Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hiroshiy]

Another big problem with American cars in Japan is size in particular: they are (way) too large, and they are also gas guzzlers, which is a problem in Japan that has $4+ gallon-equivent gas prices, which are comparable to European gasoline prices.

But the Model 3's form factor has been designed with Japan in mind I think:

Watch Tesla Model 3 Enter Automated Conveyor Parking System​

... and the relative rarity of foreign brands in Japan could make it a very, very popular choice of a premium car. BMW and Mercedes are selling 60k-60k units there per year after all.

Another plus is the frugal minimalist interior of the Model 3, which IMHO matches Japanese cultural norms and expectations better than the typically rather Rococo German car interior.

I mean, what rhymes better with:

​

This:

or this:

View attachment 425918​

?

So I concur with @Thekiwi that Japan could be a positive surprise, and I'm very curious how Model 3 demand is going to evolve in Japan. Maybe @hiroshiy can offer some insight?

So @Fact Checking called...

It will take time for Tesla to penetrate into Japanese market. Hope we can change; but market is very different from other countries. However as iPhone penetration was successful and now in Tokyo over 80% of people are using iPhones and Japan became number 1 country in terms of Apple revenue.
Here, some facts to consider:
- Japanese car market is relatively small. In Tokyo employees are NOT allowed to commute by car, and many young people don't have driver license. It's simply not important in our life.
- 50% of Japanese car market is for Kei cars; very small but cheap, big inside.
Honda N-BOX 公式情報ページ
This is the TOP seller in Japanese market. See how four adults can sit, and even accepts car seats. In some narrow roads only these sized cars can go through.
- Apartment is 50% overall Japan so these people have issues with charging. Also in Tokyo I guess more than 90% in apartments. No charging laws.
- Mechanical parking. Old buildings only allow <1750mm cars. Model 3 won't fit. It will fit the biggest, widest type of mechanical parking but they are probably like <20%. Also some mechanical parkings are like robots, so can't have charging.
mechanical - 機械式駐車場 - Google Search
Complex robot parking -

Recently one of the city mayors (482k population) leased one Model X and one Model S, and virtually all TV news covered that negatively, that they should buy domestic cars, too expensive, etc. So yes there will be some nationalism too, but as we've seen Rolexes, iPhones, Microsoft Office, Amazon, Facebook and Twitter, it is relatively smaller issue here I guess.

 

[printf42]

OT
Anyone know what’s happening to NIO stock now?
Up 13% so far with double the average daily volume already.

 

[Zaxxon]

So regarding the new default simple white paint, it's not happening yet.
We seem to have forgotten about this.

"Starting next month, Tesla will charge $1000 for color black (same price as silver)"
Elon Musk on Twitter

Just checked, black is still included with no extra charge.
Punctuality still needs improving.
View attachment 426010

Next (this) month still has a lot of runway in it.

 

[EVNow]

Reminder : After Q1 disastrous ER, TSLA floor was 231. It only went down because of Musk email along with bad macros.

 

[Intl Professor]

might we reasonably expect Neroden's corresponding dump tomorrow or Friday?

Markets closed for July 4th. Trump holiday.

 

[schonelucht]

You are a suspicious (AND funny) man . Maybe you should stop using Paul De Zan's mass block list on twitter

I stand corrected. (Not using any blocklist btw)

 

[MissAutobahn]

 

[Causalien]

So @Fact Checking called...

It will take time for Tesla to penetrate into Japanese market. Hope we can change; but market is very different from other countries. However as iPhone penetration was successful and now in Tokyo over 80% of people are using iPhones and Japan became number 1 country in terms of Apple revenue.
Here, some facts to consider:
- Japanese car market is relatively small. In Tokyo employees are NOT allowed to commute by car, and many young people don't have driver license. It's simply not important in our life.
- 50% of Japanese car market is for Kei cars; very small but cheap, big inside.
Honda N-BOX 公式情報ページ
This is the TOP seller in Japanese market. See how four adults can sit, and even accepts car seats. In some narrow roads only these sized cars can go through.
- Apartment is 50% overall Japan so these people have issues with charging. Also in Tokyo I guess more than 90% in apartments. No charging laws.
- Mechanical parking. Old buildings only allow <1750mm cars. Model 3 won't fit. It will fit the biggest, widest type of mechanical parking but they are probably like <20%. Also some mechanical parkings are like robots, so can't have charging.
mechanical - 機械式駐車場 - Google Search
Complex robot parking -

Recently one of the city mayors (482k population) leased one Model X and one Model S, and virtually all TV news covered that negatively, that they should buy domestic cars, too expensive, etc. So yes there will be some nationalism too, but as we've seen Rolexes, iPhones, Microsoft Office, Amazon, Facebook and Twitter, it is relatively smaller issue here I guess.

It'll be a lotharder for tsla to penetrate Japan than iphone.

Japanese are notorious for country loyalty. And even the model 3 is too long of a car in Japan. The majority of cars there looks squished in the front to save space.

And let's face it. Public transport is cheaper and gets to your destination faster.

They do respect good tech though and are less likely to be swayed by false advertising being more tech savvy.

 

[viridi]

The shorts and the media that supports them are unrelenting. Simply amazing that they somehow put a negative spin on every bit of good news from Tesla. CNBC's Phil LeBeau has been on CNBC often today, and most of his focus has been negative - "still need 200,000 deliveries for the rest of the year to meet guidance" (said with a doubting, cynical tone); "analysts not impressed" (gives some examples); "up to WELL over $240 today, but is now giving that back" (again with the LeBeau tone), etc. One of the few positive things I heard this a.m. was LeBeau did mention that the supposed competition is not materializing. Still, although not shocking, it is frustrating to see the media putting a negative spin on what is basically Elon and the company proving that the lack of demand narrative was false.

