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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This board can really go overboard at times. Tesla has said Model Y will start shipping in Q4 of 2020, not 2019, and that they are internally hoping for an earlier launch in Q3. All speculation over the last few days that they might start building Model Y this year is - no disrespect meant - baseless and utterly unrealistic.

I believe they said volume production by late 2020, not start of production.
 
Good news is good. Bad news is bad.

Correlation is not causation.

It is possible that shorts time an attack on the SP in order to mask the positive effect of good news, but it does not mean that good news causes the stock to fall. To promote the idea that TSLA is negatively correlated to good news is fuddy psychobabble. Ultimately the shorts have to buy back the share sold short. They can mask and delay truth, but they cannot negate.

/rant

I guess you can't detect sarcasm/S
 
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gut_fauna.png
The source : Gut Fauna

And the alt-text : I know it seems unpleasant, but of the two ways we typically transfer them, I promise this is the one you want.
 
The last time TSLA was at $240 was May 10th.
No, the intraday high on July 3rd was $241.57 (reached soon after the Open). According to NASDAQ, the 1-min VWAP was above $240.00 only for two minutes on July 3rd, 09:31 and 09:33

TSLA.chart.2019-07-03.png


Alternatively today's high was $240.50 reached around 12:40 EDT, followed by a selloff.

But the good news here is TSLA is trending up, and will likely at least hold the price peak reached after the P&D Report going into the Earnings Letter and Conference Call.

Positive FCF should lock in the SP, while Profits should send the SP up (expect Shortez to lie about both).

Cheers!
 
I am in camp of believing in true Base model 3 is yet to be released.

Not sure what you define “true base” to be. But I think they will have a configurable base $35k (without having to go through hoops) within next 6-12 months.
Tesla has a history of changing prices and/or options that offset effective price increases due to decrease in the tax credit. Not sure whether intentional or coincidental, though.

Edit: Tesla car prices continue to decrease over time. For example, a highly optioned P100D S/X right now cost about the same as a lightly optioned 90D S/X did less than three years ago. Unlike other car brands, and just like any major household tech product, I’ve learned that being one of the first to buy a new Tesla model is much more expensive than even waiting a year or so. Also, look at how much the price of the model 3 dropped since they first came out. P3D is now >$10K cheaper than in the beginning. I saw someone here bought a ~$150K pre-Raven new inventory car for $80K after inventory and ludicrous discounts during the recent end of the quarter rush.
 
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The point is that Tesla and everyone else is still in the lab trying different things and under that environment pressing deadlines that are basically arbitrary can be defeating to the team.

I've seen no evidence that Elon does that, just several outsiders asserting that he does.

BTW...This is very different than landing rockets on barges...also very hard, but actually much easier than FSD.

I agree. But my point was not: he landed rockets, therefore Full Self-Driving.

My point is Elon does not make wild promises, contrary to FUD-based conventional wisdom. If you listen to his complete quotes, not just soundbites out of context, he qualifies his estimates and says when he is uncertain. He did not know that a Model X supplier would fail to deliver their contracted falcon-wing door mechanism. He did not expect Tesla's dispute with Mobileye, or that Panasonic would fail to deliver their contracted 35 Gwh of battery cells. But I remember him saying in an earnings call (paraphrasing): We're targeting July 1 and see no obstacles right now. There probably will be some, but If I knew them, I would address them.

So his estimated timelines were off by what... a year? But Model X is on the road. Model 3 is above 6k produced per week and headed higher according to Jerome. Elon slept on the factory floor until he got it done.

About reusable rockets, he said: I don't know if we can do it, but we're going to try.

About FSD, he says: I know we can do it.

ARK Invest thinks Elon's timeline for FSD is off by a year, based on his history with timelines. That sounds reasonable to me. Ten years or never does not.
 
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