-announce-advances-plan-closer-collaboration/
 
She is writing for the Detroit Free Press? Doesn’t she know that Michigan Tesla owners pay about $200 more per year to cover Michigan gas tax? Unreal.


Gotta love this line: “
The Chevrolet Bolt is "the real Model 3," for a lot less money, Appleton said. "The average price of Model 3 last year was $57,000, you can buy a Bolt for $37,000, and the Bolt is every bit desirable a vehicle as the Tesla."


Wow. Talk about spinning the situation. Pretty sad they have to resort to this.

I have been conversing with the author and Mr. Appleton....here is my latest response in case you are curious.


On Thursday, June 6, 2019, 3:00:11 PM EDT, <> wrote:

Dear Mr. Appleton,

1. Thank you for your response. Appreciated.

2. Not sure where you come up with "bait and switch" and "no one on the face of the earth has ever purchased an entry level Tesla for 35k." Here is a video showing otherwise.
Granted, the prices have risen slightly I think by $400. Can still contact Tesla to request the base model. Just not available on website.

3. Are you claiming dealers don't try to upsell? I have yet to be in one that hasn't. People forget that almost EVERY Tesla owner was a former gas car owner. We KNOW both sides.

4. The deposit was easily refundable. I requested a refund via ACH, came through 3 business days later. (I purchased a Model S instead.). There was no statement I recall from Tesla for which reservations were for only the 35k version. I was planning on the AWD version but I preferred the Model S. Tesla has historically sold their higher trim versions first. Nothing new here.

5. Do you honestly think Tesla can't exist with other car manufactuers? After all, many gas car companies can coexist. As more people move toward EVs away from ICE, this will only improve for Tesla. 20% of Americans Say Their Next Car Will Be Electric, Survey Says

6. Other car manufacturers take deposits. If that many people wanted to "give tesla their money for an interest free loan", more power to them!

7. Tesla is doing EXTREMELY well regardless of the "no demand" thumpers. You may want to watch the animation in this article: Animation: U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales (2010-19)

8. Hybrids are the WORST of both worlds. Twice the maintenance and more complicated drive train for less overall performance.

9. Oh, you mean all the Tesla killers? Have yet to see one competitor that matches on the charging network, over the air updates, autopilot AND performance. Seeing as how Model 3 in 2018 didn't really ramp up until the last half of the year, 2019 will be a much better metric.

Failure Of "Tesla Killers" Actually Boost Tesla

10. Even with other companies like VW building out charging networks, Tesla will most likely be able to use their network AND their own. So once again, best to get a Tesla.

11. I'm actually EXTREMLEY glad to hear other companies are getting into EVs. This does ONE thing. It helps LEGITIMIZE ALL EVs.

12. Other car companies and dealers are going to have a difficult time transitioning to EVs if they currently support ICE. Reason: A large chunk of dealerships bread and butter is from maintenance. Where Does the Car Dealer Make Money? | Edmunds

"So where does the majority of a dealership's profit come from? It's not from car sales, at least not directly. It's from the service and parts department, which accounts for 44 percent of the dealership's gross profits, according to NADA."

Do you know how many times I have taken in my Tesla for any types of maintenance other than tire rotation in over 35k miles? ZERO! My previous gas vehicle would have been brought in for 6 oil changes already. That's going to be a hard sell for dealerships to want to promote EVs. And when I do need service, most likely can be done at my house.

13. Current financial meltdown? Are you serious? Tesla can raise money ANY time they want. It has been proven time and time and time again. I think over TWELVE times in fact and most recently, just a few months ago. I think you (and every other bear) will be eating those words.

14. Yes, sales decreased for Q1 For Tesla. Especially S/X. A few things about that:
a. Q1 is normally a slower quarter.
b. They had some delivery hiccups in new markets for their Model 3. For example, China paused deliveries due to some labels being in English rather than Spanish.
c. They discontinued their MOST POPULAR versions of the S and X (75D) which later turned out to be because they were making improvements to their line.
d. Q2 is on track to be close to the best if not the best quarter ever.
e. People in the market for a new S/X usually want the latest and greatest. So waiting a few months until a refresh is possibly coming, is worth it. And guess what, they now can get a S with 370 miles of range.

