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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Flexibility is not what I would call an aging experienced mind. The most flexible minds are those that are young. A lack of experiences subject you less to skepticism and confirmation bias.

I've met a lot of what my set called "young fogies" in the classroom. And I can attest with boring examples to being one in classes at MIT and Harvard.

On this I disagree from my own experience and now tip my king to you because I'm becoming a bore.
 
Riding an e-bike is clearly better for the planet than driving, but I've argued elsewhere that the primary benefit of bicycling or walking is likely for personal health, not for the planet as a whole. Making some guesstimates, if the human body is ~20% efficient at converting food calories to "work", and if food production/distribution which usually depends on fossil fuels is ~20% efficient from farm to table, then traditional bicycling may be less efficient in terms of greenhouse gas impact than driving an EV. I don't think anyone is going to "save the planet" by bicycling, but they'll generally be healthier.

You can´t be serious about that... If you´re in a 2000 kg car 2 m wide you think you´ll might have a chance of having less CO2 emissions than on a bike, total weight with driver of about 1/20 of that? My Model 3 has used about 160 Wh/km, cycling at say 210W power output would be about 30 km/h so 2min/km, so I get 210W*(1/30)h/km = 7 Wh/km. You obviously still have to correct for slower speeds on the one hand, but on the other hand think about the CO2 output for producing the car which is quite a lot. For a car Teslas are quite efficient, but unless you load cars with a lot of stuff and people they are totally ineffcient compared to muscle powered means of transportation and use way too much space.
 
Fact Checking, you have outdone yourself with this post. Good grief you put a lot of time into it. Alas, I think your theory is extremely far-fetched and quite unlikely to be true.

Couldn't disagree more. I think it's really sweet of you to give these trolls the benefit of the doubt. But there's really no doubt. Condoning evil actions because maybe the perpetrators are simply ignorant and stupid is not helpful. Such behavior must be stopped with decisive protest and action. The few who are actually ignorant and stupid will perhaps learn to behave better in the future. The many who are evil will get the retribution they so richly deserve.

Yeah, I'm fed up.
 
I never want to drive a gas car again.
For many of us, buying an EV (or anticipating the purchase of an EV) sets off a chain reaction. There's the realization that it actually is feasible to get off fossil fuels. The next logical step is to install solar panels and maybe a home battery system. This is part of why it ultimately makes good sense for Tesla to be in the home solar/battery business. I'd like to see the Tesla brand in the HVAC space as well, and Elon hinted in a tweet a while back that they may go there. It'll be a big win to replace gas furnaces with electric, air sourced heat pump systems. From an investment standpoint, we can say that Tesla has a good deal of "optionality".
 
East Coast braces for tighter gas supplies with key refinery set to close permanently

U.S. vehicle sales seen falling in June to ‘resilient’ level as automakers rev up incentives

From the latter:

Sales at GM GM, +1.26% are likely to drop 7% year-on-year, and fall 8% at FordF, +0.51% the analysts said. GM pickup sales “could be challenged” in terms of volume, but “profit should look strong,” they said.

Ford reports monthly sales, but GM and Tesla Inc. TSLA, -0.25% report quarterly sales. Tesla shares have recovered some ground in recent sessions on expectations that second-quarter sales could be a banner three months for the Silicon Valley car maker.
 
You can´t be serious about that... If you´re in a 2000 kg car 2 m wide you think you´ll might have a chance of having less CO2 emissions than on a bike, total weight with driver of about 1/20 of that? My Model 3 has used about 160 Wh/km, cycling at say 210W power output would be about 30 km/h so 2min/km, so I get 210W*(1/30)h/km = 7 Wh/km. You obviously still have to correct for slower speeds on the one hand, but on the other hand think about the CO2 output for producing the car which is quite a lot. For a car Teslas are quite efficient, but unless you load cars with a lot of stuff and people they are totally ineffcient compared to muscle powered means of transportation and use way too much space.

I guarantee you this conversation will go way off topic, and I suggest you let it slide. But I'd also suggest that you look up g CO2/kcal for foods (make up a sample diet - X% meat (~4-20g/kcal), Y% vegetables (~2-30g/kcal), Z% carbs (~0,5-2,5g/kcal), and work out a net g CO2/kcal), multiply that to the ~40kcal/km for biking and ~65kcal/km for walking, and compare that to the <400g/kWh average grid emissions in Europe times ~0,16kWh/km for a Model 3. Then optionally factor in additional passengers, or optionally power the vehicle by rooftop solar for a vastly lower g/kWh.

Doing the math is left as an exercise for the reader, ideally conducted while looking at satellite images of the worth showing how large a percentage of the planet's entire wild habitat has been eliminated for the sole purpose of generating calories (vs. solar and wind which would be the size of a pinprick on the map), and the vast dead zones and places where rivers no longer reach the ocean that have resulted from said agriculture and livestock rearing.
 
