Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

He posted a link with an actual quote that stated Tesla was receiving pushback from expanding into the northern part of the state. Just because it doesn’t appear there’s nothing preventing a SC, doesn’t mean there isn’t. We’re dealing with crooks. There is no logical reason for Tesla to not expand there, unless they are being prevented in some way.

I have to agree with this. Don't make assumptions. It is not illegal for Tesla to sell cars directly in MO but the MO dealer association manages to get judges to make rulings to get our stores closed every now and then before they are overturned in higher courts.

 

[dhrivnak]

NUMMI record was 424k cars in one year.

To be fair I heard NUMI was mostly an assembly factory. Tesla seems to be making a LOT of the parts and sub assemblies there as well.

 

[EVNow]

NUMMI painted 300k+ cars back when California had Republican governors.

Things have changed dramatically since then.

Lets bring back asbestos, leaded paint, leaded toys in the same spirit.

 

[Off Shore]

I actually disagree with this. While it’s VERY inconvenient for some very small set of people, that set of people is, well, VERY small. How many people are likely to drive through some random bit of North Dakota in a Tesla?

It's not a random bit, it's an East-West corridor, which isn't presently available for want of less than half a dozen stations (and four connector stations would serve fine). Same for a missing single station near Ft. Smith, AK which is about to cost me 350 miles and 2/3 of a day's drive to get back across the country next week.

 

[EVNow]

Democrats control New York State Governor's House, State Senate, and State Assembly.

Democrats can spare a few votes while completely ignoring Republicans and still pass legislation.

The party doesn't matter. Dealers heavily donate to state reps and carry a lot of weight on most states. In almost every state they have tried to sneak in restrictions overnight. In some states like WA, they were found out and got defeated - in some not.

BTW, for people who don't know, before this year, some Dems in NY actually caucused with Republicans, basically overturning people's votes. Most of them were defeated in November.

 

[anthonyj]

Short interest dropped by 800k shares on Wednesday according to Papafox. That’s insane. Can’t imagine the covering for today.

 

[S3XY]

My super-optimistic prediction is Tesla will begin production of Model Y, in Fremont, in Q3

Agreed. You are super-optimistic.

 

[X Fan]

Democrats control New York State Governor's House, State Senate, and State Assembly.

Democrats can spare a few votes while completely ignoring Republicans and still pass legislation.

View attachment 371557

View attachment 371558

Yup and the dealers grease whichever party is in charge.

Btw: Cuomo has had plenty of time to cajole the legislative class but there has been crickets.....

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think it’s perfect for a tee shirt, on four lines, with the first letter of each word a different colour or font.

Please do spread it. I stole it from a placard used in a student protest that was inspired by Greta Thunberg.

Oh so OT, but worth it. I'm sharing this with my local LD18 group for sure, thanks!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Exactly. It also wouldn't hurt Tesla sales to have a few service loaner cars sitting out front all the time.

There's an idea, recommend this option instead of bashing Tesla. I've always made out like a bandit (not my dog in this case) by being friendly, like offering a solution and showing empathy for their growing pains here.

Just an advice.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Oh, I finally got enough votes on SAY to see the shares - these are the shares that others own. Here I thought that the people on top were owners of 10,000 shares - LOL. Instead, people are voting their shares. Thanks if you were one of them.

 

[oneday]

Just an advice.

I’m not sure that’s allowed around here.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OK on topic now... Tesla Solar NOT in 1/2 of Arizona. Most sunshine anywhere - such a waste!

SRP is my supplier of electrons, privately owned. Tesla has pending litigation against SRP who is limiting Tesla's ability to make a valid sales pitch. SRP doesn't allow off grid; some % must be bought and fees are regardless. Does anyone have an update on what's happening? My roof is aging and after TSLA pops sometime this year, I really want start over with those new Tesla Tiles.

Seriously... you know that call you get from Tesla regarding "are you also interested in solar"? It ends with "I'm with SRP" then "Sorry, we can't help you."

 

[omarsultan]

I don't see this as an issue. Of course they will solve this problem. It's easy compared to the other problems they've been solving. I believe the only reason it has been left for so long is because it's perceived as easy to fix when necessary. And Tesla only works on things that are necessary, since they have so many things on their plate.

But I think it's getting to the point where everybody at Tesla, even Elon, knows it's necessary. So it will be done.

Disagree.

First of all, service is expensive to fix as you need people and you need to drive culture change. Hiring people is expensive and the last two rounds of layoffs have moved the company in the opposite direction. Second, you need to propagate a customer-centric culture. If you are adding 1 or 2 people at a time, its easy to indoctrinate new folks into the "Tesla Way". Even if you dig up the opex to go hire a 1,000 folks for delivery, support and service, you still need to culturally inculcate them before they start making a positive impact, which will take time and leadership. Finally, and perhaps the hardest challenge is escaping the reputation for poor customer service. Even after you hire folks and get them trained, it will take a while to repair a damaged reputation.