15. You see... this attitude you are displaying is EXACTLY why so many people are getting turned off with dealerships. Rather than just acknowledging that Tesla has actually lit a fire under the butts of the competition, you just say things like "bait and switch" and "financial meltdown". Do you forget that GM and Chrysler have already filed bankruptcy only about a decade ago? Sadly, the only area where dealerships are actually being successful (albeit in a negative way) is blocking direct sales and service centers in certain states like Michigan. Dispicable practice. So much for "free market". Yet another reason for people to dislike dealerships. That has certainly been the LAST straw from me on ever supporting the dealership model again. I hope Tesla wins at the federal level to knock this BS out. Dealerships should compete based on service and other positives...not negatives to hide behind ridiculous and antiquated laws.

People complain about Tesla fanboys. I get it. But you know what? The dealerships and the unwarranted extreme negative spin has caused this. Not the other way around. You all are extremely threatened. Rightly so. Just wish the reaction from dealers and other manufacturers would be "we will work harder to prove our worth" instead of "bash, dodge, perry, bash, bash".

16. Yes, Tesla has it's growing pains. But still overall, people continue to rank them best. I'm sure the number will drop, the bigger they are, but still impressive. Tesla Has The Highest Customer Loyalty Of All Car Brands | CleanTechnica

17. You mention 67 different vehicles, from 27 different companies, etc. Most likely they will take many more ICE sales away from themselves moreso than a Tesla sale. Again, with more manufacturers entering the market, that only legitmizes EVs and reduces the stigma of having an EV. Remember, Tesla hasn't even done traditional advertising yet.

18. All the haters and shorts had Tesla pegged as dead back in 2010, then 2011, 2012, etc. They'll do just fine.

19. INDEED....TIME WILL TELL!!!!!!!

I would end on 20 but that's just too obvious. :)



On Thursday, June 6, 2019, 12:28:59 PM EDT, Appleton, James <[email protected]> wrote:


Thanks for sharing your comments in response to the recent freepress article on the generous government subsidies enjoyed by Tesla owners.



I was quoted in that story as saying that the Bolt is a $37,000 car and Teslas are selling for $57k. I understand you felt that statement was misleading and that it was not a fair apples to apples comparison btwn Bolt entry level and Tesla entry level. I see you point, in the abstract, but in the real world you can actually buy an entry level Bolt for $37K; nobody on the face of the Earth has ever purchased an entry level Tesla for $35K, because they haven’t built one, yet. Customers didn’t “upgrade”, they were “upsold” in an elaborate “bait and switch” scheme hatched by Tesla when they announced the “$35K Model 3” 2 years ago. Tesla “baited” 500,000 consumers across the US w/ an offer of a non-existent $35K vehicle; took a $1000 deposit ($500M interest free loan); made customers wait two years, and then “switched” them in to a higher priced “upgraded” model. If my dealers tried that, they would have the NJ Attorney General and/or plaintiffs lawyers crawling all over them.



I’m not sure how you’ve concluded “Tesla is kicking their butts”, referring to traditional carmakers and auto retailers. In 2018, New Jersey new car dealer sold more than 10,500 “clean” vehicles, representing 62 different models of battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles from 27 different manufacturers. That’s twice as many as the three models Tesla sold last year. By 2021, there will be more than 100 battery electric vehicles and countless more alternative technology vehicles available for consumers to choose from……just 3 or 4 of them will be Teslas. That’s assuming the company survives the current financial melt-down and the stiff competition it faces from other automakers who are (at long last) “all in” on EVs. Time will tell.





James Brian Appleton, President

New Jersey Coalition of Automotive Retailers

856 River Road

Trenton, New Jersey 08628

609-883-5056 ext. 330

609-883-1093 fax



cid:[email protected]:[email protected]







From: <>
Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2019 1:55 PM
To: Lareau, Jamie <[email protected]>; Appleton, James <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: EV article


Copied



On Jun 5, 2019, at 1:47 PM, Lareau, Jamie <[email protected]> wrote:




His contact information is public if you want to Google it and contact him yourself.

Best,

Jamie





From: <>
Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2019 1:39 PM
To: Lareau, Jamie <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: EV article


But why did he compare average selling price of the Tesla to starting price of the Bolt? Why would anyone do that other than to mislead? Not apples to apples.