 

[Nocturnal]

It'll be a lotharder for tsla to penetrate Japan than iphone.

Japanese are notorious for country loyalty. And even the model 3 is too long of a car in Japan. The majority of cars there looks squished in the front to save space.

And let's face it. Public transport is cheaper and gets to your destination faster.

They do respect good tech though and are less likely to be swayed by false advertising being more tech savvy.

Throw Final Fantasy 10 and some anime into TeslaTari and it's a done deal.

 

[ggr]

Are the big money folks starting to dip their toes back in or are they waiting for earnings?

Big money people don't trade this week.

 

[sparcs]

It'll be a lotharder for tsla to penetrate Japan than iphone.

Japanese are notorious for country loyalty. And even the model 3 is too long of a car in Japan. The majority of cars there looks squished in the front to save space.

And let's face it. Public transport is cheaper and gets to your destination faster.

They do respect good tech though and are less likely to be swayed by false advertising being more tech savvy.

mercedes and bmw sell pretty well in japan. They aren't exactly known for small vehicles. Trying to find info on which models they sell well in japan.

 

[ZeApelido]

Another FYI, the wave is back and see cars heading to port for international shipping the last 2 days...

 

[Nocturnal]

The fact that the order backlog has increased is my favorite bit of news here. Later this year the world's largest EV market will be realistically open for model 3 sales, that's crazy. FSD aside things are looking really good for Tesla.

 

[PeterJA]

That's how long the fossils have to switch to making EVs: 8 years.

I think automajors have less time to live, and their first priority should be not EVs... but autonomy.

Imagine it is 4 years from now and you want to buy a car. You can choose an autonomous-capable Tesla (which not only pays for itself but pays you tens of thousands of dollars per year from Tesla Network) or... anything else. Who will buy anything else, ICE or EV?

A few folks will -- old-timers set in their ways, collectors, enthusiasts -- but not enough to sustain the automajors at their current size. And non-autonomous cars will be worthless except as collectors items, toys or scrap, and hard to repair because the manufacturers went bankrupt.

Many folks -- the young, the busy, the non-enthusiasts who just want transportation -- won't buy cars at all, just rides in robotaxis. This will help bankrupt unprepared automajors with thin profit margins.

So the automajors must sell autonomous cars, right? That will be difficult when their autonomy is lidar-based with expensive ugly sensors poking out the car roof. So automajors will build robotaxi fleets that they own, to sustain themselves on ride-hailing profits while they desperately try to copy Tesla before Tesla bankrupts them. Good luck with that.

Again I recommend Julian Cox's new book (available at Apple Books) for detailed analysis of this coming auto-apocalypse, as well as other info such as the huge danger and deception of "the hydrogen economy."

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Just saw an article from Cheddar in my stock feed that managed to get both the YoY deliveries increase and the increase over their previous record quarter(Q4 ‘18) wrong. I’ll let everyone take a wild stab at the direction of both errors.

 

[AlMc]

Big money people don't trade this week.

Absolutely correct...which is why we are not up more today. July 4th week has been a bad week for longs over the last two years (at least) so the better than expected P and D report helped this year.

Also, will reiterate that all the talk of $400 'soon' is nonsense from longs just as it is nonsense that shorts are betting that TSLA goes to zero.
The shorts have big money industries and the media on their side so don't 'invest' (gamble?) that we are going to get a big short squeeze. Longs have the disruptor. Disruption does not happen quickly when taking on so many entrenched industries all at once.

Longs should stick to stock with perhaps a small part of your money in options IF you feel the need for leverage. Time frame..Think like ARK...5 years.

<gets off soap box>

 

[Green Pete]

I think automajors have less time to live, and their first priority should be not EVs... but autonomy.

Imagine it is 4 years from now and you want to buy a car. You can choose an autonomous-capable Tesla (which not only pays for itself but pays you tens of thousands of dollars per year from Tesla Network) or... anything else. Who will buy anything else, ICE or EV?

A few folks will -- old-timers set in their ways, collectors, enthusiasts -- but not enough to sustain the automajors at their current size. And non-autonomous cars will be worthless except as collectors items, toys or scrap, and hard to repair because the manufacturers went bankrupt.

Many folks -- the young, the busy, the non-enthusiasts who just want transportation -- won't buy cars at all, just rides in robotaxis. This will help bankrupt unprepared automajors with thin profit margins.

So the automajors must sell autonomous cars, right? That will be difficult when their autonomy is lidar-based with expensive ugly sensors poking out the car roof. So automajors will build robotaxi fleets that they own, to sustain themselves on ride-hailing profits while they desperately try to copy Tesla before Tesla bankrupts them. Good luck with that.

Again I recommend Julian Cox's new book (available at Apple Books) for detailed analysis of this coming auto-apocalypse, as well as other info such as the huge danger and deception of "the hydrogen economy."

I'm waiting for the ICE dive to happen so I can buy an old beater truck to have on hand. But I expect to pay very little for it because of the above points.

Side note, why aren't Hertz and other car rental companies buying every Tesla they can get their hands on. The car rental business in an era of Robo Taxis seems very likely to collapse. Partnering with Tesla by owning lots of their Robo Taxis and taking maintenance/charging infrastructure stations for them so they can collect Robo Taxi cash seems like a no brainer.

 

[jerry33]

As long as it is not for profit you would be protected by fair use. They would probably send a letter but it would be safely ignored.

The DMCA pretty much eliminated most "fair use".

 

[wipster]

Markets closed for July 4th. Trump holiday.

He asked the question yesterday, not today.