Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bramsvs]

Are there reports of anyone in Europe already having taken delivery of an SR+?

In The Netherlands for sure!

Look at this list over here: Europe SR+ bestellingen, 'bestellingen' means 'orders', 'geleverd' == 'delivered'.

Here: https://opendata.rdw.nl/Voertuigen/Tesla-Model-3-delivery-NL/76t3-9ba8 I count 47 Model 3s with a 1.584 kg mass. All delivered after June 20, assume they're all SR+.

Some additional proof: Model 3 - Afleveringen from a happy customer..

Edit:
Above list is what @schonelucht was talking about.

 

[Dutchie]

Lets assume Tesla will indeed hit between 90'000 to 92'000 deliveries and reporting a GAAP loss of around US 280$ million.

How will this affect stock price? Positively, neutral or negatively? I do certaintly have no idea.

It will go down. Wall Street is looking for a profit and if you cannot make a profit with these delivery numbers when will they? They will ask. Wall Street is critical about Tesla's business model and whether there can be money made with EV's at all. With high deliveries and a loss the critiques will be proven right..

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Damn, this is my worry as well. I hope you're wrong. I want Tesla @ 300.

So do I...and I firmly believe it will. Just not until they get through this state of mega growth. The market will just have too easy a job manipulating the stock downward until then, or at least slowing the rise.

Dan

 

[CitizenKane]

Norwegians have bought about 16 600 Teslas in the past 12 months. If the rest of Europe's some 740 million people bought the same number of new Teslas per inhabitant and year, we would be looking at sales of 2,2 million Teslas per year. In Europe.

 

[scaesare]

What's with this weird pattern where the stock pops in the morning, then drags down most of the rest of the day? Just shorts and manipulators pissing into the wind?

It's... MAD!

(Mid-Afternoon Dip)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Price reductions and unfavorable mix (more model 3 - less S X

Q2 will likely see more S and X deliveries than Q1, not less.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes - and this note coming so late in the quarter signals that it’s not entirely clear they’ll make it. Therefore, any estimate outside of a relatively narrow 88,000 to 92,000 range is pretty unlikely.

Not sure - the last time we had a similar email was final weekend of September last year when it sounded like they had to do everything over the last two days to make it, but turned out to be a rather comfortable beat.

 

[abasile]

Wow, I just had a small TSLA buy limit order execute at $218.99. Thanks, Wall Street manipulators, for the bargain!

 

[neroden]

I don't think we can infer anything from leaked motivational emails from Elon.

I am currently thinking 87K-92K deliveries. I don't really care, since I've had my eyes on Q3 for some time. I think we'll get real information out of Q3 -- how fast the new combined S/X line can produce "Ravens", and what the steady-state delivery and production situations are currently looking like for Model 3 sans Shanghai. Also how fast they're making progress on their ungodly communications mess.

 

[kengchang]

I don't think we can infer anything from leaked motivational emails from Elon.

I am currently thinking 87K-92K deliveries. I don't really care, since I've had my eyes on Q3 for some time. I think we'll get real information out of Q3 -- how fast the new combined S/X line can produce "Ravens", and what the steady-state delivery and production situations are currently looking like for Model 3 sans Shanghai. Also how fast they're making progress on their ungodly communications mess.

S/X is one single line, nothing to do with Raven.

 

[Tslynk67]

In my opinion it will go down.

As I posted earlier, if they near 100K deliveries and are GAAP neutral then maybe it goes up to say $250. Anything else, the shorts will beat it down as more evidence that demand is not sustainable and burning more cash.

AKA the TSLA circus.

Just my two cents of course.

Dan

Q2 deliveries = 100 cars, stock down
Q2 deliveries = 1000 cars, stock down
Q2 deliveries = 10000 cars, stock down
Q2 deliveries = 100000 cars, stock down

Seems to be the general market reaction to everything

 

[sparcs]

Also how fast they're making progress on their ungodly communications mess.

Do you think they will even comment on this at all?

I almost think Tesla believes that communication is essentially a symptom of some other Tesla problems so it's not necessarily as important. So they would rather throw the money on fixing the underlying issue like parts delays or service or delayed paper work. Tesla is magnifying the communication problems by having these real problems. The issue is that these communication problems go on so long and get very visible. You just don't see enough people putting out these fires (at least from what i can see).

 

[neroden]

S/X is one single line, nothing to do with Raven.

