Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

TSLA popped up on WSJ's "Selling on Strength" page today.

Money Flows: Selling on Strength - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Hummm, that could be a good way. I recently converted small portion of my TSLA into 100 AMZN, and was thinking about converting back, but this is a decent alternative to do both. My brokerage insists though on time difference in settlement btw. shares vs options, so I would have to lose exposure for one day to achieve this... It's a Canadian Bank owned brokerage, you know, those banks that never had to be bailed and with insanely strict rules and strong risk management policies...

Glad you found it informative. I plan to roll my amzn spread depending on amzn ER on Jan 31st, which is the day after tsla. This will allow me to go long again in the future. For tax reasons I would only do this in a SEP-IRA.

My tsla straddle has a risk of 5k to make 10k. Worse case I will own tsla bw 250/270$

Are you familiar with TD Ameritrade and their ToS trading platform ? Brokerage is based in Canada. Their margin requirements are pretty competitive compared to big money center banks. Options settlement is overnight and stock is T+1

 

[SOULPEDL]

So my question is, which will come first: Tesla (or third parties) opening establishments near Superchargers to cater to today’s typical Tesla owner, or does the total-cost-of-ownership of an M3 go low enough that most future M3 owners are regular patrons of the current proximal establishments?

Funny, I actually looked at a Google map of a location in Az where a new Supercharger was going to be built. It's across from a tiny church in the middle of nowhere (but close to main road). I was thinking a richer person than I could buy something near that corner on the cheap because I doubt anyone nearby even knows what's coming or what a Tesla is. Then I'd put a store or something next to it and cater directly to them like sell windmills or something... right? Look at this location! You'd be the only thing happening in town. Salad and Go - guaranteed a win!

 

[S3XY]

Seen at the top of my Robinhood news: Is Tesla the Next Great Marijuana Stock? -- The Motley Fool

Of course, Betteridge's law of headlines says that the answer is no, but it does point out addressable market that's being newly created for Tesla Energy's Powerpacks.

Straight to $420!

 

[Fact Checking]

Uh oh. Not good news.

Robinhood is free. Hence its data is sold. Someone will eventually farm these ppl's tsla holdings.

Are you worried about those shares being lent out to shorts?

It's not a problem anymore: recent history has shown that the shortz can borrow up to ~40m TSLA shares before the borrowing rates go up.

Right now the short interest is 25 million shares, shrinking. Millions of TSLA shares can be shorted ultra cheap, but there's no new shorts willing to increase their exposure.

Robinhood increasing the TSLA shortable shares pool from 40 million to 41 million has zero impact.

 

[omarsultan]

Note that at 5k Model 3’s/week(recently it looks like they’re closer to 6-7k/week) and 100k Model S/X per year, that’s 360k cars a year. They’re reaching and exceeding the most NUMMI ever did.

Fair point.

 

[Fact Checking]

Fair point.

Also, in addition to what @MarcusMaximus said, the real metric of manufacturing output is not units per year assembled at NUMMI, but value per year.

The highest volume cars that NUMMI produced were $15k-$20k low end Toyota Corollas. Totally not comparable to the $59k-$150k vehicles assembled by Tesla...

Tesla is already generating more revenue at Fremont per year than a million Corollas would have under NUMMI - Tesla is already at around 5x the peak output NUMMI ever managed to reach...

 

[brian45011]

They also won’t be doing the tire rotation since they now charge $88 for it(seems odd, since I was under the impression this was included for life of the tires when I got them installed there).

Services & Other GM % has been stubbornly negative in the 20s. Discount Tire is your friend.

 

[neroden]

In others news the "wall" is starting to develop some cracks.
Six GOP senators vote to end shutdown without wall funding

I've been whip-counting on this for a while, but we should probably take this to the politics thread. IIRC, Collins, Gardner, and Murkowski were expected since they said they would last week; Alexander, Romney, and Isakson are new. Now we need to see how long it takes them to decide to kill the filibuster in order to reopen the government. (Or 8 more Rs could break ranks.)

 

[neroden]

Aaaand I take back a lot of the positivity there. Just got another call. The tire I was told was repairable(and waited for 2 months for the repair kit to come in for) was apparently suddenly deemed unrepairable, and they went ahead and replaced the tire without bothering to ask me if that was ok or even tell me they were doing it. The call was to collect payment for that.

Had I known the tire wasn’t repairable, I would have purchased it elsewhere and just had them do the installation, since the same tire generally costs less and comes with a warranty.

EDIT: Bonus: By going ahead and replacing the tire without bothering to tell me, they also voided the warranty that would have covered most of the replacement cost.

