Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sean Wagner]

Battery and Driveline Investor Day will be eye-opening I think, if Elon plans to release the kind of in-depth technical information and roadmap that we received on Autonomy Investor Day. My WAG? FCA licenses some driveline tech from Tesla to kickstart their EV program to round out the 'Driveline' part of the day.

Double Edit: rapid growth and moolah is why I've been thinking how FCA and Tesla might benefit each other. John Elkann, the Agnelli scion basically in charge of plotting their course, is only 43. And very obviously preoccupied with the company's viability.

 

[mongo]

TSLA ~~ Mg

Magnesium metal is not quite as dangerous as you're making out. If there are magnesium shavings, swarf or powder lying around a factory floor then that's not good if there's a source of ignition nearby, but blocks of magnesium are not in themselves a fire risk.

Can confirm, Magnesium shavings take a blow torch for a decent time to ignite (473 C).
Once it does start burn, water can't put it out. It burns so hot (3100 C) it breaks the H2O down and reacts with it. Only way to quench with water is if you can get enough fast enough to cool the fire sufficiently to extinguish. (Which is a problem for aircraft carriers handling planes with magnesium from landing gears)
Magnesium + Water = Big Problems for You

Mg does react with steam WebElements Periodic Table » Magnesium » reactions of elements

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, it actually WAS made up.

It's been fully debunked. Most of it is just flat out false.

Here in reality, transportation generates far more global warming / ocean acidification than the difference between animal agriculture and plant agriculture. (A huge portion of agriculture carbon emissions are, of course, from using fossil-fuel powered vehicles, like tractors, which are used heavily in vegetable agriculture.)

(There is one thing which is true: eating animals which are fed grain which humans could have eaten is wasteful. Eating animals which eat plants which humans can't eat is the more traditional and sustainable form of animal agriculture.)

And well managed pastures actually sequester carbon, so can have a net positive impacts.

As you say, there's farming and there's farming. Industrial farming, also for agriculture, is pretty bad - and funnily enough, grass-fed beef is more vegan by weight than wheat: Grass-fed Beef — The Most Vegan Item In The Supermarket

 

[Artful Dodger]

GOOD TASTE IN CANOES! Living the dream.

OT:

Lol! My 17'6" Clipper Tripper (in kevlar) is the main reason why my new Tesla can not have falcon wing doors. So it's a Model Y for me!

 

[KarenRei]

TSLA ~~ Mg



Can confirm, Magnesium shavings take a blow torch for a decent time to ignite (473 C).
Once it does start burn, water can't put it out. It burns so hot (3100 C) it breaks the H2O down and reacts with it. Only way to quench with water is if you can get enough fast enough to cool the fire sufficiently to extinguish. (Which is a problem for aircraft carriers handling planes with magnesium from landing gears)
Magnesium + Water = Big Problems for You

Mg does react with steam WebElements Periodic Table » Magnesium » reactions of elements

As a teenager, I... um... "helpfully collected and later disposed of" magnesium ribbon left over from experiments in chem lab Man that stuff burns bright. Yeah, it's not easy to ignite, but once you get it going, it's like the sun.

(Magnesium ribbon is of course much easier to burn than thicker cast magnesium objects)

 

[replicant]

In the brands ranking, Renault (30%), continues in the leading position, while Tesla (10%) is in the 2nd spot, with Volvo, Nissan (both with 8%) and Kia (7%) all running for the podium.

EV Sales: France May 2019

That is not good, IMO -- unless Tesla couldn't deliver the cars yet.

As a Parisian,, I assume this had to do with all the FUD I hear weekly. I know so many potential buyers who can't buy a car from a soon-to-be-brankrupt company. Also, the Model 3 taxi drivers in Paris seem quite happy with their car, why don't all Uber/Taxi go Tesla then? I guess I'm missing something.

 

[Driver Dave]

Car Stuck in the Shop? The New Waiting Room Has Movies and Manicures

“In a Beepi/Harris Poll from 2016, consumers listed things they’d rather do than negotiate at a dealership: Clean the house (56 percent of respondents ages 18 to 34); wait in line at a state motor vehicle office (34 percent of the same age group) and get a root canal (24 percent of 35- to 44-year-olds). More than half of those surveyed (52 percent) said they felt “anxious or uncomfortable” when visiting a dealer.”

Tesla is the only company that sees the coming future without dealers.

 

[urarthur]

I have downloaded the Q1 data from TSLA 13F Hedge Fund and Asset Management Owners to see who is net short TSLA = PUTS - SHARES + CALLS

View attachment 419140

This is a timely reminder that the Q trolls that you see on twitter are just that.. noisy trolls that don't amount to much in the grand scheme of things. It is also interesting that No. 20 on the list - Saba capital - has blocked me on twitter and is supposed to be a Tesla bull

Most trolls who post daily on twitter have limited exposure to Tesla.
.
Mark Bullshit Spiegel's fund is less than $9 mln, in an interview he admitted that Tesla's short position was 20% of his portfolio in long dated puts (which is a stupid thing to do as an investor).