Hopefully MANY people see through his “opinion”. I have been a Ford and GM owner my entire life. But these antics that the dealers and big three have been pulling off against Tesla are REALLY unfortunate. It has turned me off from EVER buying another GM, Ford or Chrysler product again.



I can understand their concern as Tesla is absolutely kicking their butt and will become even more apparent over the next several years. But this is not the way to handle it and is only accelerating the big 3 and dealerships downfall.



Please send him MY opinion. Thanks



On Jun 5, 2019, at 1:18 PM, Lareau, Jamie <[email protected]> wrote:




Thank you, , for your feedback and for reading.

TrueCar has the market average price of the 2019 Bolt at $30,900 – after a $6,595 discount.

The Model 3 was $51,900.

His comments were his opinion, but thank you for weighing in and you’re always welcome to write a letter to the editor.

Best,

Jamie




From: <>
Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2019 12:48 PM
To: Lareau, Jamie <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: EV article




BTW, this is hilarious:



“The Chevrolet Bolt is "the real Model 3," for a lot less money, Appleton said. "The average price of Model 3 last year was $57,000, you can buy a Bolt for $37,000, and the Bolt is every bit desirable a vehicle as the Tesla."



Talk about a spin on the situation. Yes the average price was 57k because people UPGRADED! The Tesla Model 3 STARTS at just over 35k. which is LESS than the Bolt.



I hope Appleton realizes this....for his sake.



On Jun 5, 2019, at 12:17 PM, <> wrote:



Hello,

In response to your article here: GM, FCA strike a deal with Tesla that consumers subsidize


Why do you not point out that us Michigan Tesla owners pay about $200 more per year in annual registration fees to cover state road taxes?


Do you think people should be made aware of all the breaks that the oil and gas industries have received over the years?


SendSaveCancel
 
And that's best selling, not most wanted, and without a dealer network or advertising.

I know we all know this... but you have to keep saying it. #9 best selling period, with no promotion. #2 best selling in California, with no promotion.

OK, also look at the growth, and look who is falling. You can see who's lunch is being eaten. Honda, Hyundai, Toyota (Camry aside, 90% of those are Uber drivers borrowing against their pensions).

It’s actually #8... the default view there is in order of best selling *year to date*. Click twice on the last month sales to order by that.
 
Regarding Twitter's new rules, I think we have a lot more reporting to do against TSLAQ crowd.


"Twitter Safety on Twitter
You may not use Twitter’s services in a manner intended to artificially amplify or suppress information or engage in behavior that manipulates or disrupts people’s experience on Twitter.

Platform manipulation and spam policy"

"Twitter Safety on Twitter
You may not engage in the targeted harassment of someone, or incite other people to do so. This includes wishing or hoping that someone experiences physical harm.

Abusive behavior"
So the demented tslaq twits didn't take to kindly of our shining light on their barrage of FUD campaign:

"TMC $TSLA Investor Forum has decided to weaponize @TwitterSafety policy the moment it was announced. My advice to $tslaQ is to stop engaging and subscribe to @Paul91701736 block list. No amount of data, facts, reason, or logic will change a fanatic in a cult."

They even posted screenshots of your post! Funny stuff.
 
We should all really take this seriously and report shorts. I'm sure they will take it seriously. If it doesn't work, include Jack.

Keira from Recode did a "twitter interview" of Jack. There was a question about "who do you think uses Twitter best to communicate" and Jack answered "Elon Musk".

Would love to, but I'm on their block list - I guess I can create another user on another browser and go after them...
 
No promotion? Ha, Elon is one of the best promotors on the planet. By far the most cost-effective.

Japanese companies have 7 of the top 14 models, Korea has 5, Germany 1 (VW Jetta) and the US 1 (Tesla Model 3). Although Model 3's 1.75% share gain y/y is a factor, the real story is the segment's 6.6% overall decline.
Elon is a genius for getting the model 3 out when he did. Based on all the charts coming in on what the model 3 is doing in the EV market it seems it’s move to market is going to pay off despite some early losses. I truly did not believe they would be hitting these production numbers on a sub $40,000 car as quickly as they have.

It’s setting them up to flex their muscles in 2020 while the rest of the market plays catch up and learns the cost of entering Tesla’s market.