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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I agree with Tesla not being niche.

But.....

Tesla does not sell more than the three German brands COMBINED. BMW alone sold 50% more than Tesla in 2018. Though, if EM follows through on his word, Tesla will outsell just one of these three brands this year.
Sorry, I think that was only for a single quarter. No? Just passenger cars.
 
I wonder if this technique might be used to analyze markets?

This! Tesla should link its FSD vehicles to the market, and let the car owners make some real $$$.

We've heard the 2nd Gen Tesla FSD computer will be capable of "on-chip" AI training/learning (realtime w. no need for an external data center). Link it to the market with ultra-fast, low-latency internet (Starlink) and you've got the HFT engine of the future. And its a swarm which talks to each other...

This is NOT your father's OLDSMOBILE!

wwtt20[1].jpg


Think Terminator 2029, Judgement Day writ large. Its AJ's worst nightmare visited upon GS. Burn, baby, burn.

Cheers!
 
With July 4th party invites in the air I’m reminded of previous pain: TSLA has been absolutely clobbered just before/after July 4th trading in the last two years:

2018: Down ~$32 7/2-7/3 2018
2017: Down ~$52 7/3-7/6 2017

Context is everything. In both of those years, the stock entered July 4th on substantial, months-long upswings. In 2017, the stock opened at $244 in mid-March and opened at $370 on July 3rd. In 2018, the stock opened at $256 on April 2nd and opened at $360 on July 2nd.

We do not have a similar upswing this year; all we can point to is an open of $185 on June 3rd and a likely open of $220 on July 1st.

EDIT: Furthermore, I think the stock's movement in early July will be predicated almost entirely on the P&D report and what inferences can be made from it with regard to sales margins, as well as how successfully bears can spin the numbers (if they are in tweener territory -- say 85k-90k) in conjunction with an attack on the price.
 
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Is Tesla about to report record sales? This analyst says no

“(We) expect a miss on Q2 deliveries/earnings and continue to see FY delivery midpoint guidance miss by ~10%,” the analysts, led by Arndt Ellinghorst, said in a note.


Tesla shares likely moved into a new range between $150-$250 range, versus a previous range between $250 and $375, since “dreams” of 750,000 to 1 million unit sales by early 2020s are now “lost,” the analysts said.

...

Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report the delivery of 91,000 vehicles, including 74,100 Model 3 sedans and a nearly even split between sales of Model S and Model X units.
 
This! Tesla should link its FSD vehicles to the market, and let the car owners make some real $$$.

We've heard the 2nd Gen Tesla FSD computer will be capable of "on-chip" AI training/learning (realtime w. no need for an external data center). Link it to the market with ultra-fast, low-latency internet (Starlink) and you've got the HFT engine of the future. And its a swarm which talks to each other...

This is NOT your father's OLDSMOBILE!

View attachment 423919

Think Terminator 2029, Judgement Day writ large. Its AJ's worst nightmare visited upon GS. Burn, baby, burn.

Cheers!
Not even possible in 10 years from now...
 
Great time to buy then.

... but I have no powder. So based on that 4th of July pattern, I'm thinking I sell a few today and buy back a little extra next week. Seems the stock is holding until further notice (hell of a fight though eh?).

What's really nuts is that the strategic difference between 90K units vs 91K in Q2 has no bearing on the company's success FOR ME, IMHO. So my game strategy is to obtain as many shares of TSLA as possible and hold as usual, while taking advantage of the bear cycles.

Part of my confidence does come from recent software upgrades to EAP. On the surface, we see Beach Buggy and dimming screen features, but I'm noticing a much bigger change in how this car drives itself. After having 3 updates in ~ month, with each iteration of EAP comes a more solid feel and increased confidence on my part. Only thing missing is speed of decisions and scope of data which gets addressed in AP3 + Time.

Not to make this all about EAP (and keeping on topic), suffice to say my confidence level of Tesla is rising faster than the stock price... by a full order magnitude. I stopped thinking about the car's brain as a machine and really do believe that naked left turns are also in the bag and the car actually is thinking on it's own.

But I have to admit we're at the fate of a lot of corrupt businesses (and journalists apparently). So there's this sick feeling that, despite all success indicators here, this will go on for years. But that doesn't change my position on Tesla. Like many I'm sure, I have never used a stop-loss on this stock as that's a great way to miss the pop.
 
