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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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OC ;)
[Is this a short squeeze?]

Very little short covering yesterday, but we won't get today's numbers from Ihor until tomorrow. :(

Ihor Dusaniwsky‏ @ihors3 2h2 hours ago

$TSLA short interest is $9.91 bn; 46.13 mm shs shorted; 35.03% of float; 0.97% borrow fee. Shs shorted are up 2.16 mm shs, +4.92% over the last week even as stock price rose +5%. Shorts are down $405mm in mark-to-market losses today, YTD gain is $3.18bn.

D9RXOQOXsAA2mkz.jpg

0 replies 7 retweets 30 likes​
 
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It be fair, even the overwhelmingly bullish investors in the TMC market thread didn't manage to talk much about the +5% rise of TSLA today, and I'd not be surprised to see CNBC chime in on the KPH vs. MPH controversy as well!! ;)

Problem is that we're still ~60% lower than previous highs (from ~6-7 months ago) for a high-growth tech company that's in a several high-growth markets with market leading technologies.

5% is great! ...
 
Report: Trips In GM’s Cruise AV Take 80% Longer Than In A Normal Vehicle

'Now another similar report has been published by The Information, a subscription only technology and business publication. The article, entitled ‘Technical Glitches Plague GM’s $19 Billion Self Driving Car Unit’, claims the launch of the Cruise self-driving taxi service is still well behind schedule due to the numerous issues with the Cruise AV platform.

The report says Cruise AV prototypes will turn off suddenly and for unknown reasons. One embarrassing failure of this type came when GM was giving a demonstration ride to Honda CEO Takahiro Hachigo. The safety driver had to take over the controls just 20 minutes into the demo ride after the vehicle’s software shut off and the vehicle remained rolling down the road. Eventually, another Cruise AV prototype arrive to finished the demo run. Honda is a major investor in Cruise, having committed $2.75 billion to the company last year.

The Information says Cruise AV prototypes will also become confused by every day driving occurrences, such as steam from vents on the roadway or water splashing up from other cars, frequently perform sudden and aggressive braking maneuvers and sometimes fail to properly yield to traffic. The vehicles also operate at a slow speed relative to a human driver, with your average Cruise AV ride taking approximately 80% longer than normal.

GM’s own internal calculations also indicate that a car with a human driver is about 10 times safer than the current version of its Cruise AV prototype, said The Information.'

Without a fleet feeding the machine learning data, GM Cruise AV will flounder about.

Tesla was very very smart to get all the cameras on vehicles early on, and then build the system to collect the data.

Tesla's software is now way ahead of everyone, and will continue to accelerate away.

They can now iterate in self driving features and abilities, collecting data as they go, on a mass networked global scale.

They created the machine that creates the machine.

TESLA HARDWARE + TESLA SOFTWARE + TESLA FLEET = AHEAD FOR QUITE A WHILE
 
Is this April 1 or did someone hack CNBC? This sounds like one of their Tesla headlines, but it's about GM...

GM’s race to outflank Tesla may be stalling out

"Back in 2017, General Motors CEO Mary Barra painted a future in which America’s largest carmaker would prosper by phasing out the American Graffiti vision of V8-powered freedom on the open road. GM would launch 20 models of electric cars by 2023, beginning early this year, she said, preparing for a time when cars would drive themselves and many people would use ride-hailing services rather than own cars themselves. ...

But as hard as GM is pushing, the world pushes back. The company denies claims in the trade press that it missed its self-imposed deadline for the first two product introductions this spring, saying two models introduced in Chinakept the vow. But a slowdown in China, a ratcheting up of trade tensions and the looming expiration of a key U.S. tax credit to encourage EV adoption still promise to make the job harder." ...

If GM has made any mistakes in pushing toward its future, it’s probably that it began its EV push in 2010 with its lower-end Chevrolet brand when the most eager early EV buyers wanted higher-end cars like Teslas. ....

“There are multiple elements that go into the price of an EV, including battery cost, leveraging the China market to achieve global scale on a common architecture and gaining manufacturing efficiency with less complexity, ” said Doug Parks, GM’s vice president of autonomous and electric vehicle programs, in an e-mail interview. “We are focused on all these items to drive profitability.“

But Krebs is dubious this strategy can be pulled off as rapidly as GM says it can — though she didn’t offer an alternate timeline. ....

Cruise has struggled to overcome many of the same obstacles as other self-driving car research efforts. A report last week in The Information, a Silicon Valley digital publication, said the company’s effort to launch an autonomous vehicle-powered taxi service is behind schedule because of software and other issues that leave the vehicles, for now, slower than regular cars and unable to consistently identify common driving situations, like nearby sirens."
 
