Not understanding why analysts believe Q3 and 4 will see less demand for Tesla’s. The tax incentive is overplayed, gas isn’t going to 99 cents, and China + multiple other territories are soon to be more active. Tesla slow rolled demand by not advertising. The more people that drive them the more other people see them the more access people get to Tesla’s the more they want them.
But we’ll see maybe some of these analyst know something different
It's not so much about whether or not there will be less demand, but more about whether the growth in financial metrics will be sufficient to maintain the high multiples that "Mr. Market" currently uses in valuing TSLA on those metrics. The YoY quarterly comparables with 3Q18 and 4Q18 will be a high hurdle for historical growth rates, regardless if the comparisons are against Revenue, Gross Margin or Net Income.
As Tesla resolves the cell and M3 production constraints while delivering all M3 versions into international markets, it also works off backlog (and deposits) that accumulated since the reveal at the end of March 2016. (Deepak may have said disclosure of current reservations would not be "meaningful," but some inquiring minds might find them helpful--not just about M3 but also Y and Semi's)
The growth in demand for higher-margined Model Ss and Xs has also seemed to have flattened and possibly declined. Raven versions may revive demand to a degree, but the M3 just seems to be a better value all around for those who would previously consider the S or X as their only EV alternative. Sales of vehicles produced in GF3 and of the model Y are also major components in the continuing growth narrative, but neither will be much of a factor in 2H19 and better information about both should inform trading decisions as 2019 progresses.
If you are in the Tasha Keeney/Ark Investments camp--no worries. The next eighteen months are relatively inconsequential since it's mainly about autonomy and 2025. Just buy LEAP lotto tickets and ignore the near term.
If you are more in the camp that is as much interested in the preservation of their invested capital as in the potential huge returns on that investment, pay close attention to what is disclosed at the forthcoming Battery and Powertrain Investor Day. Hopefully some penetrating questions might be asked, such as;
- How realistic is the $0.07/Kw-hr for Mega-Chargers, and what are the assumptions for calculating that price? How many sites for mega-charges have been acquired and where?
- Why is the foot-print of GF-1 only 30% complete? Was the original foot-print just a mis-calculated SWAG or has build-out of the remaining 70% been deferred to use capital for more productive alternatives?
- When will the remainder of the roof in the existing six sections of GF-1 be out-fitted with solar panels?
- Where will the semi and pick-up trucks be produced? Starting when? Have any of the freight/trucking companies who placed deposits .
No analysts knows the future, but some are more focused on the quantitative, near-term and others on the qualitative future. Trade/invest accordingly.
