Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bpjod]

Now, I've had a couple of scotches so far this evening ... the second purchase I make after buying a Souris River Quetico 17 canoe is going to be a Model 3.

Mmmmmm, scotch, Quetico 17 canoe and Tesla Model 3. These are some of my favorite things...

(I think I need a cold shower now. Everyone else can get back to investor discussions.)

 

[tinm]

Broder is now the ring leader of anything related to Tesla at the NYT. For this reason I no longer give them my clicks.

Sorry, from what i found out after researching this by checking with people at the NYT, Broder has nothing to do with Tesla at the NY Times. The negativity you may see in the Times is provided by others without any help from Broder, as far as I can tell.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Just went on Twitter and it seems to me that most of the the Q heads saying Elon is lying about the delivery. Some even put together long convoluted argument that Q2 delivery would be worse than Q1.

Are they really believing that?

Hope so. The bigger the reality disconnect, the bigger the burn when the figures are posted.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon - "if you had clearly painted lines, and could count on them, self driving would be trivial.
23:40
He may have forgotten about some other aspects...

 

[Thekiwi]

Hope so. The bigger the reality disconnect, the bigger the burn when the figures are posted.

Unfortunately whenever one of their predictions / theories is proved wrong by reality, they usually resort to their default fallback position that Tesla is lying, before moving onto their next stupid theory repeat ad infinitum.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Elon - "if you had clearly painted lines, and could count on them, self driving would be trivial.
23:40
He may have forgotten about some other aspects...

Not really. I think you may need to think a bit deeper about what “and could count on them” means.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Unfortunately whenever one of their predictions / theories is proved wrong by reality, they usually resort to their default fallback position that Tesla is lying, before moving onto their next stupid theory repeat ad infinitum.

They can think what they like. Sane investors will see a beat as a beat and that puts upward pressure on the stock.

The crazy TSLAQ crowd are best described as entertainment, like that dude in Iraq who kept saying Saddam had the situation under control.

Baghdad Bob
Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf - Wikipedia

As the number of people raving about their new Tesla propagates, soon it will be the mainstream media who sound like Baghdad Bob, if not already.

 

[NicoV]

Fred is a trigger happy dude. Just jumps on every bit of info and thinks he's doing the world a service.

Yeah, he can rewrite a tweet of 50 characters into a page long article.

 

[sundaymorning]

Another hit piece on Tesla from the Washington Toast:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...e-brand/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.08432aea06c4

Being tired of all the *sugar*, I took the time to sign up and whipped up a quick comment. I'm sure most of you could write a better one (feel free to do so):

------------------------

One doesn't have to be labeled a 'fanboy' by someone else to realize the advantages of electric cars and how far ahead of the competition Tesla is.

• Where is Volkswagon's, BMW's, Porche's, Volvo's, or Mercendes-Bennz EV on the market now to compete with Tesla 370-mile range model S? Oh that's right, they don't have one.
• Musk said that there absolutely aren't any demand problems, and production is pretty good and Q2 could be a record quarter. 'Manufacturing hell' is outdated news.
• Tesla has service centers and mobile technicians that come to your house to fix any minor issues that might occur. EV's in general reqiore almost no routine maintenance. And without 'huge marketing teams', they still sell all they can produce.
• It sounds like the writer deliberately attempts to mislead. A quick google search led to this top youtube hit about a mom who fit 3 child-seats into the rear seat of her model 3:
• Be afraid. Be very afraid. EV powertrains are more efficient and require less maintenance than gas-powered vehicles. Electricity costs are generally lower than gas. EV's are quieter and can provide instant torque and produce no vehicle emissions (Note many EU countries are starting to require all emission free vehicles by 2050 or so). Battery improvements in the next few years will produce price-parity with conventional gas vehicles, not just lower total cost of ownership. Tesla is a leader in this expanding market with leadership in battery technology, power-train technology, high-speed charging, and autonomy and is growing rapidly. And they are a US company.
• I have ordered my third Tesla. Nothing wrong with the older ones, like computers, they just keep getting better.
• The Russians refused to sell Musk rockets (except at an exorbitant price). So Musk started his own rocket company, SpaceX, and is now landing reusable rockets on barges. Who's laughing now? I would not bet against Elon Musk.

The Washington Post is own by Jeff Bezos of Amazon. He is in direct competition with SpaceX and Tesla, notably he invested in Revion. I don’t know if I’m spelling the name of that truck company correctly as I don’t think it’s much competition to Tesla.

 

[Singuy]

They can think what they like. Sane investors will see a beat as a beat and that puts upward pressure on the stock.