Report: Trips In GM’s Cruise AV Take 80% Longer Than In A Normal Vehicle

'Now another similar report has been published by The Information, a subscription only technology and business publication. The article, entitled ‘Technical Glitches Plague GM’s $19 Billion Self Driving Car Unit’, claims the launch of the Cruise self-driving taxi service is still well behind schedule due to the numerous issues with the Cruise AV platform.

The report says Cruise AV prototypes will turn off suddenly and for unknown reasons. One embarrassing failure of this type came when GM was giving a demonstration ride to Honda CEO Takahiro Hachigo. The safety driver had to take over the controls just 20 minutes into the demo ride after the vehicle’s software shut off and the vehicle remained rolling down the road. Eventually, another Cruise AV prototype arrive to finished the demo run. Honda is a major investor in Cruise, having committed $2.75 billion to the company last year.

The Information says Cruise AV prototypes will also become confused by every day driving occurrences, such as steam from vents on the roadway or water splashing up from other cars, frequently perform sudden and aggressive braking maneuvers and sometimes fail to properly yield to traffic. The vehicles also operate at a slow speed relative to a human driver, with your average Cruise AV ride taking approximately 80% longer than normal.

GM’s own internal calculations also indicate that a car with a human driver is about 10 times safer than the current version of its Cruise AV prototype, said The Information.'

OMG.

BTW., let's contrast this with Adam "Terminator" Jonas's valuation of GM Cruise:

"We value GM Cruise in our SOTP model at $9bn"​

His overall GM valuation: +30% over today's stock price.

Adam "Terminator" Jonas's bear case and valuation for the all of Tesla, which includes Autopilot, installed in hundreds of thousands of cars, which have already driven over a ~billion miles with half the accident rate of human drivers: 5% of today's stock price, less than $2bn valuation...
 
Is this April 1 or did someone hack CNBC? This sounds like one of their Tesla headlines, but it's about GM...

GM’s race to outflank Tesla may be stalling out

"Back in 2017, General Motors CEO Mary Barra painted a future in which America’s largest carmaker would prosper by phasing out the American Graffiti vision of V8-powered freedom on the open road. GM would launch 20 models of electric cars by 2023, beginning early this year, she said, preparing for a time when cars would drive themselves and many people would use ride-hailing services rather than own cars themselves.

But as hard as GM is pushing, the world pushes back. The company denies claims in the trade press that it missed its self-imposed deadline for the first two product introductions this spring, saying two models introduced in Chinakept the vow. But a slowdown in China, a ratcheting up of trade tensions and the looming expiration of a key U.S. tax credit to encourage EV adoption still promise to make the job harder."

If GM has made any mistakes in pushing toward its future, it’s probably that it began its EV push in 2010 with its lower-end Chevrolet brand when the most eager early EV buyers wanted higher-end cars like Teslas.

“There are multiple elements that go into the price of an EV, including battery cost, leveraging the China market to achieve global scale on a common architecture and gaining manufacturing efficiency with less complexity, ” said Doug Parks, GM’s vice president of autonomous and electric vehicle programs, in an e-mail interview. “We are focused on all these items to drive profitability.“

But Krebs is dubious this strategy can be pulled off as rapidly as GM says it can — though she didn’t offer an alternate timeline.

Cruise has struggled to overcome many of the same obstacles as other self-driving car research efforts. A report last week in The Information, a Silicon Valley digital publication, said the company’s effort to launch an autonomous vehicle-powered taxi service is behind schedule because of software and other issues that leave the vehicles, for now, slower than regular cars and unable to consistently identify common driving situations, like nearby sirens."

Yeah, someone at CNBC accidentally search&replaced "Tesla" with "GM".

Heads gonna roll!
 
Ihor now says only around 5M shares remain available to short. His estimate seems to be shrinking without any increase in short interest. Are institutions calling in their shares to get a short covering rally going? They're earning less than 1% interest now, so it would certainly make sense - a large holder could recall half their shares and probably get the same amount of interest by forcing the rate higher, plus get the added benefit of squeezing the shorts.

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
 
When on a trip, you are charging in order to be able to drive. MPH is the only meaningful charge metric relative to trip charging when comparing vehicles. I don't care in the least whether other vehicle X charges at a higher power rate than my vehicle for the purpose of comparing charge speed--I care how long I need to charge in my Tesla vs in the other car I'm considering.

