Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

 

[Artful Dodger]

you should learn not to believe every TSLAQ smear uncritically.

You are charitable beyond reasonable presumption. Certain people here routinely repeat TSLAQ smears. They keep a laundry list of them, apparently even going back as far as 2-speed gearbox-gate. [SMDH].

Knowledge of arcane accounting practices does not fundamentally change the nature of these sophists: ultimately, they use clever but fallacious arguments in pursuit of their agenda.

The goal is always to waste time, and most importantly, to delay action.

 

[dqd88]

Just went on Twitter and it seems to me that most of the the Q heads saying Elon is lying about the delivery. Some even put together long convoluted argument that Q2 delivery would be worse than Q1.

Are they really believing that?

Yeah they prob are believing that.
Just saw some bear that estimated 80k with $500M loss for Q2 and 60k, $1B loss for Q3. They are convinced that this is a niche product and that pent-up demand was mostly serviced already and not many new buyers. I haven't see estimates where Q2 is worse than Q1 though. My estimate is 86-92k

 

[SPadival]

This is a bit above my knowledge level so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but does this site show actual shares that are shorted? Is the "net short" amount actual shares? Let's take Royal Bank of Canada for ex - it appears they are a shareholder correct? But they bought puts options that exceed shares+call options by 2,160,567? So they are basically not doing puts solely as an insurance policy but to profit on the downside? I guess I would not find that as distasteful as if they just had short sold the same amount of shares outright.
Is there anyway to see who has true short positions (only stock, not options)? Might be good to publicly shame them if they are a consumer facing business like the Bank of Canada.

You can download the data yourself and check. There is nothing in the data that says if the stock has been "borrowed".

And if Saba has so many puts is he just fronting as a bull on twitter? What's his play? Why did he block you? I have always viewed him as a very outspoken bull.

It turns out that Saba capital is different from the random dude of the same name who blocked me on twitter (I think he blocked me because I told him its not cool when he called Linette Lopez a fat pig or something)

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

This post received a bit of every type of feedback available. Made me think... like a good movie - some comedy mixed in with good drama and suspense. Hello! No lack of that with Tesla. The real movie will be awesome.


I thought the same, but held all shares anyway thinking I'd kick myself for selling ANYTHING this low still.

The valuation is so low because Tesla had a huge first quarter loss. How do you value a company that might be hugely profitable in the future but is not profitable now.? Answer: YOU CAN'T. Will autopilot really happen? Is it not hugely more profitable to have a Taxi with NO DRIVER needed? Lots of people thought a car would never replace a horse and that a telephone was worthless. Most people don't see the value in any new idea. When you see value anywhere and nobody else does, POUNCE on it.

 

[schonelucht]

Pardon my language, but because you usually know what you are talking about: are you out of your *sugar* mind to suggest that it's a mistake to speed up the resolution of a primary production bottleneck by ~4 weeks, a bottleneck that is costing you about ~$100m of lost productivity per week??

I think he's suggesting it should never have come to that. Dealing with an unexpected magnesium fire is one thing, but not checkpointing progress and milestones on an automation subcontractor's deliverables planned months if not years in advance is your own damn fault.

 

[Fact Checking]

Dealing with an unexpected magnesium fire is one thing, but not checkpointing progress and milestones on an automation subcontractor's deliverables planned months if not years in advance is your own damn fault.

Magnesium is one of the most flammable substances in existence, for example simply exposing it to moisture, or to air near hot industrial equipment can ignite it. That magnesium could trigger an industrial fire was not "unexpected" in any way, it was probably one of the most predictable sources of fire risk in the Ford factory...

Magnesium is rated as an explosive risk in most of its forms.

Why were there no proper procedures in place in Ford's factory to prevent the magnesium fire or to mitigate the worst-case outcome?

I think he's suggesting it should never have come to that.

Here's the exact context:

Air freighting tires for early Model S's from the Czech Republic?
[...]
Air freighting in six plane loads of robots to GF-1 for Module 2 in the pack assembly line because an un-named subcontractor screwed up?
etc?

Air freighting tires from the Czech Republic almost a decade ago was probably a frivolous expense of a disorganized Silicon Valley start-up.

Air freighting critical production equipment almost a year after the subcontractor screw-up was discovered, to speed up the resolution of the production bottleneck by ~3-4 weeks, is a sound logistics decision, similar to Ford's decision to use the largest cargo plane in the world to move critical production equipment between continents.

