Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[shrspeedblade]

UAW negotiates for profit sharing plans.

You would have to ask UAW leadership why they are so against stock options.

BTW The UAW always target one Detroit automaker to negotiate with and then the other two accept, with perhaps minor modifications, the same contract.

No precedent for one deal for legacy automakers and another for new startups.

Immediate returns, versus long term, even at the expense of future employees.

A union's goal is to build the employees loyalty toward the union, not the employer. They're damn good at it, even though ultimately they take money from the employees and the employers provide a way to make a living, in some cases a very good one.

Divide and conquer. They do it to school districts and municipalities as well.

Anybody who has had to survive in a union environment would be familiar with these things. I have nothing against organized labor in theory, only against what has become in our age in practice that ultimately betrays the dignity of the movement that spawned it.

 

[EVNow]

Papafox, the more I watch the SP over the years, the more I’m convinced that the bulk of the mischief is not done by pure shorts, but by sellers of options. It’s unadulterated manipulation to make money on weekly (and longer) options. There is enormous profit in this.

Option sellers want SP to remain flat - that is when they make money. Sharply increasing or decreasing SP is bad for them. Dumping shares to bring down the price is definitely the work of shorts. Once they start, bots follow and that has a huge impact on SP. Swing traders join when they see a clear trend. But to break through a support point, someone should be willing to sell for lower than the market price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Also... how does one submit suggestions for names for VW's great new vaporware cars?-

Like the new ID3-based Camper-Bus TEchnology Demonstrator?

ID BUS-TED​

 

[M3Rider]

CR published a list of their donors recently; many of them provided huge amounts of funding.

OT
This? Consumer Reports Annual Report 2018
Don't see anything Audi/VW related.

Please include specific info if you have it to cut down OT back and forth.

 

[N5329K]

Also... how does one submit suggestions for names for VW's great new vaporware cars?-

Nimbus? Stratus? Cirrus? Nothing as substantial as Cumulus.
Robin

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Maybe Australian cars? Or does that not work out for their supposed first deliveries timeline? Regardless, it would be the first tangible sign of the wave unwinding.

I believe the cars at the pier are RHD, but my guess would be UK.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Max pain at 222.5 is acting like a magnet

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think he's too aggressive, simply because the industry can't ramp up that fast. The growth rate, worldwide, has been that EV production doubles every two years -- quite consistently. It was about 2 million in 2018. So the total number produced in 2025 should be roughly 12 million. I think total car sales will still be around 78 million. So, less than 1/6 of new car sales.

However, following that same curve, we should be at nearly-100% electric before 2030; 2028 maybe. The last 10% of new ICE vehicles will take longer but it will all be in weird niche small-volume vehicle markets; nobody will be able to afford to mass-produce gasoline cars.



That is true.

I think we are still in the honeymoon stages of EV saturation. I just got coal rolled for the first time this week in Az. Black diesel truck looked like it was on fire. I say we will have a gas market that really lingers. People still defend Trump because they don't want to be wrong. Same goes with EV, IMO. For some with larger egos, they won't be able to handle a quiet car. I've already heard that problem with a gentleman who owned a performance Honda. So thinking the change will drag on the tail end - market size is still 50% unless media laws change and truth be told en mass. They live in a vacuum, hard to change views now a days.

 

[Sancho]

@Sancho , I don't think we're really that far apart on our views. I agree there are plenty of option traders who are swing traders and are following the cues from the media and from certain analysts when it is time to get in and out. On the other hand, the manipulations which happen by selling 10s of thousands of shares in one minute's time I think are often calculated efforts that are amplified by the bots, and one needs to either have purchased lots of shares and dump them quickly or do some shorting to bring those market-moving selling sprees to reality. This type of selling behavior is not typical of longs who are trying to divest and not particularly typical of swing traders, either. Then there's the overlap of short-sellers who are also buying puts, just as there are TMC longs who are also buying calls to leverage their bets. Could you please expand upon your view that agnostic option traders are pulling the manipulation levers rather than shorts? I have an open mind. What about mandatory morning dips and capping? How about push downs into close? How much capital do the option traders have to manipulate the market by unusual selling patterns? Are you talking about hedge funds primarily when you refer to manipulative option traders? The normal way for sellers of options to make money is through decay of time value while they delta-hedge to remain neutral. I remain curious.

@Papafox I’m assuming hedge funds and other big money. I’m not thinking swing traders, but players with a strategy of selling calls on undervalued stocks and then artificially keeping the stock undervalued by capping, MMD, push down to close etc. They look like shorts because they are on the same side, but they don’t have a negative view of their targets. They are just out to make a quick buck. One main difference between them and shorts is that when the SP consistently rises they temporarily get out completely. The shorts stay in, and double down.

In the end, it may not matter who is behind these manipulations, they should be unlawful regardless. But if I ran the SEC, I’d first look at whether these suspicious trades are being done by large call sellers.

 

[M3Rider]

Max pain at 222.5 is acting like a magnet

Was adjusted to 220 actually.

 

[Tim S]

CR published a list of their donors recently; many of them provided huge amounts of funding.

Consumer Reports Annual Report 2018

The biggest donors listed are:

$100,000+

• ABIM Foundation
• The California Endowment
• California Health Care Foundation
• Energy Foundation
• Fidelity Charitable
• Ford Foundation
• The William & Flora Hewlett Foundation
• Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
• The Craig Newmark Foundation and Craig Newmark Philanthropic Fund
• Anonymous Donor

 

[StealthP3D]

This is *possible* but I'm not sure the Osbourning can be *that* aggressive... down from 78 million to 30 million total? Doubt it.