Um, the S & X produced on one single line are Ravens.

 

[neroden]

Do you think they will even comment on this at all?

I almost think Tesla believes that communication is essentially a symptom of some other Tesla problems so it's not necessarily as important.

They may think that. If they think that,Tesla is wrong.

For instance, the ludicrous situation where I got the runaround because Tesla didn't understand the concept that someone might be buying a Tesla as their first car, and need a VIN number to get insurance... that is 100% communication. Communication is the ONLY aspect of the problem.

The time when I had to call four times to get my service issue written down correctly -- was 100% communications.

The time when they sent Mobile Service out without the replacement wiper parts they needed (which I had told them they needed) -- then sent me *two* of the replacement part before sending Mobile Service out again -- that's 100% communications. They made an unnecessary visit and then sent an extra part due to failed internal communications.

There is nothing to these problems *except* the communications.

So they would rather throw the money on fixing the underlying issue like parts delays or service or delayed paper work.

Delayed paperwork IS a communications problem.

That's the thing, there is no underlying issue in a lot of these cases -- the issue is communications full stop.

Tesla is magnifying the communication problems by having these real problems.

True, problems like parts shortages magnify the communications problems.


With the delivery dates -- there may well be some transportation and parking-lot-shortage issues, but 99% of the problem is communications. Many people would be happy if Tesla could just arrange a date with them, in advance, and then stick to it. If the different departments inside the company were communicating with each other properly, this would be possible -- the person communicating with the customer could say "They'll be making a batch of your configuration on XXX date, shipping to your area on YYY date, we should be able to deliver on ZZZ date", and then they would deliver on that date most likely. The customer-facing person has none of this information, because of failed internal communications.

The problem is that these communication problems go on so long and get very visible and there isn't enough people putting out these fires (at least from what i can see).

 

[Tslynk67]

Wait - is this a feature I’m not aware of? What are the “red dots”?

Supercharger locations

 

[EVNow]

Lets assume Tesla will indeed hit between 90'000 to 92'000 deliveries and reporting a GAAP loss of around US 280$ million.

How will this affect stock price? Positively, neutral or negatively? I do certaintly have no idea.

Well, there is almost a month of separation between announcement of P&D and ER. So, we'll have to see how the market reacts to each of the events.

I'd like to think about 90k is good - and what happens to SP depends on whether there is a run up before the P&D announcement.

Current consensus is EPS of -0.61 (non-gaap) on Yahoo. That is close to GAAP loss of $280M. So, I'd say, in a few days after ER, SP comes back to where it is before ER. Ofcourse also depends on Q3 guidance.

 

[neroden]

Do you think they will even comment on this at all?

I think we'll be able to see from the reports elsewhere in this forum whether progress is being made by the end of Q3.

 

[Nocturnal]

Q2 deliveries = 100 cars, stock down
Q2 deliveries = 1000 cars, stock down
Q2 deliveries = 10000 cars, stock down
Q2 deliveries = 100000 cars, stock down

Seems to be the general market reaction to everything

When you are playing a game and the other side can legally cheat it's tough to get away with it. I figure this won't change until Tesla becomes steady in profitability and the big money swamps the short trolls.

 

[Fact Checking]

So considering how productive Elon's companies are, I can only surmise that he would not want to pay more tax as that would eat away at his ability to go to Mars/have sustainable energy.

It won't if Tesla uses surplus profits to grow.

Elon also has another quote:

> 'By the way, I am actually a socialist. Just not the kind that shifts resources from most productive to least productive, pretending to do good, while actually causing harm. True socialism seeks greatest good for all.'

Elon is actually for universal health care and universal basic income:

Twitter

"Universal income will be necessary over time if AI takes over most human jobs"

Twitter

"I think essential services, incl health care, should be taken care of by govt/taxpayers (socialist) & other parts of economy should be served by companies competing to serve the people (capitalist). Aka, the view held by most of America."​

These kinds of services require nordic level of taxation (42-46% of GDP), not U.S. level taxation (27% of GDP) where the richest 1,000 (0.01%) only pay around ~10% of tax - or even lower of we include all the income loopholes like investment / capital gains income.

Elon isn't tribal, AFAICS he is holding a healthy mix of coservo-liberal and libero-conservative views that make both camps unhappy.

 

[Maitri982]

Tesla Beating Competitors Even With Its Hands Tied