Mistakes happen, but the double standard displayed against Tesla here is incredibly unfair.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Tesla critics like to say that only fanboys, rich idiots, or other such "losers" like to buy a Tesla. I know someone that is an MD and a somewhat conservative Christian. He has owned Mercedes, BMWs, and Volvos. He was planning to buy a used Porsche as a weekend fun car. He wasn’t even thinking about Tesla, being under the impression that it was too expensive and esoteric, and perhaps being dissuaded by all the media FUD.

After I told him that the model 3 started at 40k, he started looking into it. I didn’t have to pressure him at all, nor did I point him to any online resources. He got on the internet himself, and within an hour became very enthused with the car. He subsequently took a test drive and was absolutely thrilled. According to him, even the base model "had everything". Within two weeks, he placed an order for an SR+ with FSD. (BTW, this is a different person than my friend in Baltimore who also ordered a model 3).

Goes to show how much FUD and mis-perception is out there, but at the same time how transparent and easily refuted the lies are. Just a little time and research, and a previously impartial or skeptical, but reasonably intelligent consumer can quickly become a Tesla fan and customer.

Like this, many others across the country and the world. And you start to see the trend. Just like the iPhone, which the critics and corporate incumbents laughed at, until one by one consumers over the world began to see the light, and the infatuation began. Make no mistake, the Tesla demand tsunami is coming…

 

[Antares Nebula]

Also interesting. The above friend's daughter, who is in eighth grade, was also leaning towards the Porsche. I told her that all the kids her age were into Teslas. She didn't believe me. I then told her to take a survey of her friends via social media. She obliged. The result: 5 chose Porsche, over 40 chose Tesla! Wow!! Now their whole family is into Tesla, and like I said, the father just placed an order for an SR+. And they live in Tennessee. So even there, the kids know what's up. It's not just an east coast / west coast thing.

 

[Fact Checking]

Also interesting. The above friend's daughter, who is in eighth grade, was also leaning towards the Porsche. I told her that all the kids her age were into Teslas. She didn't believe me. I then told her to take a survey of her friends via social media. She obliged. The result: 5 chose Porsche, over 40 chose Tesla! Wow!! Now their whole family is into Tesla, and like I said, the father just placed an order for an SR+.

Demonstrates why "we are going over to YouTube", the goofing off with social media celebrities, the memes on Twitter, the lack of advertising on the TV channels only their parents are watching are one of the strongest qualities of Elon and Tesla.

Every single year ~4 million new car customers enter the market at the young end, and ~3 million stop buying cars at the older, ICE end of the demographic wave - in the U.S. alone. Many of them cannot afford a Tesla, but hundreds of thousands can.

Every single year, and it's cumulative.

This is IMHO one of the primary reasons the TSLAQ terrorists want to get Elon off social media.

 

[Carl Raymond]

The valuation is so low because Tesla had a huge first quarter loss. How do you value a company that might be hugely profitable in the future but is not profitable now.? Answer: YOU CAN'T. Will autopilot really happen? Is it not hugely more profitable to have a Taxi with NO DRIVER needed? Lots of people thought a car would never replace a horse and that a telephone was worthless. Most people don't see the value in any new idea. When you see value anywhere and nobody else does, POUNCE on it.

You make it sound like a coin toss. All Tesla need to do is scale up as planned to become hugely profitable. Robotaxis, should they arrive, are a bonus prize.

 

[SPadival]

Is there anyway to see who has true short positions (only stock, not options)? Might be good to publicly shame them if they are a consumer facing business like the Bank of Canada.

I went back and looked at the SEC site for what is included in form 13F as this is the source of data for TSLA 13F Hedge Fund and Asset Management Owners

Question 41
Q: What about short positions?
A: You should not include short positions on Form 13F. You also should not subtract your short position(s) in a security from your long position(s) in that same security; report only the long position.

F#@3r$.... Short seller Enrichment Commission is definitely the correct name for the SEC.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Likely there's some effect. Just check the post above yours:

A person bypassed P to save $2k and bought an AWD. Also, considering there were less than 10k SRs sold in Q1, there had to be some pent up demand for SRs in Q2. We don't know for sure whether Q3 will have comparable numbers from N.A.
Q4/Q1 should show a sustained demand, which should keep growing going forward.
Not that I doubt Q3 N.A. demand, but if it goes to 2/3 of Q2 for a while, I won't be surprised or alarmed, this should be ok and temporary.

Yes, but this person had initially ordered the P without FSD, which he was going to buy later. Having instead got the AWD for 10k cheaper, he decided to go ahead and order FSD with it -- $6k pure margin (well, almost). So that is the other side of the coin.

 

[Artful Dodger]

While we're on the topic of redFay's greatest faux pas, here's an update from our GF1 'outsider', carsonnight:

carsonight | 18 hours ago

"500 GWh number is wrong."

