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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Demand issues?
Production slow down?
Andrei B @AndreiBuluThis week many Tesla shortsellers are talking about Tesla production slowdowns. Really? This is what I saw this morning:
Andrei B on Twitter
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Very big. Nobody is working and nobody can get work done because all the supplies you need cannot be purchased.
It's your one time of the year, for unskilled laborers, to see your family on a fram out west.
So to have this happen. It means an order direct from the government. Otherwise you'd have a mutiny on your hands.
Perhaps I'm wrong, but I'm feeling a bit green today. 
Yesterday showed an upslope in the absence of news; opportunistic buying seems to have become a more powerful force than fear selling.
Absent bad news, and on neutral or positive macros, I have a suspicion that we might see the same thing again - perhaps even amplified. But time will tell.
Of course, if it goes on long enough, people trying to cash out on a "not ridiculously low" SP before the ER might become a factor.
Yesterday showed an upslope in the absence of news; opportunistic buying seems to have become a more powerful force than fear selling.
Absent bad news, and on neutral or positive macros, I have a suspicion that we might see the same thing again - perhaps even amplified. But time will tell.
Of course, if it goes on long enough, people trying to cash out on a "not ridiculously low" SP before the ER might become a factor.
Taycan confirmed to have 90kWh pack, 22kW AC charger, no hitch, optional heat pump.
Fred Alert.
350kW would be a nearly 4C charge rate if that's 90kWh-actual rather than 90kWh-usable. Fry those cells... (The cells have been previously stated to be 270Wh/kg, so they're using an energy-dense chemistry (like Tesla), not a power-dense one.) That is, if you can actually find a place to charge at 350kW (most of the stations Ionity is building aren't actually 350kW; they're designed to be upgraded to 350kW at a later date).
I'd love to use the now-known pack size to estimate efficiency, but we don't know whether the "400km/250mi range" A) will hold in reality, B) whether that's NEDC or WLTP, and C) whether that's 90kWh actual or usable. If it's 90kWh-usable, and it does hold (for some cycle), that'd be 225Wh/km / 360Wh/mi. Even for EPA-combined that'd be a real guzzler, let alone WLTP, let alone NEDC. I had thought that Taycan was going to be the first mainstream automaker's EV built with an understanding of the importance of efficiency. But apparently, nope...
(Unless usable capacity is way less than 90kWh)
Add to the above the already-known $92,5k entry price, 600hp, and a 0-100kph of 3,5s.
Fred Alert.
350kW would be a nearly 4C charge rate if that's 90kWh-actual rather than 90kWh-usable. Fry those cells... (The cells have been previously stated to be 270Wh/kg, so they're using an energy-dense chemistry (like Tesla), not a power-dense one.) That is, if you can actually find a place to charge at 350kW (most of the stations Ionity is building aren't actually 350kW; they're designed to be upgraded to 350kW at a later date).
I'd love to use the now-known pack size to estimate efficiency, but we don't know whether the "400km/250mi range" A) will hold in reality, B) whether that's NEDC or WLTP, and C) whether that's 90kWh actual or usable. If it's 90kWh-usable, and it does hold (for some cycle), that'd be 225Wh/km / 360Wh/mi. Even for EPA-combined that'd be a real guzzler, let alone WLTP, let alone NEDC. I had thought that Taycan was going to be the first mainstream automaker's EV built with an understanding of the importance of efficiency. But apparently, nope...
(Unless usable capacity is way less than 90kWh)
Add to the above the already-known $92,5k entry price, 600hp, and a 0-100kph of 3,5s.
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SebastianR
Active Member
On topic:
I think this is an underappreciated point: we do have a number of hard-core believers who like Tesla and thus invest. I do think we have a number of folks who got a car and then bought shares afterwards.
Guess what just happened? Right, we have at some 150k additional people that drive Tesla over the past 6 months. They are more likely to be the Robinhood type of investors and I guess they did what others did in 2012/2013/2014 - they bought shares.
I do think we have not seen the full effect of this. Especially if people are on the fence and want to see if Q4 was really profitable, need time / money to invest (think 401k and other semi-structured investments etc.)
In short: I think there is long-term positive effect on TSLA for every Tesla Car / Powerwall installed. We seem to see that in more retail investors buying the stock.
OT: I'm German (haven't lived there for decades though) and I must say I'm ashamed of all the regulatory obstructions Germany did to EVs. It is appalling. What's worse: these days someone found >100 Doctors specialized in respiratory diseases who testify that air pollution is not as much connected to health risks and thus that Diesel emissions should not be regulated. I wish I was joking. I wish this was not true (anybody see the parallel to Climate Change, the 50s campaign of tobacco companies who found doctors that said that smoking was healthy...?). But here we are...
OT: There are many things that are wrong with the EU. But there are things that I love about the EU (aside from the fact that my personal life incl. my marriage, my kids upbringing etc. would not work without the EU removing red tape between countries and giving my family rights we would otherwise not have). And one of them is the legislation that requires all banks and financial institutions to have defined interfaces/APIs so that you can allow fin-techs like Say to connect safely (e.g. read only) to accounts you use without you being forced to give away all control to your accounts.