Tesla Communications, still not happening. :-(

 

[neroden]

I wish TSA had a union and decided to strike and demand a back pay. The shutdown would be over so much faster. Or call back sick. We're only at 10%. If they did >50% that could be enough too.

They *do* have a union, but there's a federal law criminalizing strikes by federal employees. That said, I'm not sure whether "not showing up because you aren't being paid and the government is violating your contract" actually counts as a strike.

 

[Carl Raymond]

OT:



I'm totally stealing that.

M.E.G.A.: Make Earth Great Again

I think it’s perfect for a tee shirt, on four lines, with the first letter of each word a different colour or font.

Please do spread it. I stole it from a placard used in a student protest that was inspired by Greta Thunberg.

 

[neroden]

Done! Really good idea. (Kinda scary entering my Acct info to prove how many shares I have. But how else would they filter the noise.)

Rrrgh. Yeah, I would not enter my account info. Not safe.

 

[EVDRVN]

Funny, I actually looked at a Google map of a location in Az where a new Supercharger was going to be built. It's across from a tiny church in the middle of nowhere (but close to main road). I was thinking a richer person than I could buy something near that corner on the cheap because I doubt anyone nearby even knows what's coming or what a Tesla is. Then I'd put a store or something next to it and cater directly to them like sell windmills or something... right? Look at this location! You'd be the only thing happening in town. Salad and Go - guaranteed a win!

]

Those dots are usually up to a mike or more off course very time.

 

[neroden]

Service vs growth is actually a contender question in the Shareholder SAY contest. Likely on topic then especially as it was worded on SAY.

Sean M.'s question, yes, which is at the top of the list.

(You can sign in and look at the questions without actually linking a brokerage account.)
Say

I'd vote for it with my shares (which are more than the total voted for that question already), but there's simply no way I'm linking any of my brokerage account details; I simply don't trust say.com, who I only heard of this week, with the most financially important information I have.

I would appreciate it if people whose brokerage accounts only have "loseable" amounts of money would step in and vote since I can't.

 

[neroden]

Tesla is constrained in many states in terms of how many store and service centers the franchise auto dealership cartel, er, I mean, the state law, allows in that state, that is, if the cartel, oops I mean the law, even allows Tesla to open even one store/service location in the entire state. I’m almost positive Tesla’s limited in NY state.

Limited in stores, unlimited in service centers. I corrected this yesterday already?

 

[abasile]

...and massively disagree with this in the case of North Dakota at least.

If your rural gap is at the "tail end" of a trip, no problem. If it's minor -- you just need a top-up in between Superchargers -- no problem. If it's right in the middle of Interstate 94 and the gap is 750 miles long, you have a PROBLEM.

I think the challenge in your case is that you'd like to be able to drive to a destination in North Dakota. I agree that the current Supercharger network is inadequate for that! However, it seems that the vast majority of people who might drive their Teslas across the northern part of the US could just as easily use I-90 rather than I-94. Superchargers in North Dakota would primarily help people driving to/from North Dakota, eastern Montana, northern Minnesota, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. They clearly are needed. Given a limited Supercharger budget, though, I think it's understandable that this hasn't been Tesla's highest priority. I do hope that Tesla can make some progress at least.

There are other charging options in California. Chademo and CCS support would alleviate a lot of the strain.

I agree that CHAdeMO or CCS support would be helpful, but only to a limited degree. Most CHAdeMO/CCS stations in California have only a couple of fast chargers, they often have their own contention issues, and reliability can be a problem. Overall, the Supercharger network offers the best user experience for fast charging, and at least for now, it needs to stay that way. We have a CHAdeMO adapter for our Model S, and we've only used the adapter once since we bought it in 2016.

 

[Singer3000]

I agree, and Elon has even said he agrees in the long term, but maybe this quarter isn't the one in which to do it.

The deferred revenue effect from 2 weeks worth of production on a ship at quarter end can be completely negated by increasing quarterly production by 15%. Which if we use Factchecking’s “85% of VINs issued rule”, is spookily enough the implied increase in production in Q1 vs Q4 (yet alone vs Q3). Not that I’d bet based upon VINs but in this context, forecasts of Q1 being borderline breakeven are for my money a little pessimistic.

 

[UncaNed]

Or we could let the fumes spread and even hurt our own workers who live downwind.

That's an American tradition.

 

[TradingInvest]

Hummm, that could be a good way. I recently converted small portion of my TSLA into 100 AMZN, and was thinking about converting back, but this is a decent alternative to do both. My brokerage insists though on time difference in settlement btw. shares vs options, so I would have to lose exposure for one day to achieve this... It's a Canadian Bank owned brokerage, you know, those banks that never had to be bailed and with insanely strict rules and strong risk management policies...

It's good to have some diversification. Even a small amount of index holding can help when things go bad.