"Agreed. Fred made a couple of mistakes in this article.
1. Fred is continuing to post the 105 GWh at the cell/150 GWh at the pack nonsense, for when and if GF1 is completed. The plans were for 150 GWh at the cell. With the new higher speed cell machines the same number of machines will produce 200 GWh at the cell, and this does not even consider the improved efficiencies from the Maxwell technology.
2. If GF1 achieves that volume it will be enough battery cells for 7000 LR Model 3s per day, or 2.5 million per year."​

Indeed, with the Tesla tweaks yielding 400K cells/line/day on the 3 new Panasonic lines, combined with Maxwell's roadmap that could double energy per cell, plus some Tesla Grohmann robomagic to reduce labor, GF1 is now on a pathway to 500 GWh annual battery cell output. (write about that, redFay! )

So then back to business: its obvious that Panasonic's North American battery subsidiary is ripe for a take-over, merger, or buyout. Does anyone know the Ticker symbol it trades under? Anyone building a position in Panasonic on spec?

Battery and Driveline Investor Day will be eye-opening I think, if Elon plans to release the kind of in-depth technical information and roadmap that we received on Autonomy Investor Day. My WAG? FCA licenses some driveline tech from Tesla to kickstart their EV program to round out the 'Driveline' part of the day.

Cheers!

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Every single year ~4 million new car customers enter the market at the young end, and ~3 million stop buying cars at the older, ICE end of the demographic wave - in the U.S. alone. Many of them cannot afford a Tesla, but hundreds of thousands can.

There is also a secondary effect. When everyone desires a thing, there is value in even the people who cannot afford a thing at any point ever... desiring the thing.
People are basic animals. We all know that a porsche signifies money, and sexiness and success (subconsciously, even if rationally we may argue otherwise). This has value to the brand *even when we cant ever afford one*, because our desirability of the car creates value for the people who DO buy them.

Put another way: If you persuade 100 people that teslas are cool, and only 10 can afford one, partly those 10 are more likely to buy *BECAUSE* those other 90 will think they are cool/hip/rich/geeky if they own one.

This is why aston martin advertise in places outside of just forbes magazine.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Elon had just retweeted an Electrek article earlier today. - I wish he would stop giving these bozos free coverage, especially with the sort of bullsh!t articles like the above linked.

Tesla clearly says its increasing service centre headcount, yet Fred, after getting that response from tesla, continues with his asinine opinion as follows “It might be too premature for Tesla to start letting go of employees in service in my opinion.”

It doesnt take a genius to read between the lines - Tesla got rid of some underperforming service staff.

I think Elon is training Fred like I trained the puppo in my avatar. Reward good behaviour by giving him a treat (or tweet in this case) and discourage negative behaviour by witholding attention/punishment via negative tweets.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Magnesium is one of the most flammable substances in existence, for example simply exposing it to moisture, or to air near hot industrial equipment can ignite it. That magnesium could trigger an industrial fire was not "unexpected" in any way, it was probably one of the most predictable sources of fire risk in the Ford factory...

Magnesium is rated as an explosive risk in most of its forms.

Magnesium metal is not quite as dangerous as you're making out. If there are magnesium shavings, swarf or powder lying around a factory floor then that's not good if there's a source of ignition nearby, but blocks of magnesium are not in themselves a fire risk.

 

[X Fan]

RE: Fred’s service article and Elon’s comment on mobile service, specifically for tires.

I just had two tires replaced in Charlotte (one had been repaired twice and still had a slow leak; other was perfect but better to replace both since paired).

I had tried to get mobile service but was told that mobile service had been discontinued for fixing tires. (Counter to article’s Elon’s comments).

FWIW: App was easy to use, appointment was reasonably quick and I was out in an hour (had a filter changed and a review of fluids) since service team did not have an overload of cars to work on. I was told volume of service visits was down because 3’s are arriving in such high quality (and I suppose less s&x’s to work on right now).

 

[canoemore]

Mmmmmm, scotch, Quetico 17 canoe and Tesla Model 3. These are some of my favorite things...

View attachment 419132

(I think I need a cold shower now. Everyone else can get back to investor discussions.)

GOOD TASTE IN CANOES! Living the dream.

 

[traxila]

Sorry, from what i found out after researching this by checking with people at the NYT, Broder has nothing to do with Tesla at the NY Times. The negativity you may see in the Times is provided by others without any help from Broder, as far as I can tell.

You are correct. The yellow rag known as the NYT needs no help or direction from any one person in its organization to spin FUD about Tesla. It is very much a team effort. The reasons for this probably span the spectrum - from jealousy to self interest, pet peeves, billionaire hatred and all the rest.