That's literally why GM decided to sell its Opel Division, and to leave Europe entirely. They know they can't compete, whereas in the U.S. they have substantial influence over CO2 emissions regulations / carbon pricing (ie: the expectation they can *deal* with the problem):

Dietz, Thomas, et al. "Political influences on greenhouse gas emissions from US states." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112.27 (2015): 8254-8259.
But that is their opportunity to actually build cars people and countries want. I assume all dealers are non-manufacturer owned as here in the US. How do they not corrupt government decisions and policy like they do here?
 
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Context is everything. In both of those years, the stock entered July 4th on substantial, months-long upswings. In 2017, the stock opened at $244 in mid-March and opened at $370 on July 3rd. In 2018, the stock opened at $256 on April 2nd and opened at $360 on July 2nd.

We do not have a similar upswing this year; all we can point to is an open of $185 on June 3rd and a likely open of $220 on July 1st.

Yes, I’d be surprised to see more than a head fake in the down direction from the big players over the holiday given the context you mention. I wouldn’t be surprised by some fireworks though.

The price action over the last several months seems intended to shake off the weak longs, scare off new money, and take in more of the stupid shorts, IMHO.

Maybe it’s a way to pave the way to bring in TSLA to repackage to Mainstreet with the blessing of the, ah, folks on Wall Street as Tesla matures?

Hard to know when that might happen. The players that be might well now be trying to gauge whether they’ve shaken all they can out of the barrel while keeping a weather eye out for any rabbits that Elon might be pulling out of his various hats in the next few months.

Not advice.
 
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Sorry, I think that was only for a single quarter. No? Just passenger cars.

The Model 3 sold more than any other passenger car model in the US. But, in total the S/X/3 sold about the same number as BMWs passenger cars, not even including X3 to X6 lineup, which was about 100k more. Globally, Tesla sold less than 10% of BMW Group in 2018. So, still a long way to go.
Just stating facts.
 
... but I have no powder. So based on that 4th of July pattern, I'm thinking I sell a few today and buy back a little extra next week. Seems the stock is holding until further notice (hell of a fight though eh?).

Yes, a lack of excess black powder has probably stopped us all at one point, haha. And I suppose it also determines how much black powder do you mean when you say you have a lack of it? Enough for one share? Ten? A hundred?

I know my paydays are the first and fifteenth of each month, and so the possible 4th drop may be helpful for me to save a bit. xD But maybe not.
 
Again, I recommend this read, particularly to @ZachShahan

It’s by a Pulitzer Prize winner who has been inside the likes of the NY Times in the past.


The Day That TV News Died | BillMoyers.com

I like that piece. It exposes that the "liberal media" claim is a gross misrepresentation. In truth, the media is corporate media and their goals generally do not align with liberal principles. The lie of "liberal media" was developed in a somewhat successful effort to hide their corporate biases and goals.
 
Lol, this is the same dolt that said this:

"Ellinghorst Says Demand for Luxury Cars Is Back"
-- Arndt Ellinghorst, Mar 23, 2012


He was partially correct: The segment-leading Tesla Model S was introduced June 22.
Notice how in 2012, (2 mths before the Model S intro), he was an analyst at Credit Suisse?

And now in 2019, he's an analyst at Evercore ISI? WHOOPS! Analyst turnover! :eek:

LOL!
 
Yes, a lack of excess black powder has probably stopped us all at one point, haha. And I suppose it also determines how much black powder do you mean when you say you have a lack of it? Enough for one share? Ten? A hundred?

I know my paydays are the first and fifteenth of each month, and so the possible 4th drop may be helpful for me to save a bit. xD But maybe not.

When I'm in doubt of selling, I just pick a bit higher price. 50@$223.5 was my sell order. We'll see...
I still have shares I bought a few as high as $380 during the whole $420 private thing. That's why it's so hard to sell, (but it would round my holdings down to exactly 1,000 shares, and I like even numbers).
 
Not even possible in 10 years from now...

"We choose to go to the Moon" is the famous tagline of a speech delivered by John F. Kennedy at Rice Stadium in Houston, Texas on September 12, 1962. Kennedy's goal was realized on July 20, 1969, just 6.86 yrs later.

Tesla brought the first FSD chip to market in just 3 years. Tell me again what is possible to accomplish in 10 years, 10 years from now.