This is not an engineering problem where you can throw money and resources at it to compress the timeframe--some of this will move at it own pace. It took a number of years to get to this point--it would be optimistic to assume a snap of the fingers to get back out.

If I were a competitor, I would position against Tesla by positioning comparable technology and pair that with brand equity and superior service experience. Yes, yes, I know that Tesla has better EV technology, but by the the Marketing machines of VAG, Toyota, etc are done, I doubt the typical buyer who is unwilling to do their own research will know that.

 

[omarsultan]

NUMMI painted 300k+ cars back when California had Republican governors.

Things have changed dramatically since then.

Emission regulations were so stringent body shops were saying they would no longer be able to paint cars solid black, only dark brownish black. Then the State relented a bit. There are reasons why all other car factories left a State that buys 2M+ cars per year.

Tesla has to paint under the most stringent emission regulations while having to meet cost, durability and aesthetic targets.

OK, OK, maybe they do get to talk about painting cars some more.

 

[Causalien]

Are you worried about those shares being lent out to shorts?

It's not a problem anymore: recent history has shown that the shortz can borrow up to ~40m TSLA shares before the borrowing rates go up.

Right now the short interest is 25 million shares, shrinking. Millions of TSLA shares can be shorted ultra cheap, but there's no new shorts willing to increase their exposure.

Robinhood increasing the TSLA shortable shares pool from 40 million to 41 million has zero impact.

Not lent out. But from my own tracking. Whenver robinhood users pile onto something. They eventually get harvested and stopped out. My guess is a hedge fund will go hunt their stop loss orders. Or go margin hunting.

Reddit's /r/wsb has a large amount of robinhood users. They are not the most responaible margin and option users. Yet they use both and leverged to the max on one directional bets. Perfect for a stop hunting HFT.

 

[anthonyj]

Not lent out. But from my own tracking. Whenver robinhood users pile onto something. They eventually get harvested and stopped out. My guess is a hedge fund will go hunt their stop loss orders. Or go margin hunting.

Reddit's /r/wsb has a large amount of robinhood users. They are not the most responaible margin and option users. Yet they use both and leverged to the max on one directional bets. Perfect for a stop hunting HFT.

Millennial investors are loading up on Tesla ahead of its crucial earnings

This was October

 

[Buckminster]

FC - when you say this is the most important post - I take note.
Firstly, I haven't previously weighed in on this - partly because I am a super bull and prefer to talk the stock up than down. I have said it now..
Secondly, happy to setup 2 new threads?
1) Communication issues related to Service
2) Non-communication Service issues
Does this cover it? Both in Investor section to keep the horde away? Do we really need one on non-service related service issues?

Some ideas:

1) More buttons on the app to request specific service ranger. One for s/w related, bodywork related etc. Call assistants can then be specialists. Ranger / vehicle can be specialist.
2) Ideally combined with 1), Tesla could suggest (via app) when they can come to you to minimise ranger travel
3) Tesla know the location of the car and it's usual schedule. They should be able to predict that carrying out the work at your place of work is good for all.
4) Request upfront call out charge for ranger call out - refundable if genuine and in warranty. Make ranger a premium service that you mostly get for free.
5) Building on 1), could you have buttons on the app that stem from detailed questionnaire etc. Why can't I have a ranger turn up to try to fix my nearside wing mirror and if not fixable replace with a part he is carrying based on me telling the software directly.

In short, Tesla should do what they know best - software solutions to fix real problems combined with the genius idea of a ranger. Human interaction is not desirable IMO anyway. Turn the threat into an opportunity. Attack is the best form of defence. If they can make this work, Tesla have yet another "not a moat". This and more will be required at some stage - Tesla Network vehicle should be able to diagnose fault and drive to a safe place to be fixed by a robot eventually.

Didn't get any feedback on this so I haven't setup a thread. Reference the tire probs - do the rangers need to be given Judge Dredd authority to arbitrate on warranty decisions in the field?

Elon's Twitter use has been very nuanced lately. In the past, this was a sign of good things to come as far as I observed. We'll hopefully see so soon.

aka dull. I'm not complaining (much) though....

 

[Bet TSLA]

I believe with the Model Y the focus will be on low-risk, low-capex ramp-up with flexible, modular assembly lines and approaches and only money they already have will be spent. This creates a much lower stress and in the end significantly less expensive ramp-up process as well. The obvious question: is such a design even possible - but if it is even remotely possible according to he rules of physics, industry traditions be damned, I'd expect Elon to try it.

Elon can't help himself. Low-risk is a fine idea, but that means boring business as usual, doing things in proven ways that you've done before. This simply won't happen. Elon will try something new and better, as you describe in fact. Modular! Flexible! Different! This will, of course, result in problem after problem and the ramp will take a long time.

It's so predictable. I love the end result, but the pain to get there is barely endurable.

 

[Buckminster]

OT

I am always impressed with my wonderful continental colleague's (soon to be EU scum...) ability to type the queen's English better than I. So much so, I feel the pressure to fit my language to the norm here. You will all have a lot to answer for when I start calling cars "autos" back here in Blighty! Tires not tyres - the list goes on...