That's less than $2 mln in puts. Hedging these options would require even less stock from market makers. All in all, less than $1 mln worth of stocks have been shorted due to toiletboy, But his constant bragging and bullshit catches the eyes of many other hedge fund managers.

TeslaCharts is probably a guy in in his apartment with less than 30k in Tesla shorts. If his net worth was higher, he would have started a hedge fund by now or exploit other stocks and not spend all his time perfecting Tesla charts on twitter.

 

[KarenRei]

That is not good, IMO -- unless Tesla couldn't deliver the cars yet.

Not all that different from this same time last quarter in France (February = 401). Then Tesla went on to deliver 1153 in March. It takes time for ships to arrive, and Tesla left none in the pipeline last quarter (e.g. no "unrolling of the wave" back then).

 

[Tslynk67]

View attachment 419147

Think I'll cancel my $205 buy order and put it at 207.5, fancy it might trigger...

 

[Tslynk67]

Magnesium metal is not quite as dangerous as you're making out. If there are magnesium shavings, swarf or powder lying around a factory floor then that's not good if there's a source of ignition nearby, but blocks of magnesium are not in themselves a fire risk.

In Europe, for some reason, pencil sharpeners are made out of magnesium. Back in the late 70's while I was at school, metalwork class, we put one in the forge and set light to it. It shone like the sun! Then the teacher came back into the workshop and we got detention

 

[Dangerous Fish]

In Europe, for some reason, pencil sharpeners are made out of magnesium. Back in the late 70's while I was at school, metalwork class, we put one in the forge and set light to it. It shone like the sun! Then the teacher came back into the workshop and we got detention

Oh yes, much fun could be had in and after Chemistry classes back then. I imagine there's better stock control in schools these days and more stuff is kept locked away from inquisitive young hands. I made off with quite a large quantity of magnesium powder over a period of time. I could give you a good (and very simple) recipe which produces a very impressive explosion, but I fear these days I'd be hunted down by the FBI for publishing it here.

Then there was the lad who nicked a large jar of potassium (in oil) and chucked it into a bucket of water on the sports field to the amusement of the gathered crowd. He got detention too.

Someone else managed to collect a full boiling tube of what is commonly called nitrogen triiodide (produced by pouring ammonia over iodine on a filter paper). He probably didn't realise it, but he had enough in that tube to blow his hand off if it had gone off. I think he may have got detention as well.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Tesla critics like to say that only fanboys, rich idiots, or other such "losers" like to buy a Tesla. I know someone that is an MD and a somewhat conservative Christian. He has owned Mercedes, BMWs, and Volvos. He was planning to buy a used Porsche as a weekend fun car. He wasn’t even thinking about Tesla, being under the impression that it was too expensive and esoteric, and perhaps being dissuaded by all the media FUD.

After I told him that the model 3 started at 40k, he started looking into it. I didn’t have to pressure him at all, nor did I point him to any online resources. He got on the internet himself, and within an hour became very enthused with the car. He subsequently took a test drive and was absolutely thrilled. According to him, even the base model "had everything". Within two weeks, he placed an order for an SR+ with FSD. (BTW, this is a different person than my friend in Baltimore who also ordered a model 3).

Goes to show how much FUD and mis-perception is out there, but at the same time how transparent and easily refuted the lies are. Just a little time and research, and a previously impartial or skeptical, but reasonably intelligent consumer can quickly become a Tesla fan and customer.

Like this, many others across the country and the world. And you start to see the trend. Just like the iPhone, which the critics and corporate incumbents laughed at, until one by one consumers over the world began to see the light, and the infatuation began. Make no mistake, the Tesla demand tsunami is coming…

I think all my friends must be the broke type. I have the same result when I deliver the facts to my friends/family. The word they say the most is, "really?" in a surprised tone. However, none of them actually buy a Tesla because I don't think any of them can afford one.

I really need to make some wealthy friends!

 

[bpjod]

OT:

Lol! My 17'6" Clipper Tripper (in kevlar) is the main reason why my new Tesla can not have falcon wing doors. So it's a Model Y for me!

I know. I'd have bought a Model X if it weren't for those admittedly cool Falcon Wing doors. I need a canoe on the roof in summer, roof rack in ski season and a 5,000 lb towing capacity. Instead I have a Model 3 and a Highlander. I'm not a fan of the Highlander and every time I drive it I wish it were a Model X, or I hate to say it, but the diesel burning, pollution spewing, Touareg TDI we had before it.

Bring on the towing capability in the Model Y. Sadly, my bet is it will only be 3,500 lbs.