And when comparing how long I need to charge, I'm going to calculate how long I need to charge in order to make the next leg of the trip--in other words, how long to gain a certain number of miles.
The problem with that is that using the (as stated by Jerry33 and in my own experience) average mph gives a much higher charge rate than indicated. It could easily say 100 mph when the instantaneous rate is only 10 mph. That makes its finishing time harder to estimate.
 
The problem with that is that using the (as stated by Jerry33 and in my own experience) average mph gives a much higher charge rate than indicated. It could easily say 100 mph when the instantaneous rate is only 10 mph. That makes its finishing time harder to estimate.

Hi.

This is Investors’ Roundtable thread.

How may I assist you?
 
But vehicle efficiency is independent of "charge time" and variable based on vehicle.

Think about the comparison people are used to (and detractors often poke at BEV's for): filling up your gas tank.

It takes the same amount to time to pump 20 gallons in to a 15 MPG truck as it does in to 50MPG hybrid. How efficient the vehicle is with that fuel is "after the fact", and determines how far you can go.

In the same way, the direct comparison is how long it takes to transfer XX kWH of energy in to a 3, S, or a Leaf. How efficient the vehicle is with that energy is after the fact and determines how far you can go.
While what you say is correct, noone cares about filling time for ice vehicles because it is generally accepted in society that you just refill your vehicle when it is empty. They care about MPG because it is a shorthand for cost.

At the moment with EVs people are worried they will have to stand around all day while their car charges and stop frequently to recharge. They don't care about cost because charging is cheap. Therefore the range per unit time of charging is the better metric for EVs.

The argument is not about comparing the same metrics between ICE and EV, it's what metric covers the most prominent concern for the respective purchasers.
 
I hope Elon could stay silent a little longer to see if we can ride this wave up, but given that the shares shorted are at an all time high, I think we are just at the start of a squeeze but not quite yet. Depends on the fed, the macros and delivery numbers over the next couple weeks. I also bet there will be some analyst revisions upward if we maintain this that could add wind to our sails.
 
CNBC just spent a couple of minutes talking about Elon's tweets over the weekend... deleting his twitter account etc..

But during this segment they did not mention "Tesla" at all, nor that TSLA was up 5%, nor did they show a TSLA graph on-screen.

Disgusting.
They must realise they are becoming irrelevant
 
Ihor now says only around 5M shares remain available to short. His estimate seems to be shrinking without any increase in short interest. Are institutions calling in their shares to get a short covering rally going? They're earning less than 1% interest now, so it would certainly make sense - a large holder could recall half their shares and probably get the same amount of interest by forcing the rate higher, plus get the added benefit of squeezing the shorts.

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
I recall reading in this thread that shares that are up for sale can't be shorted. Is that true? Could we all list a portion of our shares with an ask price of $2,000 and speed up a short squeeze?
 
It dropped nearly a dollar for that minute or two. So that's $413k it cost someone(s) to sell stupidly. Or intentionally trying to trigger the MMD.

Well, that's interesting! While I was typing the above, Yahoo Finance redrew/rescaled the bottom of the stock chart and that huge spike disappeared! It also doesn't make sense, because now the volume histogram shows green even though the bar chart clearly still shows the sudden drop. Something is fishy. Another sudden price drop just now (10:20 EDT).

Edit: And now (10:22), the spike is showing again, but it's green, not red. WTF?
Yes - went off in fidelity app as well. Very weird.

The biggest dump it shows now 205k at 10:46.
 
Ihor now says only around 5M shares remain available to short. His estimate seems to be shrinking without any increase in short interest. Are institutions calling in their shares to get a short covering rally going? They're earning less than 1% interest now, so it would certainly make sense - a large holder could recall half their shares and probably get the same amount of interest by forcing the rate higher, plus get the added benefit of squeezing the shorts.

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
Those rates are set daily, if shares shorted are running low (indicating high demand) why aren't the rates going up? Is it normal for such high short interest to barely move the interest needle?

I'd ask @ihors3 myself, but no twitter and all that...
 
I recall reading in this thread that shares that are up for sale can't be shorted. Is that true? Could we all list a portion of our shares with an ask price of $2,000 and speed up a short squeeze?
Being up for sale is a commonplace urban myth it seems. Shorting only has to settle on a daily basis: if you have shares in a margin account bought with borrowed money then they can be shorted. If you don't want them shorted, sell them or pay them off to own them outright (yeah, I don't do margin so I'm not clear on how that works, but you have to do that if you want to vote as a shareholder so it can be done).