OT

You can´t be serious about that... If you´re in a 2000 kg car 2 m wide you think you´ll might have a chance of having less CO2 emissions than on a bike, total weight with driver of about 1/20 of that? My Model 3 has used about 160 Wh/km, cycling at say 210W power output would be about 30 km/h so 2min/km, so I get 210W*(1/30)h/km = 7 Wh/km. You obviously still have to correct for slower speeds on the one hand, but on the other hand think about the CO2 output for producing the car which is quite a lot. For a car Teslas are quite efficient, but unless you load cars with a lot of stuff and people they are totally ineffcient compared to muscle powered means of transportation and use way too much space.
Oh, I'm serious. Don't get me wrong, though - I'm an avid bicyclist and, on a good day, I enjoy riding my bike more than driving a car, even a Tesla. The exercise is great.

But let's have a look at your numbers. Let's say you indeed use 7 Wh at the pedals to cycle one km, or 160 Wh to drive your Model 3 one km. If you roughly assume the body is 20% efficient at applying food energy to "work" at the pedals, and that farming and food distribution are 20% efficient, that's 4% efficiency overall. Your 7 Wh actually translates to 175 Wh of input. This is in the same very rough ballpark as the Model 3. (The production efficiency of the 3 is another matter, but if the car lasts for something like 500,000 km, then that's negligible overall.) If you used solar energy to charge the Model 3 and you ate a farm-raised beef hamburger to "fuel" your cycling, then the Model 3 wins by a landslide. Or, if you charged the 3 with coal-sourced electricity and you ate a meal from your home garden, then cycling clearly wins.

Driving has other downsides, like the extensive use of land for roads, the congestion, and so on. But it's also helpful in bad weather and for carrying stuff.

Why do I bother to make this point? Because I feel that we as humans do a lot of patting ourselves on the back for supposedly being "green" while failing to tackle major, structural issues. For example, I'm aware of self-proclaimed environmentalists who are proud of all of the composting they do, while simultaneously taking frequent vacations halfway around the world that involve massive consumption of jet fuel. Etc., etc.
 
Heck, the day before Q3 closed last year Musk e-mailed that Tesla might possibly show a profit if everyone pitched in and gave an all-out effort. They made 300m! I'm sure that last 24 hours put them in the black, lol.

If he believed an email like this could goose sales by an extra couple thousand cars he'd send it even if 95k was already in the bag.

The converse is probably also true: Elon made end of quarter push efforts in Q1'19 as well, and it didn't work out so well.

Regarding Q2, one possible negative point is the delay of SR+ deliveries in Europe. That's possibly a few thousand units missing. Are there reports of anyone in Europe already having taken delivery of an SR+?
 
tesla nearly hit 227 before my meeting and now it’s approaching 218 a couple hours later. the second time this happened in last week. not to mention other manipulations.

how much longer are we supposed to sit here like fools and let the WS machine piss down our backs and tell us its raining?

And the spring compresses further....
 
The converse is probably also true: Elon made end of quarter push efforts in Q1'19 as well, and it didn't work out so well.

Regarding Q2, one possible negative point is the delay of SR+ deliveries in Europe. That's possibly a few thousand units missing. Are there reports of anyone in Europe already having taken delivery of an SR+?
Wasn't Q1 primary a down quarter due to only 100kWh pack available for S/X?
 
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Regarding Q2, one possible negative point is the delay of SR+ deliveries in Europe. That's possibly a few thousand units missing. Are there reports of anyone in Europe already having taken delivery of an SR+?

The Benelux subsection keeps a meticulous list. They have 11 deliveries recorded so far, 22 people with appointments for the coming days, 7 with a VIN only and 15 orders with no VIN and no appointment. For those with no VIN, no appointment : 4 ordered in April, 6 in May and 5 in June. The big hang up in the Netherlands is a white interior on an SR+. Everything else is available for delivery.

Correction Edit : 13 deliveries so far, 20 with an appointment, 7 with VIN and 17 orders with no VIN no appointment.
 
tesla nearly hit 227 before my meeting and now it’s approaching 218 a couple hours later. the second time this happened in last week. not to mention other manipulations.

how much longer are we supposed to sit here like fools and let the WS machine piss down our backs and tell us its raining?
Quite a while longer, I'd wager.
 
The converse is probably also true: Elon made end of quarter push efforts in Q1'19 as well, and it didn't work out so well.

Regarding Q2, one possible negative point is the delay of SR+ deliveries in Europe. That's possibly a few thousand units missing. Are there reports of anyone in Europe already having taken delivery of an SR+?

You are from Austria, you should be familiar with this forum Warteraum Model 3 Standard Range Plus • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde
 
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