Doubt is a powerful thing and it's not limited to your doubt. Buying a new car is the second largest purchase most people ever make (after a house). New car sales are therefore very sensitive to things like the economy and the purchaser's financial outlook. A little bit of doubt is enough for someone to delay a purchase. Is this the right thing to do now? Will it be in demand in 4-6 years when I want to sell it? Will it retain enough value that it will help me get into a new car at that time?

So the very emotion that makes you wonder if the transition will be that dramatic will actually accelerate that transition from fossil to EV as people doubt the wisdom of buying an expensive new fossil car that might be a stranded asset as they see everyone around them snapping up every EV produced. Even a regressive half-wit will be able to see what is going on around them.

I also think you under-estimate the ability of capitalism to rise to the occasion and increase the supply of raw materials and finished goods. Mines of battery minerals and metals are already planning massive expansion. The groundwork has already been done. I'm just hoping the vested interests in fossil tech isn't successful in the effort to legislate and put the brakes on the transition. I think it's a risk in the US, not so much in the rest of the developed world where people seem to understand on a deeper level how important this transition is for all of humanity.

 

[Alphacrux]

I think we are still in the honeymoon stages of EV saturation. I just got coal rolled for the first time this week in Az. Black diesel truck looked like it was on fire. I say we will have a gas market that really lingers. People still defend Trump because they don't want to be wrong. Same goes with EV, IMO. For some with larger egos, they won't be able to handle a quiet car. I've already heard that problem with a gentleman who owned a performance Honda. So thinking the change will drag on the tail end - market size is still 50% unless media laws change and truth be told en mass. They live in a vacuum, hard to change views now a days.

Sorry to hear that. Did you get the license plate number? We need to be able to report all such incidents, especially if caught on video.

Even in this very progressive city of Austin, TX, I am amazed at how many ICE cars are on the road. I think price is still a huge factor, but not the only one. Just looking around in my neighborhood, I note the type of vehicles my neighbors have:

• His: huge pickup, with enormous front grill almost as tall as I am (as aerodynamic as a brick wall). Seems to be retired, not a trades-person. Hers: Large SUV.
  
• Professional couple: His BMW, Hers: luxury SUV
• Mini-type car of some sort. Goes 'Vroom-Vroom' on startup, very loud exhaust
• Fixer-uppers: Likes to work on cars. Seems to own about six of them.

For sure, this country is all about freedom to make personal choices. But even in this liberal town, people should be more mindful of the environment. Maybe the younger generation will save us.

 

[EVNow]

Was adjusted to 220 actually.

The real Max Pain changes as a lot of the options get closed or rolled on Friday. Each MM will have their own Max Pain they work towards - everyone works in their self-interest.

 

[StealthP3D]

Consumer Reports Annual Report 2018

The biggest donors listed are:

$100,000+

• ABIM Foundation
• The California Endowment
• California Health Care Foundation
• Energy Foundation
• Fidelity Charitable
• Ford Foundation
• The William & Flora Hewlett Foundation
• Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
• The Craig Newmark Foundation and Craig Newmark Philanthropic Fund
• Anonymous Donor

So, Consumer Reports is so independent they don't accept advertising, only direct bribes!

 

[EVNow]

Doubt is a powerful thing and it's not limited to your doubt. Buying a new car is the second largest purchase most people ever make (after a house). New car sales are therefore very sensitive to things like the economy and the purchaser's financial outlook. A little bit of doubt is enough for someone to delay a purchase. Is this the right thing to do now? Will it be in demand in 4-6 years when I want to sell it? Will it retain enough value that it will help me get into a new car at that time?

Yes - that's what this transition difficult. You need to change a lot of people's minds. Half the country might even be against EVs because of political reasons - and we know how difficult that is to change. For eg., if Democrats win in 20/24 and promote EVs, that would be a good enough reason for half the country to not buy EVs.

Obama administration in 2009/10 published a target of 1M (?) plugins by 2015. I thought it would be a slam-dunk, because everyone was waiting for a 100 mile EV for $30k. Turned out not to be the case.

 

[InDaClub]

9-hour UAW strike ends with deal for workers who supply parts to Ford, FCA, Tesla

 

[StealthP3D]

For eg., if Democrats win in 20/24 and promote EVs, that would be a good enough reason for half the country to not buy EVs.

I disagree. You are describing what is, at it's worst, 20% of the population. Nowhere near half.

 

[Crowded Mind]

This is so sloppy on so many levels.

According to ev sales blog - Total plugins is 2M in 2018, out of which 69% is BEV (1.4M) and with Tesla being 245k - that works out to 18%.

But this Goldman Genius thinks Tesla has a current market share of 30% ! Sloppy.

ps : He thinks in 2022 Tesla will sell 740k of S, X & 3. (no mention of Y). BUT, in 2025, they will only sell 760k of S, X, 3, Y, Pickup & Semi !!

Basically there are only a limited number of people who will ever buy a Tesla. As Tesla introduces more models, the same set of people buy different models, so we see 100% cannibalization and absolutely no expansion. That includes Semi

Quick correction on this. The 2025 forecast of ~760k units is indeed Goldman Sachs' forecast while the 2022 780k (740k) forecast is the Street's estimate according to Goldman, which they believe to be too optimistic.

"Further, we think the Street is modeling too optimistic sustainable volumes for TSLA -- with the company achieving 780k units across the S, X, and 3 lineup, and while our 2Q19 EBITDA is above FactSet consensus we remain below Street estimates for 2019, 2020, and 2021 by an average of 19%."

Seems a bit weird that the Street would be that high without including Model Y volume. I wonder if GS took some liberties and specified S/X/3 onto a number that did not have such specifics attached.

 

[schonelucht]

Is Fastned profitable?

No. Far from it. They managed to cover costs of exploitation for the first time this quarter.