 

[Alphacrux]

Also interesting. The above friend's daughter, who is in eighth grade, was also leaning towards the Porsche. I told her that all the kids her age were into Teslas. She didn't believe me. I then told her to take a survey of her friends via social media. She obliged. The result: 5 chose Porsche, over 40 chose Tesla! Wow!! Now their whole family is into Tesla, and like I said, the father just placed an order for an SR+. And they live in Tennessee. So even there, the kids know what's up. It's not just an east coast / west coast thing.

My neighbor knows about Tesla and thinks they are good cars. I’m not sure he would buy one, he likes to fix up old cars. But he says that his son, who is not old enough to (legally) drive, is crazy about Tesla (and Apple). I offered to give them a ride in the near future.

 

[Swampgator]

I know. I'd have bought a Model X if it weren't for those admittedly cool Falcon Wing doors. I need a canoe on the roof in summer, roof rack in ski season and a 5,000 lb towing capacity. Instead I have a Model 3 and a Highlander. I'm not a fan of the Highlander and every time I drive it I wish it were a Model X, or I hate to say it, but the diesel burning, pollution spewing, Touareg TDI we had before it.

Bring on the towing capability in the Model Y. Sadly, my bet is it will only be 3,500 lbs.

It will be at least 4500#. Has to be. BMW X3 can tow 4400. Elon always knows his competition.

 

[tschmidty]

Bring on the towing capability in the Model Y. Sadly, my bet is it will only be 3,500 lbs.

My fear as well, especially as the X is only 5000. Really is problematic for me as well since I tow a sailboat that probably weighs about 4500 on it's trailer.

 

[JRP3]

If that is a core competency, "turn out the lights..." as Dandy Don would croon.

Tesla's procurement/supply chain management has been pretty much a disaster since the git-go. Remember:

Magna International and the Roadster two speed gear box?
Air freighting tires for early Model S's from the Czech Republic?
Hoerbiger and the Model X Falcon Wing Doors?
Air freighting in six plane loads of robots to GF-1 for Module 2 in the pack assembly line because an un-named subcontractor screwed up?
etc?
​

All the supply chain/procurement executives of any gravitas have departed. Where are

Liam O'Connor?
Adam Plumpton?
Peter Carlsson?
etc.?​

Can you identify the individual that is now managing this core competency?

Supply chain is about acquiring in a timely, cost effective manner the components need in one's business. It's not about deviating into acquiring the means of producing (such as mining and refining) those components.

​

You list previous issues, then list previous employees, now gone. See the connection?

 

[KarenRei]

Someone else managed to collect a full boiling tube of what is commonly called nitrogen triiodide (produced by pouring ammonia over iodine on a filter paper). He probably didn't realise it, but he had enough in that tube to blow his hand off if it had gone off. I think he may have got detention as well.

I once had a teacher who (before I was in his class) had done a class experiment where he made silver fulminate, the active ingredient in those firework poppers that you throw on the ground (e.g. an extremely shock-sensitive explosive). You make it wet (in ethanol) and then dry it out on paper - but it becomes increasingly shock sensitive as it dries. It's important to not make too much at once or let it dry too thick, because even its own weight can set it off. Which is exactly what happened - and worse, it wasn't completely dry yet, so it splattered silver fulminate solution all around the room - desks, walls, ceilings, floors, everywhere. The cleaning crew was furious with him because, even weeks later, they'd be in the room cleaning and suddenly whatever they touched would just explode with a loud pop, scaring them half to death.

Also had a chem professor who did a class experiment once a week, every week, and never did a single one without some sort of safety-related incident occurring. Some were almost comic-book style, like when she was trying to dissolve a bunch of pennies in nitric acid, but they weren't dissolving, and she was talking about how sometimes the oxide coating causes a delay, and kept stirring.... then finally stuck her face right up to the opening of the flask to get a better look, right at the second that they all went off at once in a big cloud of toxic brown smoke

Also had just as awkward of a physics professor who was once demonstrating a wimshurst machine with leyden jars, which he'd charge, then discharge with a spark, charge, discharge with a spark, charge.... then set it aside. And we're all looking at each other like, "Did he just forget to discharge the thing? Surely... he's not going to forget and then touch it later, is he?" And sure enough, 15 minutes later he needed more space on his desk, so he picked it up, by the electrodes... there was a loud pop, then silence, and he stood there perfectly still for what seemed like an eternity. Then finally, in a quiet voice.... "I.. think I'm okay...."

Sorry, I know, offtopic...

 

[brian45011]

you out of your *sugar* mind to suggest that it's a mistake to speed up the resolution of a primary production bottleneck by ~4 weeks, a bottleneck that is costing you about ~$100m of lost productivity per week??

You seem to have inferred something I did not intend to imply. I was not "smearing uncritically" Tesla's recovery measures once the deficiencies in the supply chain became apparent. The examples cited were intended as illustrations of symptomatic flaws in Tesla's supply chain management which necessitated expensive Plan Bs. Tesla's power train engineering along with several areas of technical expertise are legitimate core competencies. Supply Chain (and insurance or mining) not so much.