The crazy TSLAQ crowd are best described as entertainment, like that dude in Iraq who kept saying Saddam had the situation under control.

Baghdad Bob
Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf - Wikipedia

As the number of people raving about their new Tesla propagates, soon it will be the mainstream media who sound like Baghdad Bob, if not already.

I am being as objective here as possible, but the TeslaQ people has certain level of correctness with certain aspect of Tesla.

No demand, decline deliveries, the cars being crap, Tesla will never be profitable..all of this are objectively nonsense.

But Tesla's messages, especially from Elon is very mixed and confusing. I don't know why he would tweet "advanced summon almost ready and will be released in a few weeks" 4 months ago..and now is saying "it turns out parking lots are a lot more complicated than we thought". And this is not the first time he makes the excuse of "it turn out X is a lot more complicated than we thought". Why is he constantly doing this? It really give people the sense that he doesn't know what he is doing(and it's almost the message he wants you to have too...in fact sometimes he just flat out and say.."it was our first time doing this..we didn't know what we were doing". TeslaQs and shorts feed on uncertainty..and Elon give people this in spades. I honestly think he ends up spoiling the magic of everything. People's expectations were 20, Elon promises 150..people now expect 150, he delivers 80..people ends up being disappointed...but if he just said nothing we would have been mind blown realizing the difference between 20 and 80.

 

[sundaymorning]

No need to thank me

First look at Tesla's solar roof tile technology with custom fittings…

This is very good news. It looks like they have a plan. I was told that Tesla solar roof will now offer 3-4 selections of power, much like the 3-4 selections of Model 3.

 

[dqd88]

Reporting the news is fine.

I just can't stand the stupid "Electrek’s Take" section after every article (mostly Freaking Fred's opinion)

This time:
"It might be too premature for Tesla to start letting go of employees in service in my opinion."

You don't even know the scope of the layoff and what exact type of employees are being laid off.
It is the ejaculation of your stupid meaningless opinion that is "too premature"

This guys is really getting more and more annoying

I put Electrek on my "ignore list" after the stupid toilet paper article.

 

[RobStark]

In the brands ranking, Renault (30%), continues in the leading position, while Tesla (10%) is in the 2nd spot, with Volvo, Nissan (both with 8%) and Kia (7%) all running for the podium.

EV Sales: France May 2019

 

[Fact Checking]

Air freighting in six plane loads of robots to GF-1 for Module 2 in the pack assembly line because an un-named subcontractor screwed up?

Pardon my language, but because you usually know what you are talking about: are you out of your *sugar* mind to suggest that it's a mistake to speed up the resolution of a primary production bottleneck by ~4 weeks, a bottleneck that is costing you about ~$100m of lost productivity per week??

Example of other carmakers accelerating shipment of critical production equipment per air:

https://jalopnik.com/heres-how-ford-used-one-of-the-worlds-biggest-planes-to-1826116377

"Ford shut down production of the F-150, its best selling vehicle, on May 2 after a magnesium fire at a supplier caused a parts shortage. But just two weeks later it’s going back online after the automaker moved 87,000 pounds of equipment to England, hiring one of the world’s biggest cargo planes to do it."​

Ford got treated as a clever hero by the media who saved production by moving production equipment by air and saving the ~3-4 weeks sea shipment delay. Production equipment idling in a container on the Atlantic is losing a serious amount of money every day it's not producing.

Tesla got attacked in the media for a similar move, and the double standard is nauseating. Your suggestion that it's not just a mistake but an example of incompetence is breathtaking...

It would be gross negligence not to ship in those production lines per air. Had SpaceX have SpaceShip Earth to Earth cargo service available in 2018 alteady it might even have been an economically sound decision to ship those robotic lines from Tesla Grohmann Germany to Nevada by space transport to cut another ~24 hours off the production interruption...

Those attacks against Tesla were 100% bogus, both Ford and Tesla did the financially right thing by shipping critical production equipment via air, and you should learn not to believe every TSLAQ smear uncritically.