Aside from that: I agree. I would never enter my log-in to my bank/brokerage on a third party website. Shame we don't have these secure interfaces everywhere.
I think this is an underappreciated point: we do have a number of hard-core believers who like Tesla and thus invest. I do think we have a number of folks who got a car and then bought shares afterwards.
Guess what just happened? Right, we have at some 150k additional people that drive Tesla over the past 6 months. They are more likely to be the Robinhood type of investors and I guess they did what others did in 2012/2013/2014 - they bought shares.
I do think we have not seen the full effect of this. Especially if people are on the fence and want to see if Q4 was really profitable, need time / money to invest (think 401k and other semi-structured investments etc.)
In short: I think there is long-term positive effect on TSLA for every Tesla Car / Powerwall installed. We seem to see that in more retail investors buying the stock.
OT: I'm German (haven't lived there for decades though) and I must say I'm ashamed of all the regulatory obstructions Germany did to EVs. It is appalling. What's worse: these days someone found >100 Doctors specialized in respiratory diseases who testify that air pollution is not as much connected to health risks and thus that Diesel emissions should not be regulated. I wish I was joking. I wish this was not true (anybody see the parallel to Climate Change, the 50s campaign of tobacco companies who found doctors that said that smoking was healthy...?). But here we are...
OT: There are many things that are wrong with the EU. But there are things that I love about the EU (aside from the fact that my personal life incl. my marriage, my kids upbringing etc. would not work without the EU removing red tape between countries and giving my family rights we would otherwise not have). And one of them is the legislation that requires all banks and financial institutions to have defined interfaces/APIs so that you can allow fin-techs like Say to connect safely (e.g. read only) to accounts you use without you being forced to give away all control to your accounts.
Aside from that: I agree. I would never enter my log-in to my bank/brokerage on a third party website. Shame we don't have these secure interfaces everywhere.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
1) Least expensive Model 3 and Least expensive Model Y will be made in Shanghai. Premium Model 3/Y will be imported from US.
2) Sees (Chinese?) demand as challenge in 2019 and early 2020 but picking up later in 2020.
Extremely unusual!
All of our suppliers and all of our customers (private and state owned) are gone for 10 days this year, without exception.
Mars ☰mperor
Member
Mars ☰mperor
Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Pezpunk
Active Member
that rendering seems a little improbable to me at first glance ... one tiny road into it, and no parking lot? i mean i know Chinese don't commute to work like Americans, but still...
The same will happen with petrol cars very soon. The collapse of the ICE will be sooner than most people think because of this. Who would buy a new ICE vehicle when its resale value will be near zero in 5 yrs? The number one constraint will be availability of EV's. We need GF4,5 & 6 asap.
Pezpunk
Active Member
the whole auto industry -- both on the car manufacturing side, and on the fuel side -- has been operating for so long on such low margins (due to extreme competitiveness, and the natural calcification that occurs in lots of huge, ancient corporations) that Tesla's and EV's disruption is going to knock them deep into the red, with real danger of total collapse.
it's a good and necessary step forward, but there's going to be a lot of pain for a lot of people.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Simplistic render from GF1.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Note that ICE sales are collapsing in China largely unrelated to the trade war, while the EV market is exploding in size, due to the Chinese government aggressively supporting the EV market to improve air quality, and to reduce China's dependence on oil:
New Car Sales In China Fell 5.8% In 2018 | CleanTechnica
China Amazes With 180,000 Plug-In Electric Car Sales In December
Note that even the CleanTechnica article about 2018 has not highlighted that ICE sales are literally collapsing: if we take out EV sales from all car sale then in November ICE sales collapsed -14% year-over-year, while EV sales grew 59% year-over-year, taking over 7% of all new car sales:
China Has Record Electric Car Sales Month, BYD Tang #1 — #CleanTechnica Report | CleanTechnica
6.3% Plug-In Vehicle Market Share In China! — #CleanTechnica Electric Car Sales Report | CleanTechnica
6.3% Plug-In Vehicle Market Share In China! — #CleanTechnica Electric Car Sales Report | CleanTechnica
It's absolutely brutal, and ICE makers simply cannot convert their production facilities this fast, without running into losses.
Over 7% of all new cars are EVs, ICE sales down -14%. I.e. there's about -7% of market loss to EVs, while another -7% market loss to car purchasers who are deferring their car purchase.
Hyundai will have to learn to actually earn a profit on its EVs.
https://premium.goauto.com.au/low-margin-huge-potential-for-ioniq-hyundai/
https://premium.goauto.com.au/low-margin-huge-potential-for-ioniq-hyundai/
Hahahahah....I love the optimism and photoshop skills....
Also: IMHO blue collar workers will not be driving to work there. They will either live on site, or be bussed in.
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