 

[SPadival]

I have downloaded the Q1 data from TSLA 13F Hedge Fund and Asset Management Owners to see who is net short TSLA = PUTS - SHARES + CALLS

This is a timely reminder that the Q trolls that you see on twitter are just that.. noisy trolls that don't amount to much in the grand scheme of things. It is also interesting that No. 20 on the list - Saba capital - has blocked me on twitter and is supposed to be a Tesla bull

 

[Fact Checking]

I have downloaded the Q1 data from TSLA 13F Hedge Fund and Asset Management Owners to see who is net short TSLA = PUTS - SHARES + CALLS

View attachment 419140

This is a timely reminder that the Q trolls that you see on twitter are just that.. noisy trolls that don't amount to much in the grand scheme of things. It is also interesting that No. 20 on the list - Saba capital - has blocked me on twitter and is supposed to be a Tesla bull

Also note that I believe these numbers do not include the proprietary trading TSLA short positions Wall Street investment banks maintain, which positions are notionally delta neutral and don't have to be treated as a net short positions by SEC and FINRA regulations, but in reality are short positions: such as calendar spreads (both selling and buying PUTs with different expiry times) and "protective puts" bought or CALLs written against convertible bonds.

I.e. even the very generously lax and helpfully opaque short position reporting rules in the U.S. have loopholes the size of a truck to drive through.

Every time you hear the "but investment banks are not allowed to perform proprietary trading, they must not trade against their clients and their analysts have no financial interest in helping or hurting a stock" argument, it's a lie.

 

[Cobbler]

I have downloaded the Q1 data from TSLA 13F Hedge Fund and Asset Management Owners to see who is net short TSLA = PUTS - SHARES + CALLS

View attachment 419140

....

Where is Stanphyl Capital on that list? It's represented by the biggest $TSLAQ FUD bear of all times

 

[dqd88]

I am being as objective here as possible, but the TeslaQ people has certain level of correctness with certain aspect of Tesla.

No demand, decline deliveries, the cars being crap, Tesla will never be profitable..all of this are objectively nonsense.

But Tesla's messages, especially from Elon is very mixed and confusing. I don't know why he would tweet "advanced summon almost ready and will be released in a few weeks" 4 months ago..and now is saying "it turns out parking lots are a lot more complicated than we thought". And this is not the first time he makes the excuse of "it turn out X is a lot more complicated than we thought". Why is he constantly doing this? It really give people the sense that he doesn't know what he is doing(and it's almost the message he wants you to have too...in fact sometimes he just flat out and say.."it was our first time doing this..we didn't know what we were doing". TeslaQs and shorts feed on uncertainty..and Elon give people this in spades. I honestly think he ends up spoiling the magic of everything. People's expectations were 20, Elon promises 150..people now expect 150, he delivers 80..people ends up being disappointed...but if he just said nothing we would have been mind blown realizing the difference between 20 and 80.

You have a point. Elon commits unforced errors quite often. And the FUDsters eat it up. But he's the only one we have. No one else on this entire planet has the right combination of guts, intellect, resources, foresight, drive, etc etc, which I find kind of shocking and sad. Some are trying (all the other EV startups)... kudos to them. I hope some succeed.
I do think Elon is getting better recently. He's chilled way out on Twitter. (Perhaps Ellison is providing some mentorship in this arena).
I think he's just being honest with his predictions and guidance. He thought advanced summon would come sooner. Then he found out it wouldn't. I don't think he puts a ton of thought into managing expectations.

 

[SPadival]

Where is Stanphyl Capital on that list? It's represented by the biggest $TSLAQ FUD bear of all times

Forget Toilet boy hedge fund. One hit wonder Jim Chanos has calls and no puts in sight (I have checked his other hedge fund Urus.. nothing there)

 

[dqd88]

I have downloaded the Q1 data from TSLA 13F Hedge Fund and Asset Management Owners to see who is net short TSLA = PUTS - SHARES + CALLS

View attachment 419140

This is a timely reminder that the Q trolls that you see on twitter are just that.. noisy trolls that don't amount to much in the grand scheme of things. It is also interesting that No. 20 on the list - Saba capital - has blocked me on twitter and is supposed to be a Tesla bull

This is a bit above my knowledge level so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but does this site show actual shares that are shorted? Is the "net short" amount actual shares? Let's take Royal Bank of Canada for ex - it appears they are a shareholder correct? But they bought put options that exceed shares+call options by 2,160,567? So they are basically not doing puts solely as an insurance policy but to profit on the downside? I guess I would not find that as distasteful as if they just had short sold the same amount of shares outright.
Is there anyway to see who has true short positions (only stock, not options)? Might be good to publicly shame them if they are a consumer facing business like the Bank of Canada.

And if Saba has so many puts is he just fronting as a bull on twitter? What's his play? Why did he block you? I have always viewed him as a very outspoken bull.
CORRECTION --> I think you have the wrong Saba Capital. This guy is small fry out of Israel: Aziz Saba (@Saba_Capital) | Twitter
The Saba Capital Management LP on the 13F is this outfit in NYC: Saba Capital Management, LP | Our Team
Two unrelated entities. The latter does not appear to have a twitter.